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Some Good News - Dubnyk

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04-02-2007, 12:19 AM
  #1
Asiaoil
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Some Good News - Dubnyk

OK so I am finally pleased with what Dubnyk is doing - his line is:

41GP 23-10-4-3 2SO .921SP (3rd in league) 2.57GAA

A .920 SP is a line in the sand that I want to see him stay above - the best goalies do it - and Dubnyk needs to maintain that level of consistently solid play. So far it's been a solid rookie year for the kid and he had a stellar .927 SP in 10 games during March. He just needs to finish strong and move on to the AHL next season.

Just for reference - Pogge has a .894SP and Schwarz has a .897SP this year in the AHL - both guys are young but those numbers don't exactly shout future elite goalie (Kipper was .924 in his first AHL season, Miller was .920, and Lehtonen was .926 for example). As for our guy JDD - sitting at .906 after his 3rd year in the league - he isnt anything special folks........

....and just for the hell of it - Toivonen put up a .921 and a .932 in his only 2 AHL seasons and he was very young at the time. Talent like that does not just disappear and I think this kid could be a steal for someone if they acquire him in trade. I would REALLY like us to take a run at getting him this summer - think BOS would bite if we offered Schremp and JDD? Or how about Lupul for Toivonen straight up?

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04-02-2007, 12:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
OK so I am finally pleased with what Dubnyk is doing - his line is:

41GP 23-10-4-3 2SO .921SP (3rd in league) 2.57GAA

A .920 SP is a line in the sand that I want to see him stay above - the best goalies do it - and Dubnyk needs to maintain that level of consistently solid play. So far it's been a solid rookie year for the kid and he had a stellar .927 SP in 10 games during March. He just needs to finish strong and move on to the AHL next season.

Just for reference - Pogge has a .894SP and Schwarz has a .897SP this year in the AHL - both guys are young but those numbers don't exactly shout future elite goalie (Kipper was .924 in his first AHL season, Miller was .920, and Lehtonen was .926 for example). As for our guy JDD - sitting at .906 after his 3rd year in the league - he isnt anything special folks........

....and just for the hell of it - Toivonen put up a .921 and a .932 in his only 2 AHL seasons and he was very young at the time. Talent like that does not just disappear and I think this kid could be a steal for someone if they acquire him in trade. I would REALLY like us to take a run at getting him this summer - think BOS would bite if we offered Schremp and JDD?
I don't think Boston does that deal. But I agree that .920 would be a nice target for DD. Hopefully, he carries his above average play into the AHL and satisfies MC's 21 year old above average goalie rule.

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04-02-2007, 12:23 AM
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The question is....how does a .921 sv% in the ECHL translate to the AHL? The next question is...who gets the majority of games between DD and JDD next season?
Time will tell.

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04-02-2007, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
....and just for the hell of it - Toivonen put up a .921 and a .932 in his only 2 AHL seasons and he was very young at the time. Talent like that does not just disappear and I think this kid could be a steal for someone if they acquire him in trade. I would REALLY like us to take a run at getting him this summer - think BOS would bite if we offered Schremp and JDD? Or how about Lupul for Toivonen straight up?
I'm terrible at trade value but somehow I doubt it. A roster player has to be involved imo.

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04-02-2007, 12:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
Toivonen put up a .921 and a .932 in his only 2 AHL seasons and he was very young at the time. Talent like that does not just disappear and I think this kid could be a steal for someone if they acquire him in trade. I would REALLY like us to take a run at getting him this summer - think BOS would bite if we offered Schremp and JDD? Or how about Lupul for Toivonen straight up?
How about we also offer our three firsts for him as well. I would like to get him but what you are asking is something that you give up for an ELITE PROSPECT which right now Hannu is sure in the hell not. He lost his job to a journeyman goalie that could not cut it here many many years ago. They then pick up a Detriot reject as the back up over him as well brought in Rask who is supose to be their future.

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04-02-2007, 12:39 AM
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I can't wait until next season when we have a real farm team to play our goalies in.

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04-02-2007, 12:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guymez View Post
The question is....how does a .921 sv% in the ECHL translate to the AHL? The next question is...who gets the majority of games between DD and JDD next season?
Time will tell.
Very few first rounders go to the ECHL - so making up some sort of an equivilancy factor is tough. Dubnyk was only their because of our situation in the AHL - but still - a .920 seems to be something the good goalies can do whereever they are - and that's the number I expect from DD next season.

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04-02-2007, 12:47 AM
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Originally Posted by gr8haluschak View Post
How about we also offer our three firsts for him as well. I would like to get him but what you are asking is something that you give up for an ELITE PROSPECT which right now Hannu is sure in the hell not. He lost his job to a journeyman goalie that could not cut it here many many years ago. They then pick up a Detriot reject as the back up over him as well brought in Rask who is supose to be their future.
Well one can make the case that Toivonen has done stuff that neither Schremp of JDD has been able to - in the NHL to boot. He's elite talent but something went very wrong this year - whether it's a fatal flaw I can't say - but Kipper went through pretty much the same thing in SJS.

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04-02-2007, 12:50 AM
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Dubnyk has the tools - he's just a little too inconsistent (has been his whole career).

He'll have to work on that - otherwise, we'll see another case of Markannen (who will make the tough saves, let in the occasional weak goal).
I agree with your consistentcy comment - but if you have a SP of .920 or better you are not making many mistakes period - if you put up a .927 like DD did in March you are pretty much bulletproof.

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04-02-2007, 12:52 AM
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Before it happens;)

because I think Rask is coming over and there's no way the B's can move Thomas contract, let's just say that I brought up HT to Edm over at LT's board a good 4 weeks ago. And let's also remember I was a fan of Vokoun before he established himself in Nsh AND last year when the Kings cut Avery I said that he was playing tough min in LA and was doing a good job of it and that he was worth a shot.

Of course....I always liked Kevin Weeks and Anson Carter and Bertuzzi as well

In any case good to see DD above that .920 cutline. I know he's a kid but it's the E for frigssakes so if he's going to be anything he had to have a great year down there

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04-02-2007, 12:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
Well one can make the case that Toivonen has done stuff that neither Schremp of JDD has been able to - in the NHL to boot. He's elite talent but something went very wrong this year - whether it's a fatal flaw I can't say - but Kipper went through pretty much the same thing in SJS.
How was JDD EVER given a chance or Schremp ? and No kipper did not go through the same thing. Touvenen was given the best chance he (or any other aspiring NHL goalie) was ever going to get to be a starting goalie in the NHL and could not do it. Elite goalies do that (lundquist and Lehtonen come to mind), then he was given the chance to learn at the NHL level by being a back up and he once again did not deliver, like Harding has done. The only thing he would be is a reclemation project.

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04-02-2007, 01:06 AM
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
JDD is in his 3rd AHL season. Really not much progress.

Schremp, good guy, putting up OK (not elite) numbers - the question really becomes, will he make a bigger impact than will a solid goaltender?

I don't see that happening.

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.
How is Hannu a solid goalie ? Once again if you drop 4 spots on you team depth chart behind two journeyman goalies, when not more than a year ago he was their next starting goalie then there is a problem

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04-02-2007, 01:13 AM
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I could see the B's giving up Toivonen. I wonder if they'd try to sell Glen Murray's contract for a young RW in return in the same trade though.

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04-02-2007, 01:18 AM
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The B's need dmen

you can look at their list of forwards and it's a rearguard they'll want for Hannu.

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04-02-2007, 01:19 AM
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Murray + Toivenen for Schremp, JDD, Lupul.

I could live with that.
You know I was thinking the exact same thing... replacing Schremp with a high pick.

There's the potential both ways to bite each team in the ***. It's quite eerie how similar Lupul and Hannu are. Rocking the scene in their first real NHL seasons and struggling mightily in their next.

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04-02-2007, 01:38 AM
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Young goalies struggle. Just look at MAF in Pittsburgh - always had the talent, but it took a while for him to become the number 1 goalie....

As for Hannu...

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...id%5B%5D=62643

You don't put up a SP of .921, .932 in the AHL without dominating. Then he went on to put a .914 SP in his rookie NHL season.

Yeah, this year has been brutal for him. 16 GP in the NHL, .870 SV%, and .905 in the AHL - but that's young goalie for you. He has a high ceiling, and giving up JDD and Schremp really isn't much....
You talk about looking at Fluery - he played on the worst team in the NHL, hell that team would make the Oilers look good. As well yeah you are right young goalies struggle all of them do no doubt - Fleury, Lundqvist, Lehtonen, and Harding the difference is THEY ALL rebounded and did not let their struggles prolong like Touvenen did. As well how is his ceiling soo much higher than JDD's ? I laugh at how people sit here and crap all over our prospects yet they LOOOOVE guys who have shown the can't cut it or so far have shown they can't cut it. Once again tell me how a guy who has dropped FOUR SPOTS on his teams depth chart when he had NO ONE to compete against is that great of a goalie. Oh yeah as for your you don't put up those save % numbers without dominating well I don't know what is dominating for you is but being 5th and tied for 12th is save percentage is NOT dominating.


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04-02-2007, 01:40 AM
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I don't think it would be wise to trade one of our top prospects for a goalie whose bombed in the NHL and dropped behind a couple of journeymen in the depth charts. Shremp? Sure he has his issues and struggled during this season but at least there has been some progress and he's getting there. Ditching him for a reclaimation project would be almost as silly as Buffalo trading anything to acquire the human disaster that is Ty Conklin.

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04-02-2007, 02:10 AM
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Wow are people ever under-valuing Toivonen. I'm not up on all of his issues this season - but to put up .932 SP as a 20 year old in the AHL and a .914 in the NHL as a 21 year old rookie is just flat out elite - there is no other way to describe it. He has clearly sucked this year - but that happens with young goalies - and to call him a reclamation project is overstating it in the extreme. He has already done so much more than Schremp or especially JDD has in his young career it's not funny and if we could steal him low I'd be all over that.

As for throwing in Murray - you know he would help one hell of a lot more than Lupul but he has 2 years left on a $4 million deal. JDD and Lupul for Murray and Toivonen? Yeah that could work for me

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04-02-2007, 02:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
Wow are people ever under-valuing Toivonen. I'm not up on all of his issues this season - but to put up .932 SP as a 20 year old in the AHL and a .914 in the NHL as a 21 year old rookie is just flat out elite - there is no other way to describe it. He has clearly sucked this year - but that happens with young goalies - and to call him a reclamation project is overstating it in the extreme. He has already done so much more than Schremp or especially JDD has in his young career it's not funny and if we could steal him low I'd be all over that.

I am underrating him, give me a break. In his first year in the AHL he did NOTHING to show he was an elite goalie, especially compared to some of his other "classmates". HArding, Niittymaki, Garon, Danis all had save just under him in 04-05, so are they all elite goalies as well. You talk about him putting up great rookie numbers in the NHL, the guy played 20 games which was 15th among rookie goalies, once agian that is not "elite".

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04-02-2007, 02:48 AM
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I have never been a Dubnyk fan, but I must say I raised my eyebrows to those stats this year. Maybe there is more to him than I previously saw.

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04-02-2007, 04:19 AM
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Asiaoil
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I have never been a Dubnyk fan, but I must say I raised my eyebrows to those stats this year. Maybe there is more to him than I previously saw.
Hey Miz - long time no see - kinda miss my old nemisis

Like I said last year - Kamloops was unbelievably bad while DD was around and gave up a monstrous amount of PP opportunities (especially 5 on 3). A goalie can only do so much in that context but you should still have a decent SP in spite of it all (and DD did - not great but decent). The CHL doesnt provide ES SP - but some very very crude tinkering on my part led me to believe that Dubnyk was on par or maybe even a touch better at ES last year than Pogge (and Pogge's mediocre performance this season in the AHL is no particular surprise to me).

DD needs to make the next step in 07-08 and put up a .920 SP or better in the AHL - then there will be more confirmation of the indications of talent that are there this season.

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04-02-2007, 09:20 AM
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Didn't hannu suffer an injury last year near the end of the season?

How long-term was it, and how much did it affect him coming into this season?

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04-02-2007, 10:15 AM
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Didn't hannu suffer an injury last year near the end of the season?

How long-term was it, and how much did it affect him coming into this season?
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/...ame=nhl-bruins

15-Apr-06: Missed the last 41 games of the regular season (ankle injury).
11-Apr-06: Ankle injury, remainder of the regular season.
06-Jan-06: Ankle injury, sidelined indefinitely.
05-Jan-06: Ankle injury, left Thursday's game.



Couldn't tell you how long term it is, but it must have been a fairly serious injury to sideline him for half of the season.

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04-02-2007, 12:18 PM
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Well Asia, I don't think I'm undervaluing Toivanen. He's had injury problems, and his numbers are headed in exactly the wrong direction - down. An 87% save percentage is Ty Conklinesque in its levels of suckage. I'm not sure why we'd want to give up an asset to acquire that. Furthermore, a goalie whose trending towards bust, for a project that's actually begining to put up numbers seems like a lousy notion of asset management to me.

If you could get him for someone like Winchester whom your just looking to unload, then fine take a flier on Toivanen. However, I wouldn't give up much of any sort of value to acquire him.

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04-02-2007, 12:24 PM
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Good for DD, I hope he gets a decent number of starts in the A next year.

On the Toivonen front, I'd be willing to trade for him as backup to Roli, but frankly, given the risk factor, I am not willing to offer up Schremp in a trade.

JDD and Winch/Anaheim's 2nd I would do though

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