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Some Good News - Dubnyk

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Old
04-02-2007, 03:41 PM
  #26
Magnus
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
Wow are people ever under-valuing Toivonen. I'm not up on all of his issues this season - but to put up .932 SP as a 20 year old in the AHL and a .914 in the NHL as a 21 year old rookie is just flat out elite - there is no other way to describe it. He has clearly sucked this year - but that happens with young goalies - and to call him a reclamation project is overstating it in the extreme. He has already done so much more than Schremp or especially JDD has in his young career it's not funny and if we could steal him low I'd be all over that.

As for throwing in Murray - you know he would help one hell of a lot more than Lupul but he has 2 years left on a $4 million deal. JDD and Lupul for Murray and Toivonen? Yeah that could work for me
I think people are severely over-valuing Toivonen, or at least his market value. Some things to take into consideration:

1. Boston has never been good at handling their young goaltenders.

2. Boston seems to give up on players rather easily and make bizzare transactions. Case in point: does the Thorton trade make any sense at all?

3. They gave up on Brad Boyes, who was having a bad year, after scoring 26 goals and 69 points as a rookie. All they got back was Dennis Wideman, a soft defenseman with questionable offensive skills.

4. They gave up on Milan Jurcina, a young defenseman who had a good rookie season with them last year. While not outstanding in any way, many feel he has decent upside. All they got in return was a 4th round pick.

5. Toivonen's season this year was putrid. His value can't really get much lower.

6. Boston already has Thomas under contract and a really good prospect in Tuukka Rask coming soon. There's also talk that Boston will go after one of the UFA goalies this summer. That leaves no room for Toivonen.

7. There's speculation that Boston won't even tender Toivonen a qualifying offer. While that remains to be seen, it doesn't say much about his value to the team.

I would guess that Toivonen could be had right now for very little. A 3rd round pick or a minor prospect. I would be very surprised to see any team offering any more than that. A player like Lupul or even Schremp is a pipe dream.

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04-02-2007, 04:33 PM
  #27
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I imagine Boston will be pushing hard for Giguere or Backstrom in free agency or Mason, Toskala/Nabokov, Fernanedez on the trade market. I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to move Toivonen before July first. Edmonton would actually be a prime trading partner.

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04-02-2007, 06:40 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by PunjabiOil View Post
Real small sample size for that SP though.
Same with the 914 the year before.

Thing is... I'd like to get him too, but NHL GM's have seen this story play out over and over... highly touted goalie spirals out of control under the pressure he puts on his own shoulders. It's a position based on confidence, and when the trends are down, you'd never pay a decent asset in exchange. The risk is too great.

Don't get me wrong... he'll get traded and he may well recover to lead a great career, but I don't think anyone will offer up something as valuable as Schremp and a lesser goalie prospect.

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04-02-2007, 06:43 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Magnus View Post
I think people are severely over-valuing Toivonen, or at least his market value. Some things to take into consideration:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Agreed

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Old
04-02-2007, 06:49 PM
  #30
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Lupul + Horcoff + Winchester + ANA 1st round pick
for
Bergeron + Toivonen + prospect

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Old
04-02-2007, 09:25 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by bucks_oil View Post
Same with the 914 the year before.

Thing is... I'd like to get him too, but NHL GM's have seen this story play out over and over... highly touted goalie spirals out of control under the pressure he puts on his own shoulders. It's a position based on confidence, and when the trends are down, you'd never pay a decent asset in exchange. The risk is too great.

Don't get me wrong... he'll get traded and he may well recover to lead a great career, but I don't think anyone will offer up something as valuable as Schremp and a lesser goalie prospect.

If it's takes less to get him I'm all over that - but try find a 21 year old goalie who put up a .932 SP in an AHL season with over 50 starts? That SP number is stunning and better than Kipper's in his first AHL season (and a whole lot of other elite goalie's) and Kipper was more than a full year older. Toivonen has SERIOUS talent and if BOS has given up on him we should be doing everything possible to obtain him on the cheap. Start with JDD to give BOS a replacement goalie prospect and add whatever else is needed. If the ankle injury messed with his game - fine - but he's still very young and that type of talent is worth the gamble

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04-02-2007, 09:54 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil View Post
If it's takes less to get him I'm all over that - but try find a 21 year old goalie who put up a .932 SP in an AHL season with over 50 starts? That SP number is stunning and better than Kipper's in his first AHL season (and a whole lot of other elite goalie's) and Kipper was more than a full year older. Toivonen has SERIOUS talent and if BOS has given up on him we should be doing everything possible to obtain him on the cheap. Start with JDD to give BOS a replacement goalie prospect and add whatever else is needed. If the ankle injury messed with his game - fine - but he's still very young and that type of talent is worth the gamble
First that was his second year in the AHL, in his first he put up a 0.921 save % in 36 games as well was it him or the team infront of him ? because Thomas had a save % of 0.946 the year before and a 0.941 save % that year. Once again how the hell is that number stunning when Harding and Ward had higher numbers (both the same age and both rookies that year) and Lehtonen and Niittymaki had a save % a few points lower, and all but Harding played in the 50-55 game range.

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04-02-2007, 09:56 PM
  #33
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The Bruins are bringing Toivenen up and he will get starts for the rest of the year I think.

Maybe they're showcasing him, or maybe they want to see if his game is coming around to see what to do with him in the summer, or both.

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04-02-2007, 10:28 PM
  #34
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He also only has 1 shut-out. Not exactly dominant IMO. It reminds me of JDD having only 1 SO in his last QMJHL season. IMO the really good ones have a fair ammount of goose eggs. And while I really like the kid, let's remember that this is the ECHL. The jump from the ECHL to the AHL is about as big as the jump from the AHL to the NHL. His stats while he played for WBS were far from impressive. That said, IMO the most promising thing from him this season was how well he played in the NHL pre-season. Until we see him regularly in the AHL and see what he can do, I'll reserve patting him on the back for a solid season in a less than stellar league. Of course it wasn't his decision to play in the ECHL and he made due with what was handed him. That IMO should count for something.

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04-02-2007, 10:38 PM
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Asia has followed the goalies more closely than anyone I know, so if he says it's good news then at the very least it's a notch in the plus column imo. One thing that we do know about Dubnyk is that he hasn't been injured (iirc) during his development and that's a pretty big deal.

Hopefully Lowe and co. employ several of those veteran AHL defenders who know what they're doing, because a blueline of Chorney's and Young's is going to have some growing pains.

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04-02-2007, 10:57 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
Asia has followed the goalies more closely than anyone I know, so if he says it's good news then at the very least it's a notch in the plus column imo. One thing that we do know about Dubnyk is that he hasn't been injured (If I recall correctly) during his development and that's a pretty big deal.

Hopefully Lowe and co. employ several of those veteran AHL defenders who know what they're doing, because a blueline of Chorney's and Young's is going to have some growing pains.
Definately, he is one of our top 2 or 3 goalie analysts IMO. That said, the lack of shut-outs bothers me. Of course that has to do with your team in front of you, etc. I guess his GAA compared to that of the rest of the league's would be a good indication as to whether his team gives up more goals or if he just hasn't had the luck or consistency to get more SO's. IMO save % and SO's are the 2 biggest stats in terms of goaltender dominance. Of course I don't have the expertise of AO in terms of these things, but a guy can still have an opinion as wrong as it may be!!!

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04-02-2007, 11:03 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Definately, he is one of our top 2 or 3 goalie analysts IMO. That said, the lack of shut-outs bothers me. Of course that has to do with your team in front of you, etc. I guess his GAA compared to that of the rest of the league's would be a good indication as to whether his team gives up more goals or if he just hasn't had the luck or consistency to get more SO's. IMO save % and SO's are the 2 biggest stats in terms of goaltender dominance. Of course I don't have the expertise of AO in terms of these things, but a guy can still have an opinion as wrong as it may be!!!
Are SO's really that important?

I mean, how many games do you win 1-0 or 2-0 with an empty netter? Obviously having the ability to hold a team out completely is something to care about, but I think shutouts may get a bit overrated statistically, because generally a game where a goalie lets in one goal is just as valuable as a game where he lets in none.

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04-02-2007, 11:08 PM
  #38
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Are SO's really that important?

I mean, how many games do you win 1-0 or 2-0 with an empty netter? Obviously having the ability to hold a team out completely is something to care about, but I think shutouts may get a bit overrated statistically, because generally a game where a goalie lets in one goal is just as valuable as a game where he lets in none.
Shut-outs demoralize the opposition. Especially in the post-season, get into the shooters heads and the game is all but yours. IMO it is very important although of course defense first teams will likely have a higher number of shut-outs for their 'tenders, but IMO it is important.

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04-02-2007, 11:13 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Shut-outs demoralize the opposition. Especially in the post-season, get into the shooters heads and the game is all but yours. IMO it is very important although of course defense first teams will likely have a higher number of shut-outs for their 'tenders, but IMO it is important.
In junior they played a lot of the time SH which is going to hurt the SO total. Now in listening to some of the games it seemed like DD took a lot of penalties but that maybe implies the defense not only had poor coverage but lacked some gumption.

I'd just like him to play a season under normal circumstances.

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04-03-2007, 04:37 AM
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Well the ECHL thing is a two edged sword. On one hand the shooters are clearly not great - but still a step up from the CHL. The other issue that ECHL defensemen are out and out awful (even by AHL standards) and give up great scoring opportunities with frightening regularity. So you can't just be a shooter tutor to put up numbers - a goodly number of those stops are hard. This makes creating some sort of ECHL-AHL equivilancy difficult - and not many guys start in the ECHL either which compounds this problem (although DD was in the ECHL through no fault of his own).

All that said - DD has to continue to perform at a high level next year in the AHL - and that will be a challenge. He'll be better prepared than a 20 year old though - so I expect similar numbers to this year for him to be judged a success. Montoya put up a .915 - that's the minimum in my books to show progress (which by the way JDD has never been able to acheive).

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04-03-2007, 06:30 AM
  #41
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on just a game last night will said that DD and JDD "could not stand eachother." anyone else hear that and know why?

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04-03-2007, 12:29 PM
  #42
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Well the ECHL thing is a two edged sword. On one hand the shooters are clearly not great - but still a step up from the CHL. The other issue that ECHL defensemen are out and out awful (even by AHL standards) and give up great scoring opportunities with frightening regularity.
Very true, that is why I never judged him by his numbers in Kamloops. Bad team, lot's of shots against and tons of PP's against. Any idea where his GAA stands in terms of the rest of the ECHL goalies???

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04-03-2007, 01:47 PM
  #43
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Very true, that is why I never judged him by his numbers in Kamloops. Bad team, lot's of shots against and tons of PP's against. Any idea where his GAA stands in terms of the rest of the ECHL goalies???
SP is top 3 - GAA is top 10

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04-03-2007, 02:24 PM
  #44
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Any idea where his GAA stands in terms of the rest of the ECHL goalies???
Here's a graph of the current GAA leaders and I also listed the NHL teams that may still hold their rights - I know Berkhoel played a stretch of games with the Thrashers before being moved to Buffalo...not sure about Hodson and Toronto



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04-03-2007, 03:03 PM
  #45
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Wow!! i'd be very disappointed if they gave up on Schremp this early in his development. He is playing on one of the deepest rosters in all of the AHL. Finally worked his way up to the top line and has been putting up the numbers we expected as of late. sigh


As for our goalies ..i think DD is progressing well and will be a greay goalie for us one day. JDD had a tough time last year but bounced back this year and has played well despite being involved in a split affiliation ahl team. This has cut into his development again but I would not label him a bust. I think he is doing well based on the circumstances

Do you agree?

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