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Crosby's Adjusted stats

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Old
04-08-2007, 10:51 PM
  #26
asdf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cup 2007 Sens Rule! View Post
Well Gretzky had 2 Harts and 1 Ross trophy after 2 seasons, he had led the NHL in or tied in scoring both seasons. He had set the all-time record for points in a season and assists in a season. And he got 21 points in 9 playoff games.

So 5 months is important but leading the NHL in scoring isn't?
Well, 5 months can be a pretty big difference. If Crosby had been born a month later, he wouldn't have been able to come into the league until this past year.

I'm just saying that both sides pick apart small details. The Crosby side will bring up that Crosby had a later birthday and is half a year younger than Gretzky was when he started. The Gretzky side will bring up that Crosby didn't tie for the scoring lead and win the Hart in his first year, or that he didn't win the scoring title by 30% and win the Hart in his second year, therefore he doesn't come close to Gretzky.

As you said, Gretzky had 2 Harts and 1 Art Ross after his second year. Crosby has 1 Art Ross and possibly 1 Hart after his second year. Pretty impressive.

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Old
04-09-2007, 02:35 AM
  #27
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cupcrazyman View Post
where did you get your stats for gretzky?because there wrong .

here's the real stats

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php3?pid=2035
Thanks for coming out!

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Old
04-12-2007, 04:40 PM
  #28
Stonefly
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If one of you math wizards (Hockey Outsider, Seventieslord...) has the time would you be able to post what Gretzky's adjusted stats are for the 81/82 season and then also what Crosby would need to do next year to be near Gretzky's number? Just curious how much he will have to step it up to keep up. Much obliged.
Also can you briefly explain how the adjusted stats work for points? If you're using GPG shouldn't you also use the players goal total for the year and not the point total? Sorry guys, sometimes(math) you have to talk to me like I ride the short bus.

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Old
04-12-2007, 05:52 PM
  #29
Hockey Outsider
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Good question!

Gretzky's adjusted stats for 1981-82 (his third season) are: 82 games played, 72 goals, 88 assists, 160 points. (Yes, that's quite a reduction from his real stats, but 1982 was the only year since 1921 that featured more than eight goals per game on average).

Assuming that scoring in 2007-08 is identical to this year, Crosby would need to score 64 goals, 88 assists and 152 points to keep up with Gretzky. In other words, scoring 64 goals and 88 assists in today's scoring environment would equal 72 adjusted goals and 88 adjusted assists (which, in turn, equals Gretzky's 1981-82 season).

The scary thing is, Crosby actually has a good chance of surprassing Gretzky in assists. However, while I'm sure that we haven't seen the best of Crosby's goal-scoring yet, I highly doubt that Crosby will score 60+ goals next season. (Though I would love for him to prove me wrong). The numbers (and common sense) show that as great as Crosby is, it will be extremely hard for him to keep up with TGO.

====

I tried to explain the system briefly in post #11. Let me know if you want me to clarify it further.

And, yes, you take goals and assists seperately and add them together at the end. Since the number of assists-per-goal has varied significantly over time, I needed to include another variable that applies to assists only.

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Old
04-12-2007, 06:12 PM
  #30
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Thanks HO.
Same formula for assists then I guess. I would just need the all time average assists per game and then by season?
Does anyone have those?

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