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The Offseason Goalie Situation

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04-10-2007, 10:06 PM
  #51
Bill Peckerskull
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Terry Frei on the Fan talking about the Avs and what they may do in the off season. Says that from the feelings that he gets from Pepsi Center, he's pretty sure that the Avs will NOT buy out Theadore.

To me that makes no sense. Yeah, you can get out of his contract after one year if he stays, but then you are essentially wasting 4.5 million dollars for next year if you don't. I'd rather waste the money over two years, where the cap hit isn't as large, and you can sign additional help for your team. But I guess basing how the Avs have managed the cap the past two years, and the mistakes they have made, this shouldn't be a surprise.

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04-10-2007, 10:12 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Jori View Post
Nice email CHF

Listening to the Avs recap show on AM 950 The Fan right now. Frei finally got the buyout cap numbers correct for Theodore. Kudos to you Terry, but Frei doesn't think Theodore will be bought out. He feels the Avs are happy with his attitude and work ethic. He wouldn't be surprised if the Avs go either way, but his feeling is that he'll be kept and those were my feelings after listening to Giguere the last couple of days. I hope a credible backup becomes available in the summer and the Avs cut the cord, but it looks as if we'll be stuck for one more season.
Meh, it could be worse. As much as I dislike Theo he is a good team mate and has a solid work eithic. Also, at this point he's probably more suited as a backup than a starter anyway. We'll still have quite a bit of money to play with even if he does stick around for one more season. Then next offseason with his $5.3 million hit off the books we'll have money to re-sign our RFAs (Wolski) and UFAs (like Liles and Leopold).

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04-10-2007, 10:15 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by BigRedBrad View Post
Terry Frei on the Fan talking about the Avs and what they may do in the off season. Says that from the feelings that he gets from Pepsi Center, he's pretty sure that the Avs will NOT buy out Theadore.

To me that makes no sense. Yeah, you can get out of his contract after one year if he stays, but then you are essentially wasting 4.5 million dollars for next year if you don't. I'd rather waste the money over two years, where the cap hit isn't as large, and you can sign additional help for your team. But I guess basing how the Avs have managed the cap the past two years, and the mistakes they have made, this shouldn't be a surprise.
Keeping Theo really isn't that bad of a move. If the Avs don't buy him out they'll still have a significant amount of money to play with in the offseason. Not to mention that we won't have dead money counting against the cap for two seasons (a la the Blake/Sakic bonuses). That dead money kills me more than anything about the cap and it will be nice to get rid of it and not add anymore.

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04-10-2007, 10:28 PM
  #54
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They could still end up trading him to Phoenix, if Gretzky thinks he can return to form. Not if they buy him out, though.

I dunno, I'm on the fence concerning Theodore. He has shown good team camaraderie, and good work ethics. And, once the season started and the whole Paris Hilton thing was behind him, he kept his act clean (as far as I know...). None of the nonsense we heard about from Habs fans.

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04-10-2007, 11:01 PM
  #55
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there is no guarantees the cap goes up in 08/09, this upcoming season we have alot of crucial players in at bargain base caps, theodore is the only guy on our team overpaied. besides, everyone who followed this team all year knows the reason we stunk for the 1st 60 games was piss-poor defensive coverage. when this team finally realized it was time for some solid d, the team got hot and dropped its gaa considerably. theo's last 3-4 starts, he actually posted decent numbers.

i still dont see people logic in a theo buyout for this year at 1.3M + a new backup roughly 2M=3M+, is only a saving of 2M, which is a solid depth player, but the avs already have quite a few solid depth player. lets ride out the theo contract and keep our solid tandem and maybe resign theo for cheaper as a long term backup for 2M.

i dont want a 2M cap hit hanging over this team in 2008.

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04-10-2007, 11:14 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Super Joe Sakic View Post
I think the Avs (as do I) believe that Theodore can still get it done. He's mentally fragile and small. It's not likely that he can succeed. But, I've watched him during practices and have been impressed with his abilities down low. He also had one successful playoff series with the Avs.

However, I also don't think that Giguere will lay out his cards, regarding Theodore, just yet. Part of what he says has to be GM-talk because you wouldn't want other teams to realize that Colorado could want a goalie (starter or backup). It might influence how they make decisions about their goalies. For instance, I think that the Wild would be less inclined to let Backstrom go if they think he's got a good chance of going to the Avalanche. There's no rush to get rid of Theodore just yet. Let's see how the off-season unfolds. Then we can more seriously contemplate buying out Theodore.
Just to build on this post further, it would be quite stupid to state your intention to buyout Theodore and not come through (for whatever reason possible...especially if you're considering that a better option may not be presented from the UFAs available). Can you imagine the bad publicity that would result from this? This is probably a more legitimate reason not to be rushed in getting rid of Theo.


Last edited by fcbarcelona: 04-10-2007 at 11:24 PM.
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04-10-2007, 11:17 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by DRL View Post
there is no guarantees the cap goes up in 08/09, this upcoming season we have alot of crucial players in at bargain base caps, theodore is the only guy on our team overpaied. besides, everyone who followed this team all year knows the reason we stunk for the 1st 60 games was piss-poor defensive coverage. when this team finally realized it was time for some solid d, the team got hot and dropped its gaa considerably. theo's last 3-4 starts, he actually posted decent numbers.

i still dont see people logic in a theo buyout for this year at 1.3M + a new backup roughly 2M=3M+, is only a saving of 2M, which is a solid depth player, but the avs already have quite a few solid depth player. lets ride out the theo contract and keep our solid tandem and maybe resign theo for cheaper as a long term backup for 2M.

i dont want a 2M cap hit hanging over this team in 2008.
makes total sense.

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04-10-2007, 11:22 PM
  #58
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makes total sense.

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04-10-2007, 11:23 PM
  #59
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There are risks no matter what the Avs decide to do.

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Old
04-10-2007, 11:28 PM
  #60
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But you also can't be always quick to make decisions either (though I do it all the time). I know you aren't like that (not joking). But, buying out a player is a big thing to do...especially when you're potentially giving away 4 M. I know I'd be hesitant to do that. Keeping Theo warrants further consideration.


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04-10-2007, 11:32 PM
  #61
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And nobody said they were going to buy him out tomorrow. They are going to wait, as they should, when it gets closer to free agency to make a decision. I understand these next few weeks the organization will take time to evaluate the season and decide as to how they will proceed.

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04-10-2007, 11:53 PM
  #62
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The only reason I can see for not buying him out is the 2 million hit in 08-09. If they put the team together after the buyout they have to account for an extra 700 K being added for a player not on the team next summer. If they put their team together this season with Theo, they can use his salary to go after free agents in the summer of 2008.

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04-11-2007, 12:56 AM
  #63
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im lost whats so funny lol

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04-11-2007, 01:24 AM
  #64
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i dont want a 2M cap hit hanging over this team in 2008.

I completely understand this point, but I'm seeing a 5.3M cap hit for 2007 if he isn't bought out (reduced to a 1.3M hit if he is). Simply put, I see no other way of looking at that figure other than an albatross. No more hope that Theo can "bounce back" for me.

I do think I should lighten my stance on not buying Theo out. I just want to see the team go for it next year. I don't think Sakic is going to slow down significantly but at the same time I don't think the window for him is indefinitely open. So if they can deal with the dead weight that is Theo's contract for one more season and still build a team around Joe that gives them a chance to win the Cup next year, I'm fine with it.

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04-11-2007, 01:36 AM
  #65
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5.3 million cap hit this year, or a 1.3 + ~2 million for a different backup.

FG essentially has have 2 million extra cap room this offseason if he buys out Theo and gets a new backup, or two million extra cap room next season if he keeps Theodore. Considering the UFA crop isnt that great this year I'd say the 2 million next offseason seems better.

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04-11-2007, 01:50 AM
  #66
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I also think that we should keep Theo. We really don't need the extra cap space this year. We have enough room to do what is necessary to improve the team and be a contender. Theo is a great backup and teammate. A cap hit of 2M next year might come back and bite us in the a**.

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04-11-2007, 01:52 AM
  #67
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another way to look at is, 1.3 for a buyout + 2m backup for next year plus 2m from the buyout + 2M backup the year after=7.3M, if we buyout theo,

or

5,33 for theo next yr+ 2M for a new backup or a cheaper resigned theo the year after=7.33M

basically the same total cost.

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04-11-2007, 02:00 AM
  #68
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First off, I don't agree with the premise that a backup should add 2M to the payroll. I think that's overpayment for someone who is being brought in as a #2. Keep in mind the point that Roman Tanner already made that buying out Theo raises the possibility of trading for a legitimate #1. The Avs could start the season with Budaj and a serviceable (and cheap) backup, then make a play for a big time goalie if Budaj doesn't hold up. That may not be an option if Theo is not bought out and the money is tied up with him. Again, if I had any more faith that Theo could possibly provide an insurance policy I wouldn't see it this way. I like the other options better.

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04-11-2007, 02:15 AM
  #69
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im lost whats so funny lol
yeah dude...your post was a bit hard to follow

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04-11-2007, 02:17 AM
  #70
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another way to look at is, 1.3 for a buyout + 2m backup for next year plus 2m from the buyout + 2M backup the year after=7.3M, if we buyout theo,

or

5,33 for theo next yr+ 2M for a new backup or a cheaper resigned theo the year after=7.33M

basically the same total cost.
Oh man...you're giving me a headache.


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04-11-2007, 03:06 AM
  #71
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First off, I don't agree with the premise that a backup should add 2M to the payroll. I think that's overpayment for someone who is being brought in as a #2. Keep in mind the point that Roman Tanner already made that buying out Theo raises the possibility of trading for a legitimate #1. The Avs could start the season with Budaj and a serviceable (and cheap) backup, then make a play for a big time goalie if Budaj doesn't hold up. That may not be an option if Theo is not bought out and the money is tied up with him. Again, if I had any more faith that Theo could possibly provide an insurance policy I wouldn't see it this way. I like the other options better.
Your point, as well as DRL's point, really made me think that perhaps it's not such a bad idea to buy him out. I'm not totally sold on Budaj as a 1, hence why I would want to keep a 1A/2. But a better cap situation to land a higher quality number one would be a solid solution.

In that situation, potentials include:
- Evgeni Nabokov / Vesa Toskala: Will cost, considering their demand
- Nikolai Khabibulin: bad contract, underperforming, so he could be had with the right offer, and is probably the most proven of the "available", though with Lalime as the backup, they would probably probably want Budaj
- Mika Norrena: Not really proved to be a 1, but possibly could be had for cheap
- Chris Mason
- Mike Smith

Ideally, I'd rather the team develop a goaltender on their own or acquire a proven player, instead of another experiment. But I don't see anyone who I have a huge amount of faith with (besides the untouchables).

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04-11-2007, 03:13 AM
  #72
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oh man...you're giving me a headache

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04-11-2007, 03:33 AM
  #73
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There's a goalie in Dallas who I think the Avs should try to get. Anyone recall Dan Ellis? He and Smith were fighting it out to be Turco's backup. If Turco isn't traded, I would hope that the Stars give Ellis a chance to be on an NHL team by trading him to a team, like the Avs, lacking goaltending depth.

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04-11-2007, 07:42 AM
  #74
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So, you buy out Theo and you get around a 2-million dollar cap hit over the next 2 seasons...plus you have to bring in a back-up, who will probably cost maybe 1-1.5 million for a "crafty vet." So you are at 3 to 3 and a half million over 2 years, instead of the 5.2-million for one.

I don't know, seems to me the team is wasting money buying him out, or keeping him...

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04-11-2007, 10:41 AM
  #75
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I think it'll come down to what costs Stan Kroenke the least... cap numbers aside... remember he was unwilling to pay the luxury tax after the Allen Iverson trade with the Nuggets. What makes anyone think that he'd be willing to payoff Theo and then pay for another back up?

What will cost more: Theo's salary for one more season or Theo's buyout + mystery goalie's salary?

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