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Trading the 9th overall pick

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Old
04-11-2007, 08:05 PM
  #1
PocketNines
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Trading the 9th overall pick

I have heard it said many times that in the NFL, the value of a pick this year is equal to the value of a pick next year, minus one round. For example, a 3d this year = 2d next year.

Is that considered true in the NHL? What is the translation scale? I could see it not being the same given that NFL prospects generally have 3-4 college years under their belt whereas NHL picks are only 18.

If the guy the Blues would like to select with their first pick is someone they don't think would be available by the 9th pick, what kinds of offers are good value in return for that pick?

What about a first next year and a 4th this year? Maybe a trade with Columbus, who could then have two top-10 picks in front of their home crowd at the draft? Would we be ok with that? Would that deal be reasonable?

Also, who will truly suck next year and be likely to have top 10 picks? I could live with just two late first round picks this year, provided we can get two likely lottery picks next year ours and our trading partner's. And then if the Thrashers somehow hand us a gift... thoughts?

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04-12-2007, 09:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I have heard it said many times that in the NFL, the value of a pick this year is equal to the value of a pick next year, minus one round. For example, a 3d this year = 2d next year.

Is that considered true in the NHL? What is the translation scale? I could see it not being the same given that NFL prospects generally have 3-4 college years under their belt whereas NHL picks are only 18.

If the guy the Blues would like to select with their first pick is someone they don't think would be available by the 9th pick, what kinds of offers are good value in return for that pick?

What about a first next year and a 4th this year? Maybe a trade with Columbus, who could then have two top-10 picks in front of their home crowd at the draft? Would we be ok with that? Would that deal be reasonable?

Also, who will truly suck next year and be likely to have top 10 picks? I could live with just two late first round picks this year, provided we can get two likely lottery picks next year ours and our trading partner's. And then if the Thrashers somehow hand us a gift... thoughts?
I would do it. Especially if Jarmo isn't to high on anyone at that 9th pick.

Although, I would think twice on who I trade it to..Because I want to make sure they are a lousy team next year, Columbus, Chicago, etc. Not a team that will suprise everyone and sneek in the playoffs and go to the Cup Finals like the Olilers did last year.

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04-13-2007, 02:30 AM
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Would rather keep the high pick and trade a later first rounder in that senerio.

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04-13-2007, 07:11 AM
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I'd be willing to trade the 9th pic, but not for another team's pick next year.
Too many unknowns involved.
Rather see it packaged and traded up for one of the top 3 or 4 picks, assuming Jarmo saw someone there that he felt was that good.

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04-13-2007, 08:00 AM
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If Turris goes #1 and Philly is willing to trade their #2 for all 3 of our first roiunders, would anyone here be willing to pony them up to nab Voracek? From what I've seen and read, he's going to be a hell of a player. Shockingly, we seem to be accumulating DEPTH up front, but lack that true top line superstar (unless Oshie or Berglund break out).

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04-13-2007, 10:21 AM
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The only reason I threw the idea out there of trading for next year is that its top-end talent is supposed to be significantly better than this year's class. Or so I read. So if you can find a trading partner you think will definitely miss the playoffs, might be worth considering. I suppose I should amend the question to be more of if we did do this, how would we fans feel about it, rather than should we do this? Subtle difference.

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04-13-2007, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MU_Beerman View Post
If Turris goes #1 and Philly is willing to trade their #2 for all 3 of our first roiunders, would anyone here be willing to pony them up to nab Voracek? From what I've seen and read, he's going to be a hell of a player. Shockingly, we seem to be accumulating DEPTH up front, but lack that true top line superstar (unless Oshie or Berglund break out).
That's *way* too much to move up 7 spots. Give the 9th pick and the later of the other two 1st-round picks at most.

I still think we'll try to move up, the question is how far we'll try to go.

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04-13-2007, 01:30 PM
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In the past, I recall the price of moving up increasing exponentially as you get nearer the top, but of course if it could be done for less I would definitely prefer that. But from 2 down to 9 is quite a leap, especially in a class like this where the top 8 have been advertised as the elite talents.

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04-13-2007, 01:42 PM
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Do you think a team would go for the latest of our first rounders for the right to exchange 1st round picks any time within the next three years? I think you can see where I'm going with this. If a team really likes a player who is there when we're selecting, I wonder if they'd be willing to gamble.

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04-13-2007, 01:44 PM
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"IF" - Jarmo felt that Voracek was going to be a certified "star" - I would have no problem trading the #9, Backman, and the last 1st round pick for him.
I wouldn't trade all 3, because there is always the chance that Voracek could flop, and then after accumulating 3 1st round picks, we would have nothing to show for it, and that would be disasterous.

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04-13-2007, 02:23 PM
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would you trade down, for the habs number 12 and a prospect

Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I have heard it said many times that in the NFL, the value of a pick this year is equal to the value of a pick next year, minus one round. For example, a 3d this year = 2d next year.

Is that considered true in the NHL? What is the translation scale? I could see it not being the same given that NFL prospects generally have 3-4 college years under their belt whereas NHL picks are only 18.

If the guy the Blues would like to select with their first pick is someone they don't think would be available by the 9th pick, what kinds of offers are good value in return for that pick?

What about a first next year and a 4th this year? Maybe a trade with Columbus, who could then have two top-10 picks in front of their home crowd at the draft? Would we be ok with that? Would that deal be reasonable?

it is only three spots and it would depend if ellerby is still available but would you move down

Also, who will truly suck next year and be likely to have top 10 picks? I could live with just two late first round picks this year, provided we can get two likely lottery picks next year ours and our trading partner's. And then if the Thrashers somehow hand us a gift... thoughts?

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04-13-2007, 02:51 PM
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How about the 12th pick and the right to exchange picks in one of the next three years instead of the prospect?

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04-13-2007, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MU_Beerman View Post
In the past, I recall the price of moving up increasing exponentially as you get nearer the top, but of course if it could be done for less I would definitely prefer that. But from 2 down to 9 is quite a leap, especially in a class like this where the top 8 have been advertised as the elite talents.
Pittsburgh gave Florida Mikael Samuelsson in 2003 to swap from 3rd to 1st. Not exactly an arm and a leg. The cost to move up depends on what each side wants and how likely each thinks they'll still get their guy if they have that lower draft pick.

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04-13-2007, 04:03 PM
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If you want to trade down, would you trade #9 for #12 and a second?

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04-13-2007, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
If you want to trade down, would you trade #9 for #12 and a second?
Depends on where the second round pick is and who's still left on the board. I don't think the Blues would trade before the draft.

But I could see that trade happening.

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04-13-2007, 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
Pittsburgh gave Florida Mikael Samuelsson in 2003 to swap from 3rd to 1st. Not exactly an arm and a leg. The cost to move up depends on what each side wants and how likely each thinks they'll still get their guy if they have that lower draft pick.
That is nothing to move up to the top spot.

To bad they blew there pick...could you imagine if the Penguins didn't choose Fleury and went with Eric Stall.

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04-13-2007, 05:36 PM
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too risky, no deal

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Originally Posted by Checker View Post
How about the 12th pick and the right to exchange picks in one of the next three years instead of the prospect?
it's not like the habs would be going from 12th to 3rd, 9th pick and the 12th pick are pretty darn close as far as player grouping, i think most people see this draft as top 3 then top 8 then another group of about 10 players

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04-13-2007, 08:43 PM
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For the Mtl folks, it would depend on the prospect. Who would you suggest?

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04-14-2007, 09:40 AM
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I'd hope the only reason that they trade the pick is to acquire a young, NHL ready forward.

Otherwise I trust Jarmo's BPA strategy, it would just be nice if he could kidnap the parents and force the kids to come over and sign dammit.

ok, that wasn't funny, all things considered but we have to find a way to read through these kids when they say "yeah I wanna come over and play for you" and it really means "if you'll not put me in the AHL where I make squat, I'll come over for you...as long as my girlfriend is ok with it"

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04-14-2007, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustInJarmo View Post
That is nothing to move up to the top spot.

To bad they blew there pick...could you imagine if the Penguins didn't choose Fleury and went with Eric Stall.
And there are people on the main boards who think to move from 3rd to 1st it will cost this year's 1st, next year's 1st, and a top-3 prospect. History shows that it's clearly not the case.

If the Pens had Eric Staal, they'd have Jocelyn Thibault as their goalie and they'd still suck - they'd just be losing games 9-6.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
If you want to trade down, would you trade #9 for #12 and a second?
At the draft? Probably - but that assumes the guy the Blues wanted at 9 isn't there now and they're reasonably confident the next guy on their list will still be there at 12.

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Originally Posted by ZaphodBeeblebrox View Post
I'd hope the only reason that they trade the pick is to acquire a young, NHL ready forward.
If you're talking about "in this draft", then you're talking about a top 2/3 pick. I don't think the Blues move up that high. Besides, I think there are people who are still going to be disappointed even if we pick a forward (even one from Canada), because we'll very likely send him back down to work on stuff for a year instead of sticking him on the NHL roster and making him sink or swim.

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04-14-2007, 05:56 PM
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If you are offered a top six forward or seasoned potential top six forward in exchange for the pick, then I make the deal. The Blues need someone who can find the net.

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04-14-2007, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
And there are people on the main boards who think to move from 3rd to 1st it will cost this year's 1st, next year's 1st, and a top-3 prospect. History shows that it's clearly not the case.

If the Pens had Eric Staal, they'd have Jocelyn Thibault as their goalie and they'd still suck - they'd just be losing games 9-6.
"They'd still suck"? I disagree.

Granted Fleury has looked good at times...he has also looked very bad.

And to say that if the Penguins had drafted Eric Stall instead of Fleury and NOT gone after a goalie via free agency or trade in the last 4 years is...well just crazy to me.

But let's go with your way for a second.

Thibault has had similar and sometimes better numbers than Fleury.

Yes, 2005-2006 Fleury had better numbers than Thibault.

But if you look at this year and career numbers...Thibault is right there.

2006-2007
Fleury 2.83 GAA .906%
Thibault 2.83 GAA .909%

Career Reg Season
Fleury 3.10GAA .901%
Thibault 2.74 GAA .904%

Career Post Season
Fleury 9 Goals in 2 playoff games
Thibault 3.54GAA .891%

So throw in a goalie like Thibault with similar and better numbers as the present goaile and throw in a Eric Stall on the team (a player that has won a Stanley Cup and was clutch for that team last year with 100 points during the season and during his team's run, with 28 points in 25 postseason games last year and almost got MVP of the playoffs last year).

I'm not quite sure how you still say they would suck...they might not win the Stanley Cup...But they would have added a clutch post season player with 100 point scorer and the possibilty of having a much better goalie added between 2003-2007.


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Old
04-14-2007, 07:35 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PerryTurnbullfan
If you are offered a top six forward or seasoned potential top six forward in exchange for the pick, then I make the deal. The Blues need someone who can find the net.
My thoughts as well.

I think the 9th-overall pick, Backman, and one of the goalies (Sanford, Bacashihua, Beckford-Tseu, in the order in which I'd prefer to see them dealt) could get the Blues a decent mid-20's NHL player with first-line potential.

A defenseman or prospect could also be added to sweeten the deal, as could, perhaps, the rights to Atlanta's first-rounder next year if Tkachuk re-signs with the Thrashers.

I'd prefer to make the deal with an Eastern Conference club, so Backman and the goalie don't come back to haunt the Blues several tmes each season.

Players I'm interested in, in no particular order:

Clarke MacArthur or Drew Stafford, Buffalo
Nathan Horton, Florida (would probably cost the most, but is probably worth it)
Chris Higgins, Montreal
Nicklas Bergfors or Travis Zajac, New Jersey
Antoine Vermette, Ottawa
Jeff Carter, Philadelphia
Erik Christensen, Pittsburgh
Alexander Steen, Toronto
Eric Fehr, Washington

P_B


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Old
04-14-2007, 08:04 PM
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Maybe they do get another goalie ... but I've seen Thibault play since he went to Montreal for Patrick Roy. I would never say he's comparable to Fleury unless we're talking about whether they both use legpads, a glove, a blocker, and a stick. He had flashes of greatness in Chicago (for about 20 games a season), but by and large he's been a backup goalie touted as a #1 guy. His fundamentals are below average, his reflexes are maybe average, and he's incredibly vulnerable to shots up high (much like Sanford).

And I'll stand by my point on the Pens that I've made for a few months now: by the time this playoff is over, their defense will be exposed for the average group it really is. The Pens can score goals in bunches, but until they get a defensive six that can actually shut down the opposition without asking Fleury to do all the work or forcing the offense to score 4 and 5 (or more) goals a game, the Pens won't make a serious run at the Cup.

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04-15-2007, 11:16 AM
  #25
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Anytime Pitt wants to give up on Fleury - I'll give them any one/or all three of Legace, Cash and Sanford in return. I'll even throw in Drake out of the goodness of my heart.

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