Tkachuk is supposed to be a difference-maker. He expects to be compensated as such. He definitely sees himself as a difference-maker.
I was not always this hardened against Tkachuk. I wasn’t happy with 2003 and the way he choked in Game 7 (and failed to score after Game 1), but it was the disgraceful 2004 performance that closed the deal for me. It sets up a painful schism to loathe a player on a team you love. But there is no other choice, if what you want is playoff joy.
I dislike bashing guys for the sake of bashing them. You see it all the time on various Blues boards. You feel that the poster just has some agenda, and there has been so much historical correlation between Blues-board posters who go after a player and trollhood. After all, it is unnatural for a team’s fans to despise a player on his own team. It happens, but it doesn’t feel right.
So, I decided that I better make sure my memory of his entire career was right. As such, I undertook my own research project into his playoff history. It took a long time, because I wanted to make sure I was right. Every game he ever played in the playoffs. Where did he produce, when did he produce? Did he score goals when the score was 2-2 in the 3d period and the fans are living and dying with every shift? Or was it more like, score 7-2 and he makes it 7-3. There is a massive difference in value to those points – not all playoff points are created equal. Did he score in game 7s (answer: pointless in four game 7s). Were his teams, on which he was supposed to be a major difference-maker, able to close out series when they led 3-1 (answer: difference-making Tkachuk on more choke job 3-1 losses than any player in the entire nearly century-long history of the NHL). Was it just one franchise/situation, or did he manage to do it for different teams (answer: yes, he’s versatile!).
Last night was perfect, perfect Tkachuk. At the exact moment when there’s no pressure in the series (no 3-0 comebacks in 32 years), he finally manages to score. Playoffs are about pressure and momentum. And when you’re down 3-0, nobody expects you to come back. No pressure on Tkachuk, he breaks his four year, 14 game playoff goalless streak. And his team still loses. Classic. I’m glad he scored. Nothing encapsulates his Stanley Cup playoff value over his career than that sad, sad, meaningless goal last night.
Look, this is one of those situations where the facts are in black and white. He had a hat trick in the Blues’ lone win against Detroit in 2002. Even that was a blowout off-night for one team, not a closely contested affair. He also did well against the worst playoff team in the last 15 years, the 2002 Chicago Blackhawks, a team we were a mortal lock to beat. And that is it. Period.
So, if you want to disagree with my conclusions about his other 80+ playoff games, why don’t you show me where he contributed in the playoffs in a meaningful way. Pick a goal he scored that his team desperately needed. Show me an OT goal he scored (hint: never). Show me his teams’ record with a chance to close out a series (hint: it’s an unforgivable sub .250 record). Show me his teams’ record with a chance to avoid elimination (hint: same).
I mean, I don’t get it. Why do so many of you still bend over backwards to make excuses for him like "the team around him also sucked." It’s like an alcoholic’s knee-jerk excuses. Complete denial. 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games against a medocrity like the Rangers? (Cue knee-jerk defensive reactions about how great the Rangers are). Not only is this a logical error (if A is X, but B is also X, then A cannot be X), but it implicitly acknowledges the central truth of my conclusion – Keith Tkachuk is NOT a playoff difference-maker. Difference-makers, by definition, are forces of difference-making in and of themselves. That’s what gives them value. You acquire a difference-maker and that guy will show up and produce, even if he has to drag his teammates along with him. All this relentless, years-ongoing defensiveness about how it’s other peoples’ fault too at some point just becomes laughable.
What drives me crazy about this is that supposedly, we all want the same thing as fans, for the Blues to win the Cup. And yet, there is still some calibration going on that if he signs for X dollars, it will be worth it. NO! What will be worth it is keeping him one thousand million billion miles from the team’s roster, under any circumstances, for all dollar amounts (we might have to shoot him into the sun). I mean, he isn’t even worth one of those coupons whose cash value is 1/100 of a penny. The reason is, no coach has the balls to put him in the press box once the playoffs start. Or to keep him on the bench and only insert him into the lineup when the game score is 3 goals or more difference when he can really – occasionally – produce.
Bottom line, have the courage to reconsider your opinion of the guy. I did. Take a look at all the games he’s played in the postseason. Become informed. Learn. Check the facts, is all I’m asking. I’m inviting you to prove me wrong with the facts. That is incredibly fair. But if you look into it, and with rising horror realize he’s pumping in goals and assists in literally the least relevant times in playoff games and playoff series on the rare occasion when he does produce, please have the willingness to change your mind on the guy. You are entitled to your own opinion, but IMO that opinion should be tethered in some rudimentary way to facts. You aren’t entitled to your own facts.
To those whose hardened defensiveness forces those alky-like excuses, please understand that this is NOT an attack on the Blues. Look, this board more than any Blues board is fundamentally about how to assemble and build a championship-caliber team. The Tkachuk blind-spot among some here is disquieting. Try this – imagine if he’d been traded to the Wings at the 2001 deadline. Honestly ask yourself, would your orientation to his playoff performance change? Wouldn’t you delight in mocking Wings fans for having him on their team? Wouldn’t you just see the truth for what it is?
Tkachuk had an assist on the Thrashers PP goal at 19:01 of the 1st in Game 1 that pulleed Atlanta to within a goal. It was the only goal he was on the ice for all game long. He then assisted on Kovalchuk's goal at 5:35 of the 3rd in Game 2 that tied the game at 1.
Last night? He scored at 6:38 of the 1st period to put Atlanta up 1-0.
For the series, he was 1-2-3 and was +2 for the series ... tied with Pascal Dupuis for the team lead in all of those stats. Brad Larsen was +1, Bobby Holik was even. Everyone else on the team was a minus. Tkachuk had 12 PIM, but 10 of those were from a (IMO questionable) misconduct he got in Game 3 with the Thrashers already down 5-0 when Kovalchuk wanted to go after Sean Avery and Paul Mara jumped in; the other 2 were for roughing with four (4) seconds remaining in Game 2.
Could Tkachuk have done more? Sure - but he wasn't to blame for the Thrashers getting swept. Far from it. Marian Hossa, Eric Belanger, and Slava Kozlov were each -6 for the series, and collectively had a goal (Belanger) and an assist (Hossa). Alexei Zhitnik was -4, Niclas Havelid was -5. The Rangers flat out abused this line throughout the series. The Thrashers as a team looked two steps slow, had countless passes picked off in the neutral zone and turned into odd-man rushes, struggled to play defense, struggled to play disciplined at times, and didn't get decent goaltending for much of the series.
However, no one is going to focus on those things - they'll see Tkachuk on a team that got swept and knee-jerk conclude that he's solely responsible ... and that completely ignores what his teammates did throughout the series that contributed much more to this 4-game sweep.
__________________
"You better get to livin', because dying's a pain in the ass." - Frank Sinatra
I’m sure some will knee-jerkily conclude that he is solely responsible for the Thrashers loss. Those people aren’t relevant to my argument and I don’t know if you’re saying they are. I’m not claiming he is solely responsible for their loss. I am saying he is an absolute horrorshow in the playoffs. That is the only thing I care about in determining whether I want him on the team I root for or not. And I am backing it up with exhaustive research that confirms what my eyes have told me for years.
Let’s have a few facts.
His last 7 playoff seasons with Phoenix, Blues and Atlanta – 53 games, 11 goals. Take away his Detroit hat trick in a Wings 6-1 off night (on a Cup winning team) and that’s 8 goals in his other 52 playoff games.
And let’s see, did those come at clutch, crucial times in the games or in the series?
One was piling on in a blowout Game 1 6-0 win (only goal of series, 3-1 choke).
One was in the fourth game of the losing end of a sweep (last night, only goal of series).
One was in the fourth game of the winning end of a sweep (only goal of series).
One was an insurance goal in the final minutes of a series clinching win against one of the saddest playoff teams in memory (only goal of series).
One was in the third game, a 4-2 loss, that left his team trailing 3 games to none (only goal of series).
One was in early in the first period of Game 3 of a 7-game series that had nothing but opportunities for clutch goals – 3 OT games and 6 one-goal games and 1 two-goal game (only goal of series, 3-1 choke).
One was in the losing fourth game of a six-game series (only goal of series).
One was a goal in the fourth game of a five-game series loss after the game had been decided (also had a hat trick in the lone win of the series).
In two series (Colorado 2001 and San Jose 2004) he did not score a goal.
This isn’t some role player we’re talking about here. This is a centerpiece offensive element. A former captain. A former league-leading goal-scorer. A first-line player. Someone worth trading at the deadline twice for huge return packages.
I mean, even the execrable Joe Thornton – a hideous playoff abomination of the first degree – has a goal that broke a tie to win a game in the playoffs during his career.
I honestly wasn't thinking of you when I made my post. I'm not saying that the points you raised about his (lack of) past performance aren't valid - they certainly are. But people are going to single him out for this year's Thrashers exit much like some will probably go after Marty Turco (again) should the Stars drop in 5 tonight and point the finger of blame squarely at each guy ... when neither is to blame here.
Turco? He has a 1.67 GAA and a .943 save percentage in 4 games. He's certainly doing his part. The rest of the Stars? Jussi Jokinen, Mike Ribeiro, and Mike Modano have a collective 3 assists (one for each of them). Jere Lehtinen is scoreless. No one has more than one goal, and Stu Barnes is leading the team with 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists). Yet should the Stars lose this series, people will point to Turco because he struggled in the past and it makes him an easy scapegoat.
For the record, I had no interest in bringing Tkachuk back before Oshie decided he was going back to UND. Now, I'm still lukewarm at best and I certainly don't want to see him get a multi-year deal. He's clearly on the downside of his career, and needs to be off the 1st line to be effective from here on out. Putting him on the 1st line and asking him to lead is a recipe for failure.
Which reminds me ... if you look back to comments I made around the trade deadline, you'll see where I pointed out that as much as Tkachuk has struggled in the playoffs, he still has better postseason numbers than Bill Guerin. Guerin so far? 4 games, one (1) assist (on Marleau's goal late in Game 3 to put the Sharks up 3-1), -2, and 10 PIM.
That was my point as well IB. I'm not here to dispute his past failures, but he played pretty well in a series where his team was completely outmatched.
Wow, catch the ending to the Wings - Flames game? Mclennan absolutely loses it and goes crazy with a brutal slash. The whole game became nasty. Very glad I decided to keep watching the third....
1. McLennan, what the hell were you thinking?
2. Is there any doubt now that Iginla is not a guy capable of leading his team in the playoffs?
3. What ..... a ..... complete meltdown. For everyone the Flames were going after, I was shocked no one went after Maltby and Draper. (And no, that pathetic "try" by Nilsson to hit Draper doesn't count.)
Vancouver is so lucky to be still playing hockey. They have been dominated this entire series after the first 50 minutes. Dallas overwhelmingly outplayed Vancouver for all 4 OTs in Game 1 and got unlucky.
First 50 minutes of series, Vancouver has 4 goals
Next 340 minutes of series, Vancouver has 5 goals
1. McLennan, what the hell were you thinking?
2. Is there any doubt now that Iginla is not a guy capable of leading his team in the playoffs?
3. What ..... a ..... complete meltdown. For everyone the Flames were going after, I was shocked no one went after Maltby and Draper. (And no, that pathetic "try" by Nilsson to hit Draper doesn't count.)
I'm not so sure that Noodles "lost it".
I think there is a good chance his actions were very deliberate, both to send a message to the Wings, but maybe more importantly, force attention from the officials and the media, on the constant running into Kipper by the Redwings.
Basically, I think he may have well "took one for the team."
I'm not so sure that Noodles "lost it".
I think there is a good chance his actions were very deliberate, both to send a message to the Wings, but maybe more importantly, force attention from the officials and the media, on the constant running into Kipper by the Redwings.
Basically, I think he may have well "took one for the team."
He certainly wouldn't be the first to be frustrated by the 'Wings freedom to bend the rules. It makes me sick that they get away with the crap that they have been doing for a decade. They disgrace hockey.
For draft pick optimization, the Blues could sure use Calgary coming back and Dallas winning Game 7 tomorrow.
Ottawa and the Rangers in the conference finals is what we want. But if Detroit and Vancouver win their series then the best spots are 22/24 for the two picks.
Well, damnit - Calgary is out. Maybe Kiprusoff should have tried to score a couple of goals, because God knows he did everything else to help the Flames try and advance and the rest of the team pretty much stunk it up.
I'll also repeat: Jarome Iginla will never win a Cup until he learns to be more of a team player. He got into me-first mode again tonight trying to score the GWG, and completely ignored his linemates in the process ... much like he did at times in the 2004 Cup run and especially like he did in Game 7 of the Finals where he continually tried to go 1-on-4 through the Lightning.
Well, damnit - Calgary is out. Maybe Kiprusoff should have tried to score a couple of goals, because God knows he did everything else to help the Flames try and advance and the rest of the team pretty much stunk it up.
I'll also repeat: Jarome Iginla will never win a Cup until he learns to be more of a team player. He got into me-first mode again tonight trying to score the GWG, and completely ignored his linemates in the process ... much like he did at times in the 2004 Cup run and especially like he did in Game 7 of the Finals where he continually tried to go 1-on-4 through the Lightning.
I'll agree, yet when the Flame-outs did try to pass the puck, it was a give-away 90% of the time.
CalGARY wasn't going to win that game regardless unless they caught a break. Detroit was easily the better team throughout the series. The carried the play last night once again.
Going to be an interesting 2nd round.
If Dallas doesn't win tomorrow in Game 7, the best we can get is 22/24 for the picks.
...and so it goes.
I don't mind Vancouver so much, now that they've gotten rid of Bertuzzi. The Sedins still don;t do much for me, though...
If the Blues retain those two picks at #22 and #24, there are quite a few second-level players that project to be available around that area.
Per ISS, April:
20: Brandon Sutter
21. Kevin Shattenkirk
22. Mike Hoeffel
23. Brett MacLean
24. Oscar Moller
25. Maxim Gratchev
26. Logan MacMillan
If the Blues aren't able to trade up to draft James van Riemsdyk, and wind up taking a Gagner or a Couture or a Mayorov at #9, and then end up with any two of the players on the above list, I'd be a happy camper.
Couture, Moller and MacLean would make a swell line for Peoria in 2009-10...
