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Backman's value

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04-22-2007, 01:51 AM
  #1
Gman7191
 
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Backman's value

Many people seem to overate or underate his value so what exactly do you guys think his value is. Does he deserve a top prospect, 25+ goal scorer or none of the above in return.

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04-22-2007, 02:38 AM
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rumrokh
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It depends. Are the Blues trading with Boston?

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04-22-2007, 02:53 AM
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If he were rated by HF, he'd be a 7.0A. A second-pairing Dman.

In terms of salary, he is a 2.3M hit against the cap for the next two seasons but his teams would owe him 2.2M and 3.4M in real dollars for those years. That is slightly on the expensive side but not so expensive that it makes him untradeable, especially with the cap # very reasonable. On the other hand, it is two years of known costs, so if you're a team with Dmen in the pipeline it's like a two-year tryout to see if he really fits in your long-tem plans while some other guys develop. And as a top-4 Dman he could well command in the 3M/year range when he hits UFA, though an offensive improvement would probably be needed. So again, it's not crazy.

Many defensemen start hittng their stride at his age, which implies that he has the possibility of still raising his production and contribution level.

The Wideman trade showed that a young second-line forward is a reasonable expectation in return if you're going for a roster player. That is, another 7.0A (Boyes). (Though Wideman is a 6.0A with a specialty attribute).

If you want to package Backman with an additional late first round pick with which a team might reasonably expect a 7.5B or prospect there, then you're offering a 7.0A young vet and a 7.5B/C prospect. What does that get you? An 8.0C prospect? A pick in the 10-15 range of this year's draft? The "A" rating is the key. There is no risk that your pick will be a dud.

Edmonton has the 6th pick and the Islanders' 15th pick. Would they trade the 15th straight up for Backman? What rating prospect is 15 in this year's draft? And then if they would, with 4 first rounders could we move into the top 5 of this year's draft? [One mind-bending game theory aspect to this is we'd probably like to have Edmonton emptying one of the gun's chambers by taking Alzner at 6 if he's still there. With Backman in the fold they might go forward (assuming they rank Alzner/Gagner/Couture equally), which reduces the chances we get Couture at 9.]

I might see if the Blackhawks would take Backman and one of the late-round first rounders for the Hawks' 1st rounder next year. Despite their qualuty prospect pool, with their goaltending and management, they are destined to be horrid, horrid, horrid yet again in 07-08 but maybe they are in denial about that. A top 5 overall first rounder in next year's draft could be a MAJOR piece of our rebuilding puzzle given the way the top of next year's draft is talked about.

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04-22-2007, 05:13 AM
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this may sound dumb, but where do those ratings come from?

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04-22-2007, 07:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gman7191 View Post
this may sound dumb, but where do those ratings come from?
The first words of my post were: "If he were rated by HF." You are on HF Boards.

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04-23-2007, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gman7191 View Post
Many people seem to overate or underate his value so what exactly do you guys think his value is. Does he deserve a top prospect, 25+ goal scorer or none of the above in return.
I dont think we could get that in return, but I think he will be moved this off season.

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04-27-2007, 10:09 PM
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Robb_K
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gman7191 View Post
Many people seem to overate or underate his value so what exactly do you guys think his value is. Does he deserve a top prospect, 25+ goal scorer or none of the above in return.
No way a team trades a 25 goal scorer even up for Bäckman. If The Blues throw in a 3rd rounder, perhaps. He could probably bring in a reasonable 2nd-line prospect. But, I see him going in a package with Bacashiua (maybe why Hiller was signed) and a draft choice, for a young, PROVEN NHL scorer.

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04-27-2007, 10:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Robb_K View Post
No way a team trades a 25 goal scorer even up for Bäckman. If The Blues throw in a 3rd rounder, perhaps. He could probably bring in a reasonable 2nd-line prospect. But, I see him going in a package with Bacashiua (maybe why Hiller was signed) and a draft choice, for a young, PROVEN NHL scorer.
I'm sorry, were you not paying attention when the Blues got Boyes for Wideman?

Add into the fact that Backman>Wideman by quite alot really, and I fail to see why the Blues couldn't get a 25 goal scorer for him. Or at least a player ranked 7.25555532B by my Metric system

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04-28-2007, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Checker View Post
I'm sorry, were you not paying attention when the Blues got Boyes for Wideman?

Add into the fact that Backman>Wideman by quite alot really, and I fail to see why the Blues couldn't get a 25 goal scorer for him. Or at least a player ranked 7.25555532B by my Metric system
Good point. I still can't believe Boston made that trade. It's clear, though, that Bäckman has been playing tentatively since returning from his injury. But, prospective trade partners, should think that after offseason work this Summer, he might be close to normal next season, and become comfortable (back to his old top playing level) as the season goes on. Bäckman, at his best, is MUCH better in his own end than Wideman, and his overall offensive game (carrying the puck out of the defensive zone, passing, shot from the point, carrying the puck into the offensive zone, etc.) balances out to comparable to Wideman's. So, despite being a little older, he SHOULD be able to bring back at least as much as Wideman, if not more.

Nevertheless, I think if he's traded for a forward, it won't be an even-up swap. I think The Blues will also add a draft choice (and, possibly another player) in a package, to get back a higher quality PROVEN young scorer than Bäckman (or Jackman or Salvador) would bring back on his own.

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04-28-2007, 02:44 PM
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StLooFrenchy
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Am I missing something? Since when did offense outweigh defence in trades? I know that this is the "new" NHL, but really, a top four D PLUS a pick for a 25 goal scorer? I think Backman is being seriously undervalued here, and I doubt that this situation is the same amongst GM's. Over half of the posters on this board are ready to give him (AND a pick) away for supplimental scoring, what a waste.

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04-28-2007, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StLooFrenchy View Post
Am I missing something? Since when did offense outweigh defence in trades? I know that this is the "new" NHL, but really, a top four D PLUS a pick for a 25 goal scorer? I think Backman is being seriously undervalued here, and I doubt that this situation is the same amongst GM's. Over half of the posters on this board are ready to give him (AND a pick) away for supplimental scoring, what a waste.
The scenario I described above that adds the pick (and/or another player) would bring back a 30-35 goal scorer. Someone that has scored such totals several times, rather than Boyes' single year above 20 goals. I don't think the other team's asking for more than the (tentatively -playing since injury) Bäckman for such a proven NHL-level scorer is unreasonable.

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04-28-2007, 03:42 PM
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good top 4 D-man in today's NHL = 2nd line forward or a prospect that looks like he is guaranteed to become one in the nearest future.
Of course, everything is relative, and one has to take into consideration other factors--salary, age, contract status (how many years the player has left on his contract, is he a pending FA etc).

Hypothetically, if my team (Oilers) were trading with you guys for 2nd pairing defenseman (Backman/Jackman), I think giving back a player like Torres would be a fair deal.

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04-29-2007, 06:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger_80 View Post
good top 4 D-man in today's NHL = 2nd line forward or a prospect that looks like he is guaranteed to become one in the nearest future.
Of course, everything is relative, and one has to take into consideration other factors--salary, age, contract status (how many years the player has left on his contract, is he a pending FA etc).

Hypothetically, if my team (Oilers) were trading with you guys for 2nd pairing defenseman (Backman/Jackman), I think giving back a player like Torres would be a fair deal.
I like Torres a lot and would do a Backman for Torres deal. Jackman closed his year very strong and I think has clearly passed Backman on the Blues depth chart.

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