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Ellerby at 9? Not so sure.

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Old
04-22-2007, 11:13 PM
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Ellerby at 9? Not so sure.

With list after list agreeing on the top 8 and then slotting Ellerby at 9 it forces you to evaluate whether he'd be a good fit for the Blues if they retain the pick there.

I can't seem to talk myself into wanting him. He's supposed to be fast and physical but not a big offensive producer. The Blues seem to have pretty good depth at defensive Dman and while he'd almost surely turn into a top-4 guy it kind of clogs the system when we're looking to fit McKee, Jackman, Jackson and Polak somewhere in a top-4 as defensive Dmen.

So who else besides Ellerby would we take there if Alzner and the 7 forwards are all off the board?

All the standard caveats apply - the rankings will change, Gagner or Couture might drop, etc. This post is ONLY operative under the scenario where the top 8 as we sit here today are all off the board AND we don't trade the pick.

Be interesting to see McKeen's April rankings tomorrow following the tournament.

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04-22-2007, 11:34 PM
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We'll be trading up to get the guy we want. The only questions are (A) who that guy is, and (B) how high we choose to go to make sure we get him. I guarantee you'll come back to this thread on June 23 and see that deciding who we'd take after those top 8 guys will be completely moot.

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04-22-2007, 11:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
With list after list agreeing on the top 8 and then slotting Ellerby at 9 it forces you to evaluate whether he'd be a good fit for the Blues if they retain the pick there.

I can't seem to talk myself into wanting him. He's supposed to be fast and physical but not a big offensive producer. The Blues seem to have pretty good depth at defensive Dman and while he'd almost surely turn into a top-4 guy it kind of clogs the system when we're looking to fit McKee, Jackman, Jackson and Polak somewhere in a top-4 as defensive Dmen.

So who else besides Ellerby would we take there if Alzner and the 7 forwards are all off the board?

All the standard caveats apply - the rankings will change, Gagner or Couture might drop, etc. This post is ONLY operative under the scenario where the top 8 as we sit here today are all off the board AND we don't trade the pick.

Be interesting to see McKeen's April rankings tomorrow following the tournament.
Well you know what IB would say, take the best player available, I myself would take Ellerby at 9, people will argue about our depth on D, but depth changes every year. I say you can never stock pile enough depth, players come and go, and we can always trade from depth and pick up what we need now. Chances are who we pick at 9 will not be ready for another 2 years and so much can happen in that time

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04-22-2007, 11:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
We'll be trading up to get the guy we want. The only questions are (A) who that guy is, and (B) how high we choose to go to make sure we get him. I guarantee you'll come back to this thread on June 23 and see that deciding who we'd take after those top 8 guys will be completely moot.
1. What makes you certain of this?
2. I take it you're also assuming the 9 pick is part of the trade-up package.

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04-23-2007, 12:36 AM
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
1. What makes you certain of this?
2. I take it you're also assuming the 9 pick is part of the trade-up package.
The #9 pick would be part of that package. Washington apparently wants to trade their pick outright, Los Angeles and Philadelphia are rumored to be interested in trading their picks. The Blues have pieces (2 3rd's, 2 4th's and a handful of players) they can deal to move up in this draft. It makes too much sense to ignore, and while I haven't followed the draft closely this year, I could probably name 4-5 guys the Blues would definitely go after (Kane, Voracek, Van Riemsdyk, Turris; if Cherepanov says he'd jump to N.A. immediately, I think he's a 5th).

How sure am I of this? If the Blues don't do this, I'll ban myself for 30 days.

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04-23-2007, 12:45 AM
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I have you guys taking Esposito rather than Ellerby but that's just my early stab in the dark. Judging by what Chicago, Philadelphia and perhaps Washington are looking for in return for their picks it's pretty apparent that they want immediate help. Will teams be willing to part with substantial enough of an asset to pry away a pick for a player that's likely a year or two (or more) away from the NHL?

As for the Caps trading their pick, it's certainly possible but it's never been something that's explicitly been stated by the front office. It's all been rumor generated by the local media, mainly operating on hunches based on the number of offseason additions that need to be made. It makes sense that they'd include it in a package to fill one of their offseason needs but I'm still skeptical whether they'll be successful in finding a willing partner. In terms of long-term value, it may be smarter just to keep the pick and take the best player available.

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04-23-2007, 12:56 AM
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Cherepanov had a great tournament and certainly solidified his stock as a top 5. JVR had a great tournament as well.

For langway, most Blues observers see second-pairing young vet Dman Christian Backman as a possible trade chip given that EJ, Woywitka and Polak are all pushing for NHL ice time. Most of us agree that we like Backman and all things being equal want to keep him but there's just a logjam and he's the most logical chip. Would Backman and the 9th pick get the 5th pick?

For IB/Blues board people, the agony here is if Couture were to fall to 9 we'd be thrilled to snatch him. And the chances of that are somewhat reasonable if one team reaches down or if some other prospect shoots into the top 10 late right before the draft.

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04-23-2007, 01:00 AM
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True ... but I think the Blues won't take that chance. I think they'll know who they want, and will be willing to move to make sure they get their guy.

Backman and the 9th for the 5th? That's a huge overpayment. Try our 9th and at most the later of the 1st-round picks for the 5th ... more likely, our 9th and our 3rd round pick for the 5th.

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04-23-2007, 01:10 AM
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
Would Backman and the 9th pick get the 5th pick?
I wouldn't think so. I know that may sound absurd but let me explain. The Caps, for all of their defensive problems, have a surplus of young talent on the blueline--Morrisonn, Jurcina, Green, Schultz and Eminger are all among the current top seven. They should rather be targeting more established NHL talent on the blueline this summer to help along their existing young talent...maybe a Redden or Zidlicky type. I think Washington (much like Chicago and Philadelphia, it seems) would rather move their top pick outright than get a lower first rounder in return plus other assets.

I think it may be fairly difficult to move up and swap picks (plus other small assets) unless you find a GM that's pretty underwhelmed by the players available at the top. Otherwise, why would a GM move down if they too are similarly sold on a player and know who they want?

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04-23-2007, 02:50 AM
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IMO it depends on where the different GMs see the shelves of talent. By that I mean if they have a distinct top 5 then a distinct next 5 and so forth then each of these groupings can be assigned a value relative to each other. This is important because it's all about relative to each other as opposed to some general year-to-year rule about what the #X overall should return in value.

But different GMs will see the shelves slightly differently. So if the Blues see the top 5 picks as all being equally high-caliber, then the optimal pick to acquire is #5, not #1. You actually lose value at #1, unless you can trade the #1 for the #5 plus another valuable asset. Last year there was a shelf after the first pick so it was a no-brainer. Staal and Toews will be elite players but EJ projects as a multiple Norris winner. But this year IF I saw Kane, JVR, Voracek, Cherepanov and Turris as all can't-miss elite first liners then the optimal behavior would be to try and trade the #1 for the #5 plus whatever I could get.

What about this. Would you trade Backman (7.0A) + 8.0C prospect for 8.5B prospect?

Or to put it another way, a guaranteed young vet 3-4 Dman and a top-six forward with potential to hit an All-Star game or two for a probable 5-6 time All-Star forward who at worst would be a top-six forward? On this team in this situation I would try to make that happen. You have to give to get and that is leveraging your depth to get a need (it also gives you a little more cap room to work with in the UFA market).

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04-23-2007, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
What about this. Would you trade Backman (7.0A) + 8.0C prospect for 8.5B prospect?
1) Backman is more than a 7.0A. When the guy is "on" he is a legit #2/3 D man. To put that in your numeric terminology: he sh/would be a 7.5 A.

2) What prospect in this draft do you think will get an 8.5B ranking? especially when you consider that Toews, Staal, Okposso, Brassard and Mueller only got 8.0B's.

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04-23-2007, 08:23 AM
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If I'm trading Backman, I want the #5 pick straight up; I might throw one of our extra 3rd/4th round picks, but I'm not dealing a 1st-round pick with him. Yes, that #5 pick projects as whatever, but Backman is a known commodity. He instantly steps into the lineup as a top-3 defenseman for the Capitals, we'd likely be waiting 2-3 years for the pick to make a significant impact.

I may elaborate more later if someone else doesn't pick up my train of thought for me.

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04-23-2007, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by kimzey59 View Post
1) Backman is more than a 7.0A. When the guy is "on" he is a legit #2/3 D man. To put that in your numeric terminology: he sh/would be a 7.5 A.

2) What prospect in this draft do you think will get an 8.5B ranking? especially when you consider that Toews, Staal, Okposso, Brassard and Mueller only got 8.0B's.
Your second point is better and I concede there may be no 8.5, though Kessel and Backstrom got them last year so it's not definite by any means.

Your first point is a perfect example of the "Kimzey Gratuity Principle" where everything pro-Blues is inflated like a service tip. Backman's not a first-line D-man. When Mike Sillinger is "on" he can score a hat trick for us in the playoffs but he isn't a first line player. Second pairing Dmen can have great games and be "on." That doesn't mean they're not 2d pairing talent. [Anyway, the KGP doesn't mean you don't know what you're talking about, it just means you have a major blind spot that dominates much of your analysis.]

It also isn't "my" numeric terminology - it's just using the site's metrics which I find a useful way to have more objective conversations since as soon as you attach a real person's name IMO many people tend to lose some logic because they have emotional attachments to player assets.

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04-23-2007, 08:56 AM
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If I'm trading Backman, I want the #5 pick straight up; I might throw one of our extra 3rd/4th round picks, but I'm not dealing a 1st-round pick with him. Yes, that #5 pick projects as whatever, but Backman is a known commodity. He instantly steps into the lineup as a top-3 defenseman for the Capitals, we'd likely be waiting 2-3 years for the pick to make a significant impact.

I may elaborate more later if someone else doesn't pick up my train of thought for me.
I would never trade the #5 pick for Backman. Ever. That's a terrible trade for the team with the pick.

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04-23-2007, 09:18 AM
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I would never trade the #5 pick for Backman. Ever. That's a terrible trade for the team with the pick.
What's the worst thing that happens, they say "no?" I'm sure JD got told "no" a bunch of times around the trade deadline when he told teams what he wanted in exchange for Tkachuk or Guerin. You don't start off trying to make a deal that's fair for both sides, you start off trying to make a deal that works in your favor but isn't completely outrageous.

Besides, all it takes is one team to say "yes" - if someone out there values Backman enough (and I'm sure at least one team does), trading a 1st-round pick for Backman makes loads of sense and it's a move they'll pull the trigger on and never think twice. The pick is available to make an impact in 2-3 years, maybe more; Backman is available to make an impact now, and if you're a team that wants to get back to the playoffs in '07-08, Backman helps you do that more than the kid you'll pick with that 1st-round selection.

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04-23-2007, 09:41 AM
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What's the worst thing that happens, they say "no?" I'm sure JD got told "no" a bunch of times around the trade deadline when he told teams what he wanted in exchange for Tkachuk or Guerin. You don't start off trying to make a deal that's fair for both sides, you start off trying to make a deal that works in your favor but isn't completely outrageous.

Besides, all it takes is one team to say "yes" - if someone out there values Backman enough (and I'm sure at least one team does), trading a 1st-round pick for Backman makes loads of sense and it's a move they'll pull the trigger on and never think twice. The pick is available to make an impact in 2-3 years, maybe more; Backman is available to make an impact now, and if you're a team that wants to get back to the playoffs in '07-08, Backman helps you do that more than the kid you'll pick with that 1st-round selection.
If you went to the prospects board and asked for a neutral/objective opinion on whether Backman straight up for a top-5 pick was reasonable you know it would be openly and unanimously mocked. Your argument boils down to "all it takes is for one GM to make a big mistake and then we're in like Flynn." Well, sure - but isn't that always true at all times for all trades?

I am saying there is no circumstance where my team, bad enough to be one of the worst 5 teams in the league one year, would only be a relatively young second-pairing Dman away from being a contender the next year so that I just trade that top pick. Come on, you have to know this is a silly thing to push. Hell, the Blues weren't even as bad as those bottom 5 teams and they are a hell of a lot more than one second line forward or Dman from the playoffs, which takes away the "ready now" part of the argument.

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04-23-2007, 09:58 AM
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"Your first point is a perfect example of the "Kimzey Gratuity Principle" where everything pro-Blues is inflated like a service tip."


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04-23-2007, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
If you went to the prospects board and asked for a neutral/objective opinion on whether Backman straight up for a top-5 pick was reasonable you know it would be openly and unanimously mocked. Your argument boils down to "all it takes is for one GM to make a big mistake and then we're in like Flynn." Well, sure - but isn't that always true at all times for all trades?
Going to the Prospects board to get an opinion on a trade is as bad as going to the Trade Proposals board to get an opinion on a trade. Had you proposed the Tkachuk trade on February 22, you would have been laughed off the board. The fact is, most people here either wildly overvalue their own players or wildly undervalue someone else's players (or both) - and while the vast majority of people here would have struggled with even something like the Smyth to NYI deal.

It's been said that at HF having a stable full of outstanding prospects is valued more by people than winning the Stanley Cup - and there's a certain amount of truth to that. People absolutely flip out when you suggest they trade a prospect for a player that can help them down the stretch and in the playoffs - "WHAT? YOUR GUY IS GOING TO WALK THIS YEAR, MY GUY WILL BE AROUND FOR 10 MORE YEARS - ARE YOU NUTS?" - even if making that trade might improve their chances of winning a Cup. In fact, I could rattle a list of perceptions that people have (and still have) about what guys are worth that fly in the face of reality. So I would never take what people here say about a trade proposal at face value; the vast majority of the time, they're off base about their own presumptions of what guys are worth.

Go back and see what I thought Tkachuk and Guerin would get at the deadline. I was pretty much on with Guerin, I actually undervalued Tkachuk. Otherwise, I was fairly close on most players ... the notable exception being Nagy. Could I be off base? Of course I could - but I think I'm closer than most other people typically are.


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I am saying there is no circumstance where my team, bad enough to be one of the worst 5 teams in the league one year, would only be a relatively young second-pairing Dman away from being a contender the next year so that I just trade that top pick. Come on, you have to know this is a silly thing to push. Hell, the Blues weren't even as bad as those bottom 5 teams and they are a hell of a lot more than one second line forward or Dman from the playoffs, which takes away the "ready now" part of the argument.
There's no circumstance where you would do this - but as I've pointed out, perception at HF is different from reality.

Let's look at who's in the bottom five, though:

Chicago: They've sucked in the past, they suck now, they'll suck for a while - but I can see them dealing their pick in another failed attempt to improve the team now. They probably won't, but if they did I wouldn't be shocked at all.

Philadelphia: They had a complete meltdown this year, and sold off at the deadline to get pieces for the future. Missing the playoffs in '07-08 isn't an option for them, they'll want back in - and if they can deal their pick for a player that helps them do it, you better believe they will.

Phoenix: Largely like Chicago, except they actually have hope of getting better and won't trade their pick. If anything, they'd try to trade up to make sure they get the guy they want.

Los Angeles: They've missed the playoffs for 4 straight seasons now, they need to get back in sooner rather than later. Dean Lombardi can make great moves (see: Jack Johnson) or horrible moves (see: Dan Cloutier). They could use a player to help now, so him trading the pick or even just moving down wouldn't be a shock at all.

Washington: See Los Angeles. If you believe the rumors, they'd deal the pick for help now; trading down could also be an option.

That's 3 of the 5 teams that could conceivably trade away - either by shipping the pick outright or trading down. Would it cost Christian Backman? Maybe - but as I've said before, the more likely scenario is that we swap 1st-round picks and throw in another pick. Would another team trade away a 1st-round pick for Backman? Again - people here want to look solely at the future; GM's are balancing the future against the present. I maintain that if the Blues offered Backman for a 1st-round pick straight up, there would be more than a couple of teams that would pay attention ... the question is who those teams would be.

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04-23-2007, 10:34 AM
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If I'm trading Backman, I want the #5 pick straight up; I might throw one of our extra 3rd/4th round picks, but I'm not dealing a 1st-round pick with him. Yes, that #5 pick projects as whatever, but Backman is a known commodity. He instantly steps into the lineup as a top-3 defenseman for the Capitals, we'd likely be waiting 2-3 years for the pick to make a significant impact.

I may elaborate more later if someone else doesn't pick up my train of thought for me.
I understand the train of thought and think the Caps front office would consider that type of deal if the player coming back is a center, RW or veteran defenseman. The Caps D situation, as I've noted, doesn't put them into a position where they'd be interested in that type of trade right now. They've got enough in the way of young talent on the blueline. They moreso need a couple of established veterans to round out their pairings and help bring along their young defensemen. It really isn't a question of value but a question of the situation and the fit. (Though the two are often interrelated.)

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04-23-2007, 10:41 AM
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I understand the train of thought and think the Caps front office would consider that type of deal if the player coming back is a center, RW or veteran defenseman. The Caps D situation, as I've noted, doesn't put them into a position where they'd be interested in that type of trade right now. They've got enough in the way of young talent on the blueline. They moreso need a couple of established veterans to round out their pairings and help bring along their young defensemen. It really isn't a question of value but a question of the situation and the fit. (Though the two are often interrelated.)
That's why I think if the Blues trade with Washington, the most likely scenario is a swap of picks and the Blues sending ____ over - the question is who/what fills that blank. It won't be Stempniak, Backes, McClement, Boyes, or Mayers; Weight and Rucinsky have NTC's, Drake is probably a non-issue, I doubt the Caps have interest in Ryan Johnson or Hinote or King, ... which leaves Petr Cajanek or another draft pick. Of course, if the Caps can guarantee Alexei Shkotov the NHL roster spot he thinks he deserves, you're more than welcome to have him.

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04-23-2007, 10:52 AM
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Of course, if the Caps can guarantee Alexei Shkotov the NHL roster spot he thinks he deserves, you're more than welcome to have him.
...and with Semin and Ovechkin already in the organization, Washington just might be a place where Shkotov could land and have countrymen to ease his transition and play on his line.

Ovechkin's listed as a LW, Semin is, I believe, a C. Shkotov can play RW, and so can Timofei Shishkanov (a right-handed shot listed as a LW). Shkotov can also play center. Mix and match between those four players for a pretty dangerous line, and Shishkanov seems to have developed a mean and physical streak over in Russia. Also, both Shkotov (48th 2002) and Shishkanov (33rd 2001) are (fairly) recent mid-to-high second round picks, so it's not like they're schmoes from Schmoville who have no potential whatsoever...

Would the 9th pick, Shkotov (under contract for one more year at $475K), and the rights to Shishkanov be enough for the Caps to move the #5 pick?



On an unrelated note, how ironic would it be for the capital city of the United States to have a hockey team loaded with Russians?

P_B



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04-23-2007, 10:56 AM
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IB, when was the last time a team traded out of the top 8 and didn't get a pick in return. At the draft.

Remember, we are not talking about trade deadline here, we are talking about at the table. Typically top picks (ie top 10) that get traded go for a 1st and a 2nd or 3rd depending on how far you drop.

I'm not saying backman won't be in a deal for a top pick, but he won't be the only chip.

Some things about your top 5.

1) Chicago has the top pick. Wirtz doesn't like to spend money. with the #1 overall he gets to sit on payroll for quite a while vs picking up a body he has to pay now. Chicago will keep the pick and the press. same as the blues did.

2) Philly. Here is the only team that is really going to trade out of the top 5. The HAVE to win now. Question is, are they going to buy UFA's to do it or use the pick. I think they will trade the pick. Twice. Maybe trade down to STL for the 9th and a 3rd and then trade that 9th for something else. I don't think they will draft at #2 though.

3) Phoenix lives on the draft. and they just wnet through a major change at the top. They are not ready for a trade at the table. I agree they will keep the pick.

4) LA. Deno typically trades up if at all. since he really only fears Philly moviing thier spot, the player he wants has to be the same player phoenix wants, or he isn't moving at all either. My guess is that dino trades #4 and something else for the #2, and the blues get shut out of the top 5 because of it.

5) Washington. AO will be at the draft again to announce this pick. Ted is as bad as Wirtz about not paying for players now. And with no pressure to win in washington, why bother trading the pick for a player.

So, if the blues really want a top 5 pick, they are going to A) outbid LA, or B) bid a normal price of a 1st and a 3rd if LA doesn't want the #2 spot. You could see the #9 and backman if LA REALLY wanted that pick, but I don't see that happening based on the way the draft is spread out in the top 8.

Honestly, I don't see the Blues wasting the picks to move up 1 or 2 spots (ie 9 to 7) so I think the Blues will draft normal at 9.

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04-23-2007, 11:22 AM
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The #9 pick would be part of that package. Washington apparently wants to trade their pick outright, Los Angeles and Philadelphia are rumored to be interested in trading their picks. The Blues have pieces (2 3rd's, 2 4th's and a handful of players) they can deal to move up in this draft. It makes too much sense to ignore, and while I haven't followed the draft closely this year, I could probably name 4-5 guys the Blues would definitely go after (Kane, Voracek, Van Riemsdyk, Turris; if Cherepanov says he'd jump to N.A. immediately, I think he's a 5th).

How sure am I of this? If the Blues don't do this, I'll ban myself for 30 days.
Hey IB don't ban yourself before you can make the payment to the charity for the Blues failure to come to terms with Aaltonen

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04-23-2007, 11:45 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
Would the 9th pick, Shkotov (under contract for one more year at $475K), and the rights to Shishkanov be enough for the Caps to move the #5 pick?
How willing are Shkotov and Shishkanov to come to North America? Is it a case of them only coming if they're assured a roster spot? If so, that sounds problematic. Unless the Caps are pretty familiar with those two and sold on their potential, I'm not sure they'd take that sort of risk.

Based on Washington's front office statements about offseason deals, they seem more willing to package their pick along with, say, Eminger and a prospect in a bigger deal for established talent rather than trading down or trading their pick for a higher-end prospect. (Something like last years' Demitra deal is more along the lines of what they'd be attempting.) How many teams would be interested in that sort of deal? Good question. I think it will be difficult, particularly since it seems as though Chicago and Philadelphia are interested in making simliar deals.
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On an unrelated note, how ironic would it be for the capital city of the United States to have a hockey team loaded with Russians?
If Cherepanov is available at five, I don't think they'd think twice about taking him. Toss in Viktor Dovgan and Semen Varlamov in the future and Washington will have a very Russian complexion in the coming years. No doubt about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vatali View Post
5) Washington. AO will be at the draft again to announce this pick. Ted is as bad as Wirtz about not paying for players now. And with no pressure to win in washington, why bother trading the pick for a player.
I wouldn't say that the expectations are quite that low in DC. Word is that George McPhee's contract is up after '07-'08 and if the Caps aren't significantly improved (read: at least battling for a playoff spot come the trade deadline) then it should be time to clean house in the front office and bring in someone that knows how to build a winner. They will have had Ovechkin for three years by that point without having put the right pieces in place around him to be a competitive team. Ownership has signaled a willingnes to up payroll next year and if that doesn't end up paying off in the standings then they won't be pleased.

I would lean towards the Caps keeping their top pick but if they find the right scenario where a package (including their top pick) lands one of their offseason priorities (scoring-line center, veteran defenseman, veteran winger) then I wouldn't be suprised if it was moved.

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04-23-2007, 12:20 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by vatali View Post
IB, when was the last time a team traded out of the top 8 and didn't get a pick in return. At the draft.
June 23, 2001 - NY Islanders trade a 1st round selection (#2 overall - Jason Spezza), Zdeno Chara, and Bill Muckalt to the Ottawa Senators for Alexei Yashin.

June 21, 2002 - Tampa Bay trades a 1st round selection (#4 overall - Joni Pitkanen) to the Philadelphia Flyers for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round selections in 2002 (previously acquired, later traded to Dallas - Tobias Stephan) (previously acquired, later traded to San Jose - Dan Spang).

It doesn't happen often, but the Yashin trade is a clear example (even if it was Mad Mike Milbury).


Quote:
Originally Posted by vatali View Post
Remember, we are not talking about trade deadline here, we are talking about at the table. Typically top picks (ie top 10) that get traded go for a 1st and a 2nd or 3rd depending on how far you drop.
See where I keep saying the most likely scenario is that the Blues swap picks and kick something else in. I've said that multiple times now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vatali View Post
Honestly, I don't see the Blues wasting the picks to move up 1 or 2 spots (ie 9 to 7) so I think the Blues will draft normal at 9.
We'll see. As I've said, if the Blues end up picking at 9 it won't be because they were content to sit there; it'll be because they tried to move up to where they thought they could get their guy, but couldn't get it done.

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