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05-15-2007, 05:07 PM
  #1
EL Bandito
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What would you do at the draft?

I was just thinking about what I could see the Blues doing at the draft this year after reading over some posts and figured I'd take a shot at what I think the Blues may do and also give a list of players that I think will be the main targets based on Jarmo's history at the draft and the types of players the Blues are looking to build their organization around.

First off with the 9th overall pick, I see us trading down if the opportunity presents itself and I think if a team like Montreal or Edmonton would like to trade up, they could be ideal trading partners. I think Edmonton could fit very well as they hold the 15th overall pick along with the ANA 1st this season as well as their own 2nd rounder which will be very high as well.

If something like that happened just using Edmonton as an example, that would give us the 15th, 24th, 26th, 36th and 39th picks in the draft along with our 3rd, MIN 3rd, CHI 4th and our 4th. Without any more movement at all, that would leave us with Jarmo having his way with 9 picks in about the first 100 or so players drafted. I don't know about you all, but I'm a draft freak and would love to see the Blues give Jarmo this much to work with.

Anyhow, here's a list of the players I feel will be selected from if available when our picks come about.

Lars Eller
Nick Petrecki
Bill Sweatt
Max Pacioretty
Simon Hjalmarsson
Logan MacMillan
James O'Brien
Logan Couture
Patrick White
Colby Cohen
Jens Hellgren
Mikael Backlund
Tommy Cross

I personally feel that when the 15th pick comes, if one of Lars Eller or Logan Couture are available they'll be our pick. Just a hunch, I think Lars Eller fits a Jarmo type pick perfectly and the type of 2-way conscious player JD wants in the organization.

Out of the other players listed, if any 2 of Petrecki, Sweatt, Hjalmarsson, MacMillan, Pacioretty are there I think they all fit Jarmo's and blues brass wants/needs in a player at that stage of the draft.

For the 2 early 2nd rounders, I'd like to see Patrick White, Colby Cohen, James O'Brien drafted if any of them would be available.

Here would be perfect case for me personally if things could/would fall this way:

Lars Eller by trade down somewhere in the 12-17 range
Bill Sweatt
Nick Petrecki
Logan MacMillan
Patrick White

That would be great, IMO.

I'd love to hear some others thoughts on who you'd like to see the Blues draft. Take care.

Chris

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05-15-2007, 07:32 PM
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I suggested this in some other thread somewhere but the 9 for the 15 and 36 is a good deal for the Blues IMO. I might even trade the 9 and Backman for the 15 and Lupul.

I am uncertain enough of the Edm/Stl perceived balance in value of Lupul and Backman that I could also see the 9 and Backman for the 6 and Lupul, though that is less likely I suspect since between 6 and 9 there's a perceived talent dropoff that isn't as severe as between 9 and 15.

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05-15-2007, 08:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I suggested this in some other thread somewhere but the 9 for the 15 and 36 is a good deal for the Blues IMO. I might even trade the 9 and Backman for the 15 and Lupul.

I am uncertain enough of the Edm/Stl perceived balance in value of Lupul and Backman that I could also see the 9 and Backman for the 6 and Lupul, though that is less likely I suspect since between 6 and 9 there's a perceived talent dropoff that isn't as severe as between 9 and 15.
I think the latter trade wouldn't be accepted by Edmonton as is, but if The Blues threw in a 4th rounder, it might even things up. Don't forget, that Bäckman hasn't yet shown that he's returned to his pre-injury playing groove. He's still a bit of a questionmark.

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05-15-2007, 08:35 PM
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...and Lupul's NOT a questionmark?

I mean he had one good season and was, if you talk to any Oiler fan, awful last season. Backman hasn't lived up to expectations, but hasn't really ever been terrible, and is still a top 4 defenseman with upward mobility. I agree that Lupul is a player the Blues could/should target (although I'd rather get Lombardi) but I think you're underestimating Backman's value a bit.

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05-15-2007, 09:03 PM
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The idea is there's a range of possible exchanges along those lines - maybe a lower pick from one club or the other thrown in to balance, but we just don't know exactly how each franchise values its own asset and the other team's asset.

It also could be a range of Lupul-esque players that fit the return bill, I haven't put any time yet into researching what the universe of players on the wishlist would look like. Lupul is kind of a totem for "young, 21-25ish, already-arrived, core, top-six forward."

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05-15-2007, 09:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines
The idea is there's a range of possible exchanges along those lines - maybe a lower pick from one club or the other thrown in to balance, but we just don't know exactly how each franchise values its own asset and the other team's asset.

It also could be a range of Lupul-esque players that fit the return bill, I haven't put any time yet into researching what the universe of players on the wishlist would look like. Lupul is kind of a totem for "young, 21-25ish, already-arrived, core, top-six forward."
Myself, I'd sort of like to see if the Blues could send the ninth-overall pick, one of the third-round picks, Backman, and one of their spare goalies to LA for Mike Cammalleri and the Kings' first-rounder.

If the Blues got LA's first-round pick, they'd be in Kane / JVR / Voracek / Turris selection territory. I'll take any one of those guys.

As for Cammalleri, see HERE.

The Toronto Star worries about Cammalleri's size (5-09, 180), and says Cammaelleri "must avoid injury as he moves up the ladder," but he's played 80 and 81 games in the last two seasons, and has 60 goals and 75 assists in that time.

P_B


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05-15-2007, 09:54 PM
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I saw that thread the other day about the Kings taking offers for the #4 pick, but do you think that the best offer they could get for Cammallieri and the opportunity cost of a 5 spot top-end of the draft drop is a pick in the low 70s (due to compensatories) plus Backman and say Bacashihua?

I don't know either way, I am just unconvinced yet that this is LA's best possible offer for that high pick and a highly productive young forward whose rights and salary remain in control for a few years.

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05-16-2007, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines
I saw that thread the other day about the Kings taking offers for the #4 pick, but do you think that the best offer they could get for Cammallieri and the opportunity cost of a 5 spot top-end of the draft drop is a pick in the low 70s (due to compensatories) plus Backman and say Bacashihua?

I don't know either way, I am just unconvinced yet that this is LA's best possible offer for that high pick and a highly productive young forward whose rights and salary remain in control for a few years.
1. Cammalleri is an RFA going into next season, per IB's salary cap site. LA needs to sign him, and he's going to likely be looking for a significant raise from the $1.7MM he made last year. Significantly, LA had signed Cammaleri to one-year deals in 2005 and 2006. I would be willing to bet that he was moderately insulted by that, won't accept another one-year deal, and would like to get some long-term security with a team that is on the rise as opposed to one that has sucked rancid canal water for a while.

2. The offer for the 4th overall and Cammalleri is:

9th overall, 69th overall (or low 70's due to compensatory picks), Backman (who is under contract for two more years at a reasonable price), and a goaltender (which LA needs badly).

I'd consider sending Schwarz as the goalie, if that was what makes or breaks the deal, but I'd prefer to move (and think LA would prefer to take) a goalie with more NHL experience, like Bacashihua or Sanford.

If another prospect or pick (Atlanta's or Jersey's first-rounder; not both) was needed, I'd consider that as well. No Berglund or Oshie, but just about any other forward prospect would be negotiable, and I'd be willing to bet that guys like Soderberg and Lemtyugov have value to a team like the Kings.

Backes and Stempniak aren't "prospects" any longer, so they don't count, and they'd be deal-breakers if LA insisted on the inclusion of one of them.

P_B


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05-16-2007, 01:00 PM
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Cammalari would be good pick up for the Blues but I wouldnt move up in the draft
to get him. It seems like all the teams who have high picks want to deal. I guess they arent very happy with whats available. If I was the Blues I would take Perron
or Couture at 9. trade backman for a young forward like cammalari, lupol or Louie Eriksson of the Stars. sign his teammate Patrick Stefan to a league minimum and wait
for the other teams to call me looking for picks.

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05-16-2007, 01:26 PM
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I think that this is the weakest draft since 2001, and as such I wouldn't have any problem trading away picks in this draft for future drafts. I'd like to see them try to land 1 impact player amongst their 3 first rounders, so if they can find him at #9 or package the picks together to get that key guy, i think they should do it. The organization has plenty of depth....no need to stockpile kids from a weak draft, if we can use the picks to accumulate higher quality talent. Any chance Phoenix wants 24 and 26 this year for their 1st rounder next year?

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05-16-2007, 01:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
If another prospect or pick (Atlanta's or Jersey's first-rounder; not both) was needed, I'd consider that as well. No Berglund or Oshie, but just about any other forward prospect would be negotiable, and I'd be willing to bet that guys like Soderberg and Lemtyugov have value to a team like the Kings.
Damnit, P_B.....stop trying to trade Soderberg....Blues fans will love him in about 12 months. 6'4'' centers with talent and vision are hard to come by. We've waited this long for him....what's another few months? Put him on a 4500 calorie/day diet and a strength & conditioning program and he'll be 225 lbs when he comes stateside.

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05-16-2007, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Jackmans Domain View Post
I think that this is the weakest draft since 2001, and as such I wouldn't have any problem trading away picks in this draft for future drafts. I'd like to see them try to land 1 impact player amongst their 3 first rounders, so if they can find him at #9 or package the picks together to get that key guy, i think they should do it. The organization has plenty of depth....no need to stockpile kids from a weak draft, if we can use the picks to accumulate higher quality talent. Any chance Phoenix wants 24 and 26 this year for their 1st rounder next year?
Agree 100%

I know some people around here have major wood for Camma-midget, but he's not going to turn this franchise into a Cup winner, so why give up assets & tie up major cap dollars into this guy. If he's so awesome, why wouldn't LA commit to resigning him?

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05-16-2007, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
I'd consider sending Schwarz as the goalie
Wow. Was not expecting that. Seriously? I would absolutely not.

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05-16-2007, 08:15 PM
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Just a couple of things:

1. P9's... I said I would consider moving Schwarz if the Blues could acquire Cammalleri and the 4th overall pick as a result.

Naturally, that would not be my first choice, but I believe that the Blues' need for NHL-caliber scoring now outweighs Schwarz's potential to be a first-rate NHL goalie in three years.

The Blues still have Bishop in the system, and Barulin if they can sign him -- and with Schwarz moved on, the road to the NHL and St. Louis would have one less major obstacle in it for Barulin.

I also think that there are at least two or three goalies the Blues could draft this year who have the potential to be every bit as good as Schwarz, if it became necessary to reload the system in goal due to a trade of Schwarz.

2. JD... I'm not actively trying to trade Soderberg; I want him in the 'Note as badly as anyone.

I'm merely pointing out that he is an asset that, while certainly desireable to retain, is at the same time more expendable (for lack of a better term) than an Oshie or a Berglund.

I know you guys are both well aware of the principle that you must give to get. I know that, if I were the GM of a franchise that had an asset like Cammalleri and an asset like the fourth-overall pick, I'd be asking for at least what my initial offer was (Blues' first, Blues' third, Backman, Bacashihua) for those assets in a package.

Someone else suggested trading Backman for Cammalleri. Sorry, but I just don't believe that will get the job done. If the Blues really had their organizational heart set on acquiring Cammalleri, however, Backman and Schwarz might just do the trick, since LA is hurting for quality goaltending.

P_B


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05-16-2007, 09:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
Myself, I'd sort of like to see if the Blues could send the ninth-overall pick, one of the third-round picks, Backman, and one of their spare goalies to LA for Mike Cammalleri and the Kings' first-rounder.

If the Blues got LA's first-round pick, they'd be in Kane / JVR / Voracek / Turris selection territory. I'll take any one of those guys.

As for Cammalleri, see HERE.

The Toronto Star worries about Cammalleri's size (5-09, 180), and says Cammaelleri "must avoid injury as he moves up the ladder," but he's played 80 and 81 games in the last two seasons, and has 60 goals and 75 assists in that time.

P_B

As a Blues fan I'd love to see that happen. But I think The Kings could get a lot more for a top 5 pick and Cammalleri. I don't think they'd go for your deal. Are they really looking to shop Cammaleri, anyway?

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05-16-2007, 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
2. JD... I'm not actively trying to trade Soderberg; I want him in the 'Note as badly as anyone.

I'm merely pointing out that he is an asset that, while certainly desireable to retain, is at the same time more expendable (for lack of a better term) than an Oshie or a Berglund.
why?

I really expect Carl to be every bit as good as those two 'untouchables'. Sure, it's been a pain getting him to stay in North America....but this kid is everything you want in a hockey player. From the few clips I've seen from the SEL games, and the reports from his earlier days in international competition, I think it would be a mistake to move him until either:
1. We find out that he's not interested in the Blues
2. We find out what he can do for the Blues

Now, trading him for an established star as part of a package (e.g. Brad Richards) would be understandable.....but otherwise, I'd be very hesitant to start trading the youth that Jarmo has already identified and that JD has promised to keep.

Aside from the injury and recovery, why aren't you as high on Soderberg as you are Oshie & Berglund?

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05-17-2007, 06:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackmans Domain
I really expect Carl to be every bit as good as those two 'untouchables'. Sure, it's been a pain getting him to stay in North America....but this kid is everything you want in a hockey player. From the few clips I've seen from the SEL games, and the reports from his earlier days in international competition, I think it would be a mistake to move him until either:

1. We find out that he's not interested in the Blues
2. We find out what he can do for the Blues

Now, trading him for an established star as part of a package (e.g. Brad Richards) would be understandable.....but otherwise, I'd be very hesitant to start trading the youth that Jarmo has already identified and that JD has promised to keep.

Aside from the injury and recovery, why aren't you as high on Soderberg as you are Oshie & Berglund?
Let me address your concerns one at a time.

1. I also believe that Soderberg has the potential to be just as good as Oshie or Berglund, so we agree there.

2. "Trading him for an established star as part of a package" is exactly what I was suggesting. Mike Cammalleri is a legitimate 30-goal man in the NHL, young, and still relatively cheap. He's not huge, but at 5-09, 180, he's big enough for the "new" NHL, and is an excellent skater with a great work ethic.

Brad Richards is certainly an "established star," but that contract makes him a leper to virtually any other NHL general manager, which is probably what Tampa Bay had in mind when they signed him to it.

3. There are several reasons why I don't put Soderberg in the same "untouchable" class as Berglund or Oshie... yet.

A. Berglund and Oshie were first-round picks; Soderberg was a second-rounder, chosen behind Shawn Belle, who's turned out to be pretty much a bust. Semantics, maybe, but players are generally chosen where they are chosen for a good reason.

B. The injury is a big part of it. Eye injuries are not to be taken lightly, and until Soderberg gets back onto the ice and plays with no fear, there will always be a concern that he's holding back because he is subconsciously afraid of being stuck in the eye again.

C. Soderberg's decision to return to Sweden this year, instead of accepting assignment to Peoria, indicated to me that he put his personal desires ahead of what the Blues thought was best for him. I frankly half-expected Soderberg to return to Sweden to play this year in the Elitserien with Malmo, after reading the comments he made at the end of the 2005-06 season... but it didn't leave me any less disappointed when he decided to do so. The Blues could really have used his skills in Peoria this year; he could very easily have been the difference between Peoria getting into the playoffs, or missing them by a single point, as they did.

Again, I believe Soderberg is a very valuable asset, and one well worth retaining... but at the same time, I believe that he is an asset that would have similar value to another franchise, and one that the Blues could probably afford to sacrifice if there was an opportunity to acquire a young, inexpensive, big-time NHL scorer like Cammalleri.

"Simply stated," as the fraud Hadley might say, Soderberg is valuable to the Blues, but the asset he could bring in return (in this case, hypothetically, Cammalleri) is of greater value.

I certainly wouldn't trade Soderberg for just anybody, and I don't think you believe that I would... but Cammalleri isn't "just anybody," in my view, and if the Blues did have him in their sights (which we don't know, one way or the other), it would require trading significant value to acquire him.

P_B


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05-17-2007, 01:22 PM
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fair enough....I appreciate the response. I can't really argue with any of it except for:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue
A. Berglund and Oshie were first-round picks; Soderberg was a second-rounder, chosen behind Shawn Belle, who's turned out to be pretty much a bust. Semantics, maybe, but players are generally chosen where they are chosen for a good reason.
1. Henrick Zetterberg (and about 260 other kids) were chosen after Jani Rita was taken by Edmonton 13th overall in '99. I think you know where this is heading...
2. Soderberg was a 2004 draftee, chosen after Schwarz (not Belle who was '03). He may not ultimately become an all-star, or even an NHL'er, but there's no reason to think that his draft positioning will prevent him from becoming a better player than someone chosen before him. Talented players will always be overlooked, but ultimately the cream will rise to the top.

Regardless, I know we're both pulling for the kid to become Alfredsson v2.0....hopefully it's in StL and not in some other city (especially in LA for Cammalleri, but that's a seperate discussion). Maybe I'm too high on the kid, but I value your opinion nonetheless.

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05-17-2007, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackmans Domain
1. Henrick Zetterberg (and about 260 other kids) were chosen after Jani Rita was taken by Edmonton 13th overall in '99. I think you know where this is heading...

2. Soderberg was a 2004 draftee, chosen after Schwarz (not Belle who was '03). He may not ultimately become an all-star, or even an NHL'er, but there's no reason to think that his draft positioning will prevent him from becoming a better player than someone chosen before him. Talented players will always be overlooked, but ultimately the cream will rise to the top.

Regardless, I know we're both pulling for the kid to become Alfredsson v2.0....hopefully it's in StL and not in some other city (especially in LA for Cammalleri, but that's a seperate discussion). Maybe I'm too high on the kid, but I value your opinion nonetheless.
I stand corrected on Soderberg's draft year...

Thanks for catching that. I should know better off the top of my head, without even having to look.

I do have to say, though, in my defense, that I'm not really citing Soderberg's draft position as a knock against him. I was just pointing out that, while it's true that gems (like Zetterberg) are often overlooked or passed over until later rounds, as a general rule, players are chosen where their skills and potential dictate.

The list of second-round picks that have become big-time NHL'ers is long indeed, but so is the list of second-round picks who ended up toiling in the UHL or the Italian Elite League.

We do both sincerely want Soderberg to become a big-time player, and we both want that to happen with him in the 'Note. I'm just saying that there are reasons why Soderberg could be an important piece of a package that brings the Blues an NHL-proven scoring forward in return.

P_B


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05-17-2007, 05:57 PM
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Off topic a bit and I oppologise. but when does the Hockey News Draft Issue come out.

Thanks guys

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05-17-2007, 06:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c-carp
Off topic a bit and I oppologise. but when does the Hockey News Draft Issue come out.

Thanks guys
I got mine via my subscription yesterday.

If you haven't got it yet, let me know what you'd like to know, and I'll be glad to hook you up with the info.

P_B


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05-17-2007, 09:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prussian_Blue View Post
Just a couple of things:

1. P9's... I said I would consider moving Schwarz if the Blues could acquire Cammalleri and the 4th overall pick as a result.

Naturally, that would not be my first choice, but I believe that the Blues' need for NHL-caliber scoring now outweighs Schwarz's potential to be a first-rate NHL goalie in three years.

The Blues still have Bishop in the system, and Barulin if they can sign him -- and with Schwarz moved on, the road to the NHL and St. Louis would have one less major obstacle in it for Barulin.

I also think that there are at least two or three goalies the Blues could draft this year who have the potential to be every bit as good as Schwarz, if it became necessary to reload the system in goal due to a trade of Schwarz.
I actually know what "consider" means - I was saying I wouldn't consider it and it was consideration alone that I was challenging you on. Let me explain.

This organization has never produced a goaltender on whose back we could ride to the Cup.

This is really important so I'll reiterate - never.

Goaltending is the single most important factor in winning a Cup. So many other factors are important, but if you ranked a list, goaltending is #1.

Therefore, any rebuild is irrelevant unless you're uncompromising in your willingness to draft and develop goaltending talent.

Schwarz is the best goaltending talent we've drafted in decades. Now, draft position is no guarantee of success and all the standard caveats. However, the guy seems like he's on track at the moment and all systems are go for bringing him to the NHL in a year or two tops. In my opinion, he is more untouchable than anyone but EJ of our young prospects.

Recently, I suggested that perhaps the Blues even look into adding Cory Schneider if he is available (and Barulin not signing in the next few weeks). If you absolutely HAVE to come out with an elite goaltender in a Cup-caliber rebuild, then having three top-tier guys in the pipeline instead of two is a preferable strategy, IMO.

Assuming Barulin does not sign, the top-end goaltending talent is Schwarz and Bishop. It's not Sanford, it's not Bacashihua, it's not CBT and so forth. Those are serviceable guys at different levels, but I am talking about who has a chance to be the guy taking a team through 16 wins in the spring.

A 30-goal scorer is nice. It's very good. But let's not go overboard. Maybe he hasn't hit his ceiling but that isn't perennial All-Star production. During many years where we had lots and lots of forward top-line talent and goal production we never got anywhere because our goaltending was always mediocre and/or melted in crunch time. Let's not lose sight of how important that is.

You contend that this draft has guys equal to him in talent - the only way you can believe that IMO is if you've lost faith in Schwarz because no mock drafts on this draft ever see a goalie going in round 1. It is probably the most unanimous thing about this draft that it's on the very weak end of goalie drafts. Not only that, but even if it were true that they could get someone exactly equal to Schwarz in talent, that is three full years we've just stuck in idle while we have to wait for that guy to develop to get to where Schwarz is now. With 24, 25, 26 year olds as our core, all those guys will start hitting UFA range before that guy will be ready to be the #1 - this 3 year issue is a huge deal, especially with Bishop still being very raw.

I also don't understand why the Kings would want a prospect top-end talent when they have Bernier in the pipeline. A short-term serviceable NHL-ready stopgap yes, but not a prospect.

I also noticed that below in the Soderberg/Oshie/Berglund first round comments, you noted that Soderberg was only a second rounder whereas the other two were first rounders. You say a couple times that players are chosen where they are for a good reason, and the Blues earned an A+ rating on that 2004 draft in large part because getting Schwarz at 17 overall was considered the coup of the first round.

So for all these reasons I would not consider trading Schwarz - our best hope for a franchise goaltender in decades - unless it was for a generational type player or unless a equal goalie prospect were coming back.

Incidentally - random question that caught my eye and I wasn't sure what you meant - why would it help a team in any way to sign someone to a too-big contract (Richards) to dampen trade offer enthusiasm from other teams? I don't see the angle. I'm not trying to jump into the discussion on the Richards issue right now, I just was trying to see what you meant by that one part.

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05-18-2007, 09:23 AM
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execwrite
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Excellent points regarding Schwarz PocketNines. Right on the mark.

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05-18-2007, 10:28 AM
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PocketNines
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Thanks, there is one contradiction in my logic though, so I'll call attention to it and modify. I said I would prefer multiple top-end goalie prospects in the pipeline and later said I don't see why the Kings would want to acquire Schwarz when they have Bernier.

Talent is talent is talent - Schwarz is an asset and the Kings could just want him on that basis alone. While my desire to have more than one or even two potential Cup-caliber stars in the pipeline in net is a cautious position influenced by years of disappointment, I can definitely also see why the Kings might want to be safe rather than sorry on this front too.

So, to modify I'd say I don't see the Kings, if such a hypothetical negotiation were underway, to insist specifically on a top goalie prospect as a dealbreaker. It would be more likely they'd ask for Oshie than Schwarz, I believe. The Blues would then have to counter with Schwarz for his name to get introduced, which I hope they would not consider.

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05-18-2007, 10:33 AM
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I wish I could say that I was sold on Schwarz as the future number 1, but to me he has not shown that he is that guy. Top of the list, sure, but far from a sure thing. Maybe its because he has not become accustomed to playing as many games or any number of reasons, but to me he is not untouchable.

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