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Old
07-03-2007, 06:31 PM
  #26
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dump marchant penner is going to be bigger than getzlaf

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07-03-2007, 07:56 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by ReLyT View Post
Remember teams can be over the cap until the regular season starts... they'd just have to dump someone else in order to keep Penner if he does sign an offer sheet...
u can only go 10% over the cap.

on top of that the duckies were only spending $45 mill wern't they? hmmm, interesting.

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07-03-2007, 08:47 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Bonkers View Post
Losing Nieds - 43.25

"Gut feeling"
Trading Bryz+Penner for a solid young D-man (Possibly to St.Louis) - 43
unless it's Johnson...no.

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07-03-2007, 11:30 PM
  #29
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So Raffi Torres signs a 3 year 6.75 million contract, does that affect the price for Penner at all? They're similar ages. Penner is a little more of a scorer, but Raffi has more years of service.

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07-04-2007, 12:22 AM
  #30
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torres has had a higher salary because of he was a high draft pick IIRC, so raises in his contract keep him always earning more...

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07-06-2007, 01:02 PM
  #31
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In light of the Vanek offer (which still seems incredibly stupid to me) it appears Lowe feels like blowing massive amounts of money and draft picks. He's willing to pay UFA scale money to RFA.

So now the question is that for Penner, where's the threshold where we let him go to Edmonton versus match the offer sheet? Keep in mind that our rumored deal was ~2.3 million, so that's a base value.

Group 2 compensation:
OFFER COMPENSATION
$773,442 or below None
Over $773,442 to $1,171,882 Third-round choice
Over $1,171,882 to $2,343,765 Second-round choice
Over $2,343,765 to $3,515,647 First-round and third-round choice
Over $3,515,647 to $4,687,530 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $4,687,530 to $5,859,412 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice.
Over $5,859,412 Four first-round choices

I think we take 4 first round draft choices. But what about 2 firsts, a second and a third for a salary of 4.7-5.9? Probable. 3.5-4.6 million? Draft pick compensation probably isn't worth it, but do we want to pay Penner that much? Think of the precedent it sets for Getzlaf, Perry, and eventually Ryan. I think by the top end of that scale we bow out, but we'll match near the bottom.

The whole maneuvering for their own 3rd round pick makes me think that Lowe had one of these offers in mind the entire time, the Vanek thing was just a "we're open for business" announcement. Or maybe it's to prove that he's willing, and will use it as a threat for trading for the rights of an RFA.

I still think trading for the rights is the only sane way to acquire a player, but it's apparent that Lowe isn't quite sane.

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07-06-2007, 01:44 PM
  #32
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well I think 2.3M is/would be fair money...so far I think dustin don't deserve more than that..and if someone would come with 7M offer I would take 4th 1st round picks

and vanek offer total stupid to me

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07-06-2007, 02:20 PM
  #33
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C'mon Lowe, give Penner $5 mil! Yeah, I love Penner, but, in the short term, he's replaceable, especially in the short-term with Bertuzzi, and, frankly, this upcoming draft is awesome. I would easily be able to handle losing Penner if it gave us two firsts next year, especially since he won't turn around that team, and we could easily end up with Colten Teubert.

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07-06-2007, 02:22 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
In light of the Vanek offer (which still seems incredibly stupid to me) it appears Lowe feels like blowing massive amounts of money and draft picks. He's willing to pay UFA scale money to RFA.
Think of it this way: Who would you rather have in 5 years, Vanek or Briere?

It makes sense to me. I imagine Burke saw the news this morning and poured himself a stiff drink...it's going to wreck his weekend.

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07-06-2007, 02:27 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
In light of the Vanek offer (which still seems incredibly stupid to me) it appears Lowe feels like blowing massive amounts of money and draft picks. He's willing to pay UFA scale money to RFA.
The Vanek deal isn't without comparables. A really good one is the seven year deal Detroit gave Pavel Datsyuk for pretty much the same money.

This is a kid that scored 25 and then 43 goals in his first two NHL seasons. Locking him up for that length is awesome for Buffalo even though they had to pay a premium on the first couple of years.

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07-06-2007, 02:29 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Stan Darsh View Post
C'mon Lowe, give Penner $5 mil! Yeah, I love Penner, but, in the short term, he's replaceable, especially in the short-term with Bertuzzi, and, frankly, this upcoming draft is awesome. I would easily be able to handle losing Penner if it gave us two firsts next year, especially since he won't turn around that team, and we could easily end up with Colten Teubert.
******* draft picks, Pens is already a stud and could score 40 goals next year. I really could care less how deep the next few drafts are. We are the defending champs and need to do everything we can to repeat. Losing one of our best young forwards for draft picks is a joke. I will never, ever, understand the logic of valuing draft picks over players when it's such a crap shoot not to mention a waiting game.

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07-06-2007, 02:31 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver View Post
Think of it this way: Who would you rather have in 5 years, Vanek or Briere?

It makes sense to me. I imagine Burke saw the news this morning and poured himself a stiff drink...it's going to wreck his weekend.
I doubt it. Lowe will have to go to the two firsts, second and a third mark to likely get Penner, and considering how awesome the draft is next year, that's good value.

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Old
07-06-2007, 02:32 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by TheJoeMan View Post
******* draft picks, Pens is already a stud and could score 40 goals next year. I really could care less how deep the next few drafts are. We are the defending champs and need to do everything we can to repeat. Losing one of our best young forwards for draft picks is a joke. I will never, ever, understand the logic of valuing draft picks over players when it's such a crap shoot not to mention a waiting game.
Amen. Hockey's Future mentality at its finest.

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07-06-2007, 02:37 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Stan Darsh View Post
I doubt it. Lowe will have to go to the two firsts, second and a third mark to likely get Penner, and considering how awesome the draft is next year, that's good value.
Yeah, but Lowe really has nothing to lose. Scotty and Teemu need to make up their minds.

Interesting question: Would you trade 1 year of Teemu for 4 or 5 of Penner?

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Old
07-06-2007, 02:42 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by TheJoeMan View Post
******* draft picks, Pens is already a stud and could score 40 goals next year. I really could care less how deep the next few drafts are. We are the defending champs and need to do everything we can to repeat. Losing one of our best young forwards for draft picks is a joke. I will never, ever, understand the logic of valuing draft picks over players when it's such a crap shoot not to mention a waiting game.
Disagree completely....you always have to think for your future and even Burke said you can't keep your young stallions forever. That was his thinking with Lupul and Smid and I bet he is pondering that right now with Penner. The draft picks would more than compensate the loss of Penner. If it's two first rounders though, they can only use their own picks so we would get one in 2008 and one in 2009 which is even more awesome. 2 players > Penner.

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07-06-2007, 02:49 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by luckoftheduck View Post
Disagree completely....you always have to think for your future and even Burke said you can't keep your young stallions forever.
There is a big difference between 'forever' and 'dump him now'.

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That was his thinking with Lupul and Smid and I bet he is pondering that right now with Penner.
I bet his thinking was more on the lines of, "I'm doing whatever it takes to land Pronger and win a cup". WINNING. Its kind of important in sports. Trading Penner for two draft picks doesn't help the Ducks do that.

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07-06-2007, 02:50 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by luckoftheduck View Post
Disagree completely....you always have to think for your future and even Burke said you can't keep your young stallions forever. That was his thinking with Lupul and Smid and I bet he is pondering that right now with Penner. The draft picks would more than compensate the loss of Penner. If it's two first rounders though, they can only use their own picks so we would get one in 2008 and one in 2009 which is even more awesome. 2 players > Penner.
I have to agree with you. But I wouldn't want to lose penner. But say the picks come out to be like a clone of wayne and scott sure.

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07-06-2007, 02:51 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver View Post
Think of it this way: Who would you rather have in 5 years, Vanek or Briere?

It makes sense to me. I imagine Burke saw the news this morning and poured himself a stiff drink...it's going to wreck his weekend.
Or you could have Vanek at RFA money and have some money left over to sign say Zubrus as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank View Post
The Vanek deal isn't without comparables. A really good one is the seven year deal Detroit gave Pavel Datsyuk for pretty much the same money.

This is a kid that scored 25 and then 43 goals in his first two NHL seasons. Locking him up for that length is awesome for Buffalo even though they had to pay a premium on the first couple of years.
Not totally comparable because Datsyuk gives up more UFA years and has proven himself with 3-4 good seasons. Vanek looks very promising, but has had 1 good season and hasn't had to do it against other team's top shutdown units. Nash scored 17 and 41 goals in his first two seasons at 18 and 19 years old, in the old NHL too. But he didn't improve his offense any (although he has rounded out his game). It's very likely Vanek will be a great player but he still hasn't proven it yet. If he regresses, then you're stuck paying him like a superstar for 7 years.

And to clear this up, I absolutely would prefer to keep Penner. But at a reasonable price. The 2.3 million for 3 years is that. But if he were signed to an offer sheet, how high would you go while still matching it?

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Old
07-06-2007, 03:00 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Hank View Post
There is a big difference between 'forever' and 'dump him now'.



I bet his thinking was more on the lines of, "I'm doing whatever it takes to land Pronger and win a cup". WINNING. Its kind of important in sports. Trading Penner for two draft picks doesn't help the Ducks do that.
If you don't get something for him now your only option is to trade him and that won't happen if he's signed to a reasonable contract. Then we will lose him to free agency after his next contract expires. Trading Penner for two draft picks does help us win. Look at the long run please.

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Old
07-06-2007, 03:01 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by TheJoeMan View Post
******* draft picks, Pens is already a stud and could score 40 goals next year. I really could care less how deep the next few drafts are. We are the defending champs and need to do everything we can to repeat. Losing one of our best young forwards for draft picks is a joke. I will never, ever, understand the logic of valuing draft picks over players when it's such a crap shoot not to mention a waiting game.
I doubt Penner scores 40. I think his goals stays mostly the same, but he picks up the assists, say to 35. I don't really see a goalscorer's mindset in him, although I think Carlyle's trying to make him a scorer. But I do think he'll have a good year.

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07-06-2007, 03:02 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
Not totally comparable because Datsyuk gives up more UFA years and has proven himself with 3-4 good seasons.
I'd argue the 3-4 good seasons. His first two were nothing special, 11 and 12 goals respectively. He's also never topped 30 goals.

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Vanek looks very promising, but has had 1 good season and hasn't had to do it against other team's top shutdown units.
1 good season and 1 great one by today's standards.

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Nash scored 17 and 41 goals in his first two seasons at 18 and 19 years old, in the old NHL too. But he didn't improve his offense any (although he has rounded out his game). It's very likely Vanek will be a great player but he still hasn't proven it yet. If he regresses, then you're stuck paying him like a superstar for 7 years.
If, maybe, might, etc. Sure Vanek could imploded and do nothing. Or he could exploded and score 50+ for the next 7 years. That's what makes this all so interesting.

You opinion on the contract is going to mirror what you expect Vanek to do next, no surprise there.

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And to clear this up, I absolutely would prefer to keep Penner. But at a reasonable price. The 2.3 million for 3 years is that. But if he were signed to an offer sheet, how high would you go while still matching it?
Well, that's a tough. From the money angle, I wouldn't pay Penner past 4 million. But from a compensation standpoint you have to get at least 2 firsts. I put no value on a third, and very little on a second in this. The problem is the chart doesn't allow you to satisfy both requirements at the same time.

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07-06-2007, 03:10 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by luckoftheduck View Post
Trading Penner for two draft picks does help us win. Look at the long run please.
How. We lose Selanne to retirement and Penner to a trade. That's 77 goals in offense gone. How do the Ducks replace that with two draft picks.

You claim I don't look at the long run, but you are completely blind to the here-and-now.

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07-06-2007, 03:45 PM
  #48
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How. We lose Selanne to retirement and Penner to a trade. That's 77 goals in offense gone. How do the Ducks replace that with two draft picks.

You claim I don't look at the long run, but you are completely blind to the here-and-now.
Selanne has not retired and therefore must be included as part of the team.
Replacing Penner's goals? Todd Bertuzzi....next question
This is what we said last year...how do we replace Lupul's 28 goals OMG....I think we did just fine.
the two draft picks have and will have more value than penner if they're 1st rounders. I think the ducks should match for any value up to two 1st rounders.

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Old
07-06-2007, 03:48 PM
  #49
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How. We lose Selanne to retirement and Penner to a trade. That's 77 goals in offense gone. How do the Ducks replace that with two draft picks.

You claim I don't look at the long run, but you are completely blind to the here-and-now.

if we lose them others step up their game just because selanne socred alot doesn't mean that someone could of scored those goals

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Old
07-06-2007, 04:07 PM
  #50
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if we lose them others step up their game just because selanne socred alot doesn't mean that someone could of scored those goals
Ok, English isn't my native language but this doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever.

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