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OT: Penner offer sheet

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Old
07-28-2007, 10:07 AM
  #1
JLHockeyKnight
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OT: Penner offer sheet

Apparently this is something that's similar to the Kessler thing last year...except the offer sheet went through.

What's your opinion on it?

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07-28-2007, 10:14 AM
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lowe is an idiot

burke should take the picks seeing as the first rounder will probably be top 10 in a very deep draft, penner is good but hes not worth 4.3 at all, and they have to sign getzlaf and perry next season

everything i just said has all been said before, but it's truth, lowe has no idea what he's doing, that's why he's waiting until the ducks make the decision to actually comment on it

act of a desperate man

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07-28-2007, 10:17 AM
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GKJ
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Lowe is trying to save his job.

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07-28-2007, 10:45 AM
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Edmonton should worry more about making the city seem more enticing to the UFAs instead of trying to lure everyones RFAs away

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07-28-2007, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richichi View Post
Edmonton should worry more about making the city seem more enticing to the UFAs instead of trying to lure everyones RFAs away
although i agree, i think lowes way of "enticing" UFAs is by signing good players to offer sheets. I do not like lowe, and i really have not respected any move he made this summer (souray wasnt bad but didnt really fit the needs of the team). He claims no one wants to play for edm, and this may be true, but id play in edm before i play for lowe.

i think he needs to go, but it seems like a lot of fans in edm like him

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07-28-2007, 05:16 PM
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i think he needs to go, but it seems like a lot of fans in edm like him
Yeah, that I don't get. Not only do they like him, but many seem to think he is one of the top 3 GM's. I like the Oilers, but I think Lowe is a moron.

It is a total act of desperation. I don't mind him trying to sign RFA's, but I worry Penner might be another Lupul when he gets to Edmonton.

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07-28-2007, 05:29 PM
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Lowe is the only GM making crazier moves than Homer this offseason, and these don't seem to be the good kind of crazy. I would walk if I were Burke (that 2008 1st rounder could turn out to be a stud), but young power forwards are tough to come by. It's entertaining, to say the least.

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07-28-2007, 06:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
Lowe is trying to save his job.
GKJ ftw!

Quote:
Originally Posted by richichi View Post
Edmonton should worry more about making the city seem more enticing to the UFAs instead of trying to lure everyones RFAs away
That's so much easier said than done. There are a couple of ways to do this. Field a powerhouse contender (very hard to do), build/improve facilities/perks (much easier). Change the weather (good luck). Edmonton isn't nearly as bad a place to live (at least I'm told) as alot of people want to make it out as. There are things to do there, but the weather throughout much of the year really sucks, which barring global warming, the Earth getting closer to the sun, or a radical pole shift, isn't going to change that aspect of life in Edmonton.

As GKJ said, Lowe is desprately trying to keep his job, as well as build a team which can contend for the Cup. It's important to remember however, that there is no way he's doing this without the permission of the current ownership.

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07-28-2007, 08:12 PM
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LOWE IS NOT TRYING TO SAVE HIS JOB

The Oilers are actually trying to extend his contract.

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07-29-2007, 10:35 AM
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Lowe is trying to buy good young talent that should grow into the contracts that he's offering... these are very savvy, but risky moves in that regard... especially given the compensation he's been risking in return.

RFA offers to the right players and situations are very wise... if the Oilers were truly competitive in the West it is very wise game-theory to push them over the edge with an offer sheet like this would do... if they match they will then need to make deals at a disadvantage (assuming Nieds doesn't retire) in order to get back below the cap.

that's a win for every other team in the west... and is a bonus for everyone else competing for players on the open market. the more cap space you can take away from your opponents, the better you are... RFA sheets should be used as a weapon in that regard by the GMs.

some may say that's 'dirty pool', but it's essentially competition at the management level that wasn't seen previously and makes it much more interesting to observe.

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08-03-2007, 02:39 AM
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re:

>>Burke should take the picks seeing as the first rounder will probably be top 10 in a very deep draft

Yep a great draft year with 3 picks and not having to pay that huge salary that would tie up their hands was the best way to go, smart move on his part cause now Edmonton sort of screwed themselves up on that deal by over paying, tying up cap room and letting go of future talent that will be out of a good draft year.

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08-03-2007, 07:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
Lowe is trying to save his job.
Is it funny to anyone else that although Lowe is backed into a corner here and MUST go after coveted RFA's w/ offer sheets to try to save his job at present time. In doing so, he only eats up his teams cap space and it will inevitably lead to his firing in the future.

I will rant on this topic for a moment.

I have to admit that I sort of feel bad for Lowe. Put yourself in his situation for a second. How would you try to sell people to come play for Edmonton? Its cold as HELL, there is nothing to do, and they constantly travel (I think Smith said 21,000 miles a year or something... i could be wrong) for road games.

The fanbase is DIEHARD I will give them that. However, Lowe still has to pay through the nose to attract anyone meaningful (see Souray). If I am not mistaken Nylander was gaurenteed a pretty good salary, but bolted for the Caps who offered him less.

Side Rant:

I gotta say I like the Capitals this season:

Ovechkin - Nylander - ?
Semin - Backstrom - Kozlov

thats pretty good depth right there.

In the end, I guess I am saying:

Sux to be Lowe right about now.

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08-03-2007, 10:50 AM
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BobbyClarkeFan16
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Quick question. Since Edmonton has two picks in the first round in 2008 (don't forget they still own Anaheim's pick), do the Oilers decide which pick goes to Anaheim or do they have to give Anaheim their pick (and by their, I mean Edmonton's first round choice, where ever it might be).

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08-03-2007, 10:55 AM
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i do believe they have to give up their own pick for compensation. makes the deal look even crappier, huh?

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08-03-2007, 11:15 AM
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AVE MAN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dimitrios View Post
lowe is an idiot
Seems to be a popular line on these boards lately. I guess we'll see who has more points at the end of the year between these players.

Hartnel - Penner

Souray - Timonnen

Briere - Joe Thorton or Iggy

All of them signed similar contracts. Timonnen signed for about a million more than Souray and doesn't have the same physical game but lets use them as comparables because if we were going stricly on money you'd have to use Lindstrom or Pronger.

Briere signed for Joe Thorton & Iginlia money we'll see how those compare.

Before you go out and call other GM's in the leaque idiots, look at what you GM is doing!

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08-03-2007, 11:18 AM
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AVE MAN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyerfan808 View Post
Is it funny to anyone else that although Lowe is backed into a corner here and MUST go after coveted RFA's w/ offer sheets to try to save his job at present time. In doing so, he only eats up his teams cap space and it will inevitably lead to his firing in the future.
I find it ironic that it ok on this board to look at other contracts but not the crazy ones your own GM signed.

Here is a great article written on the Penner contract. It looks very similar to the Hartnell contract.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=8830

You're probably already sick of reading about Dustin Penner but I wanted to get in one last post which will tie in nicely with a detailed post tomorrow based on some salary research I've been working on.

The way people are talking you would think the offer sheet that was signed was the most outlandish contract in NHL history.

But as it stands now, Penner will be tied for the 75th highest paid player in the league next year with Bobby Holik, Tomas Kaberle, Mike Modano, Mattias Norstrom and Henrik Lundqvist.

For me these figures for the upcoming season really put the deal into perspective:

58 players will make $5 million+
91 players will make $4 million+
147 players will make $3 million+
240 players will make $2 million+

And those numbers will go up even higher once the remaining free agents sign.

Here are some stats on Penner that you may or may not already know:

* 24 years old

* 6'4, 245 lbs

* 29 goals (tied for 43rd with Alfredsson, Straka, Shanahan, Cole and Jordan Staal)

* 19 goals on the road (tied for 11th with Sakic, Gaborik, Satan)

* 20 goals at even strength (only 28 players had more)

* 9 powerplay goals (tied with many including Briere, Nash, Jokinen, Cole, Naslund, Demitra)

* 5 game winning goals (43 players had more, tied with Cheechoo, Hossa, Spezza, Jagr, Elias, Vanek, etc)

* 0 empty net goals

* Second on the team in goals (to Selanne)

* Second on the team in even strength goals (to Selanne)

* Tied for third on the team in GWG

* Third in shots and second in shooting percentage

* Played only 14 minutes per game (9th among Ducks forwards and less then Travis Moen)

* After the all-star break Penner had 13 goals and 6 assists in 32 games and was a +7. Ten of those goals came at even strength. Penner's shooting pct was 18.8%.

* In his second year in the AHL Penner had 39 goals and 84 points - in 57 games

* Combined 6 goals and 17 points in his first two playoff seasons (34 games)

Given those stats and what you could reasonably project for the next few years, does Penner's name really look out of place on this list?

Scott Hartnell - $25.2 mil ($4.2 x 6)
Brenden Morrow - $24.6 mil ($4.1 x 6)
Derek Roy - $24 mil ($4 x 6)
Nathan Horton - $24 mil ($4 x 6)
Ryan Whitney - $24 mil ($4 x 6)
Dustin Penner - $21.5 mil ($4.3 x 5)
Jason Blake - $20 mil ($4 x 5)
Michael Nylander - $19.5 mil ($4.875 x 4)
Cory Sarich - $18 mil ($3.8 x 5)
Michael Handzus - $16 mil ($4 mil x 4)

I wrote not too long ago about a shift in philosophy - moving from paying for past performance to paying for potential performance. I believe that is what Lowe was thinking in making this deal. Penner right now is probably only worth $2.5 mil for this upcoming season so the Oilers are overpaying by around $1.8 mil. Sounds outrageous but when you look around the league and see the wasted cap space and overpaid players sprinkled across pretty much every team, it doesn't look so bad at all.

In this case there is a huge premium paid for stealing a young player from another team - just like there is a huge premium for signing UFAs because of the competitive marketplace. When given the choice between those two groups of players I'd go with the players who are still getting better and hitting their prime any day of the week, even if it means giving up the picks. It's a little riskier of course but the payoff can be huge, especially when you recall the graph I posted showing the average goals per season of the top 100 goal scorers of all-time by age:



As for Kevin Lowe, despite the criticism, he's done quite well this summer. He brought in Souray, Pitkanen and Tarnstrom who will bring mobility and an offensive flair to their blueline. He signed Mathieu Garon to shore up the goaltending and added Penner to his stable of young forwards. He did trade the 1st, 2nd and 3rd but still has Anaheim's 1st along with a very impressive group of prospects that includes Chorney, Cogliano, Gagner, Nilsson, O'Marra, Plante, Pouliot and Schremp.

Even by overpaying Souray and Penner the Oilers are still in good shape in terms of their future cap space and may well end up better off in the long run by not having signed Ryan Smyth.

In case you are interested, here is a great list of past offer sheets that have been signed:

Historical Offer Sheets

This wasn't the first offer sheet and it certainly won't be the last. There is a reason why the NHLPA negotiated significantly lower compensation levels for restricted free agents and that reason is well apparent now to everyone.


Last edited by AVE MAN: 08-03-2007 at 11:22 AM. Reason: forgot to add link
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Old
08-03-2007, 11:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AVE MAN View Post
Seems to be a popular line on these boards lately. I guess we'll see who has more points at the end of the year between these players.

How about instead we look and see which TEAM finishes with more points.

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08-03-2007, 11:27 AM
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Lowe giving Penner that much is really not that different than Homer giving Hartnell what we gave him. Both are a bit over paid right now but if the both continue to grow they could be bargins til it's all said and done. Like Jester said, it's a gamble; if it works out you look like a genius, if not, you look like the dunce.

I don't call is an act of desparation, I call it a calculated risk.

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08-03-2007, 11:51 AM
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It's easy to make numbers work in your favor...

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08-03-2007, 11:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
Lowe giving Penner that much is really not that different than Homer giving Hartnell what we gave him. Both are a bit over paid right now but if the both continue to grow they could be bargins til it's all said and done. Like Jester said, it's a gamble; if it works out you look like a genius, if not, you look like the dunce.

I don't call is an act of desparation, I call it a calculated risk.
'cept we didn't give a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rd pick. so, in reality, it isn't even close to the assets we gave up to get Hartnell. RFA contracts out of necessity will need to be slightly ridiculous, otherwise the team will almost definitely match... that's the reality.

As far as AVE MAN's post, I will note that most Flyer fans who have given it much thought will agree that Hartnell is overpaid, however, he was going to get a lot of cash given his age, potential, and UFA status... so while we overpaid slightly to keep him from going to the open market, we didn't give him nearly the jump that you're talking about with Penner... So it isn't nearly as easy to compare the two players as you seem to think.

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08-03-2007, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Flyers Fan View Post
How about instead we look and see which TEAM finishes with more points.
If Philly was in the tough NW then we could.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
so while we overpaid slightly to keep him from going to the open market, we didn't give him nearly the jump that you're talking about with Penner... So it isn't nearly as easy to compare the two players as you seem to think.
Who cares what they each made before. Burke was going to offer Penner 2-2.5million this year, hartnell was making something like 1.75, so the contracts are similar.

The point is, there both similar players, with similar size, style of play and points. So if Lowe is a idiot like many are saying in this thread, then why is Holmgren a genious?

Quote:
Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
Lowe giving Penner that much is really not that different than Homer giving Hartnell what we gave him. Both are a bit over paid right now but if the both continue to grow they could be bargins til it's all said and done. Like Jester said, it's a gamble; if it works out you look like a genius, if not, you look like the dunce.

I don't call is an act of desparation, I call it a calculated risk.
Good Post, you nailed it phlocky.

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08-03-2007, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by AVE MAN View Post
If Philly was in the tough NW then we could.
Honestly, I think the Atlantic is a tougher division. The Devils, Rangers, Penguins, Islanders, and Flyers are better overall than Calgary, Colorado, Edmonton, Minnesota, and Vancouver.

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08-03-2007, 12:44 PM
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Jester
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Who cares what they each made before. Burke was going to offer Penner 2-2.5million this year, hartnell was making something like 1.75, so the contracts are similar.

The point is, there both similar players, with similar size, style of play and points. So if Lowe is a idiot like many are saying in this thread, then why is Holmgren a genious?
you'll note that i didn't say a single WORD about how much they made before... what i noted is the context of the signings. Hartnell was a 25 y/o UFA who the Flyers were buying off of the open market in advance of him getting there... that costs money. Penner was a RFA, which also costs money. The difference is that Hartnell was going to get 3+M on the open market almost definitely... therefore, the Flyers didn't bump him nearly as much as you're saying.

Lowe purchased a RFA and had to give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, which need to be taken into account for this discussion... in that sense, Penner cost MORE than Hartnell... and not only is that more in assets, it's assets that would have helped the Oilers in the form of future players... and it's not a stretch to see that 1st being a decent pick next year as the club stands today.

That's a heavy price.

I don't think Lowe is an idiot, but I do think he's been much too aggressive with these RFA contracts... the Vanek offer was absolutely amazing, and I think the Sabres should have taken the picks and cap space... but that's just me. If Hartnell doesn't rise to his contract level, all the Flyers are giving up is a bit of cap space... if Penner doesn't, the Oilers have dropped the potential for a couple of players that could help the club going forward.

If you want to look at the numbers alone, the contracts aren't all that different... however, Hartnell is a guy who would have 3 consecutive 20 goal seasons barring injury and has played 4x the number of games that Penner has. Penner had 29 on the SC champion... Penner should be a good player in this league, but Hartnell is a much more established commodity.

This isn't the same deal when you bore down into context. However, that doesn't make Lowe an idiot... it's the reality of poaching RFAs... you NEED to overpay to get a guy off of a club, or the other team will match with ease. The question is whether or not it's really worth it to go for these mid-level good players this young with such offers. I like Vanek, but I wouldn't trade 4 1st rounders under the salary cap (low, controlled salaries) and 7M in cap space for him... I probably wouldn't trade 4 1st rounders straight up. Maybe you would, but I think criticism of Lowe on these offers is fair if it comes from that angle.

However, I also don't care at all what players make monetarily, as it no longer matters... they're either good or bad decisions by GMs. Hartnell is a potentially bad decision... and if you took the time to read around this board and see some of the focused discussion on that deal you'd realize there is some hesitancy there. Rather than just throwing the opinion of a fanbase under the bus because you're ignorant of the discussion about the deal here.

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08-03-2007, 01:19 PM
  #24
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If Philly was in the tough NW then we could.
Tought NW my ass.

Pitt and NY Rangers are better than anyone in the NW.

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08-03-2007, 01:46 PM
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AVE MAN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
you'll note that i didn't say a single WORD about how much they made before... what i noted is the context of the signings. Hartnell was a 25 y/o UFA who the Flyers were buying off of the open market in advance of him getting there... that costs money. Penner was a RFA, which also costs money. The difference is that Hartnell was going to get 3+M on the open market almost definitely... therefore, the Flyers didn't bump him nearly as much as you're saying.

Lowe purchased a RFA and had to give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, which need to be taken into account for this discussion... in that sense, Penner cost MORE than Hartnell... and not only is that more in assets, it's assets that would have helped the Oilers in the form of future players... and it's not a stretch to see that 1st being a decent pick next year as the club stands today.

That's a heavy price.

I don't think Lowe is an idiot, but I do think he's been much too aggressive with these RFA contracts... the Vanek offer was absolutely amazing, and I think the Sabres should have taken the picks and cap space... but that's just me. If Hartnell doesn't rise to his contract level, all the Flyers are giving up is a bit of cap space... if Penner doesn't, the Oilers have dropped the potential for a couple of players that could help the club going forward.

If you want to look at the numbers alone, the contracts aren't all that different... however, Hartnell is a guy who would have 3 consecutive 20 goal seasons barring injury and has played 4x the number of games that Penner has. Penner had 29 on the SC champion... Penner should be a good player in this league, but Hartnell is a much more established commodity.

This isn't the same deal when you bore down into context. However, that doesn't make Lowe an idiot... it's the reality of poaching RFAs... you NEED to overpay to get a guy off of a club, or the other team will match with ease. The question is whether or not it's really worth it to go for these mid-level good players this young with such offers. I like Vanek, but I wouldn't trade 4 1st rounders under the salary cap (low, controlled salaries) and 7M in cap space for him... I probably wouldn't trade 4 1st rounders straight up. Maybe you would, but I think criticism of Lowe on these offers is fair if it comes from that angle.

However, I also don't care at all what players make monetarily, as it no longer matters... they're either good or bad decisions by GMs. Hartnell is a potentially bad decision... and if you took the time to read around this board and see some of the focused discussion on that deal you'd realize there is some hesitancy there. Rather than just throwing the opinion of a fanbase under the bus because you're ignorant of the discussion about the deal here.
Jester, you make some very valid points and your post is comes accross as being very intelligent as opposed to the posts of - "Lowes an idiot".

Something to think about , this formula now applies in a salary cap world:

Total Salary = UFA Salary's + RFA Salary's

So if the price of RFA salary's increase then by the formula, the price of UFA's will naturally come down

Canadian teams (excluding Toronto)have had a hard time attracting RFA's in the last 3 years. What Lowe is doing is smart(for Canadian franchises) because it brings down the cost of UFA's and makes them more affordable for the other Canadian teams.

Do you think Burke would have signed Bertuzzi for 4million if he knew that he would lose Penner?

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