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Why the playoffs are still in reach

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01-04-2004, 08:20 PM
  #1
Hemsky4PM
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Why the playoffs are still in reach

There's reason to remain cautiously optimistic about our team's chances of making the playoffs. Just look at the schedule:

Of the teams we are duking it out with these are the remaining games-

Calgary (1 Road Game)
Nashville (4 Games, 2 Home/2 Road)
LA (3 Games, 2 Home/1 Road)
Dallas ( 4 Games, 2 Home/2 Road)
Phoenix (3 Games, 2 Home/1 Road)
Minny (1 Road Game)
Ducks (3 Games, 2 Home/1 Road)

These games will be the biggest factor in the Oilers making or missing the playoffs. Head to head we don't have a bad history against these teams, particularly at home (Nashville and Phoenix in particular).

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01-04-2004, 08:38 PM
  #2
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I'm a little shocked that some people are losing hope so early. 7 points out with 44 games left to play is nothing at all, no true fan can be that fickle.

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01-04-2004, 08:57 PM
  #3
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Even I wouldn't say they have no chance of making the playoffs at this point.

Could it happen? sure

is it a better than 50/50 shot at this point? probably not.

do they even have a 10 % chance of finishing 6th or better? probably not.

Can they beat whichever of col/van/det end up in the top 2 (ie EDM finishes in 7/8 slot)? maybe, but pretty unlikely.

Does it do more for the franchise, long term, to finish 7/8 and lose in 5 than it does to pick top 10? who knows?


no doubt the worst scenario is finishing 9th or 10th, and trading some prospects for current help only to have missed the playoffs. I know that I want no part of that.

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01-05-2004, 10:34 AM
  #4
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Which is why all the talk about going after Oevichin or whatever the hell his name if is mindboggling. You don't give up on the seasn ever, especially when you 5 points out of a playoff and there will be a lockout next year. I like the stat (by igor??) that said the Oilers had one of the toughest schedules.

If they get healthy (loss of reasonner hurt), Oates gets his legs, and player like Horcoff, Stoll and Salo keep improving, I do like our chances. Alot of ifs but not totally impossible. Plus I think Lowe will make a deal to help this club, possibly by trading Laraque to get some offense.

Nah, way too early to call it a season.

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01-05-2004, 11:54 AM
  #5
Mr Sakich
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I don't think the west is as deadly as the last few years. Colorado no longer has Roy and can be beat. Vancouver still has Cloutier. Detroit is awesome but they were awesome last year as well and got beat by a hot goaltender.

If we make the playoffs, it will be real interesting because we won't be facing Dallas. We have a chance.

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01-05-2004, 12:11 PM
  #6
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Los Angeles currently holds the 8th position in the conference with 42 pts. Assuming they hold this current pace, they will end up with 88 pts on the season. This is pretty much around the cutoff number we see every year. ~88-90 pts...

Of course teams are going to go on hotstreaks and coldstreaks... but that magic number of 88-90 pts has been pretty consistent in past years.


So... that said. The Oilers will need to get 51 pts at minimum to reach 88 pts on the season in a whopping 43 games. Think about that for a second. That is equivalent to a 97 point season for the entire year.

So if we take a look at it from that perspective... the Oilers are going to need a heck of a run to make that magic barrier. Or hope that the number comes down dramatically.

Possible? I'd say so.

Likely? Realistically, I would say the chances aren't good.

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01-05-2004, 12:57 PM
  #7
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The big thing the Oilers seem to do in recent years is have a horrible and prolonged slump. Hopefully we got that out of the way early on in the year.

We cannot afford a 5 game losing streak right now, if that happens we might as well pull the chute...

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01-05-2004, 02:35 PM
  #8
Malmo_Mike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver
The big thing the Oilers seem to do in recent years is have a horrible and prolonged slump. Hopefully we got that out of the way early on in the year.

We cannot afford a 5 game losing streak right now, if that happens we might as well pull the chute...
Exactly what I was going to say. They can't afford very many 3 game losing skids. They also need to start winning more of their conference games. Right now they're not to bad (10-12-4) but they really need to get that above .500 at the very least.

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01-05-2004, 03:18 PM
  #9
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Of course the Oilers have a shot at the playoffs. These are the three problems I see:

#1 - The Kings, Stars, and Ducks are better teams than they've been showing. It's possible that all three have strong second halves, but I would be for sure two of those teams do.

#2 - Phoenix is starting to catch fire and Nashville has been hot and cold since last year around this time. Both teams are now getting amazing goaltending compared to October. They could easily break into the post season race and leave the Oilers behind.

#3 - The Oilers still don't have a goaltender.

Until Lowe gets a goaltender, making the playoffs is akin to drafting Ovechkin. It could happen, but it probobly won't.

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01-05-2004, 03:39 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sakich
I don't think the west is as deadly as the last few years.... Vancouver still has Cloutier.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
Of course the Oilers have a shot at the playoffs. These are the three problems I see:

#1 - The Kings, Stars, and Ducks are better teams than they've been showing. It's possible that all three have strong second halves, but I would be for sure two of those teams do.

#2 - Phoenix is starting to catch fire and Nashville has been hot and cold since last year around this time. Both teams are now getting amazing goaltending compared to October. They could easily break into the post season race and leave the Oilers behind.

#3 - The Oilers still don't have a goaltender.

Until Lowe gets a goaltender, making the playoffs is akin to drafting Ovechkin. It could happen, but it probobly won't.
Good goin' Mr S, thanks for inspiring this inflammatory and insipid post by our beloved global mod. This was a good thread b4 you got him involved.

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01-05-2004, 03:43 PM
  #11
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I don't think anyone is giving up on the season, but you have to be realistic.

The Oilers aren't just 7 points out with 44 to play. They're 7 points out with 44 to play AND they're chasing Minnesota and Phoenix and Dallas and Nashville.

Can they catch one of those teams? You bet. Two? I bet they can.

But to climb over 4 teams (not counting Anaheim)? Hey, I'll cheer for them until the end, but the math says they've dug too big a hole.

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01-05-2004, 04:08 PM
  #12
Malmo_Mike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oi'll say!
Good goin' Mr S, thanks for inspiring this inflammatory and insipid post by our beloved global mod. This was a good thread b4 you got him involved.
I don't really see how anything Mizral just said is inflammatory. He stated his opinion, gave reasons. The only negative thing he really said was about Salo and thus far (not so much lately though) it's fairly accurate.

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01-05-2004, 04:20 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
I don't think anyone is giving up on the season, but you have to be realistic.

The Oilers aren't just 7 points out with 44 to play. They're 7 points out with 44 to play AND they're chasing Minnesota and Phoenix and Dallas and Nashville.

Can they catch one of those teams? You bet. Two? I bet they can.

But to climb over 4 teams (not counting Anaheim)? Hey, I'll cheer for them until the end, but the math says they've dug too big a hole.
The Oil are actually 7 points out of 6th place, the 4 teams that they'd have to climb over are only 1-5 points ahead. A modest hot streak would be enough to put the Oil in 8th.

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01-05-2004, 04:36 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malmo_Mike
I don't really see how anything Mizral just said is inflammatory. He stated his opinion, gave reasons. The only negative thing he really said was about Salo and thus far (not so much lately though) it's fairly accurate.
Go over to the Nux' board and say that they don't have a goaltender, see if they don't find that inflammatory. Cloutier has let them down badly in the playoffs so it's not totally inaccurate.

The reasons that he gave are pure speculation to say the least (ok, I'll stick with insipid because it's more accurate), it takes no insight or imagination to say "five of the teams that are ahead of the Oilers could play really well, and easily leave the Oilers behind".

When the gap is only 5 points with more than 40 games to play the Oil are still very much in control of their own destiny.

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01-05-2004, 05:04 PM
  #15
Malmo_Mike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oi'll say!
Go over to the Nux' board and say that they don't have a goaltender, see if they don't find that inflammatory. Cloutier has let them down badly in the playoffs so it's not totally inaccurate.

The reasons that he gave are pure speculation to say the least (ok, I'll stick with insipid because it's more accurate), it takes no insight or imagination to say "five of the teams that are ahead of the Oilers could play really well, and easily leave the Oilers behind".

When the gap is only 5 points with more than 40 games to play the Oil are still very much in control of their own destiny.
I understand what you're saying but this thread is about whether or not the Oilers will make the playoffs. This thread is almost entirely composed of speculation.

He's giving his reasons, you're giving your reasons. Maybe the goalie comment wasn't necessary but if that's how he feels we shouldn't have a problem with him expressing that.

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01-05-2004, 05:11 PM
  #16
Oi'll say!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malmo_Mike
if that's how he feels we shouldn't have a problem with him expressing that.
I guess that this is where we differ then. Opinions of that nature aren't graciously received from fans of other teams.

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01-05-2004, 05:11 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oi'll say!
The Oil are actually 7 points out of 6th place, the 4 teams that they'd have to climb over are only 1-5 points ahead. A modest hot streak would be enough to put the Oil in 8th.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/standi...e&seasontype=2

Things don't seem too bad. It's not really the points, but the number of team ahead of us that is troublesome. We can outpace a couple of those teams, but outpacing all four (not to mention the ones close behind) will be a tough task.

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01-05-2004, 05:15 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oi'll say!
I guess that this is where we differ then. Opinions of that nature aren't graciously received from fans of other teams.
Opinions of what nature? That Salo isn't good enough? There alot of people on this board that would agree with Mizral. How do expect him to give an honest assessment without mentioning an important factor--how good our goalie is. Personally, I think Salo can turn around and have a great second half, but it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't. You're acting as if non-Oiler fans can only say good things about the Oilers on these boards.

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01-05-2004, 05:15 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/standi...e&seasontype=2

Things don't seem too bad. It's not really the points, but the number of team ahead of us that is troublesome. We can outpace a couple of those teams, but outpacing all four (not to mention the ones close behind) will be a tough task.
With 43 games to play? You guys are all talking like its April. A lot of hockey to be played.

I believe we are now only 4 points out of a playoff spot. Where are you guys all getting 7?

The battle is far from over.

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01-05-2004, 05:19 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
Things don't seem too bad. It's not really the points, but the number of team ahead of us that is troublesome. We can outpace a couple of those teams, but outpacing all four (not to mention the ones close behind) will be a tough task.
Exactly. The Oilers were due for a hot streak, and now they have it. Teams like Nasvhille and Anaheim will go through a cooling off period, but for the EXACT four teams your chasing to go into the tank is asking for a lot imo.

Add to that Salo's play, which is uneven, and momentai's point wth regard to riding Brewer and Staios, and there's some real question marks.

Doesn't mean we're not cheering, though.

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01-05-2004, 05:22 PM
  #21
hockeyaddict101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Exactly. The Oilers were due for a hot streak, and now they have it. Teams like Nasvhille and Anaheim will go through a cooling off period, but for the EXACT four teams your chasing to go into the tank is asking for a lot imo.

Add to that Salo's play, which is uneven, and momentai's point wth regard to riding Brewer and Staios, and there's some real question marks.

Doesn't mean we're not cheering, though.
If it was 10 to 12 points I would tend to agree but 4?

It doesn't take much to make up 4 points with 43 games left.

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01-05-2004, 05:24 PM
  #22
Oi'll say!
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The last time the Oilers missed the playoffs they were sitting in the top 5 in the league at the 25 game mark.

Calgary had the top team in the league later than that and still went on to miss.

The Avs have trailed us by 5 points at the 60 game mark more than once in recent years and we haven't finished within 5 points of them...


Absolutely nothing is resolved at this point, the Red Wings still need 35 points points to make the playoffs. This is NOT a deep hole. It's more like a wakeup call.

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01-05-2004, 05:26 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaz44
If it was 10 to 12 points I would tend to agree but 4?

It doesn't take much to make up 4 points with 43 games left.
Again, the trouble is not the amount of points. The problem is there are 4 teams between us and a playoff spot (and two close behind) and chances are atleast one or two will play very well in the next 43 games. Is it possible for us to make the playoffs? Yes, but we will have to be at our best, no room for many bad games.

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01-05-2004, 05:31 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
Again, the trouble is not the amount of points. The problem is there are 4 teams between us and a playoff spot (and two close behind) and chances are atleast one or two will play very well in the next 43 games. Is it possible for us to make the playoffs? Yes, but we will have to be at our best, no room for many bad games.
Not a big stretch in 43 games. No the Oilers can't lose too many but their fate is still in their hands.

4 points is not a huge obstacle with that many games left. Guys there is still more than HALF a season left.

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01-05-2004, 05:34 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rage
Opinions of what nature? That Salo isn't good enough? There alot of people on this board that would agree with Mizral. How do expect him to give an honest assessment without mentioning an important factor--how good our goalie is. Personally, I think Salo can turn around and have a great second half, but it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't. You're acting as if non-Oiler fans can only say good things about the Oilers on these boards.
For an opposing fan to say that the goalie is struggling is an observation, to say that we haven't got a goalie is inflammatory. Kapiche?

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