anything to start up a little real hockey talk.. thought this would be interesting;
every year in preseason i play a mental game to determine what i think our offense will most likely do in the upcoming season.. the way i do this is simply guess what i think each player will wind up scoring.. and then add up the numbers.. last year i thought we'd probably be around 275 after adding up the numbers... we actually wound up pretty close at 266.. i had guessed 250 the year before and we wound up at 253.. usually i find this to be a pretty effective method of guessing..
here's my best guess, throw yours out there;
sullivan 25.. (am assuming he misses 10-15 games again and it lowers his total)
arnott 30.. (i think he will lead the team in goal scoring this year, and hopefully stay a little healthier)
legwand 25.. (this number could be more if he finds a role on the first pp unit, but not having kariya could hurt as well)
radulov 30... (will struggle at times in the typical 2nd year slump many good players go thru, but more ice time and pp time will add up)
erat 20... (has the talent to put up more, but i simply don't know what we really will see from this guy after last year)
dumont 20 (can pretty much count on 20-25 from this guy)
150 from the top two lines therefore (if they stay largely healthy)
fiddler 10 (if he plays 3rd line wing, less if he gets mainly 4th line time)
bonk 12.. (hard to predict this guy in this role, going to be hard to put up numbers here)
gelinas 12.. (talented but might not get the pp time he's had in the past)
ortmeyer 5.. (more ice time, more quality minutes, but no demonstrated scoring ability)
tootoo 5.. (i just cann't see more)
smithson 5.. (less ice time on lines that can score)
hordichuk 2 (blind squirrel theory)
nichol 5.. (less 3rd line type time, going to be harder for him to score on the 4th)
so a total of 206 from our forward corps
weber 15 (just sounds about right)
zidlicky 10 (a small rebound)
suter 10 (growing offensively)
hamhuis 5 (could be more with some expanded pp time)
devries 2 (just don't see many offensive chances here for him)
zanon 2 (blind squirrel at it again)
so i come up with an expected total of 250 goals for this next year if we head into opening night with this lineup (disclaimer here if we make any other big move), and as long as the major guys stay largely healthy.. sounds about right to me as well, less than last year, and a little bit behind the 05-06 squad, but close offensively..
health of the top 6 guys of course is the key... and radulov is the wildcard in the situation in my mind (he could score anywhere between 15-35 i'm thinking)
anyway, i always find this a fun mental exercise.. throw out your guesses here
sullivan 22....I think he will miss more than 10-15 games.
arnott 29....hopefully more healthy and will be relied on even more than last year.
legwand 30.....he may struggle early without Kariya, but with increased PP time and this being his contract year, I think he actually shoots more, and scores more
radulov 32... I agree he will be streaky, but he will light the lamp.....assists won't be spectacular, but he'll light it
erat 22...he is in a contract year too, I think he turns it up from last year even more
dumont 27 .....contract year, I think he will have an incredible year
162 from our top to forward lines, 12 more than you P303
fiddler 6...he'll muck in less this year as his days playing on the top two lines are over
bonk 11.....I think he will see Fiddler's top two line time from last year due to injuries
gelinas 11.. won't get the same PP time, and also won't play 82 games for a 3rd year in a row at 37 years old
ortmeyer 3.. he will be killing penalties and block shots and being loved by the fans, but not lighting the lamp
tootoo 3.. he won't see the ice time that he did even last year, I got a feeling he will be moved at some point
smithson 4.. (less ice time on lines that can score)---agreed
hordichuk 2 (blind squirrel theory)----agreed
nichol 5.. (less 3rd line type time, going to be harder for him to score on the 4th)---agreed
so now a total of 207 from our forward corps, from me [P303 had 206]
weber 22...more solid PP and one of the few that showed he was willing to shoot the freaking puck last year, his numbers will continue to rise
zidlicky 15 ...I see him rebounding in a huge way with Kimmo gone
suter 10 (growing offensively)---agreed
hamhuis 6 .....I see more of a year like 2 years ago
devries 3....hard to see him playing 82 games for the 3rd year in a row
zanon 2 (blind squirrel at it again)...agreed
61 from our d corp.
That gives me 268.....I see more coming from our top two lines, less from the third and fourth and more coming from our dcorp than you 303.
Maybe a little too optimisitic, I'll admit...but I think we are going to see some young guys really step up and come into their own.
Sully 32- 80 odd games for sully this time around.
Arnott 21- with an increase in assists, points leader IMO.
Leggy 17- I think Kariya's loss will affect Legwand's goal totals, assists up though.
Radulov 36- increased ice time = increased production.
Erat 21 - Could be more, who knows? Not I.
Dumont 28- Will score some big G's for us come March-April.
Bonk 14- Will fire early.
Ortmeyer 7- All of em SH!
Tootoo 6- 3 in 1 game
Nichol 6- comes up big for the 4th line.
Weber 23- shows that laser more often and in some crucial situations from the point this season.
Zids 7- then traded at the deadline.
Suter 9- starts to come into his own.
Hammer 12- 5 or 6 goals late in the season.
Zanon 1- but a big one.
Mason 1- YEAH on E.NET in mid december while i am in town!
Edit: Added text as I have more tome to elaborate more..
Arnott - 31 (Should be a go to guy, especially on the PP)
Dumont - 26 (Contract year. If this is the same Dumont we saw towards the end of the year..)
Radulov - 26 (Hard one here. For one, having a full season and increased play time would suggest more goals, but I could see him having a slump at times too.)
Legwand - 25 (I wanted to put him closer to 30 due to contract year, but we'll see how he does this year with Radulov)
Sullivan - 23 (I'm being optimistic on this one, I have a bad feeling this isn't going to be the same Sullivan)
Erat - 15 (If he's on a line with Radulov, I see Radulov getting most of the goals on this line. Prove me wrong Martin)
Gelinas - 13 (New comer on the team, consistent with his averages.)
Bonk - 11 (Can't see him getting much more then this)
Fiddler - 7 (Hopefully we won't see Fiddler on the top two lines anymore with Bonk and Gelinas being able to move up)
Nichol - 6 (Might grab some from PK time)
Smithson - 4 (Can't see him playing that much this year, will chip in a few)
Ortmeyer - 4 (I see him not having much offensive responsibility and chipping in a few)
Hordichuk - 2 (Energy line chip in)
Tootoo - 2 (Energy line chip in)
Weber - 14 (Hopefully he and Zidlicky can get some chemistry going)
Zidlicky - 12 (Hopefully a rebound year for Marek. He'll have all the opportunity with Kimmo gone to step it up)
Suter - 9
Hamhuis - 6
Klein/Koistinen - 4 (Not sure how much playing time either receives. Obviously could go up depending on how our defensive situation works it self out)
de Vries - 2 (not expecting much here)
Zanon - 2
That puts us around 244. Seems a bit low, but I don't see us being as offensive as last year, especially with Sullivan likely going into the season sluggish and possibly still feeling the effects of surgery, and with Kariya, Timonen and Hartnell gone. However, I think we will give up less goals too.
I think about it more from a top down view. I would ask, where is this team likely to rank and what does a team need to score to wind up there.
I still think we are a playoff team when compared to the rest of the West, most likely in the 5-7 spot.
Based on last year, I would say 225 will be needed to make the playoffs. Dallas and Vancouver did it last year with 217 while LA missed with 223 but these seem like they could be outliers for the upcoming year.
The prior year, goals were inflated (IMO) with players and refs adjusting to the new rules. In that year, 250 was the magic number. I think those days are gone.
Interestingly, the middle of the pack (4th and 5th place) was essentially unchanged at 255 and 253. The top two (1st and 2nd) fell off from 290 avg to 267 avg and the bottom two (7th and 8th) fell off from 250 avg to 220 avg.
In fact, I think the middle of the pack goals will drop this year as D continues to adjust to the new rules. My guess is 240 will get you 4th or 5th place.
Then I look at the Preds and think:
1. Our 253 in 05-06 was inflated by 10-20 goals just from the effect of the new rules.
2. Our 266 in 06-07 came from a deeper, stronger lineup with less question marks surrounding it.
3. Last year's team was built to win by scoring.
In the end, I think we are more of a 235-245 team.
On a player by player basis, I would line up most closely with Stranger. I would guess lower than most people for Radulov (big wildcard though), Sully (due to injury), Arnott and Weber. I would go a bit higher than most with Suter, Bonk, and (yes) Tootoo.