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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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Old
08-26-2007, 11:55 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I don't want to speak for Cloned, but I'd say it's fairly obvious that it's his opinion. However, it's based in just as much statistical analysis as the argument for him being a perrenial 60+ point player.
As I said, it's my opinion -- which is formed based on an amalgamation of the stat analyses that I see, the observations which I've made, etc.

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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Agreed, but who's to say which is better than the other??? I for one would not.
I haven't said anything about which one is better, BBO.

I consider all of them, and admit my bias towards the stats.

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08-26-2007, 11:59 PM
  #127
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I should add that my "prediction" of Schremp's peak is actually not that far off your "prediction" of Schremp's worst -- which probably represents a large portion of the range of opinions the NHL scouts had of him on draft day.

I'm not saying my prediction is any more valid than yours, or anyone else's, for that matter.

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08-27-2007, 12:01 AM
  #128
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Thanks for your opinion, what areas of his game did you feel that he needs to work on the most???
the most work would definitely be his defence. granted he is not known as a defensive forward, but once the puck got turned over in the offensive end he wouldnt be in a rush to get back and play a little D.

he is obviously very talented offensively, he didnt do great offensively last season, he passed up a few shots to try to set up a teammate but im sure he will continue to adjust to the pro level and settle in offensively i just want to see him back check a little more.

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08-27-2007, 12:03 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Marty0wns30 View Post
the most work would definitely be his defence. granted he is not known as a defensive forward, but once the puck got turned over in the offensive end he wouldnt be in a rush to get back and play a little D.

he is obviously very talented offensively, he didnt do great offensively last season, he passed up a few shots to try to set up a teammate but im sure he will continue to adjust to the pro level and settle in offensively i just want to see him back check a little more.
Would you say that he improved in that area towards the end of the year??? We all know that he won't soon be a Selke nominee, he just needs to show effort and be as solid as he can be in that area.

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08-27-2007, 12:05 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
As I said, it's my opinion -- which is formed based on an amalgamation of the stat analyses that I see, the observations which I've made, etc.
I know. My post was more to point out that while you didn't give an explaination to why you didn't think he'd be a 60+ point player (in that post anyway), nobody has been able to give any reasons as to why he would be.

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08-27-2007, 12:07 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I know. My post was more to point out that while you didn't give an explaination to why you didn't think he'd be a 60+ point player (in that post anyway), nobody has been able to give any reasons as to why he would be.
Understood.

Clearly, LT needs to post more to generate more of this kind of debate as opposed to the "point prediction thread #5, set your lines here!!!" we've been getting lately.

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08-27-2007, 12:11 AM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Understood.

Clearly, LT needs to post more to generate more of this kind of debate as opposed to the "point prediction thread #5, set your lines here!!!" we've been getting lately.
I'd say that 85% of this discussion has been good, let's put it to a poll and see what the rest of us thinks!!!

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08-27-2007, 12:13 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I'd say that 85% of this discussion has been good, let's put it to a poll and see what the rest of us thinks!!!
I'll let you do it, IF you take out the cane spider crawling across my monitor.

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08-27-2007, 12:23 AM
  #134
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Zach Parise Center Height 5.11 -- Weight 185
Mike Comrie Center Height 5.10 -- Weight 172
Rob Schremp Center Height 5.11 -- Weight 200


Age 18
--------
Parise NCAA 39gp 26-35-61
Comrie NCAA 42gp 19-25-44
Schremp OHL 62GP 41-49-90

Age 19
--------
Parise NCAA 37gp 23-32-55
Comrie NCAA 40gp 24-35-59
Schremp CHL 57GP 57-88-145

Age 20
--------
Parise AHL 73gp 18-40-58
Comrie CHL 37gp 39-40-79 **NHL 41GP 8-14-22
Schremp AHL 69GP 17-36-53

Age 21
--------
Parise NHL 81gp 14-18-32
Comrie NHL 82gp 33-27-60
Schremp (n/a)

Age 22
--------
Parise NHL 82gp 31-31-62
Comrie NHL 69gp 20-31-51
Schremp (n/a)


These three players have been pretty much neck and neck through their years. Its a nice touch to see Comries stats from the NCAA and CHL within the same season. It adds a bit of further reference between both him and Schremp, and transitively Schremp/Parise.

Noteable here being that Schremps 19 year old CHL rates were higher than Comries rates as a 20 year old. Doesnt carry too much meaning considering theres no reference to PP and overall TOI, but its not a stretch to assume Comrie (kootenay) and Schremp (London) recieved comparable amounts of each.

Comrie played as an NHLer the rest of his 20yr season, Schremp however kept pace using Desjardins NHL-E in what was a struggle during his year in WBS.

Comrie slipped a little as more was expected of him at age 22, after his 31-31-62 season and weights departure. He broke out a year ahead of Parise though and Zach faces much the same this season possibly following his stats and Gomez's departure.

Beyond that comparison, you get into the territory of what makes a player valuable to winning, and how valuable each respective player is to their team. Comrie's lustre has diminished signifcantly through time. He has never really taken that next step and has hovered as a pretty one dimensional NHL journeyman. Parise is at the juncture now to make the next step, a lot of his supporters like what they see from him, and its possible that his attitude will lift him to overcome being undersized and an average skater. Time will tell.

Schremp has given no reason to think he cant produce the same numbers as the two comparables here during his next two seasons if put in a similiar role.

And if he does, will he be Mike Comrie? Or can he be what everyone seems to be convinced that Parise will be?

Its irresponsible to suggest he will be more than those two players, and expect to be taken seriously, theres simply nothing to support that right now. Its also irresponsible to say he cant do what either of those guys have done... without getting into defining his role and using that as a means for argument. Doesnt work in this case, as in the spirit of using comparables, Comrie/Parise enjoyed very similar roles, we must consider Schremp being afforded the same if we truely want to contrast their likelihood for success.

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08-27-2007, 12:25 AM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
I don't want to speak for Cloned, but I'd say it's fairly obvious that it's his opinion. However, it's based in just as much statistical analysis as the argument for him being a perrenial 60+ point player.
It really wasn't obvious to me, and it's totally fair. I really don't have an issue with whatever opinion somebody holds as to what Schremp will do this year or in his career, save for those that write him off completely or anoint him already.

I'm not a heavy-duty stats guy nor a heavy-duty prospects guy. Where I'm coming in here is looking at Lowetide's analysis as it pertains to something he says is discussed here - the opinion that Schremp should be getting NHL minutes with quality linemates. From it, I can conclude (or agree with the conclusion) that Schremp wasn't NHL ready last year. I can also conclude that he is behind the developmental curve that Mike Comrie was on at the same age.

I can't conclude, however, that Schremp should not be getting NHL minutes this year (either as a means to further his development or to contribute), which seems to be the topic sentence of the article. The end of the article (Mount Everest) makes a presumption that Schremp will either perform at the same rate he did last year, or not show considerable improvement. Now, this may be true. More to the point, it may be supported by the analysis...but I don't see where. And my god, it is very possible that I missed it. This is not my first language.

I also can't conclude that Schremp's performance (as analyzed) means that, in the future, in the NHL, he will be the sort of player who regularly scores (x) or between (x-y). Now, this wasn't part of Lowetide's analysis, but came out of the conversation here. For the same reasons as in the previous paragraph, I'm wondering what I'm missing. Is static or moderate progression something that is just standard? I think we (or I) need to see some sort of rational consideration of how much we can expect Schremp to improve (or not) before I can see that we're looking at a supported conclusion, even if it's just "players of Schremp's caliber/type tend to improve at (this) rate from age 20 to 21, or rookie-pro to sophomore-pro."

If I'm not missing anything - and bear in mind I'm not coming at these arguments with a point of view of my own other than "I don't follow the logic that enables the conclusion to be supported by the argument" (Certainly not "Schremp-rules MotherF*****s!!") - then I don't really know what to take from the analysis.

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08-27-2007, 12:27 AM
  #136
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I think it's incredible how much we're all assuming based on one season.

What about something like... not likely to make the team right now but who the hell knows what he'll do?

Schremp could have another similar year or he could end up with 120 points. How about we give a _prospect_ more than one pro season before deciding his future.

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08-27-2007, 12:31 AM
  #137
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Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
It really wasn't obvious to me, and it's totally fair. I really don't have an issue with whatever opinion somebody holds as to what Schremp will do this year or in his career, save for those that write him off completely or anoint him already.
That's fair. I haven't written him off yet. To the contrary, I think he'll cover the bet for where he was drafted. But I also don't think he'll be a gamebreaker. Some might call that opinion the safe play, I just call it my opinion.

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I'm not a heavy-duty stats guy nor a heavy-duty prospects guy. Where I'm coming in here is looking at Lowetide's analysis as it pertains to something he says is discussed here - the opinion that Schremp should be getting NHL minutes with quality linemates. From it, I can conclude (or agree with the conclusion) that Schremp wasn't NHL ready last year. I can also conclude that he is behind the developmental curve that Mike Comrie was on at the same age.

I can't conclude, however, that Schremp should not be getting NHL minutes this year (either as a means to further his development or to contribute), which seems to be the topic sentence of the article. The end of the article (Mount Everest) makes a presumption that Schremp will either perform at the same rate he did last year, or not show considerable improvement. Now, this may be true. More to the point, it may be supported by the analysis...but I don't see where. And my god, it is very possible that I missed it. This is not my first language.

I also can't conclude that Schremp's performance (as analyzed) means that, in the future, in the NHL, he will be the sort of player who regularly scores (x) or between (x-y). Now, this wasn't part of Lowetide's analysis, but came out of the conversation here. For the same reasons as in the previous paragraph, I'm wondering what I'm missing.

If I'm not missing anything - and bear in mind I'm not coming at these arguments with a point of view of my own other than "I don't follow the logic that enables the conclusion to be supported by the argument" (Certainly not "Schremp-rules MotherF*****s!!") - then I don't really know what to take from the analysis.
I think dynastydays' post above is a good one -- it takes the stats and equivalencies into the context of icetime, role and potential development of each one of the players he's described. Comrie blossomed, then failed. Parise is at the stage where he'll continue up or follow Comrie down. Schremp is at a stage before both of them.

My "conclusion" (which is kind of a bad word to use imo because it implies a factual basis, it's more a prediction based on opinion) that Schremp will score X number of points during his prime is simply based on my opinion. That opinion contains portions of stats, observation and feelings. Nothing more, nothing less.


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08-27-2007, 12:33 AM
  #138
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I think it's incredible how much we're all assuming based on one season.

What about something like... not likely to make the team right now but who the hell knows what he'll do?

Schremp could have another similar year or he could end up with 120 points. How about we give a _prospect_ more than one pro season before deciding his future.
It's only speculation -- guided by different methodolgies, but all of it, is mostly harmless.

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08-27-2007, 12:34 AM
  #139
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He can juggle a golf ball with his driver and then hit it REALLY far out of mid air!

CAN SHAUN NOSCORECOFF DO THAT? CAN HOMEWRECKER COMRIE DO THAT? CAN DOUG (CAN'T THINK OF ANYTHING FUNNY TO INSERT HERE) WEIGHT DO THAT?

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08-27-2007, 12:38 AM
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Forgot to put this in my post to you, JonQuixote: I'm not saying dynastydays' post should be your opinion, I'm suggesting that it can be used as one part in forming your *own* opinion.

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08-27-2007, 12:44 AM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
My "conclusion" (which is kind of a bad word to use imo because it implies a factual basis, it's more a prediction based on opinion) that Schremp will score X number of points during his prime is simply based on my opinion. That opinion contains portions of stats, observation and feelings. Nothing more, nothing less.
And that's fair. I guess one of the things I was responding to in your posts and Lowetide's blog entry (man, I really don't mean to be picking on him) is the opinion being couched in "hard" terms. "Schremp won't" and so forth.

But I guess I of all people shouldn't be keying into that type of presentation the way I have.

Quote:
EDIT: I'm not saying dynastydays' post should be your opinion, I'm suggesting that it can be used as one part in forming your *own* opinion.
Well, if I were to put a lot of weight in that, I'd look at the way Schremp lines up with Parise and probably see *more* similarities there than I do with Comrie. And then I'd think that it might be best for everybody involved to get Schremp his 13 minutes of NHL ice a night this year and emerge as a 30 goal scorer the next.

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08-27-2007, 12:49 AM
  #142
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Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
And that's fair. I guess one of the things I was responding to in your posts and Lowetide's blog entry (man, I really don't mean to be picking on him) is the opinion being couched in "hard" terms. "Schremp won't" and so forth.

But I guess I of all people shouldn't be keying into that type of presentation the way I have.
I try hard to qualify all my opinion statements as such by saying things like "I think" or "imo". But we all sometimes make bold declarative statements unintetionally.

Quote:
Well, if I were to put a lot of weight in that, I'd look at the way Schremp lines up with Parise and probably see *more* similarities there than I do with Comrie. And then I'd think that it might be best for everybody involved to get Schremp his 13 minutes of NHL ice a night this year and emerge as a 30 goal scorer the next.
If you do what Lowetide did and take all the Desjardins' numbers, it'll lower Schremp's OHL numbers. But it will also make his AHL season a fairly decent one, on par with the 20 year old NHL numbers of players like the Sedins. That's where you go with your gut and observations (or at least that's where I went).

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08-27-2007, 12:53 AM
  #143
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Forgot to put this in my post to you, JonQuixote: I'm not saying dynastydays' post should be your opinion, I'm suggesting that it can be used as one part in forming your *own* opinion.
Jeez, I don't know if I really want to have an opinion on this. Some jerk will just come along and start trying to poke holes in it by asking potentially unanswerable questions and parsing my sentences.

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08-27-2007, 12:56 AM
  #144
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Jeez, I don't know
Don't know what?

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if I really want to have an opinion on this.
On what? You'll have to be a little more specific.

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Some jerk will just come along
Ouch, that hurts man.

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and start trying to poke holes in it by asking potentially unanswerable questions
Who's Jon Quixote?

What's the meaning of life?

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and parsing my sentences.
I'm sorry, where were we?



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08-27-2007, 12:58 AM
  #145
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What's the meaning of life?
I know this one! And I'm getting up at 7 AM tomorrow for my first real fix of it in months!

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08-27-2007, 12:59 AM
  #146
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Would you say that he improved in that area towards the end of the year??? We all know that he won't soon be a Selke nominee, he just needs to show effort and be as solid as he can be in that area.
I watched some WBS games and I thought it was night and day in the last 20-25 games or so he seemed to be getting it and was back checking and was going into the tough areas after the puck. He looked like a lot different player to me defensively. He still has some work to do but honestly the situation he was put in and the rough ride he got from the coach was probably exactly what he needed and coach Richards did a fine job of eliminating a lot of the parts of his games that are ineffective at the pro level. JMO.


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08-27-2007, 01:00 AM
  #147
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I know this one! And I'm getting up at 7 AM tomorrow for my first real fix of it in months!
Is it a bad thing that life and death are both defined by work?

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08-27-2007, 01:08 AM
  #148
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Kidding aside... as I said earlier (and I'm sure is abundantly clear to anybody who is unfortunate enough to pay attention), I'm not a stats guy. Both in terms of my ability to play with them in my head (math is hard) and my willingness to put extra reliance on them in regards to figuring out this game of ours. Hey, I loved MONEYBALL but right now Billy Beane has as many World Series rings as a manager as I do. And that's freakin' baseball, which will one day be played by supercomputers.

But is there a statistical method of determination - allowing for exceptions and surprises, but somewhat reliable - that determines exactly how players, or players of certain types or ages, will develop or progress on average?

Because it seems to me, in discussions like this, that's what's missing, and that's what's most germaine. Sure we can find Parises or Boyes or Sedins or Comries to compare, but that's anecdotal and for every suggestion, we can provide a contradiction.

When we put the calculators to last year, what do they say Schremp will do this year - in the AHL or the NHL?

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08-27-2007, 01:14 AM
  #149
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Is it a bad thing that life and death are both defined by work?
Defined for you by work!

For me, by my tendency to unconsciously hit the off-button on my alarm.

Exactly what that tendency is, statistically, I really don't know. Do Lowetide or Desjardins take requests?

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08-27-2007, 01:17 AM
  #150
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Kidding aside... as I said earlier (and I'm sure is abundantly clear to anybody who is unfortunate enough to pay attention), I'm not a stats guy. Both in terms of my ability to play with them in my head (math is hard) and my willingness to put extra reliance on them in regards to figuring out this game of ours. Hey, I loved MONEYBALL but right now Billy Beane has as many World Series rings as a manager as I do. And that's freakin' baseball, which will one day be played by supercomputers.
I've often criticized the stats guys here as well -- especially on the Penner OS. It's a good tool to use, but I agree it's not everything. Nothing really makes it more valid than observation, except for the intrinsic classification of mathematical analysis vs. observation in terms of knowledge (I could get into it, but it would bore everyone even moreso I'm sure ).

It all comes down to opinion -- everyone has one. Your opinion of stats will impact your opinion of what the stats say about a player. And same goes for observation. And so on. Ultimately everyone has their own opinion formed by whatever combination of whatever factors they see fit to use.

Quote:
But is there a statistical method of determination - allowing for exceptions and surprises, but somewhat reliable - that determines exactly how players, or players of certain types or ages, will develop or progress on average?

Because it seems to me, in discussions like this, that's what's missing, and that's what's most germaine. Sure we can find Parises or Boyes or Sedins or Comries to compare, but that's anecdotal and for every suggestion, we can provide a contradiction.

When we put the calculators to last year, what do they say Schremp will do this year - in the AHL or the NHL?
It's easier in baseball because there's more stats tracked and because of the nature of the game -- primarily a one-v-one matchup between batter and pitcher, catcher and runner, etc. But you're right -- AFAIK, for hockey, there is no conventionally accepted method for accurately (at least what I consider as accurate anyways) predicting a player's future production based purely on past statistical performance AND divided into certain types or ages. There might be one, but I haven't seen it used.

It's easier to predict a team's performance, and several stat guys have been pretty dynamite with playoff predictions.

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