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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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Old
08-27-2007, 01:18 AM
  #151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dynastydays View Post
Age 20
--------
Parise AHL 73gp 18-40-58
Comrie CHL 37gp 39-40-79 **NHL 41GP 8-14-22
Schremp AHL 69GP 17-36-53
Maybe NJ should've just given up on Parise since he wasn't a 1PPG player in the AHL at 20 according to some people's opinions on this board!!! In all honesty DD, you and I are seeing more eye to eye the last 4 months or so than I ever could've imagined. The fact is that NJ put him into a nice spot at 21, I doubt that Schremp gets the same luxury. But all that he can do as a player is work on his game and continue to improve until he becomes the best that he can be. Whether he starts the year in the NHL or tearing it up while improving his all around game in the AHL, either way will only help his game.

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08-27-2007, 01:21 AM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Oilerdiehard View Post
I watched some WBS games and I thought it was night and day in the last 20-25 games or so he seemed to be getting and was back checking and was going into the tough areas after the puck. He looked like a lot different player to me defensively. He still has some work to do but honestly the situation he was put in and the rough ride he got from the coach was probably exactly what he needed and coach Richards did a fine job of eliminating a lot of the parts of his games that are ineffective at the pro level. JMO.
Even though we've butted heads a few times in the past, and aren't eye to eye on Cogs just yet, I always value your opinion. You don't sugar coat anything, and you look at things objectively. I look forward to this up-coming season having some of us watch games at the same time and see how similar/different our opinions are of the same games!!! The biggest fireworks maybe still on its way!!!

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08-27-2007, 01:30 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I've often criticized the stats guys here as well -- especially on the Penner OS. It's a good tool to use, but I agree it's not everything. Nothing really makes it more valid than observation, except for the intrinsic classification of mathematical analysis vs. observation in terms of knowledge (I could get into it, but it would bore everyone even moreso I'm sure ).

It all comes down to opinion -- everyone has one. Your opinion of stats will impact your opinion of what the stats say about a player. And same goes for observation. And so on. Ultimately everyone has their own opinion formed by whatever combination of whatever factors they see fit to use.



It's easier in baseball because there's more stats tracked and because of the nature of the game -- primarily a one-v-one matchup between batter and pitcher, catcher and runner, etc. But you're right -- AFAIK, for hockey, there is no conventionally accepted method for accurately (at least what I consider as accurate anyways) predicting a player's future production based purely on past statistical performance AND divided into certain types or ages. There might be one, but I haven't seen it used.
Actually the PPG by 20 is a pretty good indicator as provided by Igor. Mudcrutch79 or MikeComriesGhost or Tyler, or whatever has a pretty good indicator of a Goalies AHL record as a 21 year old is pretty indicitive of future performance. The Elite stand out pretty damned early and there's a reason why....because they're freakin' elite.

Although I'd still like to know the developmental curve of the lefty vs. righty in the goalie deparrment....also where the next Fleury resides. Alas we shall never know.

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08-27-2007, 01:30 AM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
It all comes down to opinion -- everyone has one. Your opinion of stats will impact your opinion of what the stats say about a player. And same goes for observation. And so on. Ultimately everyone has their own opinion formed by whatever combination of whatever factors they see fit to use.
I don't mean to criticize the stats guys (except for the ones who lean on them in such a way you can tell that's all they're going by - but that has nothing to do with this convo). I think good analysis is relevant and I'm sure as statistical analysis progresses it'll become more and more relevant.

I'm a logic guy (I think). I'm sure there's a potential analysis out there that *can* answer all the questions I've asked and zillions of others that I haven't. Maybe not determinatively, but in a way that narrows down the likelihoods considerably. Going back to the Lowetide blog, I may have issues with the conclusion as it pertains to the argument, but that doesn't mean I think the conclusion itself is wrong. If I were laying money down...

I'm not a Moneyball guy, and I come at those reports with a lot of cynicism, but if I were a GM or Pres or owner, I damned sure would have a few of them on staff.

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08-27-2007, 01:42 AM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Maybe NJ should've just given up on Parise since he wasn't a 1PPG player in the AHL at 20 according to some people's opinions on this board!!! In all honesty DD, you and I are seeing more eye to eye the last 4 months or so than I ever could've imagined. The fact is that NJ put him into a nice spot at 21, I doubt that Schremp gets the same luxury. But all that he can do as a player is work on his game and continue to improve until he becomes the best that he can be. Whether he starts the year in the NHL or tearing it up while improving his all around game in the AHL, either way will only help his game.
NJ had no choice as they were over the cap and the only way to get under it is to play Parise.

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08-27-2007, 01:46 AM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Maybe NJ should've just given up on Parise since he wasn't a 1PPG player in the AHL at 20 according to some people's opinions on this board!!! In all honesty DD, you and I are seeing more eye to eye the last 4 months or so than I ever could've imagined. The fact is that NJ put him into a nice spot at 21, I doubt that Schremp gets the same luxury. But all that he can do as a player is work on his game and continue to improve until he becomes the best that he can be. Whether he starts the year in the NHL or tearing it up while improving his all around game in the AHL, either way will only help his game.
Parise played in the SuperAHL in 2004-05. Let's try to maintain a certain degree of perspective here.

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08-27-2007, 01:55 AM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Boilers View Post
Actually the PPG by 20 is a pretty good indicator as provided by Igor. Mudcrutch79 or MikeComriesGhost or Tyler, or whatever has a pretty good indicator of a Goalies AHL record as a 21 year old is pretty indicitive of future performance. The Elite stand out pretty damned early and there's a reason why....because they're freakin' elite.

Although I'd still like to know the developmental curve of the lefty vs. righty in the goalie deparrment....also where the next Fleury resides. Alas we shall never know.
That doesn't indicate/predict exact future performance, which was what JQ was looking for.

The PPG in the AHL at age 20 is only a line in the sand, so to speak, to separate the players who probably will be something, and those who probably won't.

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08-27-2007, 01:56 AM
  #158
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The chemistry of Schremp with Nilsson definitley sways my opinion towards Schremp being a guy who can deal with high end talent. The coach lightens up on the reigns and he performs top notch to me speaks volumes, they're taking an unconventional approach with him. He might not be ELITE, but I don't believe he's that far from it. Penner still fits no real tried and true mold either though, so while the stats guys try and figure out where the hell that guy came from I'll just watch Schremp rack up the points. On both sides of the puck ...at first. Honestly, at the end of the day, I believe Robbie will "get it" more than Pouliot. There's nothing that can satisfy confidence and self-betterment than hard work. Look no further than Stoll for that, and his hands aren't half of what Schremp's are, even though the numbers at the age of 20 are close, real close.

So if Schremp is a Stoll clone, is Schremp still a bust?


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08-27-2007, 01:57 AM
  #159
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Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
I don't mean to criticize the stats guys (except for the ones who lean on them in such a way you can tell that's all they're going by - but that has nothing to do with this convo). I think good analysis is relevant and I'm sure as statistical analysis progresses it'll become more and more relevant.

I'm a logic guy (I think). I'm sure there's a potential analysis out there that *can* answer all the questions I've asked and zillions of others that I haven't. Maybe not determinatively, but in a way that narrows down the likelihoods considerably. Going back to the Lowetide blog, I may have issues with the conclusion as it pertains to the argument, but that doesn't mean I think the conclusion itself is wrong. If I were laying money down...

I'm not a Moneyball guy, and I come at those reports with a lot of cynicism, but if I were a GM or Pres or owner, I damned sure would have a few of them on staff.
Well said, I think we all have our own opinions on numerical analyses. In the end, I think they are a useful tool, but not the entire box unto itself.

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08-27-2007, 05:37 AM
  #160
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I done read about 5 pages worth of comments, took me awhile.

This **** is getting out of hand.

Edmonton Oilers fan statistical analysis is like no other.

Y'all gonna (over)do this till the death of it, for real.

Let the kids play hockey, whatever happens happens.

I for one, think he will have success at the pro level.

He has heart, a willingness to continually learn, a passion for the game and loads of skill.

Hold on folks, hold on.

I know everyones desperate for hockey and conversation, but some of this **** is goin overboard.

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08-27-2007, 08:31 AM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Maybe NJ should've just given up on Parise since he wasn't a 1PPG player in the AHL at 20 according to some people's opinions on this board!!! In all honesty DD, you and I are seeing more eye to eye the last 4 months or so than I ever could've imagined. The fact is that NJ put him into a nice spot at 21, I doubt that Schremp gets the same luxury. But all that he can do as a player is work on his game and continue to improve until he becomes the best that he can be. Whether he starts the year in the NHL or tearing it up while improving his all around game in the AHL, either way will only help his game.
I think its more of a case of your expectations being lowered significantly. I've tried to be as rational as possible on the subject, which is why we bumped heads so much in the first place. I've never really flip flopped on the subject.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
Parise played in the SuperAHL in 2004-05. Let's try to maintain a certain degree of perspective here.
In fairness, I knew this was going to be suggested, and poked through the stats from that AHL season. Its messy stuff at best, but when you say 'maintain a certain degree of perspective', I think it adds perspective for sure. We are speaking in terms of probability here afterall. Simply converting rates from a single season sample, and contrasting two players, added perspective in much the same way.

To add a bit more perspective in terms of quality of opposition, and quality of linemates, I figured I would post the top 5 scoring for each of the teams in Parises division during the 2004-05 AHL season. They play a weighted divisional schedule by my memory, so it should constitute a reasonable picture of Parises existence within the super ahl.
Attached Images
File Type: gif leaders.gif‎ (45.8 KB, 30 views)

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08-27-2007, 12:20 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
And what has Cogs proven thus far to already toss Schremp under the bus??? Better potentially offensively at ES??? I could go with that (game breaking speed helps in every situation), but IMO he's not the player that Robbie is on the PP, nor does he have as good of a shot, nor IMO is he as good of a passer.
I'm with you on this one BBO as well. Also with the talent of both Cogs and Schremp wouldn't it make a lot of sense to start introducing Pouliot to time in the NHL playing on the wing. That way we do not have to lose either pouliot or Schremp. I think they both would be good together.

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08-27-2007, 12:24 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by dynastydays View Post
Zach Parise Center Height 5.11 -- Weight 185
Mike Comrie Center Height 5.10 -- Weight 172
Rob Schremp Center Height 5.11 -- Weight 200


Age 18
--------
Parise NCAA 39gp 26-35-61
Comrie NCAA 42gp 19-25-44
Schremp OHL 62GP 41-49-90

Age 19
--------
Parise NCAA 37gp 23-32-55
Comrie NCAA 40gp 24-35-59
Schremp CHL 57GP 57-88-145

Age 20
--------
Parise AHL 73gp 18-40-58
Comrie CHL 37gp 39-40-79 **NHL 41GP 8-14-22
Schremp AHL 69GP 17-36-53

Age 21
--------
Parise NHL 81gp 14-18-32
Comrie NHL 82gp 33-27-60
Schremp (n/a)

Age 22
--------
Parise NHL 82gp 31-31-62
Comrie NHL 69gp 20-31-51
Schremp (n/a)


These three players have been pretty much neck and neck through their years. Its a nice touch to see Comries stats from the NCAA and CHL within the same season. It adds a bit of further reference between both him and Schremp, and transitively Schremp/Parise.

Noteable here being that Schremps 19 year old CHL rates were higher than Comries rates as a 20 year old. Doesnt carry too much meaning considering theres no reference to PP and overall TOI, but its not a stretch to assume Comrie (kootenay) and Schremp (London) recieved comparable amounts of each.

Comrie played as an NHLer the rest of his 20yr season, Schremp however kept pace using Desjardins NHL-E in what was a struggle during his year in WBS.

Comrie slipped a little as more was expected of him at age 22, after his 31-31-62 season and weights departure. He broke out a year ahead of Parise though and Zach faces much the same this season possibly following his stats and Gomez's departure.

Beyond that comparison, you get into the territory of what makes a player valuable to winning, and how valuable each respective player is to their team. Comrie's lustre has diminished signifcantly through time. He has never really taken that next step and has hovered as a pretty one dimensional NHL journeyman. Parise is at the juncture now to make the next step, a lot of his supporters like what they see from him, and its possible that his attitude will lift him to overcome being undersized and an average skater. Time will tell.

Schremp has given no reason to think he cant produce the same numbers as the two comparables here during his next two seasons if put in a similiar role.

And if he does, will he be Mike Comrie? Or can he be what everyone seems to be convinced that Parise will be?

Its irresponsible to suggest he will be more than those two players, and expect to be taken seriously, theres simply nothing to support that right now. Its also irresponsible to say he cant do what either of those guys have done... without getting into defining his role and using that as a means for argument. Doesnt work in this case, as in the spirit of using comparables, Comrie/Parise enjoyed very similar roles, we must consider Schremp being afforded the same if we truely want to contrast their likelihood for success.

Great POST!!!! very encouraging

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08-27-2007, 12:32 PM
  #164
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Does anyone have the Time on ice comparison stats for Comrie, Parise, and Schremp during their AHL seasons?

It would be interesting to compare quality of linemates, powerplay time, and time on ice to effectively predict what we feel their peak offensive upside is.

P.s i think Comrie hit his peak a long time ago so bump that throught.

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08-27-2007, 12:34 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by Lowetide View Post
It's my fault that I drink too much beer. My perception of Rob Schremp is what it is. Hey, I wish he'd worked harder that summer he didn't and I wish his stride was like Paul Coffey's, but if wishes were horses then beggars would ride.

As for Pouliot, I like him fine.
Any post with a reference about beer seems like a good one to quote while jumping in...

This isn't so much about what is being discussed in the thread but just a couple questions regarding the comparison in your blog.

If I am following it right, your final conclusions are based on Comrie's rookie season being extrapolated out to 82 games and Schremp's season based on averaging 6 min/game on the PP and 9 EV minutes that were weighed against his points per minutes in the AHL with an assumed playing time of approx 18 minutes a night? Is this correct? Please correct me otherwise.

At any rate, what I am wondering is;

1) Is it realistic to extrapolate Comrie's rookie season to a full 82 games? I don't recall MacT ever playing a rookie the same way at the beginning of the season as he does at the end. If Comrie is up from day one maybe he only dresses for 65 games with 8 of those games consisting of 0:32 in ice time. (just arbitrary numbers but I think the point is there)

2) Expanding on the first question, let's say he is with the team from the first day and has a typical MacT rookie season, in and out of the line up through the first couple months, then what effect does that have on his second half when weighed against all the attitude and confidence that he arrived with after his rediculous Kootenay Ice experience? Obviously this point is unquantifiable but maybe it's worth considering.

3) In regards to Schremp, the 6 minutes per game in PP time seems quite outrageous to me. Wouldn't that essentially require not only 9-12 PP's a game but 9-12 full PP's a game (meaning all the cut short PP's due to other penalties or the Oilers scoring not even factoring in) and assume that Schremp was never taken off the 1st unit? Just a thought.

4) Clearly Schremp's AHL time on ice was a reasoned deduction on your part, and I didn't really pay that close attention to his daily stats last year in order to truly dispute it but from what I do recall is that he spent a fair amount of time in the doghouse getting his head straight...for a lack of a better term. So the question I have is what if he wasn't the second leading scoring center with the second leading center's ice time but was the second leading scoring center with the 4th leading centers ice time?

Just a few questions that popped up...

In the end I think if Schremp plays any more than 1/2 a season in the AHL this year with out forcing a call up then he clearly has to be moved from 'contender' to the 'pretender' category.

*edit* Last year there were only 10 guys in the league that played on average 5:50 per game on the PP or more with only 2 (Crosby and Kovalchuk) being forwards.


Last edited by copperandblue: 08-27-2007 at 12:51 PM.
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08-27-2007, 12:56 PM
  #166
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To me all the Parise comp does is show that it's possible for Schremp to accomplish more than he has. Were his AHL numbers good? No. Were they a disaster? No. Other players have had similar numbers and had a career. Personally I don't think we can draw many conclusions until he's had a couple full seasons.

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08-27-2007, 01:04 PM
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I don't know why--but I got this gutt fealing the Schremp wont put up the numbers some people think he will

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08-27-2007, 01:23 PM
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I don't know why--but I got this gutt fealing the Schremp wont put up the numbers some people think he will
I think you have that gut feeling about every player.

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08-27-2007, 01:38 PM
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Personally I think Schremp's gaudy numbers and lack of a pro-ready all around game should send huge warning signs to those who are considering drafting London Knight players. We'll see how Kane and Gagne turn out. I think Schremp would've developped better under a different coach.

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08-27-2007, 01:54 PM
  #170
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Personally I think Schremp's gaudy numbers and lack of a pro-ready all around game should send huge warning signs to those who are considering drafting London Knight players. We'll see how Kane and Gagne turn out. I think Schremp would've developped better under a different coach.
Just my opinion, but I think the 'London Factor' so to speak is a bit overstated on these boards. Schremp's lack of an overall game in junior had every bit as much to do with his unwillingness to learn it as much as it did with Dale Hunter not teaching it to him.

I can't speak for Kane, but Gagner doesn't sound nearly as one dimensional as Schremp did as a London Knight. I'm not too worried about him being a one trick pony that'll need a schwack of AHL seasoning to beat out the bad habits.

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08-27-2007, 02:01 PM
  #171
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Tis the MacT curse as it would seem, the oil system has no room for any young potential, with Craigers at the helm you will always see a lineup with chippy vets rather than budding future.

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08-27-2007, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Oilerdiehard View Post
I think you have that gut feeling about every player.

not quite

Schemp has two camps on this board--one side see him as the future of the franchise and the other camp--3rd liner at best

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08-27-2007, 02:22 PM
  #173
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Originally Posted by lazycrazycanuck View Post
not quite

Schemp has two camps on this board--one side see him as the future of the franchise and the other camp--3rd liner at best

And then there's me who expects him to be like Stoll.

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08-27-2007, 02:33 PM
  #174
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Originally Posted by shawnmullin View Post
Personally I think Schremp's gaudy numbers and lack of a pro-ready all around game should send huge warning signs to those who are considering drafting London Knight players. We'll see how Kane and Gagne turn out. I think Schremp would've developped better under a different coach.
I agree, IMO it was very disturbing just how un-polished he was defensively. Gagner sounds better in those regards, but he is far from a solid 2-way player right now. I made a thread awhile back comparing Schremp-Kane-Gagner, and basically none of them are anything even remotely close to solid defensively according to most fans opinions. I agree that Schremp would've been better off under a coach that would teach a more all around game. He had that last year, and hopefully will again this year, if it works out that way, we'll have a highly skilled and fairly complete player with only 1 major deficiency (skating). And hopefully along the way that goes from being a weakness to at least a non-issue.

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08-27-2007, 02:35 PM
  #175
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Just my opinion, but I think the 'London Factor' so to speak is a bit overstated on these boards. Schremp's lack of an overall game in junior had every bit as much to do with his unwillingness to learn it as much as it did with Dale Hunter not teaching it to him.

I can't speak for Kane, but Gagner doesn't sound nearly as one dimensional as Schremp did as a London Knight. I'm not too worried about him being a one trick pony that'll need a schwack of AHL seasoning to beat out the bad habits.
Schremp did kill penalties in London in his last year BTW. And he was also one of his teams leaders in +/-. All of that with-out having any kind of a clue how to play proper defensive hockey.

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