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Rob Schremp Analysis and Projections from Lowetide

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Old
08-27-2007, 03:35 PM
  #176
JonQuixote
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Originally Posted by lazycrazycanuck View Post
I don't know why--but I got this gutt fealing the Schremp wont put up the numbers some people think he will
One thing that bodes well for the prognostications of Schremp's naysayers and skeptics is that it's very difficult to find players who were in, say, the top 50 in NHL scoring this year who had worse seasons than he did in their first/20yo year in the minors.

Now, of course, the sample isn't huge, and there are some things that have definitely changed - the IHL/AHL split, for example. And there is the whole thing with the Oilers not having their own affiliation and how that affects ice time and opportunity (if it does). But it's something to consider.

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08-27-2007, 03:39 PM
  #177
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Originally Posted by MikeComrie'sGhost View Post
Parise played in the SuperAHL in 2004-05. Let's try to maintain a certain degree of perspective here.
So very predictable. How about Parise's linemate??? NHLer Dean McAmmond, Hmmm I wonder ho you'd rather have as a linemate, McAmmond against better competition, or Bonvie against weaker competition??? Schremp also had 1 less point than games played in last years TC which would be about the equivallent of the 04-05 AHL. Better competition, and better teammates, it works both ways, so IMO the level of competition is a moot point.

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08-27-2007, 03:42 PM
  #178
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As Lowetide put it, Schremp's window is closing. He has shown us precious little thus far and while I do think he will play in the NHL, the question to whether or not he can be effective I think is still up in the air. This is not to say he is anything close to a bust yet, but I think tempered enthusiasm for him is warrented. Let's see how he does in training camp before we expect anything out of him.

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08-27-2007, 03:45 PM
  #179
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BBO could fill us in why he was a healthy scratch a few games last year

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08-27-2007, 03:45 PM
  #180
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Originally Posted by copperandblue View Post
In the end I think if Schremp plays any more than 1/2 a season in the AHL this year with out forcing a call up then he clearly has to be moved from 'contender' to the 'pretender' category.
Agreed here, IMO if he's even remotely close to healthy, he must force his way up at least for some short stints. The only potential set-back here IMO is his health. However with teh Oilers screwing over Brodziak in terms of deserving a call-up but not getting one, who's to say it'd be the kids fault if he wasn't called up??? IMO he must show the ability to dominate offensively at the AHL level this year and to be a dominant force on the PP while being respectable at ES. He must also translate his shot more like he was in his last 20 games or so. IMO all of these things are certainly attainable with hard work and good health.

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08-27-2007, 03:50 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by lazycrazycanuck View Post
BBO could fill us in why he was a healthy scratch a few games last year
A few were because of boneheaded Junior like moves that coughed up the puck (I re-call 1 or 2 instances where a play like this basically salted the game away for the opposition). He was also sat because of a lack of defensive play, and flat out not getting down and dirty in the corners. However when the games mattered the most (and after he got his **** together) he was out there and was a key contributor for the last 20 games of the season. IMO the best way to sum up Schremp's AHL rookie season would be...

Started out a very one dimensional player, and ended up a much better all around player who also showed that his best dimension translates well to the AHL level.

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08-27-2007, 03:54 PM
  #182
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
A few were because of boneheaded Junior like moves that coughed up the puck (I re-call 1 or 2 instances where a play like this basically salted the game away for the opposition). He was also sat because of a lack of defensive play, and flat out not getting down and dirty in the corners. However when the games mattered the most (and after he got his **** together) he was out there and was a key contributor for the last 20 games of the season. IMO the best way to sum up Schremp's AHL rookie season would be...

Started out a very one dimensional player, and ended up a much better all around player who also showed that his best dimension translates well to the AHL level.
...which is why this upcoming season should be very illuminating about the kind of NHLer Schremp projects to become.

Last season was a huge learning experience for him, now let's see what he learned.

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08-27-2007, 03:58 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
...which is why this upcoming season should be very illuminating about the kind of NHLer Schremp projects to become.

Last season was a huge learning experience for him, now let's see what he learned.
Exactly, he can't claim that no-one taught him anything, because Richards put him through the Gauntlet of learning last year. As with all offensive players, I'm sure that he'll have at least a few boneheaded giveaways, but it's hardly un-common for offensive players.

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08-27-2007, 04:41 PM
  #184
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I just don't see how any of the statistical analyses in the article have any relevance to the real world. He actually just picks random numbers (Desjardin's conversion number? uh...) and uses them to do a mock-up of Schremp's rookie NHL season. I am not sure if he is trying to statistically demonstrate something, because it definitely doesn't demonstrate anything. It's basically a fantasy projected from a predetermined (and fair) perception of Schremp, that relies on countless random assumptions, and upon the objectification of two things that cannot be objectified:

1. the future
2. a human being

This pretty much represents everything that I hate about statistics. No offense, Lowetide, I respect you as a dude. I simply don't think the analysis indicates anything but a convoluted, speculative prediction.

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08-27-2007, 04:57 PM
  #185
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Just for the record, for those that may not know my track record, I have had many flops, but also many solid predictions taht came through.

Misses
Schremp should average 2PPG in the AHL and then get re-called in 10-15 games
Schremp should've been used late in the 05-06 play-offs to help our PP
Jacques would soon be ready to replace Moreau
Schremp would make the team last year
Lupul would score 30+ last year
We shouldn't have traded a 1st rounder for Roloson
I'm sure that there's others that haven't come to mind right now


Hits
Crosby would have a chance with the right linemates to reach 100 points in his NHL rookie season
Jacques would have a very similar AHL rookie season to MAP offensively
Horcoff would get 60+ points in 05-06
Horcoff would be a very good 2nd line center or an average/adequate 1st line center
Weber will be better than Suter (absolutely loved Weber after I saw him play in the 04-05 Memorial Cup).
Lowe should go after Penner
Lowe should go after Souray
Probably a few others that escape me right now


So for all of the flack that some may see coming my way, I do have some positives on my side so that I don't look like a complete moron, just a semi-moron

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Old
08-27-2007, 04:59 PM
  #186
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BTW-I just set up a 22" wide screen monitor to get ready for games this year, and man is it weird to see HF on here Vs. my old monitor!!!

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Old
08-27-2007, 05:14 PM
  #187
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This is absolutely a horrible comparison. What did Schremp do to anyone on here? Obviously he has far more offensive talent than Comrie. THe guy is a magician with the puck and has a cannon....nobody accused Comrie that he had a cannon. Comrie gives up 30 lbs to Schremp and that is before Schremp puts on NHL weight. Schremp played in the OHL right out of high school, Comrie wasnt good enough. People say Schremp's skating is horrible, yes he isnt that fast but it is just because he skates with his legs far apart for balance and needs to bring his legs together for more explosive starts, this isn't that hard to fix, he has the strenght to do this. And that is no way a fair measure of a persons production, actually more like apples to oranges than apples to apples.

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08-27-2007, 05:16 PM
  #188
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Originally Posted by shawnmullin View Post
Personally I think Schremp's gaudy numbers and lack of a pro-ready all around game should send huge warning signs to those who are considering drafting London Knight players. We'll see how Kane and Gagne turn out. I think Schremp would've developped better under a different coach.
How many coaches does he have to be benched by before fans think "just maybe Schremp has some work to do"?

He has benched by multiple coaches.

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08-27-2007, 05:27 PM
  #189
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Originally Posted by westcory View Post
Comrie gives up 30 lbs to Schremp and that is before Schremp puts on NHL weight.
Bringing this up is actually counterproductive to your argument as Comrie spends far more time around the crease getting knocked around than Schremp does.

Truth be told, I would be absolutely thrilled if Schremp develops into Comrie Pt. 2 and scores 30 goals for us. I'm still very concerned with Schremp's play away from the puck and his skating - if it is as simple to fix as you state it is, I really question why he is coming to his third NHL camp now with the exact same skating stride.

I feel Schremp can develop into a solid 2nd line player who can help teams win games due to his ability on the powerplay but I'm not sold at this point that he will ever be a consistent even-strength point producer.

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08-27-2007, 05:35 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by Cerebral View Post
I feel Schremp can develop into a solid 2nd line player who can help teams win games due to his ability on the powerplay but I'm not sold at this point that he will ever be a consistent even-strength point producer.
Yup, I agree.

I think he'll be a 2nd line forward with PP skills who can get about 50 points per season in his prime.

Not a gamebreaker, but definitely a useful forward who covers the bet for a 25th overall pick. It's not a BAD thing (relatively speaking) that he isn't a gamebreaker as there are lots of first rounders who didn't even make the NHL.

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08-27-2007, 05:42 PM
  #191
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Tis the MacT curse as it would seem, the oil system has no room for any young potential, with Craigers at the helm you will always see a lineup with chippy vets rather than budding future.
This is proven false time, and time again, yet people still continue to post it as if it were fact. MacT is no less willing to play kids than any other coach in the NHL. In fact, there's a very stong argument that he plays them too much.

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08-27-2007, 05:45 PM
  #192
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Not a gamebreaker, but definitely a useful forward who covers the bet for a 25th overall pick.
A point that doesn't get made enough around here, IMO.

The way that this kid polarizes opinions, you'd think the Oilers picked him 4th overall and his last name was Bonsignore.

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08-27-2007, 05:48 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
A point that doesn't get made enough around here, IMO.

The way that this kid polarizes opinions, you'd think the Oilers picked him 4th overall and his last name was Bonsignore.
That's what frustrating sometimes -- it's not necessarily bashing or giving up on him if you think his potential is going to be slightly lower than someone's else prediction.

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08-27-2007, 06:01 PM
  #194
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Yup, I agree.

I think he'll be a 2nd line forward with PP skills who can get about 50 points per season in his prime.

Not a gamebreaker, but definitely a useful forward who covers the bet for a 25th overall pick. It's not a BAD thing (relatively speaking) that he isn't a gamebreaker as there are lots of first rounders who didn't even make the NHL.
People forget that he would be great for a 25th pick but others forget that Schremp was drafted as the 3rd most talented player in the draft.

I don't think Schremp has any less potential (he still has shot that can score 50 in the NHL) he is just less likely to get there. It's too early to say he has 2nd line max upside, or to say "someone who will score points, but not help the team win" ect.. too early to cast off Schremp. He had a year that should have been expected but just because he had it doesn't take away from his top potential.

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08-27-2007, 06:03 PM
  #195
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
That's what frustrating sometimes -- it's not necessarily bashing or giving up on him if you think his potential is going to be slightly lower than someone's else prediction.
There was a lot of hype over Schremp. So it was kind of ingrained into the populaces consciousness that RS is going to be a star...

Thats when you get people thumbing anyone questioning how much he can help the Oilers right now. The frustrating part for people like LT I'm sure is making an effort to substantiate and quantify how he feels about a certain topic, and then have 10 people make an appearance with claims like 'scremp has way more offensive talent' and magical predictions of 600+ goals etc.

I guess thats why he posts stuff like this on his blog.

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08-27-2007, 06:03 PM
  #196
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Are we to say JFJ has no NHL potential just because he has **** the bed in the NHL so far?

No one, ever, has played worse in the NHL than JFJ, that said, he still has top 6 potential.

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08-27-2007, 06:06 PM
  #197
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
How many coaches does he have to be benched by before fans think "just maybe Schremp has some work to do"?

He has benched by multiple coaches.
Horcoff was benched last year by macT... he must be a cancer

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08-27-2007, 06:11 PM
  #198
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
People forget that he would be great for a 25th pick but others forget that Schremp was drafted as the 3rd most talented player in the draft.

I don't think Schremp has any less potential (he still has shot that can score 50 in the NHL) he is just less likely to get there. It's too early to say he has 2nd line max upside, or to say "someone who will score points, but not help the team win" ect.. too early to cast off Schremp. He had a year that should have been expected but just because he had it doesn't take away from his top potential.
I'm not making my statements as fact, I'm making them as opinion. I've been through this before in the thread, but to summarize: everyone has an opinion -- mine is based on the stat analyses I've seen, the observations I've made, the gut feelings I have. That said, it is no more valid (barring ridiculous statements like he'll score 100 goals per season, etc.) than the opinion of JonQuixote, BBO, or yourself. Because until something happens, it is just speculation.

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08-27-2007, 06:13 PM
  #199
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wowzers guys, who the hell cares.
Give the kid a break, another year and we'll have a good idea if he will be a player or not.
Either way he was a terrific pick at the position they took him in.

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08-27-2007, 06:13 PM
  #200
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Originally Posted by Traktor View Post
Horcoff was benched last year by macT... he must be a cancer
WHy even bother stretch the gist of already thin commentary? It makes nothing more than white noise that breeds more white noise and ruins way too many threads around here.

Horcoff wasn't a healthy scratch, he didnt play on the 4th line for a large chuck of the season, Horcoff has been a #1 center on his team for multiple seasons. Where are you going with that exactly?

Its obvious she meant that RS struggles are likely because RS isnt ready yet, and not for other verious excuses. If you don't buy into that... make an effort to tell us why. Making comments like you did adds nothing and begs for more of the same.

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