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Old
10-30-2007, 07:34 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by MountainHawk View Post
Well, that makes it more complicated. Maybe you look to deal Umberger at the deadline this season?
they're prolly going to have to make a deal to pick up any potential salary... so if Forsberg, or any other deadline acquisition comes up I'm not sure what they do.

I don't think they'd have problems moving Umberger over the summer, however. Most awards are pretty reasonable, or the Flyers can get him under contract before that point.

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10-30-2007, 07:37 PM
  #152
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Will he be RFA or UFA after next season? If he's a UFA, I'm not convinced you get full value on dealing him after accepting an arbitration award.

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10-30-2007, 07:40 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by MountainHawk View Post
Will he be RFA or UFA after next season? If he's a UFA, I'm not convinced you get full value on dealing him after accepting an arbitration award.
on a 1-year deal, no not as much. but say they sign him to a 2-3 year deal prior to then, and then trade him... which is what I'd do if you're going to deal him.

you could also trade him after his QO to someone that wants to negotiate with him... which is essentially what happened with Pitkanen.

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10-30-2007, 07:41 PM
  #154
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They'd have to do that before the FA period, though, right? Once he files for arbitration, I don't think you can settle.

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10-30-2007, 07:43 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by MountainHawk View Post
They'd have to do that before the FA period, though, right? Once he files for arbitration, I don't think you can settle.
he could be traded with arbitration pending... if he filed (that's where Pitkanen was at in the process)

he would get qualified regardless... they'll have options.

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10-31-2007, 07:23 AM
  #156
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Originally Posted by krantan View Post
The cap will go up. How much I can't tell you, but no matter what has happened, every major sports franchise's value has gone up in the 3 year evaluations Forbes has been doing since the early 80s, and a lot of people think even those numbers are conservative. League's aren't dumb, they have plans 5-6 years out about how they are going to bring in "one time" money pots. This year was the new Jerseys, next year will be the alt jerseys (not surprisingly, we are not the only fan base that were not issued a popular color scheme) after that the TV contract shoudl get a bump etc.

I was actually just talking to a friend, and he convinced me that one of Lupul or Hartnell will almost definitely be gone after next season.

If you look at Hartnell's contract, his deal is frontloaded this year and next, and then he makes his average salary, and then less. He is basically on a two year tryout to see if he can be an impact first/second line winger, and if he can't he has value to a team who doesn't spend to the cap anyway. We basically converted our cap space this season into an asset that we can reclaim later.

As for Lupul, you did say to assume he keeps up this level of play, and he is ~ a 30 goal pace, playing on the third line ES and second team PP. If his playis for real, (ie he isn't just full of piss and vinegar because he got dealt) I expect him to find a permanent home with Briere and Gagne. I would not be shocked to see him net 70 goals between this season and next.

I agree that Coburn might not be as easy to lock up as some seem to think. He was ranked the #1 defenseman by alot of people in the ridiculously talented 2003 draft, and is playing like a veteran top 4 performer. He still has all the upside in the world.

Jones is not likely to have steep demands, he has played well, but doesn't have the physical talent or upside that would lead a team to give him a huge offer. I expect him to sign a 2-3 year deal in the $1.2-$1.5 range.



Richards is not going to get more then Carter unless a major injury pops up, or they have MASSIVELY different seasons (ie Richards gets 25/45/70ish and Carter get 20/15/35ish). Carter was a higher draft pick, he has more physical talent, and has better career stats. Carter is a much more valuable asset right now. Their contracts will probably be pretty similar, I expect $3.3-$4 over 4-5 for both. I would not be surprised if they had a joint press conference to announce two identical contracts.
I agree with you. Carter and Richards have to maintain their current level of play to see the type of long term contract that Horton got. Plus when you look at what Cammalleri got in arbitration (2 years, 6.75MM) and he put up 55pts and then 80pts, arbitration would probably be a cheaper alternative if they can't sign those two guys to contracts, although that would be a last resort type thing.

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10-31-2007, 07:51 AM
  #157
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Originally Posted by MountainHawk View Post
They'd have to do that before the FA period, though, right? Once he files for arbitration, I don't think you can settle.
You can agree o a contract until the result is announced. I don't think its ever happened, but you could in theory walk out of the room with the arbiter sign a contract. "11th hour" (ie hours or minutes before the hearing) deals happen all the time, especially with the Flyers. The arbitration hearing is messy and divisive, most teams try to avoid it at all costs.

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10-31-2007, 11:25 AM
  #158
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Originally Posted by krantan View Post
You can agree o a contract until the result is announced. I don't think its ever happened, but you could in theory walk out of the room with the arbiter sign a contract. "11th hour" (ie hours or minutes before the hearing) deals happen all the time, especially with the Flyers. The arbitration hearing is messy and divisive, most teams try to avoid it at all costs.
if you're looking to move the player anyway, you might not care. however, if you sign a guy to a 2-year deal, he'd probably have more value in a trade.

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10-31-2007, 01:05 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by krantan View Post
The cap will go up. How much I can't tell you, but no matter what has happened, every major sports franchise's value has gone up in the 3 year evaluations Forbes has been doing since the early 80s, and a lot of people think even those numbers are conservative. League's aren't dumb, they have plans 5-6 years out about how they are going to bring in "one time" money pots. This year was the new Jerseys, next year will be the alt jerseys (not surprisingly, we are not the only fan base that were not issued a popular color scheme) after that the TV contract shoudl get a bump etc.

I was actually just talking to a friend, and he convinced me that one of Lupul or Hartnell will almost definitely be gone after next season.

If you look at Hartnell's contract, his deal is frontloaded this year and next, and then he makes his average salary, and then less. He is basically on a two year tryout to see if he can be an impact first/second line winger, and if he can't he has value to a team who doesn't spend to the cap anyway. We basically converted our cap space this season into an asset that we can reclaim later.

As for Lupul, you did say to assume he keeps up this level of play, and he is ~ a 30 goal pace, playing on the third line ES and second team PP. If his playis for real, (ie he isn't just full of piss and vinegar because he got dealt) I expect him to find a permanent home with Briere and Gagne. I would not be shocked to see him net 70 goals between this season and next.

I agree that Coburn might not be as easy to lock up as some seem to think. He was ranked the #1 defenseman by alot of people in the ridiculously talented 2003 draft, and is playing like a veteran top 4 performer. He still has all the upside in the world.

Jones is not likely to have steep demands, he has played well, but doesn't have the physical talent or upside that would lead a team to give him a huge offer. I expect him to sign a 2-3 year deal in the $1.2-$1.5 range.

Richards is not going to get more then Carter unless a major injury pops up, or they have MASSIVELY different seasons (ie Richards gets 25/45/70ish and Carter get 20/15/35ish). Carter was a higher draft pick, he has more physical talent, and has better career stats. Carter is a much more valuable asset right now. Their contracts will probably be pretty similar, I expect $3.3-$4 over 4-5 for both. I would not be surprised if they had a joint press conference to announce two identical contracts.
Carter Total NHL 153 43 43 86 +1
Ricahrds Total NHL 148 27 51 78 -2

Not sure where you are getting that his career stats are better unless you consider 8 more points with 5 more games played better.....seems pretty even at this point if you ask me. Where they were drafted matters with their entry level deal, not with this one. Rather then sit here and debate something that we have no idea how it is going to play out, lets put it this way....would you rather have Richards at $4.5 million or Carter at $4 million? I go Richards all the way even though he cost more money cause he offers so much more then a great wrist shot.....he is more valuable to this team at this point in time and I think the Flyers would be willing to give him more money then Carter. Physical talent is meaningless otherwise Pitkanen would have received a $5 million per year deal last year....and to use my favorite analogy (I know Jester loves this one) McNabb's superior physical talent has gotten him so much further then QBs like Brady with half that talent............


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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
true of small market teams with a lot of cap, actually... someone like Washington who is sitting at the cap floor the past few years could take on cap, but not be spending that much.

personally, i think they need to reset the cap hit when a player is traded... but that's just me.
I think that answers a question I had...just to confirm...if we trade Hartnell in the last two years of his contract, regardless what he is making the $4.2 cap hit will transfer to the other team?? I am with you, I think it should be reset..

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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
I agree with you. Carter and Richards have to maintain their current level of play to see the type of long term contract that Horton got. Plus when you look at what Cammalleri got in arbitration (2 years, 6.75MM) and he put up 55pts and then 80pts, arbitration would probably be a cheaper alternative if they can't sign those two guys to contracts, although that would be a last resort type thing.
See above for my response to what you agreed with

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10-31-2007, 02:05 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
Carter Total NHL 153 43 43 86 +1
Ricahrds Total NHL 148 27 51 78 -2

Not sure where you are getting that his career stats are better unless you consider 8 more points with 5 more games played better.....seems pretty even at this point if you ask me.
Those numbers are a touch skewed because Richards has better stats so far this year. Looking at complete seasons, Carter has more goals both years, and they split assists. Yes, Carters stats for the last 2 seasons are noticeably better then Richards. Its certainly not night and day, but they are better.
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Where they were drafted matters with their entry level deal, not with this one.
Yes, draft position does matter for RFA salaries. Certainly not the primary thing to look at, but they are used in arbitration and in salary slotting.

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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
Rather then sit here and debate something that we have no idea how it is going to play out, lets put it this way....would you rather have Richards at $4.5 million or Carter at $4 million?
You can only look at it that way if you are only keeping one. Carter is not going to sign for less then Richards makes unless we have something to club his agent over the head with, which right now we don't. This is another reason the draft position is relevant in this case.

And frankly, I'm still not sure I think Richards is going to be a better player in 2-3 years then Carter. Carter has been a monster out there this year, doing all the little things, playing great defense, and his skates never stop. Great power forwards take time to develop. If he can polish his game and harness the nasty shot he has, Carter could be one of the elite forwards in this league. Compare his progress to players like Iginla, Leclair, Lecavalier or pretty much any other power forward. Richards looks better right now, but I don't think you can count on the stat sheet looking the same at the end of the season.

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Physical talent is meaningless otherwise Pitkanen would have received a $5 million per year deal last year
Physical talent is not meaningless, thats asinine. Production counts most obviously, but if you have two guys who are producing about the same, then of course you want the guy who has the talent and ability to do much better in the future.

Someone scoring 50 goals in a season doesn't tell you anything about them other then the fact that they scored 50 goals in that season. The implication is that they are a good player and they can hopefully do that again, but age, talent and health all play into that discussion.

I'm not knocking Richards, I think he's a great player, I just think it's important not to discount Carter. I think getting both these guys signed and happy is as important a longterm decision as anything this franchise has done since they traded for Lindros.

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11-01-2007, 09:44 AM
  #161
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Those numbers are a touch skewed because Richards has better stats so far this year. Looking at complete seasons, Carter has more goals both years, and they split assists. Yes, Carters stats for the last 2 seasons are noticeably better then Richards. Its certainly not night and day, but they are better.
Again, I think you are putting too much stock in this. There is a 13 point differential not including this season, with Carter playing in about 5 more games. Hardly an amount to get worked up about unless all you care about is stats. Do we want to start talking about who Richards has played with over that time? Do we want to start talking about how Richards has got all the key defensive assignments?

Besides, if Richards continues to lead the team in ice time and play on the #1 powerplay unit, I dont see Carter ending up with many more points

Here is a decent comparison: LeCavalier vs. Richards.

Vinny has the "physical" talent, was always the one with the longer term potential at the time of the contract signing (which he finally reached last year), was the higher drafted player, was in the league longer, etc. Richards was the 3rd round pick, not as physcially gifted but offered more to the team at the time in the fact that he was considered one of their leaders, etc. Richards got a slightly bigger contract then Vinny. Yes, he had the playoff success on top of that, but they were two years removed from that (including the lockout) and both signed after the new CBA went into effect. Point being, they paid the guy that they felt had more value to the team at that time slightly more money. They didnt pay the guy that offered the longer term potential, who they expected to be the better player in 3 years more money.

Richards keeps getting the #1 powerplay time, and all the ice time he gets which I believe is leading the team at this point, I dont see Carter having more points then him, especially when you consider Richards has been on a ppg pace since well into last year....Chances are they dont sign for longer then 3 years unless they are 100% committed to this team anyway, so I dont see this contract being based on long-term potential.

Richards has the fact that he was given an A and has been talked about as the future captain to now hold over their heads. It might not amount to much, but it helps...

Quote:
Yes, draft position does matter for RFA salaries. Certainly not the primary thing to look at, but they are used in arbitration and in salary slotting.
If you are telling me you know exactly how the contract negotiation and arbitration process works then you got me, but I dont see how draft position matters after you get your entry level contract. I bet if we researched contract signings, and arbitration awards there would be absolutely no correlation to draft position. The player they feel offers more to the team, or has produced more at that point in time is going to get more money.

Case in point...Calder got a big arbitration award a few years ago, he was only a 5th round pick in the draft...

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You can only look at it that way if you are only keeping one. Carter is not going to sign for less then Richards makes unless we have something to club his agent over the head with, which right now we don't. This is another reason the draft position is relevant in this case.
If Richards has a better season then him this year, how can Carter justify asking for more money? He may do it, sure, but that doesnt mean he deserves it. They were both 1st round picks, it isnt like we are comparing a 1st rounder to a 3rd rounder here.

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And frankly, I'm still not sure I think Richards is going to be a better player in 2-3 years then Carter. Carter has been a monster out there this year, doing all the little things, playing great defense, and his skates never stop. Great power forwards take time to develop. If he can polish his game and harness the nasty shot he has, Carter could be one of the elite forwards in this league. Compare his progress to players like Iginla, Leclair, Lecavalier or pretty much any other power forward. Richards looks better right now, but I don't think you can count on the stat sheet looking the same at the end of the season.

Physical talent is not meaningless, thats asinine. Production counts most obviously, but if you have two guys who are producing about the same, then of course you want the guy who has the talent and ability to do much better in the future.

Someone scoring 50 goals in a season doesn't tell you anything about them other then the fact that they scored 50 goals in that season. The implication is that they are a good player and they can hopefully do that again, but age, talent and health all play into that discussion.

I'm not knocking Richards, I think he's a great player, I just think it's important not to discount Carter. I think getting both these guys signed and happy is as important a longterm decision as anything this franchise has done since they traded for Lindros.
I am not discounting Carter by any means, I want both of them here, but I still think Richards is the more valuable player to the team then Carter cause he brings a lot more to the table then Carter. And speaking of "physical talent" where is Carter that much more talented than Richards anyway? Carter has a nasty wrist shot, I will give him that, but it isnt very accurate. Maybe he is slightly faster, but Richards has improved a hell of a lot in that area too. Richards is the better passer, playmaker, defensive player, etc. Richards put up more points in juniors so that physical talent Carter supposedly has above him didnt help at that point. I wonder if they both would have been picked in the same spot if drafted in the new NHL. Richards was small under the "old NHL" standards. In my opinion, Carter could end up being the better goal scorer, but that is about it.

We are all speaking hypothetical at this point cause we dont know what happens this season. I am going by where I see the players development today, and who I think is more valuable to the team. If we dont agree, we dont agree.

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11-01-2007, 10:23 AM
  #162
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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
Again, I think you are putting too much stock in this. There is a 13 point differential not including this season, with Carter playing in about 5 more games. Hardly an amount to get worked up about unless all you care about is stats. Do we want to start talking about who Richards has played with over that time? Do we want to start talking about how Richards has got all the key defensive assignments?

Besides, if Richards continues to lead the team in ice time and play on the #1 powerplay unit, I dont see Carter ending up with many more points
I'm not saying I'm hung up on the 13 points, I'm saying Carter's agent will be.
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Here is a decent comparison: LeCavalier vs. Richards.
Actually, its a pretty horrible comparison. Lecavier got a touch less because he signed his contract right after the lockout, and had 2 years of RFA left. Richards signed the next year, when alot of salaries started coming back up, and was a UFA.

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If you are telling me you know exactly how the contract negotiation and arbitration process works then you got me, but I dont see how draft position matters after you get your entry level contract. I bet if we researched contract signings, and arbitration awards there would be absolutely no correlation to draft position. The player they feel offers more to the team, or has produced more at that point in time is going to get more money.

Case in point...Calder got a big arbitration award a few years ago, he was only a 5th round pick in the draft...
I've never been in the room obviously, but the CBA spells out exactly what can and can't be used as evidence in an arbitration hearing, draft position is on the list.

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If Richards has a better season then him this year, how can Carter justify asking for more money? He may do it, sure, but that doesnt mean he deserves it. They were both 1st round picks, it isnt like we are comparing a 1st rounder to a 3rd rounder here.
Unless Richards has a vastly superior season, he can justify it by saying that he has performed better in 2 of 3 seasons.

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I am not discounting Carter by any means, I want both of them here, but I still think Richards is the more valuable player to the team then Carter cause he brings a lot more to the table then Carter. And speaking of "physical talent" where is Carter that much more talented than Richards anyway? Carter has a nasty wrist shot, I will give him that, but it isnt very accurate. Maybe he is slightly faster, but Richards has improved a hell of a lot in that area too. Richards is the better passer, playmaker, defensive player, etc. Richards put up more points in juniors so that physical talent Carter supposedly has above him didnt help at that point. I wonder if they both would have been picked in the same spot if drafted in the new NHL. Richards was small under the "old NHL" standards. In my opinion, Carter could end up being the better goal scorer, but that is about it.

We are all speaking hypothetical at this point cause we dont know what happens this season. I am going by where I see the players development today, and who I think is more valuable to the team. If we dont agree, we dont agree.
Carter is 5 or 6 inches inches taller, about 25-30 pounds heavier and is one of the fastest skaters on the team. Richards has improved his skating alot, but he is still only average. They are still only 22, and as I said Carter tracks pretty well with the emergence of other talented power forwards.

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11-01-2007, 11:04 AM
  #163
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I'm not saying I'm hung up on the 13 points, I'm saying Carter's agent will be.


Unless Richards has a vastly superior season, he can justify it by saying that he has performed better in 2 of 3 seasons.


Again, that is very subjective. Where as you see 13 points as performing better in 2 of 3 seasons, I dont. I saw one guy who was playing in a defensive role have 13 less points with absolute slop for his wingers over the first year and half of his career blossom towards the end of last season and look like a superior player as soon as he started playing with talent, which has now carried forward to this season in which he has been on a ppg pace for several months now. Compared to Carter who was strategically put on the ice by Hitch the first year, who got a little better last year and will continue to improve and maybe end up better then Richards a few years from now, but he hasnt been yet...

I would agree on draft position being an issue if you are talking about guys that were picked 60 spots apart, or in different rounds. If you notice, pretty much all 1st rounders get the same entry level contract regardless of where they were picked....Coburn, Carter, Richards are all being paid the same amount and they were picked 8th, 11th and 24th, respectively.

No one is arguing that Carter is bigger and a better skater and that power forwards take longer to develop....no need to keep brining up something we agree on. Richards sure as hell hasnt looked like an average skater to me so far this season, but whatever...

If you want to keep debating this we can, but we are never going to agree on the key point here and that is you claiming Carter has been better then Richards over their first two seasons, and I dont.......there is no debate who has been better over the first 10 games thus far..


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11-01-2007, 11:48 AM
  #164
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If you want to keep debating this we can, but we are never going to agree on the key point here and that is you claiming Carter has been better then Richards over their first two seasons, and I dont.......there is no debate who has been better over the first 10 games thus far..
I guess we have played out the string here, I think we agree on more then we disagree on. The main thing I'd close with though is its not so much that I'm saying Carter has been better as that Carter's agent will say that. The points I have brought up aren't to convince you that Carter is better then Richards as much as reasons that an advocate for Carter would not want to get less money then Richards. As I've said before I'm more concerned with how Richard's contract will effect Carter's signability, and how both contracts effect our cap next year.

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11-01-2007, 12:07 PM
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I guess we have played out the string here, I think we agree on more then we disagree on. The main thing I'd close with though is its not so much that I'm saying Carter has been better as that Carter's agent will say that. The points I have brought up aren't to convince you that Carter is better then Richards as much as reasons that an advocate for Carter would not want to get less money then Richards. As I've said before I'm more concerned with how Richard's contract will effect Carter's signability, and how both contracts effect our cap next year.
His agent can say whatever he wants....he is wrong

I am a little worried about next year, but it is the year after that that really worries me where we need to re-sign a lot of people.

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11-01-2007, 12:10 PM
  #166
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His agent can say whatever he wants....he is wrong

I am a little worried about next year, but it is the year after that that really worries me where we need to re-sign a lot of people.
disregarding the potential to wave Hatcher... you have 7.5M coming off the books between Kapanen, Knuble, and Hatcher for that season. however, it's difficult to say too much about it without knowing what will be the case with this year's batch.

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11-01-2007, 12:13 PM
  #167
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disregarding the potential to wave Hatcher... you have 7.5M coming off the books between Kapanen, Knuble, and Hatcher for that season. however, it's difficult to say too much about it without knowing what will be the case with this year's batch.
Exactly. My point was that whatever Carter and Richards sign for is going to have a significant impact on what we can give Lupul, Upshall, Kukkonen, Eager, Downie, Biron and Nitty or replacement.

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11-01-2007, 12:19 PM
  #168
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Exactly. My point was that whatever Carter and Richards sign for is going to have a significant impact on what we can give Lupul, Upshall, Kukkonen, Eager, Downie, Biron and Nitty or replacement.
I don't think Nitty is sticking around... at least, I wouldn't if I was him.

The rest... some decisions will need to be made. However, one should remember that JVR, Giroux, and Nodl should be around and making some players expendable. You can't have 9 top 6 forwards... just the way it goes.

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11-01-2007, 12:21 PM
  #169
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I hate having too many good players.

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11-01-2007, 12:43 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
His agent can say whatever he wants....he is wrong

I am a little worried about next year, but it is the year after that that really worries me where we need to re-sign a lot of people.
Doesn't matter if he is right or wrong. If we come out of this offseason without both Carter and Richards locked up long term it will be a severe disappointment.

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11-01-2007, 01:36 PM
  #171
mikedifr
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I don't think Nitty is sticking around... at least, I wouldn't if I was him.

The rest... some decisions will need to be made. However, one should remember that JVR, Giroux, and Nodl should be around and making some players expendable. You can't have 9 top 6 forwards... just the way it goes.
I dont think Nitty will be here either. Not taking into account what happens with Carter/Richards, I see Giroux and Downie replacing Umberger and Dowd and then JVR and maybe Nodl replacing Knuble and Kapanen the following year.

09/10 season:
Gagne Briere Lupul
Hartnell Carter Giroux
JVR Richards Upshall

If Downie has moved into the top 9, then one of those guys has to go...

Quote:
Originally Posted by rayearth View Post
I hate having too many good players.
Yeah it sucks, doesnt it

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Originally Posted by krantan View Post
Doesn't matter if he is right or wrong. If we come out of this offseason without both Carter and Richards locked up long term it will be a severe disappointment.
Well, at least we agree there

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11-03-2007, 10:27 AM
  #172
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Well, this looks as good of a place as any for me to give my props to Richards. He is putting his stamp on this team for the future. He's 3rd on the team in TOI playing in all situations from PP, to PK to late game defensive forward. His offense has come to life too showing he's more than just a "defensive specialist" on forward.

This summer I said that I believed the Flyers would use a decemt portion of their cap space next off-season to lock Richards up long term. I still think this will happen. I think this might leave the Flyers a little tight for trying to sign Carter long term so I believe the will take Carter to arbitration awarding him a 1-year, 2 - 2.5 mil deal and that after the 09 season the Flyers WILL have the money to sign Carter long term.

THIS is how I think the Flyers will get around their cap problems. If Hatcher is dealt I think the extra cap space will be used to re-sign Smith, not Carter.

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11-03-2007, 11:27 AM
  #173
Jester
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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
Well, this looks as good of a place as any for me to give my props to Richards. He is putting his stamp on this team for the future. He's 3rd on the team in TOI playing in all situations from PP, to PK to late game defensive forward. His offense has come to life too showing he's more than just a "defensive specialist" on forward.

This summer I said that I believed the Flyers would use a decemt portion of their cap space next off-season to lock Richards up long term. I still think this will happen. I think this might leave the Flyers a little tight for trying to sign Carter long term so I believe the will take Carter to arbitration awarding him a 1-year, 2 - 2.5 mil deal and that after the 09 season the Flyers WILL have the money to sign Carter long term.

THIS is how I think the Flyers will get around their cap problems. If Hatcher is dealt I think the extra cap space will be used to re-sign Smith, not Carter.
not eligible for arbitration... and 2-2.5 million is light on the reward he'd get if he keeps up his current pace.

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