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How to be Flamed Less - A Guide to Trade Proposals

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12-08-2007, 09:47 PM
  #1
Yelnats Puc
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How to be Flamed Less - A Guide to Trade Proposals

Ok, well I've been thinking about doing this for a bit, but I've decided to give it a go and see how it's received.

Everyone knows that the majority of trade proposals on here can be quite ridiculous, because people tend to miss many important aspects that go into the decision process when teams make trades. I hope to cover most of these aspects, as well as point out a couple common errors that posters make.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Things to Think About When Making a Proposal:

1) Team Needs
Taking into account both teams' needs in terms of positions and skill is very important. Don't fall into the trap of looking at one team's need and then fulfilling it at the expense of the other team. Both teams need to have motivation to do the trade, not just your hometeam.

2) Contract Status
Is the player a UFA next season? Is he signed long-term? Is he being paid more than they're worth? Does he have a NTC? Contract status is a very big part of trades, as teams tend to value players who are signed long-term more than impending UFAs. On the other hand, however, trade deadline deals more often than not are for UFAs who teams are interested in "renting" for a playoff run.
Obviously, how much a player is being paid is a big part of it as well. A player who is making less than he could has significantly higher value than one who is making more than he should be.
Don't forget to check if a player has a No Trade/Movement Clause in his contract. If a player has a NTC, he's very likely not going to a team which isn't a strong contender. Though things like personal connections and whether a player has played for his potential destination before, as well as the desirebility of the respective city, can also affect a player's decision. Chances are, however, that if the team is unlikely to make a Cup run sometime during the remaining years on the player's contract, the player would rather stay home.

3) Salary Cap
To go along with contract status, looking at a team's Cap status in relation to the price of the contracts being moved is a must. If a team doesn't have room to make a trade, the trade doesn't happen, simple as that.
Along the same lines, teams often have a self-imposed Salary Cap. Do your best to find out what payroll a team is looking to operate at.
Don't forget, not only is there a Salary Ceiling, but there's also a Salary Floor. A team cannot go below the Salary Floor in the same way they cannot go above the Ceiling.
You can use the fact that contracts are pro-rated to your advantage if necessary. For example, a trade halfway through the season would only move the remaining half of the player's contract that has yet to be paid. So even if a team doesn't have enough room for a player at the beginning of the season, they may have room for him at the trade deadline.
Finally, don't just look at contracts for one year; if a contract will put a team over the cap for next year, or cuff them in terms of re-signing players with expiring contracts, they likely won't do it. Obviously this doesn't apply to UFA rentals.

4) Team Goals
All teams are trying to win a Stanley Cup, but not all of them are doing it in the same way. Some are happy with their rosters and not looking to make a trade, some are geared up for a Cup run and looking to make minor tweaks, others are retooling, and again others are looking to rebuild entirely. Not all of these teams are looking for the same thing in trades. A team who wants to make a Cup run isn't going to trade their star for picks and/or prospects, while a team that's rebuilding isn't going to be looking to trade their future for a trade deadline rental. Figure out what the team's looking to do, then make your proposal accordingly.

5) Draft Picks
Not all draft picks are alike. A 1st from one team in one year would not be the same as a 1st from another team in another year. Obviously, team placement in the final standings affect the quality of the draft pick, so a higher ranked team would have lower quality draft picks than a lower ranked team. Also, different draft years are different quality. Some drafts are very top heavy, with the first 5 picks or so being quality, but have it drop off significantly. In drafts like this, picks that aren't likely to be in this top 5 are not nearly as good as ones that are likely to place in the top.
Draft picks are not always the quick fix solution to make up the difference in a trade, so think about the value of a pick with regards to the developement time and the likely skill level of the resulting player. This, again, varies by draft and team, so be careful.

6) Prospects
Do not overrate potential; teams prefer proven, young talent over unproven prospects. Don't fall into the trap of thinking anyone is a sure bet to make it big, as players like Alexander Daigle and Patrick Stefan show that even top picks can miss. There are many prospects who don't make it to the NHL, even ones who seem like sure bets, so don't think if you can throw enough prospects at one team, it will land you a top player in return.
Also, don't even bother trying to trade for a teams top prospect. Chances are to acquire that prospect, you'll have to overpay. As soon as you start overpaying, then it's unbalanced against you.

7) Franchise Players
Much like trading for top prospects, there are many established players who are very unlikely to be traded from their team. You need to recognize which players are deemed as franchise players by the team, and then steer clear of them.

Common Mistakes to Avoid:

1) "Homerism"
Just because a player plays for your team, doesn't mean he's better than he would be if he played elsewhere. Be very cafeful when evaluating your own players, too often posters overvalue their own players and pay a price for it.

2) "Quantity=Quality"
Sending a bunch of trash players to one team will not net the other team a star. If you want quality, you need to give quality in return, it's that simple.

3) "It Worked in NHL 08"
This is not video game hockey, so you can't simply see if a trade works in a video game and decide it's a good trade. There are so many factors that video games don't take into account that you need to.

Final Things to Consider:

1) Spelling and Grammar
Take some time to make your post presentable; check to make sure it uses proper punctuation, capitals where necessary, and that the words are spelled right. Don't stress if you miss a word or two, but I guarantee you'll taken more seriously if you put effort into making your post look nice. The board has a nice spell check feature that can come in handy, be sure to use it.

2) Outline Your Thought Process
It's like Math class all over again, where even if you got the answer wrong, you still got points for showing your work. (Assuming you did it right, of course.) Take the same approach here; give a short paragraph briefly stating why each team would want to make the trade. This gives people your reasoning behind the trade so they can help you out in where you went wrong. Also, it may just save you from making a poor proposal if you realize you can't explain why either team would make the trade. In that case, it might be best not to post it.

3) Take Criticism for What it is
If you make a proposal that isn't quite right, chances are you'll get some criticism and advice to make it better. Don't flame them or fight them because they disagree with you, use their advice to help you tweak your proposal to get more in line with what it should be.

4) If You're Not Sure, Ask
If you're still not sure about your proposal, ask about it. You're much less likely to get flamed for asking a question than you are for making a bad proposal.

Be Cautious When Composing Multi-Way Trades
Trades that involve more than 2 teams can be especially tricky, as it adds more players to the equation, and that makes it much tougher to estimate the value of what each team gives up and receives. It can help if you break each team's involvement up into "[Team] Receives" and "[Team] Gives Up." This will help how good well balanced the trade is as far as each team's return on their players.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Feel free to comment and offer things that you think I may have missed, I know I probably missed something, but with your help we could probably make a solid guide.

Thanks in advance and I hope you appreciate it.


Last edited by Yelnats Puc: 12-17-2007 at 09:46 PM.
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12-08-2007, 09:49 PM
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do i sense a sticky thread?

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12-08-2007, 09:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLeprechaun View Post
1) "Homerism"
Just because a player plays for your team, doesn't mean he's better than he would be if he played elsewhere. Be very cafeful when evaluating your own players, too often posters overvalue their own players and pay a price for it.
[/B]
Just make this Rule 5(personally i would make it rule 1). Personally i would say don't make trade proposals involving your favorite team

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12-08-2007, 09:52 PM
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It is a good thread. Too bad the people who make the stupid trade proposals won't read it.

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12-08-2007, 09:54 PM
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Originally Posted by 19nazzy View Post
It is a good thread. Too bad the people who make the stupid trade proposals won't read it.
or wont understand it

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12-08-2007, 09:54 PM
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^ no I'm sure they'll read it but it won't stop them from proposing the trade that is now off limits

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12-08-2007, 10:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by milbs06 View Post
do i sense a sticky thread?
Maybe, we'll see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
Just make this Rule 5(personally i would make it rule 1). Personally i would say don't make trade proposals involving your favorite team
I was thinking about suggesting not making proposals involving your favourite team, but the majority of proposals are people throwing out ways to make their own team better. As for making it Rule 5, it's a possibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 19nazzy View Post
It is a good thread. Too bad the people who make the stupid trade proposals won't read it.
That's... probably true. But it's worth a shot... maybe.

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12-08-2007, 10:59 PM
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All that anybody has to do is peruse the user names of those posting the proposals. Few, if any, of them have distinguished track records of posting history.

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12-08-2007, 11:03 PM
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gERBURR 2 VaNACouVer 4 sEDIN SEdIN anD bIESKA aND kEZLER

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12-08-2007, 11:04 PM
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12-08-2007, 11:06 PM
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But the flaming is more entertaining than an actual balanced proposal

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12-08-2007, 11:07 PM
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do i sense a sticky thread?
If this turns out well, quite possibly. [Which means, if you're thinking of spewing trash here ... don't.]

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12-08-2007, 11:19 PM
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Just make this Rule 5(personally i would make it rule 1). Personally i would say don't make trade proposals involving your favorite team
Instead of no making proposals involving your team: if you can't look at your team objectively don't make a proposal with them.

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12-08-2007, 11:21 PM
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Thank you
If they can only follow salary cap and UFA I'll be happy


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12-08-2007, 11:47 PM
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Couple suggestions:

2nd round pick is will not make up the difference between any two players

Don't ask for a team's top prospect, young star or best player as a starter on a deal, much less it be a requirement.

Don't state because a player grew up a fan of (team) that he will take the first chance to sign there as a fact.


Last edited by Hasbro: 12-08-2007 at 11:54 PM.
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12-08-2007, 11:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hasbro View Post
Couple suggestions:

2nd round pick is will not make up the difference between any two players

Don't ask for a team's top prospect, young star or best player as a starter on a deal, much less it be a requirement.
I was going to do a section on draft picks. Must have slipped my mind. The other one's a good one too, but not necessarily a hard and fast rule. I'll think about it.

Thanks.

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12-09-2007, 12:34 AM
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Another "common mistake," don't overrate potential. When looking at a prospect, be sure to factor in not only his upper limit (as most people do) but also the liklihood to reach this potential. Or better yet, try to come up with the "most likely upside."

And a suggestion: have a brief writeup of your team's situation to allow intelligent counterprosals. Include what else your team may offer to balance things. "My team wants to win now, we'd like scoring. We're willing to give up long-term defensemen in because we have extras."

I 2nd the "don't ask for a team's very top prospect/asset." The top asset almost never gets moved.

Addition to quality vs quantity: I'm of the impression that quantity is actually a bad thing. A 1 for 1 deal > a 2 for 1 deal > a 3 for 1 deal. And most of the time, the pieces in a package have a definite heirarchy. One is the centerpiece where the majority of the value should be, then maybe a long term positional replacement, then some filler assets to balance it out (picks go here, they are not centerpieces!).

I really like this thread idea. I was toying with the idea of making something similar, but didn't have the hubrus to claim I knew it all.


Finally I was toying with the idea of proposing a "currency system" for the trade board. I think it should be expressed in terms of a hypothetical 14.5th place team's draft pick. When you list a player, put in parenthesis what you think that player is worth in terms of draft picks. That way when someone from a different team wants to make a counterproposal, they know approximately how much value to include to make it close to what you're expecting. Also, it's easy to tell where the homerism is coming to play.

Example: Person 1: "My team is out of the playoffs and is looking to sell Player X. I'm looking for 3x 1DPs in value (like the Ryan Smyth trade, 3 mid-level 1sts)." Person 2: "I'll offer you my 1st round pick acquired from the league's bottom team and Prospect Y, our team's 1st round pick 2 years ago. Since the pick is likely to be #1 overall, that's 2x 1DP, and Prospect Y is worth 1 DP = 3x 1DP in total value."

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12-09-2007, 12:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hasbro View Post
Couple suggestions:

2nd round pick is will not make up the difference between any two players

Don't state because a player grew up a fan of (team) that he will take the first chance to sign there as a fact.
Good suggestions,and I definitely nominate this thread for the best we have observed on this board.

It should be permanently stickied and those who frequently
keep posting illogical stupid threads without reading this one should get some infractions
or even being permanently banished from posting on this particular forum.

Well-written and extremely explicative topic who properly evaluates the important aspects
that go into the decisionnal process when organization make trades.

I have certain suggestions to add as well:

-If you are elaborating a trade proposal involving a elite player and you offer
a couple of promising youngsters for him,be aware that it is still exactly a quality for quantity deal,even if the youngsters have great potential and high ceiling.Teams trade commonly for proven,established players,not for some virtually unproven talent.

For Example:

Lecavalier for some young players who might breakout ....


Last edited by Stephen Locke*: 12-09-2007 at 07:50 AM.
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12-09-2007, 12:49 AM
  #19
Yelnats Puc
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Another "common mistake," don't overrate potential. When looking at a prospect, be sure to factor in not only his upper limit (as most people do) but also the liklihood to reach this potential. Or better yet, try to come up with the "most likely upside."
Very good point, it will make it's way in for sure.

Quote:
And a suggestion: have a brief writeup of your team's situation to allow intelligent counterprosals. Include what else your team may offer to balance things. "My team wants to win now, we'd like scoring. We're willing to give up long-term defensemen in because we have extras."
That could definitely work for the final considerations section, makes plenty of sense.

Quote:
I 2nd the "don't ask for a team's very top prospect/asset." The top asset almost never gets moved.
Noted.

Quote:
Addition to quality vs quantity: I'm of the impression that quantity is actually a bad thing. A 1 for 1 deal > a 2 for 1 deal > a 3 for 1 deal. And most of the time, the pieces in a package have a definite heirarchy. One is the centerpiece where the majority of the value should be, then maybe a long term positional replacement, then some filler assets to balance it out (picks go here, they are not centerpieces!).
If I look to expand on it, I'll definitely consider this.

Quote:
I really like this thread idea. I was toying with the idea of making something similar, but didn't have the hubrus to claim I knew it all.
I tried to do it in the least condescending way possible, as I am well aware I don't know it all.


Quote:
Finally I was toying with the idea of proposing a "currency system" for the trade board. I think it should be expressed in terms of a hypothetical 14.5th place team's draft pick. When you list a player, put in parenthesis what you think that player is worth in terms of draft picks. That way when someone from a different team wants to make a counterproposal, they know approximately how much value to include to make it close to what you're expecting. Also, it's easy to tell where the homerism is coming to play.

Example: Person 1: "My team is out of the playoffs and is looking to sell Player X. I'm looking for 3x 1DPs in value (like the Ryan Smyth trade, 3 mid-level 1sts)." Person 2: "I'll offer you my 1st round pick acquired from the league's bottom team and Prospect Y, our team's 1st round pick 2 years ago. Since the pick is likely to be #1 overall, that's 2x 1DP, and Prospect Y is worth 1 DP = 3x 1DP in total value."
I've been thinking of something like this, but I figured it would get quite difficult to work with. It could work though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The President View Post
Good suggestions,and I definitely nominate this thread for the best we have observed on this board, It should be permanently stickied and those who frequently
keep posting illogical stupid threads without reading this one should get some infractions or even being banned from the Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk Board.
Well-written and extremely explicative properly evaluates the important aspects
that go into the decisionnal process when organization make trades.
Thanks. I appreciate it.

Quote:
I have certain suggestions to add as well

-If you are elaborating a trade proposal involving a elite player and you offer
a couple of promising youngsters for him,be aware that is exactly a quality
for quantity deal,even if the youngsters proposed have great ceiling and
potential. Teams trade mostly for proven ,established players,not for some random
material.
That goes along with what obobo23 brought up with not overrating potential, I'm definitely going to add a section for that sometime tomorrow. As for now, my bed demands I neglect it no longer.


I appreciate all the positive feedback, thanks again everyone.

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12-09-2007, 01:35 AM
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2) "Quantity=Quality"
Sending a bunch of trash players to one team will not net the other team a star. If you want quality, you need to give quality in return, it's that simple.

Hypothetically....say I proposed Thornton for Sturm, Primeau and Stuart....

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12-09-2007, 02:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLeprechaun View Post
Ok, well I've been thinking about doing this for a bit, but I've decided to give it a go and see how it's received.

Everyone knows that the majority of trade proposals on here can be quite ridiculous, because people tend to miss many important aspects that go into the decision process when teams make trades. I hope to cover most of these aspects, as well as point out a couple common errors that posters make.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Things to Think About When Making a Proposal:

1) Team Needs
Taking into account both teams' needs in terms of positions and skill is very important. Don't fall into the trap of looking at one team's need and then fulfilling it at the expense of the other team. Both teams need to have motivation to do the trade, not just your hometeam.

2) Contract Status
Is the player a UFA next season? Is he signed long-term? Is he being paid more than they're worth? Does he have a NTC? Contract status is a very big part of trades, as teams tend to value players who are signed long-term more than impending UFAs. On the other hand, however, trade deadline deals more often than not are for UFAs who teams are interested in "renting" for a playoff run.
Obviously, how much a player is being paid is a big part of it as well. A player who is making less than he could has significantly higher value than one who is making more than he should be.
Don't forget to check if a player has a No Trade/Movement Clause in his contract. If a player has a NTC, he's very likely not going to a team which isn't a strong contender. Though things like personal connections and whether a player has played for his potential destination before, as well as the desirebility of the respective city, can also affect a player's decision. Chances are, however, that if the team is unlikely to make a Cup run sometime during the remaining years on the player's contract, the player would rather stay home.

3) Salary Cap
To go along with contract status, looking at a team's Cap status in relation to the price of the contracts being moved is a must. If a team doesn't have room to make a trade, the trade doesn't happen, simple as that.
Along the same lines, teams often have a self-imposed Salary Cap. Do your best to find out what payroll a team is looking to operate at.
Don't forget, not only is there a Salary Ceiling, but there's also a Salary Floor. A team cannot go below the Salary Floor in the same way they cannot go above the Ceiling.
You can use the fact that contracts are pro-rated to your advantage if necessary. For example, a trade halfway through the season would only move the remaining half of the player's contract that has yet to be paid. So even if a team doesn't have enough room for a player at the beginning of the season, they may have room for him at the trade deadline.
Finally, don't just look at contracts for one year; if a contract will put a team over the cap for next year, or cuff them in terms of re-signing players with expiring contracts, they likely won't do it. Obviously this doesn't apply to UFA rentals.

4) Team goals
All teams are trying to win a Stanley Cup, but not all of them are doing it in the same way. Some are happy with their rosters and not looking to make a trade, some are geared up for a Cup run and looking to make minor tweaks, others are retooling, and again others are looking to rebuild entirely. Not all of these teams are looking for the same thing in trades. A team who wants to make a Cup run isn't going to trade their star for picks and/or prospects, while a team that's rebuilding isn't going to be looking to trade their future for a trade deadline rental. Figure out what the team's looking to do, then make your proposal accordingly.

5) Draft Picks
Not all draft picks are alike. A 1st from one team in one year would not be the same as a 1st from another team in another year. Obviously, team placement in the final standings affect the quality of the draft pick, so a higher ranked team would have lower quality draft picks than a lower ranked team. Also, different draft years are different quality. Some drafts are very top heavy, with the first 5 picks or so being quality, but have it drop off significantly. In drafts like this, picks that aren't likely to be in this top 5 are not nearly as good as ones that are likely to place in the top.
Draft picks are not always the quick fix solution to make up the difference in a trade, so think about the value of a pick with regards to the developement time and the likely skill level of the resulting player. This, again, varies by draft and team, so be careful.

Common Mistakes to Avoid:

1) "Homerism"
Just because a player plays for your team, doesn't mean he's better than he would be if he played elsewhere. Be very cafeful when evaluating your own players, too often posters overvalue their own players and pay a price for it.

2) "Quantity=Quality"
Sending a bunch of trash players to one team will not net the other team a star. If you want quality, you need to give quality in return, it's that simple.

3) "It Worked in NHL 08"
This is not fantasy hockey, so you can't simply see if a trade works in a fantasy game and decide it's a good trade. There are so many factors that fantasy game don't take into account that you need to.

Final Things to Consider:

1) Spelling and Grammar
Take some time to make your post presentable; check to make sure it's uses proper punctuation, capitals where necessary, and that the words are spelled right. Don't stress if you miss a word or two, but I guarantee you'll taken more seriously if you put effort into making your post look nice. The board has a nice spell check feature that can come in handy, be sure to use it.

2) Take criticism for what it is
If you make a proposal that isn't quite right, chances are you'll get some criticism and advice to make it better. Don't flame them or fight them because they disagree with you, use their advice to help you tweak your proposal to get more in line with what it should be.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Feel free to comment and offer things that you think I may have missed, I know I probably missed something, but with your help we could probably make a solid guide.

Thanks in advance and I hope you appreciate it.
What if you proposal comes true. How many lottery tickest should I buy?

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12-09-2007, 02:22 AM
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Does it really matter? This isn't the NHL's central registry.

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12-09-2007, 02:27 AM
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I think posters who frequently keep posting irrelevant and stupid threads should
be even banned from the trade rumors and free agents talk.Seriously,to improve
the quality of posting around here.

insane666 and Riffo are both immediately first on the list.

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Old
12-09-2007, 02:50 AM
  #24
HughJass*
 
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Location: High Point, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLeprechaun View Post
This is not fantasy....
False.

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Old
12-09-2007, 02:54 AM
  #25
Towelie*
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 8,385
vCash: 500
Then again, these guidlines would have had everyone laughing at a proposed Bertuzzi for Luongo deal years ago....

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