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01-16-2008, 01:19 AM
  #101
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I didn't make anything up. Coburn blew a tie game at Buffalo with two terrible plays inside 15 seconds. Then he tripped over his own feet at Jersey.

Nothing was said here. In fact, on the play where he fell down, one poster's comment here was something like: "Weak goal by Biron."

What did you have to say about it?
It was a weak goal by Biron. A shooter should have to roof a shot from that location in order to get it by him... what did Zajac (pretty sure that was who was shooting) do? He took a crap shot that squeezed through Biron glove side.

He should of had it. That's a weak goal.

That doesn't mean Coburn didn't fall over... it just means Biron shouldn't have a shot go through him.

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01-16-2008, 01:25 AM
  #102
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A "ton", hunh?

16 Games played
17 Giveaways

What is a "giveaway" anyway?

Oh and thanks for the blog link - very cool the way Meltzer is in the comments fielding questions, quite neat.
a giveaway is a turnover... pretty self explanatory. he has a -13 giveaway/turnover ratio, that's pretty brutal over such a short sample.

and 1 per game is simply awful... even Hatcher isn't at that rate, and he's an absolute machine given he doesn't make too many up ice passes.

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01-16-2008, 01:42 AM
  #103
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Gagne was not checked on that play. He was behind the play. He put his head down and dug, then cruised. Three more strides and he'd have saved the goal. But you didn't even see the play, probably. Vandermeer was the Easy Blame.
bear in mind, that the moment Nitty came out of the net, the Flyers theoretically were going to control the puck (in some fashion), therefore the players responsibility is to get to a place where they can receive a pass or react to the puck. the fact that Nitty put it in the exact spot where it shouldn't of gone was kinda surprising to everyone... the moment Nitty comes out of the net no one is really sure where they should be going.

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01-16-2008, 10:03 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by JXC View Post
A "ton", hunh?

16 Games played
17 Giveaways

What is a "giveaway" anyway?

Oh and thanks for the blog link - very cool the way Meltzer is in the comments fielding questions, quite neat.

A giveaway is an unforced turnover. There usually isn't a giveaway charged if another player is credited with a takeaway.

Offensive minded defensemen who handle the puck a lot and try longer outlet passes tend to get charged with more giveaways -- although Jason Smith led the NHL in giveaways with Edmonton last season. As long as they usually recover, you can live with more turnovers.

However, Jones' ratio of a giveaway per game over that stretch was unacceptably high. To give you a sense, here are the current NHL giveaway leaders among defensemen:

1) Lubomir Vishnovsky (47 GP, 66 giveaways)
2) Tomas Kaberle (46 GP, 48 giveaways)
3) Andrei Markov (45 GP, 46 giveaways)
4) Steve Staos (47 GP, 46 giveaways)
5) Hal Gill (46 GP, 45 giveways)

For the season, Jones has 25 giveways in 38 games. That's not hideous. He started out the season well, but the giveway frequency started to creep up in late November and he went through a very tough stretch.

After a four giveaway game in Toronto the night Niitty stood on his head for the win, has gone several games without one (the reduced pressure of being back on the third pairing has helped, IMO, although he and Smith have not shown much chemistry as a pairing).

By the way, Jones/Kukkonen are a plus-10 when paired together this year. Kukkonen was minus-five paired with Rory Fitzpatrick and even with all other partners (mostly Timonen and Hatcher). Jones is minus-two with Timonen, minus-two with Smith and even with all other partners.

Getting back to giveways, here are the Flyers' defense ratios this yearm from fewest to most:

1) Kukkonen (35 GP, 10 giveways)
2) Smith (39 GP, 14 giveways)
3) Vandermeer (37 GP, 16 gives, with Flyers: 11 GP, 6 gives)
4) Hatcher (27 GP, 17 gives)
5) Jones (38 GP, 25 gives)
6) Coburn (43 GP, 27 gives)
7) Timonen (41 GP, 29 gives)

Again, you expect your more offensive-minded defensemen to have more giveways than the stay-at-home types. The stat only tells you so much.


Last edited by Bill_Meltzer: 01-16-2008 at 10:18 AM.
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Old
01-16-2008, 10:15 AM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JXC
Gagne was not checked on that play. He was behind the play. He put his head down and dug, then cruised. Three more strides and he'd have saved the goal. But you didn't even see the play, probably. Vandermeer was the Easy Blame.
No, what i was saying was Gagne got his stick in on Ward's shot at the last minute. Your losing focus if you are blaming Gagne for not getting back enough for your tastes. It was a weak as slapshot from the point, right along the ice, traveling at a slow speed. If Niitty was properly positioned in the net, that puck would never have gone in.

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01-16-2008, 10:22 AM
  #106
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No, what i was saying was Gagne got his stick in on Ward's shot at the last minute. Your losing focus if you are blaming Gagne for not getting back enough for your tastes. It was a weak as slapshot from the point, right along the ice, traveling at a slow speed. If Niitty was properly positioned in the net, that puck would never have gone in.
If Nitty plays it to the open side of the ice and out of the zone there's no slapshot.

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01-16-2008, 11:46 AM
  #107
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Wow, Bill thanks for the clarification and explanation. Good food for thought.

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ABy the way, Jones/Kukkonen are a plus-10 when paired together this year. Kukkonen was minus-five paired with Rory Fitzpatrick and even with all other partners (mostly Timonen and Hatcher). Jones is minus-two with Timonen, minus-two with Smith and even with all other partners.
Agreed on that, I thought Jones-Kukkonen looked very good as well.

But say you wanted to pair the two again.

Who would take the press box? I think Hatcher looks weaker and weaker every day, but he's making too much coin to sit. I guess there's Vandermeer, but he looked okay with Timonen, Smith didn't, and Coburn couldn't because that leaves Hatcher and Smith as a pairing. Kind of a Chinese puzzle, with one piece missing.

Thanks again for the info.

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01-16-2008, 11:49 AM
  #108
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No, what i was saying was Gagne got his stick in on Ward's shot at the last minute. Your losing focus if you are blaming Gagne for not getting back enough for your tastes.
I'll bet even Gagne blamed himself. He's not a God, you know.

The original assertion was "bleeping Frank!" then "bleeping Vandy!" then "bleeping Stevens for playing Nitty for Marty and Vandy for Kukkie!".

If Gagne digs three more steps, the shot never happens. That's all I am saying, not blame.

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01-16-2008, 11:50 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Bill_Meltzer View Post
Getting back to giveways, here are the Flyers' defense ratios this yearm from fewest to most:

1) Kukkonen (35 GP, 10 giveways)
2) Smith (39 GP, 14 giveways)
3) Vandermeer (37 GP, 16 gives, with Flyers: 11 GP, 6 gives)
4) Hatcher (27 GP, 17 gives)
5) Jones (38 GP, 25 gives)
6) Coburn (43 GP, 27 gives)
7) Timonen (41 GP, 29 gives)

Again, you expect your more offensive-minded defensemen to have more giveways than the stay-at-home types. The stat only tells you so much.
An example of why the statistic isn't perfect... Smith is very good at certain things, but he's not exactly a genius at getting the puck out of the zone on a teammates stick. What he does do, is avoid making soft plays, or simply passing it directly to the opposition (what Hatcher has been doing recently).

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01-16-2008, 11:50 AM
  #110
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Kind of a Chinese puzzle, with one piece missing.
You hit the nail on the head with that one.

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01-16-2008, 11:52 AM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JXC View Post
I'll bet even Gagne blamed himself. He's not a God, you know.

The original assertion was "bleeping Frank!" then "bleeping Vandy!" then "bleeping Stevens for playing Nitty for Marty and Vandy for Kukkie!".

If Gagne digs three more steps, the shot never happens. That's all I am saying, not blame.
Depends on who you're talking to. You do this a lot, take one person's thoughts and make them everyone's.

Personally, I blamed Nitty right from the start, it was a stoppable shot.

Like your last line, if Nitty plays the puck to someone other than Ward (you know, someone wearing Orange and Black), the shot never happens.

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01-16-2008, 11:54 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by JXC View Post
I'll bet even Gagne blamed himself. He's not a God, you know.

The original assertion was "bleeping Frank!" then "bleeping Vandy!" then "bleeping Stevens for playing Nitty for Marty and Vandy for Kukkie!".

If Gagne digs three more steps, the shot never happens. That's all I am saying, not blame.
Except the moment Nitty comes out of the net and it's clear he was going to beat the Bruin to the puck, everyone is transitioning from "defense" to (technically) "offense" as the puck was going to be moved by THEIR teammate. That's the hole in that line of argument. Nitty turned the puck over... this isn't shocking, when goalies are put in positions to make that play they routinely screw up outside of the select few that are good at handling pucks, and European goalies are largely awful at handling the puck.

It was a bad turnover, by Nitty, that led to the shot on goal... not anyone failing in their backcheck role. I don't blame Vandermeer either... Nitty put everyone on the ice in a bad spot positionally and then didn't get himself centered in the net when the shot came and got beat short side on a very slow shot (something that should never happen if you're positioned to the shooter correctly).

It was a rough, and broken play that led to a goal... **** happens.

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01-16-2008, 11:56 AM
  #113
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The stat only tells you so much.
Agreed. And more importantly, the subjectivity of gauging "giveaways" makes the stat that much less significant, IMO.

I like Kukkonen a lot, so I'm not trying to bash him here....but, there is no way that he only had 10 giveaways in his 35 games played this year. No way.

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01-16-2008, 11:56 AM
  #114
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I don't want to go through 5 pages so someone tell me...how did the tides of this discussion turn?

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01-16-2008, 11:57 AM
  #115
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An example of why the statistic isn't perfect... Smith is very good at certain things, but he's not exactly a genius at getting the puck out of the zone on a teammates stick. What he does do, is avoid making soft plays, or simply passing it directly to the opposition (what Hatcher has been doing recently).
Also, Smith led all NHL defensemen in giveaways last year and I believe he was 4th the year before. He's been better in that area this year because he rarely has to handle the puck (that's one reason why I cringe whenever Hatcher and Smith are paired together-- they clear out the front of the net, but neither can handle the puck or outlet it very well).

As I wrote earlier, the giveaway stat tends to skew in favor of defensive D.

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01-16-2008, 11:59 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Storm in a Teacup View Post
Depends on who you're talking to. You do this a lot, take one person's thoughts and make them everyone's.

Personally, I blamed Nitty right from the start, it was a stoppable shot.

Like your last line, if Nitty plays the puck to someone other than Ward (you know, someone wearing Orange and Black), the shot never happens.
Yes, agreed on all that, Storm. I cannot follow all these threads and do at time confer a statement onto the wrong person. Guilty as charged. Will try to course correct.

Maybe I am pointing out Gagne's role because that kind of thing drives me CRAZY. Did Lukowich beat some Flyers down the ice to win a game for Jersey last year, shorthanded maybe even? Brad Lukowich!

I HATE that, more than any play in hockey.

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01-16-2008, 12:01 PM
  #117
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Agreed. And more importantly, the subjectivity of gauging "giveaways" makes the stat that much less significant, IMO.

I like Kukkonen a lot, so I'm not trying to bash him here....but, there is no way that he only had 10 giveaways in his 35 games played this year. No way.
Agreed, but there's the same give-and-take for every player in the NHL. It does seem to vary from city to city, as does the frequency with which hits or takeaways are awarded.

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01-16-2008, 12:08 PM
  #118
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Hey Bill, while you are here, can you give me three opinions?

1. Hatcher's future. Kovalchuk makes a lot of defensemen look bad, but he made a move on Hatcher that had Hatcher spinning like a pirouette because Hatcher tried to shift weight to a leg that wouldn't bear up. He has one year left on his deal. What are the Flyers' options?

2. What is Randy Jones' top upside, in your opinion?

and

3. Why isn't Kukkonen dressing?

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01-16-2008, 12:09 PM
  #119
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Except the moment Nitty comes out of the net and it's clear he was going to beat the Bruin to the puck, everyone is transitioning from "defense" to (technically) "offense" as the puck was going to be moved by THEIR teammate. That's the hole in that line of argument. Nitty turned the puck over... this isn't shocking, when goalies are put in positions to make that play they routinely screw up outside of the select few that are good at handling pucks, and European goalies are largely awful at handling the puck.

It was a bad turnover, by Nitty, that led to the shot on goal... not anyone failing in their backcheck role. I don't blame Vandermeer either... Nitty put everyone on the ice in a bad spot positionally and then didn't get himself centered in the net when the shot came and got beat short side on a very slow shot (something that should never happen if you're positioned to the shooter correctly).

It was a rough, and broken play that led to a goal... **** happens.
If most goalies are as bad at handling the puck as you indicate (which I'm fully on board with), why are the players transitioning to offense when Nitty comes so far out of his net to handle a puck in overtime? To me - and I would think to a defensively responsible player like Gagne - the onus would be on keeping the puck out of our own net while it's vulnerable and waiting a few seconds before switching back to offense mode. I just can't believe how many NHL players take it as a given that their goalie will handle the puck properly when most of them are terrible at it.

note: I don't mean to excuse Nitty here at all since he could possibly have made a better play with it and he certainly was out of position when the shot came, but I think Gagne is partially responsible as well.

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01-16-2008, 12:10 PM
  #120
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Agreed, but there's the same give-and-take for every player in the NHL. It does seem to vary from city to city, as does the frequency with which hits or takeaways are awarded.
Yep, the variance is and will likely always be a problem, unfortunately. I think hits and giveaways/takeaways are definitely stats that you have to take with a grain of salt.

Common occurences are one like the other day in the Bruins game when I recall JJ and Jonesy laughing about how the stat sheet had Jason Smith with 0 hits when they believed he clearly had at least a few.

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01-16-2008, 12:10 PM
  #121
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Agreed. And more importantly, the subjectivity of gauging "giveaways" makes the stat that much less significant, IMO.

I like Kukkonen a lot, so I'm not trying to bash him here....but, there is no way that he only had 10 giveaways in his 35 games played this year. No way.
if you think the giveaway statistic is kind just to Kukkonen, you need to check out some of the stats after games for Hatcher and Smith when notable turnovers don't get counted in the boxscore. that stat is kind to everyone.

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Also, Smith led all NHL defensemen in giveaways last year and I believe he was 4th the year before. He's been better in that area this year because he rarely has to handle the puck (that's one reason why I cringe whenever Hatcher and Smith are paired together-- they clear out the front of the net, but neither can handle the puck or outlet it very well).

As I wrote earlier, the giveaway stat tends to skew in favor of defensive D.
Yeah, I knew Smith was going to be that way when he came in... as advertised. A gutsy guy, but he really should never have the puck on his stick in a key situation that doesn't involve icing it. I personally cringe whenever i see Smith/Hatcher, or Hatcher/Jones... Hatcher seems to be much, much looser with the puck (stats bear this out) than Smith, so he's a somewhat terrifying partner for just about anyone...

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01-16-2008, 12:15 PM
  #122
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If most goalies are as bad at handling the puck as you indicate (which I'm fully on board with), why are the players transitioning to offense when Nitty comes so far out of his net to handle a puck in overtime? To me - and I would think to a defensively responsible player like Gagne - the onus would be on keeping the puck out of our own net while it's vulnerable and waiting a few seconds before switching back to offense mode. I just can't believe how many NHL players take it as a given that their goalie will handle the puck properly when most of them are terrible at it.

note: I don't mean to excuse Nitty here at all since he could possibly have made a better play with it and he certainly was out of position when the shot came, but I think Gagne is partially responsible as well.
The problem is (in my experience as well), when goalies come out no one really knows what they're going to do. What you're asking Gagne is to go play defense on a guy when Nitty may throw the puck to the other side of the ice (which he should of done). You gotta have SOME faith in your players to make remotely good decisions... going to defend a guy in the one place that Nitty shouldn't of put the puck simply doesn't make sense.

It's similar to telling a wide receiver to go cover a DB when the QB is scrambling rather than going to open field.

Going and playing defense on a guy when the opponent doesn't have the puck just doesn't make any sense... Nitty didn't even need to make a fancy play there for it to be a non-issue, he just needed to throw the puck to the right and out of the zone and it's a non issue... ya know, what pretty much everyone would expect him to do.

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01-16-2008, 12:27 PM
  #123
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if you think the giveaway statistic is kind just to Kukkonen, you need to check out some of the stats after games for Hatcher and Smith when notable turnovers don't get counted in the boxscore. that stat is kind to everyone.
Did I say I think the giveaway statistic is kind just to Kukkonen? I was simply using him as an example.

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01-16-2008, 12:38 PM
  #124
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Did I say I think the giveaway statistic is kind just to Kukkonen? I was simply using him as an example.
Right, but if it's universally kind... then that factor becomes irrelevant. That's just how the stat works.

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01-16-2008, 12:55 PM
  #125
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Right, but if it's universally kind... then that factor becomes irrelevant. That's just how the stat works.
I don't necessarily think it's universally kind. I would rather say that the subjectivity of the statistic will always lead to it being somewhat erratic and unpredictable.

Even if it was just one "expert" guy who did nothing but track giveaways for every team, every game of the year....there would still be instances where some people would agree with his decisions and some people would disagree with some of his decisions...and then instances where people that disagreed about one thing would agree about another. There's simply too much subjectivity, any way you look at it.

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