HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > New York Rangers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Rangers 45% chance of Making Playoffs

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
01-28-2008, 04:47 PM
  #1
DontStepanMe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Queens, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 5,381
vCash: 500
Rangers 45% chance of Making Playoffs

Interesting article I saw today, as a professor tried to come up w/ the percentages for each team making the playoffs. We were 8th in the East percentagewise w/ a 48% chance. Unfortunately all the teams in the Southeast were below us percentagewise which would actually place us in 9th in terms of real standings.

I kinda agree w/ the model of who will be in and who will be out. The Rangers will be 7th highest I think and I can really see them ending up at the #9 slot.


http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/HomeMainSt...95379-sun.html

DontStepanMe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 04:48 PM
  #2
broadwayblue
Registered User
 
broadwayblue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: NYC
Country: United States
Posts: 15,765
vCash: 500
Still too early to predict with any accuracy imo. But I guess it doesn't sound unreasonable to think we've got basically a 50/50 shot of getting in.

broadwayblue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 05:06 PM
  #3
incawg
Registered User
 
incawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Canuckland
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,009
vCash: 500
They did this for baseball. At one point during the season the Mets were a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs...and we all know how that worked out. I wouldn't put too much stock into trying to quantify such predictions.

incawg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 05:17 PM
  #4
wereback
Registered User
 
wereback's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: NJ
Country: United States
Posts: 620
vCash: 500
Just win and we will have a 100% chance of making the playoffs....

wereback is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 05:20 PM
  #5
Forechecker
Registered User
 
Forechecker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Country: Netherlands
Posts: 4,322
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Forechecker
Quote:
Originally Posted by incawg View Post
They did this for baseball. At one point during the season the Mets were a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs...and we all know how that worked out. I wouldn't put too much stock into trying to quantify such predictions.
Well. that .3% was the likelihood of them dropping most of September, so it probably pretty accurate.

Forechecker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 05:31 PM
  #6
lundy
Registered User
 
lundy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: NYC
Country: United States
Posts: 3,602
vCash: 500
The Rangers are going to make it this year, a solid second half just feels likely to me. But that's because it happened last year...and because I want it to.

lundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 05:45 PM
  #7
TomLaidlaw
Registered User
 
TomLaidlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Transylvania
Country: Romania
Posts: 3,176
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rags225 View Post
Interesting article I saw today, as a professor tried to come up w/ the percentages for each team making the playoffs. We were 8th in the East percentagewise w/ a 48% chance. Unfortunately all the teams in the Southeast were below us percentagewise which would actually place us in 9th in terms of real standings.

I kinda agree w/ the model of who will be in and who will be out. The Rangers will be 7th highest I think and I can really see them ending up at the #9 slot.


http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/HomeMainSt...95379-sun.html
But there is only a 10% chance of that.
-Captain Ed Hocken

TomLaidlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 06:00 PM
  #8
isles20*
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,660
vCash: 500
I say they grab the 6th or 5th seed. Am i going to get slammed down as i always do??

isles20* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 06:09 PM
  #9
RGY
(Jagr68NYR94Leetch)
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 8,526
vCash: 500
no reason to slam you down. I think its a good prediction of 5th or 6th place because realistically unless they get super hot where they wint 80% of their remaining games, theyre not gonna place any higher than 5th in the East.

I think it's stupid to look into all these numbers and percentages because as the old saying goes any team can win on any given day....and well the rangers can get hot and turn these last 2 wins into a 12 game winning streak and then all the sudden their right in the middle of the east pushing for the top. And this is only because the east is so tight this year as is the west.

RGY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 06:31 PM
  #10
TheMetalChick*
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Long Island
Country: United States
Posts: 4,513
vCash: 500
Ive been saying that all five of the Atlantic division teams are going to make the playoffs and Im sticking to that!

TheMetalChick* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 06:31 PM
  #11
HeaveHo94
PSN: NYC_RANGERS_94
 
HeaveHo94's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NY NEW YORK
Country: United States
Posts: 2,335
vCash: 500
6th place. Then all the way!

HeaveHo94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 06:59 PM
  #12
PrincetonRanger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Princeton, NJ
Country: Kazakhstan
Posts: 46
vCash: 500
Im just praying that we don't get the 8th seed and end up playing OTT in the first round.

edit: but playoff is better than no playoff...


Last edited by PrincetonRanger: 01-28-2008 at 07:00 PM. Reason: .
PrincetonRanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 07:40 PM
  #13
EvilCorporateLawyer
Very slippery slope
 
EvilCorporateLawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Country Roads
Country: United States
Posts: 75,138
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to EvilCorporateLawyer
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMetalChick View Post
Ive been saying that all five of the Atlantic division teams are going to make the playoffs and Im sticking to that!
I think you'll see it like this:

2nd: Flyers
4th: Devils
5th: Penguins
6th: Rangers
8th: Islanders

__________________
"Of course giving Sather cap space is like giving teenagers whiskey and car keys." - SBOB
"Watching Sather build a team is like watching a blind man with no fingers trying to put together an elaborate puzzle." - Shadowtron
"Used to be only Twinkies and cockroaches could survive a nuke. I'd add Habs to that. I'm convinced the CH stands for Club du Hypocrisy." - Gee Wally
EvilCorporateLawyer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 08:07 PM
  #14
John Torturella
Registered User
 
John Torturella's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 3,832
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan. View Post
I think you'll see it like this:

2nd: Flyers
4th: Devils
5th: Penguins
6th: Rangers
8th: Islanders
Im liking that 6th seed. Atlanta, Carolina or Tampa in the 1st round is basically a free pass to the semi-finals.

John Torturella is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 08:12 PM
  #15
RMcDonagh
New York Rangers Cup
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 6,267
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by motime42 View Post
Im liking that 6th seed. Atlanta, Carolina or Tampa in the 1st round is basically a free pass to the semi-finals.
Haha. 6th seed and Atlanta again would be priceless.


So would be another sweep against them.

RMcDonagh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 08:17 PM
  #16
NyRangers88
Section 208 Row 15
 
NyRangers88's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 10,424
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to NyRangers88
This whole article makes no sense. That guy says Ottawa has a 100% chance to make it and LA has 0%, but both teams are not stastically in or statstically out, far from it actually. There is no way these numbers can be accurate. A guess maybe, but not even close to accurate.

__________________
2013-2014 Eastern Conference Champions!!
NyRangers88 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 08:28 PM
  #17
TheSchwab
Registered User
 
TheSchwab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 2,080
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to TheSchwab
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyR424 View Post
This whole article makes no sense. That guy says Ottawa has a 100% chance to make it and LA has 0%, but both teams are not stastically in or statstically out, far from it actually. There is no way these numbers can be accurate. A guess maybe, but not even close to accurate.
its an educated guess... i mean i know Ottawa hasnt clinched yet, but they are in.

TheSchwab is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 08:41 PM
  #18
John Torturella
Registered User
 
John Torturella's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 3,832
vCash: 500
If they play the way we know they are capable of playing they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

John Torturella is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 08:44 PM
  #19
NyRangers88
Section 208 Row 15
 
NyRangers88's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 10,424
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to NyRangers88
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSchwab View Post
its an educated guess... i mean i know Ottawa hasnt clinched yet, but they are in.
I understand that, but to say that they have a 100% chance to be in is not true

NyRangers88 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 09:10 PM
  #20
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,717
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by motime42 View Post
Im liking that 6th seed. Atlanta, Carolina or Tampa in the 1st round is basically a free pass to the semi-finals.
I don't think Carolina would be a free pass at all.

Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 10:25 PM
  #21
Isles4ever11
Registered User
 
Isles4ever11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Country: Ghana
Posts: 10,952
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Isles4ever11
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan. View Post
I think you'll see it like this:

2nd: Flyers
4th: Devils
5th: Penguins
6th: Rangers
8th: Islanders
As cool and historical as that would be, I just don't see it happening because of that 8 game stretch at the end of the year. Too many points will be lost there, unless every game goes to OT ha!

I think the Flyers and Devils are practically locks. The Pens, IMO, are most likely to falter over time because of the loss of Crosby + their goaltending/defense struggles, and the Rangers, IMO, are the most likely to break out. The Islanders need to stay consistent, too though, because if they don't, they'll be out as well.

No predictions here, but I say 4 of the teams get in, with 1 of the Isles, Rangers, Pens* out of it.

* = bold prediction

Isles4ever11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 10:30 PM
  #22
RMcDonagh
New York Rangers Cup
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 6,267
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isles4ever11 View Post
As cool and historical as that would be, I just don't see it happening because of that 8 game stretch at the end of the year. Too many points will be lost there, unless every game goes to OT ha!

I think the Flyers and Devils are practically locks. The Pens, IMO, are most likely to falter over time because of the loss of Crosby + their goaltending/defense struggles, and the Rangers, IMO, are the most likely to break out. The Islanders need to stay consistent, too though, because if they don't, they'll be out as well.

No predictions here, but I say 4 of the teams get in, with 1 of the Isles, Rangers, Pens* out of it.

* = bold prediction
That's how I see it as well.

RMcDonagh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 10:32 PM
  #23
TheSchwab
Registered User
 
TheSchwab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 2,080
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to TheSchwab
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isles4ever11 View Post
No predictions here, but I say 4 of the teams get in, with 1 of the Isles, Rangers, Pens* out of it.

* = bold prediction
agreed.

TheSchwab is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-28-2008, 10:47 PM
  #24
007madden007
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 524
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyR424 View Post
This whole article makes no sense. That guy says Ottawa has a 100% chance to make it and LA has 0%, but both teams are not stastically in or statstically out, far from it actually. There is no way these numbers can be accurate. A guess maybe, but not even close to accurate.
I don't think that you are quite grasping the formula here.

In very simple terms, you are correct. Ottawa is only 12 points ahead of the ninth place team with aproximately 30 games left. If Ottawa failed to record a single point for the rest of the season, then they wouldn't make the playoffs. Statistically, though, there is no chance of that happening.

This season, the worst team in the NHL (LA) managed 42 points in their first 51 games, or .82 points per game. Last year, the Flyers managed 56 points, or .68 points per game.

So, even if the bottom falls out on the Senators and they play as bad as the Flyers did last year (the worst point total since 2000, btw), they would still pick up 20 points down the stretch.

That would put the Sens at 86 points. The Rangers currently sit in ninth with 54 points. If they play as well as the Sens have so far (1.32 ppg), they'd pick up 40 points, putting them 8 points ahead of the Senators.

Simple, eh? The Sens are out, the Rangers are in. But not so fast.

16 out of the Rangers remaining 31 games are against the Atlantic division, plus 2 against the Habs and 1 against the Bruins (two other teams ahead of them in the standings).

Do you see where this is headed? If the Rangers get hot, then it comes at the expense of other teams in the hunt. The hotter they get, the worse the other teams do. They could leapfrog a plunging Ottawa, but only at the expense of the Islanders, Penguins, etc. It simply isn't mathematically possible for all of those teams to pick-up enough points (because they are playing each other) to knock Ottawa out of the playoffs.

It works the same way with the Kings. Even if they played as well as the Wings have (1.52 ppg), they would still only wind up with 89 points. The 11th (!) place team in the west (Phoenix) is on pace for 90 points and is currently 2 points out of 8th. There is basically a six-team log-jam at the bottom of the west playoff hunt. Even if one or two of the teams drop out, the points will be lost to others in that group, meaning that LA can't get traction.

The report is accurate - it simply isn't possible for the Kings to make the playoffs.

007madden007 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-29-2008, 12:57 AM
  #25
TheMetalChick*
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Long Island
Country: United States
Posts: 4,513
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan. View Post
I think you'll see it like this:

2nd: Flyers
4th: Devils
5th: Penguins
6th: Rangers
8th: Islanders
Seems pretty reasonable... as long as the Rangers are hot against the division teams for the rest of the season.

I myself would love the Isles to play the Devs... I just think the series would be amazing. But then again, even if they did wind up playing Ottawa, the Isles have a winning record (so far lol) against the Sens for the first time in- um, forever lol? Who knows... the Isles play Ottawa again tomorrow, so Ill think about this possibility more tomorrow night after the game! Still scares me because Ottawa has had the Isles number since their inception.

Quote:
Originally Posted by motime42 View Post
Im liking that 6th seed. Atlanta, Carolina or Tampa in the 1st round is basically a free pass to the semi-finals.
Im not busting on you, but how do you have the nerve to say that? I dont mean its offensive or anything like that, I mean literally the nerve! I would never dare to even think something like that, let alone post it. Nothing is a "free pass" in the playoffs!!!

Are you the kind of person that has no problem talking about shutouts during games, too?

And FWIW I think its going to be Washington topping the SE.

TheMetalChick* is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:18 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.