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Rangers 45% chance of Making Playoffs

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Old
01-29-2008, 05:16 AM
  #26
Maximus
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Reading this professors theory thinking...hmmm.....sort of makes sense. Than I read where the Anaheim won't make the playoffs according to his numbers and quickly closed down the link thinking BS!!. Big problem with this dudes theories, it doesn't take player movement/trades into account. So sorry, don't buy it...shoot me!...

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01-29-2008, 09:37 AM
  #27
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Well whatever team takes that 6th spot is going to be in a good position, playing the Thrashers, Caps or Carolina in the first round - all three who are one point away from being in the 3rd to 10th on a daily basis.

That 6th spot is going to be pretty important. With Pittsburgh losing Crosby, its big time for the Islanders and Rangers to get above them in the standings, but like someone else said before, its going to be real tough to have all 5 teams in the Atlantic in the playoffs, unless all 5 teams start going on a 10 game tear right NOW.

There are too many games against eachother at the end of the year, too many points lost.

I hate this schedule this year. They should really do away with the extra points and this mini division playoff format at the end of the year. Its ridiculous. By the time the regular season closes all the teams will be exhausted playing 10 division games in last 10 games of the year. Putting all the eggs in one basket.

IM sure it will be exciting to watch but wait until the playoffs when all the teams fall apart and the games arent as potent because key guys will be injured...

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01-29-2008, 02:48 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus View Post
Reading this professors theory thinking...hmmm.....sort of makes sense. Than I read where the Anaheim won't make the playoffs according to his numbers and quickly closed down the link thinking BS!!.
You clearly didn't read the article. He has the Ducks listed at a 55% chance of making the playoffs, which means that they are more likely to be in the playoffs than not.

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Big problem with this dudes theories, it doesn't take player movement/trades into account. So sorry, don't buy it...shoot me!...
That's because they are completely IRRELEVANT to statistics and probability. Even if a team acquires a significant player and even if that player has a major impact on a team's points earned per game, other factors in a 30 game stretch run are more important, specifically the schedules and performance of the other teams in the hunt.

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01-29-2008, 03:44 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by 007madden007 View Post
You clearly didn't read the article. He has the Ducks listed at a 55% chance of making the playoffs, which means that they are more likely to be in the playoffs than not.



That's because they are completely IRRELEVANT to statistics and probability. Even if a team acquires a significant player and even if that player has a major impact on a team's points earned per game, other factors in a 30 game stretch run are more important, specifically the schedules and performance of the other teams in the hunt.

I actually DID read the article...really. And the professor dude has 8 teams ahead of Anaheim with HIGHER percentages than the Ducks 55%...check for yourself. And no offense my friend but player movement IS very important. Heck, the Ducks getting Selanne back all by himself raises Ducks chances at least another 15 to 20%. IMO, Ducks gettiing into the playoffs are 100% but hey....whatever.

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01-29-2008, 05:42 PM
  #30
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In regard to these spectacular articles, i heard 60% of the time, they're right everytime.

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Old
01-30-2008, 08:52 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Maximus View Post
I actually DID read the article...really. And the professor dude has 8 teams ahead of Anaheim with HIGHER percentages than the Ducks 55%...check for yourself.
Again, you're failing to grasp basic statistics and probability. The rank order of probability is not a prediction of the final eight playoff teams, but rather the chance that each team has to make the playoffs. If you look at the East, only 7 teams have a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs. Obviously, that doesn't mean that only 7 teams will make it, just that 3 of the teams (Rangers, Caps, Canes) will require some luck in order to get in.

When dealing with probability, the "gap" between the variables (potential outcomes) is critical.

Imagine that you have two hockey cards, a Gretzky rookie and a Jim Dowd common. If I put both cards in a hat, there is a 50% chance that you will pull out the Gretzky. If there are 3 Dowds and 2 Gretzky's in the hat, your chance of getting the Gretzky drops to 40%. You still have a good chance of getting the Gretzky card, but you are more likely to get a Dowd. Change the ratio to 99 Dowds and 1 Gretzky, though, and it is highly unlikely that you will get the card that you want. That doesn't mean you won't, just that the odds are against you.

The article shows that the Ducks are likely to make the playoffs. They probably will. The numbers simply indicate that they have a greater chance of missing the playoffs, for example, than the Canucks do.

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And no offense my friend but player movement IS very important. Heck, the Ducks getting Selanne back all by himself raises Ducks chances at least another 15 to 20%.
It really isn't important at the extreme ends of the scale (e.g. Detroit and Los Angeles). I'll concede that, for a team with middling odds (Coyotes, Ducks, Preds, Jackets), it could help but, with just 30 games remaining, it has less impact than you think. The second-place Sharks have won 56% of their games. The 14th place Hawks have won 46% of their games. If the Hawks somehow acquired Joe Thornton, would they be as good as the Sharks have been? Okay, that means they win 18 games of their final 32 instead of 15. 3 extra wins! The impact is fairly minimal, and they aren't much more likely to make the playoffs.

Your mistake is in thinking that all that matters is how a team plays or, more precisely, how many points they pick-up down the stretch. The Ducks won 51% of their first 53 games. Maintaining that pace would mean 15 wins in their final 29 games. How many more wins will Teemu deliver? Last year, they won 58% of their games. If adding Teemu makes them as good as last year, then they might expect to pick up 34 points down the stretch. Good, but not a slam dunk.

The best team in hockey this year has won 72% of their games. If the Ducks play that well down the stretch, they would finish with 102 points and almost certainly make the playoffs. If they only play as well as the second best team in hockey (Ottawa) has, however, they would only pick up 36 points and finish with 96. That was enough for Calgary to grab the eight slot last year, but isn't a guarantee of making it in the West.

You're also failing to factor in the impact of OT/SO. No matter how hot the Ducks get, the teams around and ahead of them can still pick-up points, which affects the Ducks chances of making the playoffs.

Again, in terms of probability, the numbers appear to be quite accurate.

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03-25-2008, 11:29 AM
  #32
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I thought it would be interesting to revisit this thread.

I've grouped the teams based on having clinched a spot, been eliminated, very likely in one group or another, or on the bubble. The probability from the original January report is beside each team.

IN PLAYOFFS

Detroit Red Wings 100%
San Jose Sharks 98%
Montreal Canadiens 93%

LOCKS FOR PLAYOFFS

Ottawa Senators 100%
New Jersey Devils 95%
Pittsburgh Penguins 92%
Anaheim Ducks 55%

ELIMINATED

New York Islanders 55%
St. Louis Blues 33%
Atlanta Thrashers 12%
Tampa Bay Lightning 11%
Los Angeles Kings 0%

VIRTUALLY ELIMINATED

Phoenix Coyotes 56%
Nashville Predators 46%
Columbus Blue Jackets 43%
Chicago Blackhawks 11%
Toronto Maple Leafs 3%

STILL FIGHTING

Philadelphia Flyers 98%
Minnesota Wild 90%
Boston Bruins 79%
Calgary Flames 75%
Dallas Stars 70%
Vancouver Canucks 66%
Colorado Avalanche 62%
New York Rangers 45%
Washington Capitals 44%
Carolina Hurricanes 43%
Florida Panthers 18%
Buffalo Sabres 16%
Edmonton Oilers 1%

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Old
03-25-2008, 11:57 AM
  #33
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lmao at flyers

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Old
03-25-2008, 12:04 PM
  #34
rayearth
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

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lmao at flyers
?

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Old
03-25-2008, 12:05 PM
  #35
WhipNash27
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As per the rodent's BerthWatch the Rangers have a 98.1% chance of making the playoffs, my how the tides have changed.

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03-25-2008, 12:19 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by rayearth View Post
I think he's laughing at the fact that they were a 98% lock, and then went into a freefall and now there's a much bigger possibility that they miss the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think they make the playoffs, but hopefully tonight won't be any help for them

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03-25-2008, 12:29 PM
  #37
rayearth
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Originally Posted by Levitate View Post
I think he's laughing at the fact that they were a 98% lock, and then went into a freefall and now there's a much bigger possibility that they miss the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I think they make the playoffs, but hopefully tonight won't be any help for them
I don't know how anybody could have possibly rated them so high to begin with considering last year's fiasco. Most on our board before the season figured we'd be 3rd or 4th in the division fighting for a playoff spot which is actually how it turned out.

Oh yeah, I just saw when that report was posted. Flyers were 2nd in the conference at the time, then proceeded to tank for 10 games.

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Old
03-25-2008, 04:33 PM
  #38
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I recommend a visit at the Senators board.
Guys there in full panic now of actually missing out!

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