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Old
02-21-2008, 03:08 PM
  #76
Ozymandias
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29

Please would anybody still having doubts or questions about how the magic number works should go read the above link.

I'm done.

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02-21-2008, 03:13 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dripper View Post
It's as simple as:
magic number = 2 * (82 - g) + p - h + 1


g = games played by highest PPG team not in the playoffs
p = total points of the highest PPG team not in the playoffs
h = Habs' total points
Finally.... someone who gets it.

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02-21-2008, 03:14 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Actually, if you would've read what I said, the bolded part IS how the magic number works. It has nothing to do with Buffalo, nor Philly nor the Rags. It has to do with the 9th seed.

JMMR is waaaaaay off track.
Okay, but I am having trouble finding in which of your posts I should have read this.


Perhaps it was here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Not really, not statistically, it's not their magic number....

The best points/games differential in 9th place or bellow in the WC are the Coyotes, they have 60 points in 54 games, with a possible 56 points remaining, minus the points difference with Detroit (26) = 30

Detroit's magic number is 30, which means they need to win 7-8 games (in the 27 games they have remaining) and Phoenix lose 7-8 games in regular time.
Although again it says if Phoenix loses 7-8 games which would be irrelevant if they fall to 10th along the way.

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02-21-2008, 03:15 PM
  #79
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http://intelligence-test.net/part1/

I got 16 in about 20 minutes. Not a genius after all

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02-21-2008, 03:16 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
Okay, but I am having trouble finding in which of your posts I should have read this.


Perhaps it was here:



Although again it says if Phoenix loses 7-8 games which would be irrelevant if they fall to 10th along the way.
It should have read "if the 9th place team loses 7-8 games." Whether it's Phoenix or Columbus or even SJ doesn't matter.

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02-21-2008, 03:18 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
Okay, but I am having trouble finding in which of your posts I should have read this.

Perhaps it was here:

Although again it says if Phoenix loses 7-8 games which would be irrelevant if they fall to 10th along the way.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
No it is not useless, because it tells us the point of no return.

I think you understand it all wrong because it is the total absolute opposite of arbitrary, it is based solely on the maximum points available for the team in 9th place compared to the team you want to know. Once the magic number hits 0, playoff birth is official.... nothing to do with personal opinion... saying that 92 points is what they need IS ARBITRARY, not the magic number. Magic number is about mathematical impossibility which is totally the opposite of arbitrary.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29

The point at which the team WILL 100% in the playoffs...

Just a hypothetical situation (our current MN is 35), if we are able to skim off alot of those points in the next 11 games (let's say, 7 wins = 14 points and 1 OT loss = total 15 pts) and Buffalo/Philly loses 5 regular time games and 1 in OT in their next 11-12 games (for a total of 11pts), the Habs magic number would then be at (35-26=9) 9, meaning the Habs would only need to get 9 points in their last 10 games or combined with any point loss from the Buff/Philly...

magic number is the factual number at which they are officialy IN the playoffs.

I did mention it had to do with the 9th seed, not the team itself.

Next time,

Try harder. Read better.


also, after saying the first paragraph, it thought it would be evident that it was based on that team staying in 9th place..... as I already had stated that it's based on the 9th seed....


Last edited by Ozymandias: 02-21-2008 at 03:26 PM.
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02-21-2008, 03:34 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dripper View Post
It's as simple as:
magic number = 2 * (82 - g) + p - h + 1


g = games played by highest PPG team not in the playoffs
p = total points of the highest PPG team not in the playoffs
h = Habs' total points
This does not give the correct answer. I believe this was JMMR's point.
To see this consider the following hypothetical situation on the last day of the season:

7. Habs 82 games 40 wins and 93 points
8. NYI 81 games 45 wins and 91 points
9. NYR 81 games 43 wins and 91 points.

Further suppose the Rangers and the Islanders play their final regular season game against each other.

Here g=81, p=91, h=93 and the formula predicts a magic number of 2(82-81) + 91 - 93 + 1 = 1. In fact the magic number is 0 since
at that point in time the Habs would already be mathematically guaranteed a playoff spot.

Of course, on the last day of the season we could all see that. However, this effect is in play all the time. As I say, this makes it virtually impossible to compute the true value of our magic number.

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02-21-2008, 03:38 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
I did mention it had to do with the 9th seed, not the team itself.

Next time,

Try harder. Read better.


also, after saying the first paragraph, it thought it would be evident that it was based on that team staying in 9th place..... as I already had stated that it's based on the 9th seed....

My point is that you say Detroit's magic number is 30. But Detroit winning 8 games and Phoenix losing 7 games in regulation does not guarantee the Red Wings a playoff spot.

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02-21-2008, 03:41 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
My point is that you say Detroit's magic number is 30. But Detroit winning 8 games and Phoenix losing 7 games in regulation does not guarantee the Red Wings a playoff spot.
Oh please this is getting bothersome....

this part said it all "it is based solely on the maximum points available for the team in 9th place compared to the team you want to know"


I concur that my example wasn,t the best because I should have mentionned that the team in the hypothesis would have to remain in 9th place.

But anyone who knows how the formula works already understands this principle in the hypothesis, they know full well, it is based on the 9th seed whatever team it might be.

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02-21-2008, 03:44 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
This does not give the correct answer. I believe this was JMMR's point.
To see this consider the following hypothetical situation on the last day of the season:

7. Habs 82 games 40 wins and 93 points
8. NYI 81 games 45 wins and 91 points
9. NYR 81 games 43 wins and 91 points.

Further suppose the Rangers and the Islanders play their final regular season game against each other.

Here g=81, p=91, h=93 and the formula predicts a magic number of 2(82-81) + 91 - 93 + 1 = 1. In fact the magic number is 0 since
at that point in time the Habs would already be mathematically guaranteed a playoff spot.

Of course, on the last day of the season we could all see that. However, this effect is in play all the time. As I say, this makes it virtually impossible to compute the true value of our magic number.


No, it is 1 per that equation because both team could win their last game and tie Montreal. That's why the (+1) is added to the formula.

Magic number being (1) if both team lose in regulation, that makes a -2 on the magic number.

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02-21-2008, 03:45 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by brownman View Post
http://intelligence-test.net/part1/

I got 16 in about 20 minutes. Not a genius after all
I gave up at 18. I don't want to be a genius. Some of those are pretty culturally relevant. Several bible references, and one about the united states flag.. Also a bunch of folklore and fairy tales and "sayings" that a younger person might not know.

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02-21-2008, 03:47 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
This does not give the correct answer. I believe this was JMMR's point.
To see this consider the following hypothetical situation on the last day of the season:

7. Habs 82 games 40 wins and 93 points
8. NYI 81 games 45 wins and 91 points
9. NYR 81 games 43 wins and 91 points.

Further suppose the Rangers and the Islanders play their final regular season game against each other.

Here g=81, p=91, h=93 and the formula predicts a magic number of 2(82-81) + 91 - 93 + 1 = 1. In fact the magic number is 0 since
at that point in time the Habs would already be mathematically guaranteed a playoff spot.

Of course, on the last day of the season we could all see that. However, this effect is in play all the time. As I say, this makes it virtually impossible to compute the true value of our magic number.
Of course in your example it seems like you are correct, but that is only because you take into consideration the upcoming matchups. When calculating the magic number of a team, you are not suppose to consider the upcoming match ups. The fact is if you don't know that the 8 and 9 teams will play against each other, the magic number is still 1.

Another moment where it doesn't work is at the beginning of the season, g = 0, p = 0, h = 0, so magic number = 165, which is not possible because 82*2 = 164.

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02-21-2008, 03:47 PM
  #88
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Haha yeah, though when I started googling them after, I gave myself a couple of slaps upside the head.

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02-21-2008, 03:51 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by brownman View Post
Haha yeah, though when I started googling them after, I gave myself a couple of slaps upside the head.
Yeah me too.. 8 tires on an o......ctowagon?
DAMN!
lol

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02-21-2008, 03:52 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
No, it is 1 per that equation because both team could win their last game and tie Montreal. That's why the (+1) is added to the formula.

Magic number being (1) if both team lose in regulation, that makes a -2 on the magic number.
Both teams cannot win their last game to sneak past Montreal since in the hypothetical situation they are playing each other (as I said).

Thus Montreal would be mathematically guaranteed to finish 8th and so make the playoffs. Yet the formula does reveal this. It gives 1 suggesting that the Habs would not yet be assured of post season play.

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02-21-2008, 03:55 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dripper View Post
Of course in your example it seems like you are correct, but that is only because you take into consideration the upcoming matchups. When calculating the magic number of a team, you are not suppose to consider the upcoming match ups. The fact is if you don't know that the 8 and 9 teams will play against each other, the magic number is still 1.

Another moment where it doesn't work is at the beginning of the season, g = 0, p = 0, h = 0, so magic number = 165, which is not possible because 82*2 = 164.
If you accept that the magic number is defined as predicting when a team is mathematically guaranteed to make the playoffs this example shows why the simple formula over-estimates that point. The fact is that we know that many of the teams in the east will in fact play each other in the coming weeks. This fact means that the formula gives too high a value.

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02-21-2008, 03:56 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
Both teams cannot win their last game to sneak past Montreal since in the hypothetical situation they are playing each other (as I said).

Thus Montreal would be mathematically guaranteed to finish 8th and so make the playoffs. Yet the formula does reveal this. It gives 1 suggesting that the Habs would not yet be assured of post season play.
Okay you're missing the entire point.

The Magic Number does not take into account schedule.

Your "magic number," when taking into account the schedule, is somewhat lower. I think we all agree on that. However it is far more complicated to calculate (and understand) and then it becomes the number of points required for us to secure a playoff spot assuming the worst-case scheduled scenario, which is not a magic number.

edit: Dripper below is correct. The magic number is still 1 in that case. Even overall it's correct, but it doesn't take into account points that are already lost because of the scheduling.


Last edited by coolguy21415: 02-21-2008 at 04:02 PM.
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02-21-2008, 03:57 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by brownman View Post
http://intelligence-test.net/part1/

I got 16 in about 20 minutes. Not a genius after all
1 got 23 in 30 minutes. According to this I'm a genius. My life will never be the same.

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02-21-2008, 03:58 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by brownman View Post
Haha yeah, though when I started googling them after, I gave myself a couple of slaps upside the head.
OH FFS...I didn't even think to google them. Shows you how much of a genius I am.

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02-21-2008, 03:58 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Puck View Post
Both teams cannot win their last game to sneak past Montreal since in the hypothetical situation they are playing each other (as I said).

Thus Montreal would be mathematically guaranteed to finish 8th and so make the playoffs. Yet the formula does reveal this. It gives 1 suggesting that the Habs would not yet be assured of post season play.
The formula remains correct anyway because there will be a loser in that game, who will become ninth, and lose at least 1 point, making them out of the playoff race.

Read the magic number of 1 as "the best PPG team not in the playoff race needs not to lose a point in its remaining game for my Habs not to make the playoffs"

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02-21-2008, 03:58 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Habs10Habs View Post
1 got 23 in 30 minutes. According to this I'm a genius. My life will never be the same.
I think a genius wouldn't have spent 30 minutes trying to prove that they were one

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02-21-2008, 03:59 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Habs10Habs View Post
OH FFS...I didn't even think to google them. Shows you how much of a genius I am.
I googled one actually because I was stuck at the 3 B M (S H T R) and I wouldn't let go. Finally it's some BS poem I've never heard of.

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02-21-2008, 03:59 PM
  #98
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I think a genius wouldn't have spent 30 minutes trying to prove that they were one
I spent X amount of hours on these boards. I think that points been proven a long time ago.

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02-21-2008, 04:00 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Habs10Habs View Post
I spent X amount of hours on these boards. I think that points been proven a long time ago.
Hahahahaha. True that.

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02-21-2008, 04:01 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Dripper View Post
I googled one actually because I was stuck at the 3 B M (S H T R) and I wouldn't let go. Finally it's some BS poem I've never heard of.
3 blind mice (see how they run)

I messed up that one at first, because I forgot to put the brackets. But if you only had to google one...that's very impressive.

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