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Current Projections, Blues IN

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Old
02-02-2008, 01:54 PM
  #1
CuSa_1
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Current Projections, Blues IN

1. Detroit 127
2. San Jose 101
3. Minnesota 98
4. Dallas 97
5. Calgary 96
6. Anaheim 91
7. Colorado 91
8. St. Louis 90
9. Phoenix 90
10. Vancouver 90
11. Nashville 90
12. Columbus 87
13. Chicago 80
14. Edmonton 77
15. Los Angeles 70

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Old
02-02-2008, 02:28 PM
  #2
Irish Blues
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1. Whose projections are these?
2. This is obviously assuming that the Blues are going to win the first tie-breaker; right now, they're 3 wins behind Phoenix and are 0-2-0 head-to-head, 2 wins behind Vancouver and tied for the 2nd tiebreaker [most points in head-to-head games] but trail in the 3rd [season goal differential; VAN is +7, we're -11], and 2 wins behind Nashville but leading the 2nd tiebreaker 6-5 with 3 games remaining.

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Old
02-02-2008, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
1. Whose projections are these?
2. This is obviously assuming that the Blues are going to win the first tie-breaker; right now, they're 3 wins behind Phoenix and are 0-2-0 head-to-head, 2 wins behind Vancouver and tied for the 2nd tiebreaker [most points in head-to-head games] but trail in the 3rd [season goal differential; VAN is +7, we're -11], and 2 wins behind Nashville but leading the 2nd tiebreaker 6-5 with 3 games remaining.
If we go by % of possible points, The Blues are tied for 8th, but we have to remember that up to this point, The Blues have played significantly better at home than on the road, and they have several more away than home gamesleft. In addition, they'd probably lose the # of wins tiebreaker, so we can't really say "they're back in a playoff position" till after they win their next 2-3 games in regulation.

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02-02-2008, 06:07 PM
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Robb_K
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Even after winning the next 3, I still would say it will be an uphill climb for The Blues to make the playoffs. If the trade deadline policy HAD to be decided upon now, I'd STILL plan on being a seller of veterans and trying to maximise our future assets, rather than trying to squeeze in this season.

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Old
02-02-2008, 06:30 PM
  #5
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Originally Posted by Robb_K View Post
Even after winning the next 3, I still would say it will be an uphill climb for The Blues to make the playoffs. If the trade deadline policy HAD to be decided upon now, I'd STILL plan on being a seller of veterans and trying to maximise our future assets, rather than trying to squeeze in this season.
We can trade a vet or two AND squeeze in.

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Old
02-02-2008, 06:34 PM
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It comes down to this. Some of us will look at the positive possibilities this season has, and some of us will whine about how the season is already over so it's time to tank. We all know it doesn't look promising this year, but there is still a lot to play for.

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Old
02-02-2008, 07:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DarthVTEC View Post
It comes down to this. Some of us will look at the positive possibilities this season has, and some of us will whine about how the season is already over so it's time to tank. We all know it doesn't look promising this year, but there is still a lot to play for.
I agree that The Blues shouldn't give up. Making the playoffs will help the image of the team, to help the attitude of young players in thye organisation, and it will help keep people in the stands-bringing in more money. It will help attract UFAs.

Veterans can be traded off for younger players which can help the team win games THIS season. I'm all for it.

But we shouldn't assume their in, just because they project to 8th place, with a grueling schedule ahead. I'll feel better when they are lodged in 6th place pointswise, and have been scoring a lot better, the power play is scoring, the defence is playing better, and they're winning consistently -even on the road.


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02-02-2008, 07:58 PM
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My projections

Blues average 90.2 points everyone else that rounded to 90 were below 90.2

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Old
02-03-2008, 10:02 AM
  #9
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I have 2 models I use - both are designed to be a "who makes the playoffs?" indicator. One is a "simple" model that gives one indication, the other simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times given what teams have done to date.

In the first, the Blues are out of the playoffs by about 4 points with Phoenix and Nashville in; the margin of error is about 6 points right now, so the Blues have a chance - but it's not a good one. In the 2nd [run prior to last night's games], the Blues had a 26% chance of a playoff spot with an average finish of 12th in the conference and 24th overall.

We're not in by any stretch; last night's game underscored this.

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02-03-2008, 10:48 AM
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Irish: Does your simulation take into account The Blues' record in home vs. away games so far this season? Does it take into account The Blues' previous record this season against teams it will play in remaining games? Does it assume that Legace will continue to be able to play most of the games (e.g. the same % of games he's played so far -despite a plethora ofback-to backs coming up)?

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02-03-2008, 10:53 AM
  #11
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One version takes into account strength-of-schedule but not performance H/A. The other looks at what teams have done H/A and what they've done in their last 10 games and does a weighting between the two.

I'm working on a bigger, better version right now - but it's only v1.0 at the moment.

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Old
02-03-2008, 02:25 PM
  #12
Irish Blues
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BTW - I just ran the 2nd model. According to it, we have a 26% chance of making the playoffs, with an average finish in the West of 10.8 and an average of 83.8 points - and would pick 7th in the draft.

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Old
02-03-2008, 02:56 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
BTW - I just ran the 2nd model. According to it, we have a 26% chance of making the playoffs, with an average finish in the West of 10.8 and an average of 83.8 points - and would pick 7th in the draft.
What does your computer model say about Avs?

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Old
02-03-2008, 03:22 PM
  #14
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Based on our current number of points earned in home and away games...and the number of remaining home and away games remaining...the Blues will finish with 87 points for the season (50 home/37 away) if they continue their established pace. (Picking 13th in the draft)

EAST:
Ottawa 105
Montreal 102
Philadelphia 101
Pittsburgh 98
New Jersey 96
Boston 93
NY Rangers 88
Carolina 84
--------------------------
Buffalo 87
NY Islanders 83
Atlanta 83
Washington 82
Florida 80
Toronto 78
Tampa Bay 71

WEST:
Detroit 128
San Jose 103
Minnesota 100
Dallas 98
Calgary 95
Colorado 92
Nashville 92
Anaheim 90
---------------------------
Vancouver 90
Phoenix 89
St. Louis 87
Columbus 84
Chicago 80
Edmonton 77
Los Angeles 68


Last edited by Stealth JD: 02-03-2008 at 03:57 PM.
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Old
02-03-2008, 04:40 PM
  #15
Irish Blues
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Originally Posted by Mules View Post
What does your computer model say about Avs?
They have a 72% chance of getting in. For everyone else, the chances of getting in are
Anaheim - 40%
Calgary - 74%
Chicago - 26%
Columbus - 35%
Dallas - 92%
Detroit - 100% [they've got a 92% of being 1st in the West]
Edmonton - 17%
Los Angeles - 7%
Minnesota - 88%
Nashville - 70%
Phoenix - 52%
San Jose - 85%
Vancouver - 40%

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Old
02-03-2008, 04:40 PM
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Robb_K
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
BTW - I just ran the 2nd model. According to it, we have a 26% chance of making the playoffs, with an average finish in the West of 10.8 and an average of 83.8 points - and would pick 7th in the draft.
I'll take a #7 pick in THIS draft, plus getting a big return for Jackman, and futures for Rucinsky, and possibly Bäckman and even Walker.

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Old
02-03-2008, 09:43 PM
  #17
Randall Ritchey
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lets trade up and pick up stamkos. LETS DO IT

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