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In the upcoming draft....

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01-29-2004, 05:05 PM
  #1
Slats432
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In the upcoming draft....

If the season ended today, and there seems to be a reasonable likelyhood with our MVP out and possible deadline deals that the Oilers are going to look past CBA and likely finish not much higher than they are now.

Philadelphia will likely stay close to the same, so discussion of our drafting strategy will be a good thing. By the looks of it, 7th and 29th as of this moment.

Let us just say for a moment with Ovechkin, Chipchura, Malkin, Olesz, Wolski, Schwarz go top six and we have a party after selecting Barker at 7.(I don't think he lasts to 7, but you never know.)

Now the pick, the interesting pick....I think that we MUST take a goalie with this pick. Everytime I think about the future of the franchise with all the eggs in one basket, scares the bloody bejeezus out of me. JDD is a good prospect. But his numbers always scare me. His save percentage and GGA are worse than the other goalie for Chicoutimi Alexandre Vincent. So as good a prospect as he is, let's just make sure that we have an alternative in the organization.

With Schwarz off the board early, the attention turns to the next few goalies available.

Dubnyk
Montoya
Peters
Shantz
Ellis
Brown

Now let's look at between us and 29 to see what might be available when we get there.

Florida ---Do not need a goalie until at least 2010.
Buffalo ---Not a chance in hell.
Minnesota ---Harding is solid. Brust is the other option.
NY Rangers ---Blackburn is the future. The hedges are Lundqvist and Labarbera.
Atlanta ---Lehtonen is the future. They won't take a goalie.
Phoenix ---Boucher, Bierk, Leneveu, I think they will go elsewhere.
NY Islanders ---Ricky D and the unknown Dubielewicz, with Topping to top it off.
Los Angeles ---The first team that could take a goalie. If they are really high on Munce and Zaba and don't see something they like, Montoya could go here.
Montreal ---Theodore, Garon, Michaud, Puurua, Halak.
Nashville ---Finley could be heathy. Vokoun is still young. Lasak coming and two goalies drafted last year Sidikov and Lassila.
Tampa Bay ---Wildcard might take a goalie but starters not too old, Konstantinov, Eklund and Boutin in the system. Probably could use a center in the system.
Dallas ---Turco, Ellis, Bacashihua. Safe here.
Calgary ---With Kiprusoff, McLennan and 4 goalies in their top 10 on HF, probably safe.
St. Louis ---Nissinen, Barulin, Sandford, Rudkowsky, Divis, Osaer. Osgood is not too old yet either.
Boston ---Raycroft, Toivonen. No goalie going here.
San Jose ---Nabokov, Toskala, Patzold and Ehelechner. Solid.
New Jersey ---Ahonen is a top prospect. Clemmensen is a decent goalie. I doubt it here.
Ottawa ---Emery and Thompson. No needs here.
Toronto ---Todd Ford, Sebastien Centomo, Michael Tellqvist. Hard to say for sure.
Detroit ---Liv, Howard, MacDonald, Koopmans.
Vancouver ---Don't know how high they are on Mensator and Auld. Another Wildcard.

So, after Schwarz, there are two goalies that are really good left(Possibly more...I am high on Brown, but don't know enough about Ellis, Peters etc.), but there is a possibility that Los Angeles, Tampa and Vancouver all want to see a goalie too. If two out of those three teams decide on a goalie...then I guess we go for another skilled guy? Take David Brown or one of the other available goalies?

I say that if Dubnyk or Montoya are there at 29....it is a no brainer.

Discuss.

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01-29-2004, 05:22 PM
  #2
s7ark
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Hmm i kinda disagree to be honest. I think that in the current NHL there are PLENTY of hot young goaltenders coming up through the ranks. Buffalo alone has 3. I think we can easily trade for one of the hot young prospects. I feel we need to draft talent, not position. I think we need more skill and a shooter (pref both in one package). I like the look of our D for years to come so am not all that High on Baker. I still think we should offer Jason Smith, Horcoff, and our 2 picks for Washington's first BEFORE the draft day. before even the trade deadline. Given the firesale the Caps are putting on, they have a real chance of going top 3 in the draft. Or make the same offer to the Pens, see who bites.

I would dealy love to have a top 3 pick this year. I think after Ovechkin and Malkin go, there is still plenty of talent for that 3rd pick


But those are just my thoughts. I think we should stop looking at things like size and positions we need to fill. Draft the best possible player with each pick and trade them as needed to fill the holes you have.

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01-29-2004, 05:22 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
If the season ended today, and there seems to be a reasonable likelyhood with our MVP out and possible deadline deals that the Oilers are going to look past CBA and likely finish not much higher than they are now.

Philadelphia will likely stay close to the same, so discussion of our drafting strategy will be a good thing. By the looks of it, 7th and 29th as of this moment.
7th seems like a reasonable guess ,could be lower or higher depending on injureies, trades, etc. As for PHI, they are now currently 2nd overall, but IF NJ (3GIH, 3 pts back, curently hold the wins tiebreaker) wins the division the latest PHI could pick is 24th unless they win the cup, in which case they'd pick 30th.

Quote:
Let us just say for a moment with Ovechkin, Chipchura, Malkin, Olesz, Wolski, Schwarz go top six and we have a party after selecting Barker at 7.(I don't think he lasts to 7, but you never know.)
I think Schwarz might slip at least to EDM, but who knows. I don't like the idea of taking a 5'9" goalie that early anyways (to me it doesn't seem like that is where the game is heading), but who knows what the scouts will say, and I obviously know almost nothing about Schwarz other than what I saw from the WJC; there must be some reason he's so highly thought of.

Quote:
Now the pick, the interesting pick....I think that we MUST take a goalie with this pick. Everytime I think about the future of the franchise with all the eggs in one basket, scares the bloody bejeezus out of me. JDD is a good prospect. But his numbers always scare me. His save percentage and GGA are worse than the other goalie for Chicoutimi Alexandre Vincent. So as good a prospect as he is, let's just make sure that we have an alternative in the organization.

With Schwarz off the board early, the attention turns to the next few goalies available.

Dubnyk
Montoya
Peters
Shantz
Ellis
Brown

Now let's look at between us and 29 to see what might be available when we get there.

Florida ---Do not need a goalie until at least 2010.
Buffalo ---Not a chance in hell.
Minnesota ---Harding is solid. Brust is the other option.
NY Rangers ---Blackburn is the future. The hedges are Lundqvist and Labarbera.
Atlanta ---Lehtonen is the future. They won't take a goalie.
Phoenix ---Boucher, Bierk, Leneveu, I think they will go elsewhere.
NY Islanders ---Ricky D and the unknown Dubielewicz, with Topping to top it off.
Los Angeles ---The first team that could take a goalie. If they are really high on Munce and Zaba and don't see something they like, Montoya could go here.
Montreal ---Theodore, Garon, Michaud, Puurua, Halak.
Nashville ---Finley could be heathy. Vokoun is still young. Lasak coming and two goalies drafted last year Sidikov and Lassila.
Tampa Bay ---Wildcard might take a goalie but starters not too old, Konstantinov, Eklund and Boutin in the system. Probably could use a center in the system.
Dallas ---Turco, Ellis, Bacashihua. Safe here.
Calgary ---With Kiprusoff, McLennan and 4 goalies in their top 10 on HF, probably safe.
St. Louis ---Nissinen, Barulin, Sandford, Rudkowsky, Divis, Osaer. Osgood is not too old yet either.
Boston ---Raycroft, Toivonen. No goalie going here.
San Jose ---Nabokov, Toskala, Patzold and Ehelechner. Solid.
New Jersey ---Ahonen is a top prospect. Clemmensen is a decent goalie. I doubt it here.
Ottawa ---Emery and Thompson. No needs here.
Toronto ---Todd Ford, Sebastien Centomo, Michael Tellqvist. Hard to say for sure.
Detroit ---Liv, Howard, MacDonald, Koopmans.
Vancouver ---Don't know how high they are on Mensator and Auld. Another Wildcard.

So, after Schwarz, there are two goalies that are really good left(Possibly more...I am high on Brown, but don't know enough about Ellis, Peters etc.), but there is a possibility that Los Angeles, Tampa and Vancouver all want to see a goalie too. If two out of those three teams decide on a goalie...then I guess we go for another skilled guy? Take David Brown or one of the other available goalies?

I say that if Dubnyk or Montoya are there at 29....it is a no brainer.

Discuss.
by the same token, if you look at the teams behind EDM, which teams would want Schwarz?

ANA- no
CLB - no
CHI - maybe, I'll concede that and they'll probably finish in the slot about where Schwarz is set to be drafted. they aren't set poorly in goal though, I could easily see them taking Barker or a F over Schwarz
PIT or WSH - no, one will will get ovechkin (most likely), plus fleury and oullette.
CAR - maybe, but they have Ward

all the schwarz talk aside (I never like drafting goalies that early, but recent trends seem to show it's less of a crapshoot than it used to be. Maybe the times are changing faster than I am on that ), I'd still probably rather wait until the Oilers 2nd rounder (37 based on a 7th last pick) to go ahead and take a goalie or the leetch comp. Of course, I haven't scouted these guys and if you take a F or D at 7 and there's a goalie you can't possibly pass up at PHI's pick I'm fine with that as well.

so I guess, ultimately, my answer is:

who knows?

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01-29-2004, 05:29 PM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
I say that if Dubnyk or Montoya are there at 29....it is a no brainer.
I would be love to see Lowe grab Montoya with the second pick if he was still available.

Part of me thinks that most of top goalies will make it through the first round this year without being picked. Up until a few years ago, it was almost unheard of to select a goalie as high as soem teams have lately and right now there are so many good young and READY goalies out there, I don't think to many teams are seeing a real urgency.

As far as the likely teams ahead of the Oilers and their need for a goalie, the wild card (which goes against what I wrote above) is that anyone of those teams could still select one based on the reasoning that they feel the player in question is the best player available at the time and in that sense it's just good asset management. Secondly it is not very common to see goalies make an impact within 4 years of being drafted in which case it can then be reasoned that any one of the teams that are set today in net may see a change in their goaltending needs when any of this years draft is ready to come up.

For me, goaltending has been a strange position to follow the last few years. Irregardless of what people think of Salo's contract today, at the time he signed the extension it was viewed as a great thing. Goalies were being signed for 6,7,8 mil a year and there didn't seem to be many quality guys out there. Now three years later there seems to be all sorts of options and at a fraction of the price. Unfortunately in Edmonton's case the once great contract has become an albatross for the team and they can't persue anyone until either Tommy is traded or the contract is over.

At one point I was hearing that this draft wasn't going to be real strong and now recently that opinion seems to be changing. Does anyone know what can be expected?

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01-29-2004, 05:30 PM
  #5
Slats432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark
Hmm i kinda disagree to be honest. I think that in the current NHL there are PLENTY of hot young goaltenders coming up through the ranks. Buffalo alone has 3. I think we can easily trade for one of the hot young prospects. I feel we need to draft talent, not position. I think we need more skill and a shooter (pref both in one package). I like the look of our D for years to come so am not all that High on Baker. I still think we should offer Jason Smith, Horcoff, and our 2 picks for Washington's first BEFORE the draft day. before even the trade deadline. Given the firesale the Caps are putting on, they have a real chance of going top 3 in the draft. Or make the same offer to the Pens, see who bites.

I would dealy love to have a top 3 pick this year. I think after Ovechkin and Malkin go, there is still plenty of talent for that 3rd pick


But those are just my thoughts. I think we should stop looking at things like size and positions we need to fill. Draft the best possible player with each pick and trade them as needed to fill the holes you have.
The talent goes to us with our first pick, and historically, the Oilers take a forward of talent with the first pick, and then a dman or goalie with the 2nd. I just think we need to add another goalie to the kitty this year.

And no GM in their right mind trades away their first that is in a lottery position for Ovechkin. I know I wouldn't. Maybe after the lottery, you might get number two or three to trade the pick....regardless, first round or second round...we need another goalie.

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01-29-2004, 05:35 PM
  #6
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Goalies typically go late in the first round, or in the preceding rounds unless they're a really rare talent like DiPietro, Lehtonen, or Fleury, which go in the top ten.
Year - #in 1st rd (Position)
2003 - 1 (1)
2002 - 3 (2, 25, 29)
2001 - 4 (8, 10, 26, 29)
2000 - 2 (1, 9)
1999 - 3 (6, 22, 27)

With 7 good goalies in this year's draft, I'm pretty sure that even with Philly's pick we could pick up one of the top four goalies in the draft. I think a lot of team's mentality is that a goalie's talent is harder to gauge than a forward or a defenseman, and therefore, drafting a goalie in the early phases of the first round is a high risk situation.

Schwarz is gone for sure, and possibly Dubnyk and/or Montoya, but who knows, maybe one of them will fall to the Oiler's second 1st round pick.

btw, good post. you brought up a good point about our need for another goalie. This is the perfect opportunity to snatch one with our two first rounders.

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01-29-2004, 05:48 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
The talent goes to us with our first pick, and historically, the Oilers take a forward of talent with the first pick, and then a dman or goalie with the 2nd. I just think we need to add another goalie to the kitty this year.

And no GM in their right mind trades away their first that is in a lottery position for Ovechkin. I know I wouldn't. Maybe after the lottery, you might get number two or three to trade the pick....regardless, first round or second round...we need another goalie.
We do need another goalie in the system AS WELL AS a 'bridge' goalie until JDD (or our to-be-acquired-other-goalie-in-the-system) is ready to step up to the NHL. Conks & Valiquette will not be our goalie tandem next year, but there are a number of options out there to tide us over until JDD or whoever is ready to step up.

I also don't see us getting someone's top-5 pick until after the lottery's done, but it would sure be interesting...!

Bart

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01-29-2004, 05:52 PM
  #8
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Just a short comment on JDD. I have family in Chicoutimi and I have never been a big believer in JDD. Seems a nice enough kid but he has never had a fast glove. The other goalie there is junior and JDD does tend to face the tougher teams so that may explain the GAA. Bottomline though, the thought is the new kid is a better prospect. So I think we need more goalies in the pipes. I do think its a buyers market though so I would use the draft for that dman or a real top 5 pick center.

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01-29-2004, 05:55 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speeds
7th seems like a reasonable guess ,could be lower or higher depending on injureies, trades, etc. As for PHI, they are now currently 2nd overall, but IF NJ (3GIH, 3 pts back, curently hold the wins tiebreaker) wins the division the latest PHI could pick is 24th unless they win the cup, in which case they'd pick 30th.



I think Schwarz might slip at least to EDM, but who knows. I don't like the idea of taking a 5'9" goalie that early anyways (to me it doesn't seem like that is where the game is heading), but who knows what the scouts will say, and I obviously know almost nothing about Schwarz other than what I saw from the WJC; there must be some reason he's so highly thought of.



by the same token, if you look at the teams behind EDM, which teams would want Schwarz?

ANA- no
CLB - no
CHI - maybe, I'll concede that and they'll probably finish in the slot about where Schwarz is set to be drafted. they aren't set poorly in goal though, I could easily see them taking Barker or a F over Schwarz
PIT or WSH - no, one will will get ovechkin (most likely), plus fleury and oullette.
CAR - maybe, but they have Ward

all the schwarz talk aside (I never like drafting goalies that early, but recent trends seem to show it's less of a crapshoot than it used to be. Maybe the times are changing faster than I am on that ), I'd still probably rather wait until the Oilers 2nd rounder (37 based on a 7th last pick) to go ahead and take a goalie or the leetch comp. Of course, I haven't scouted these guys and if you take a F or D at 7 and there's a goalie you can't possibly pass up at PHI's pick I'm fine with that as well.

so I guess, ultimately, my answer is:

who knows?
Personally, I think if Schwarz slips to #7, you grab him and run away laughing. Or even better, trade down a pick or two if you're confident no one will grab him. As you pointed out speeds, it's unlikely that any of the teams below us will grab him (save for Chicago), and as slats432 pointed out, the next team in line to grab any goalie would be Los Angeles.

I'm going on record to say that I think if Schwarz can improve on his lateral positioning (his lateral movement is outstanding, it's just that he has a tendancy to over-commit to the shooter when moving laterally), and his focus/ concentration, he'll be mentioned in the same breath as the best goalies to ever play this game. Of course, we all know what that and a $1.50 will get you at Tim Horton's

Schwarz maybe the fastest goalie I've ever seen from his knees to his feet. His reflexes and athleticism are out of this world, while he still manages to play fundamentaly sound positional hockey.

I don't know how our scouts (the guys who get paid for this, not just some idiot -"me" - typing away on a message board instead of doing the work he was supposed to have done yesterday) feel about him, but I think most of us believe that the franchise should be built from the goalie out, and I think Schwarz is that franchise goalie.

P.S - CSB has Marek Schwarz listed as 6'0, 176lbs.


Last edited by Ryno: 01-29-2004 at 06:14 PM.
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01-29-2004, 06:00 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
And no GM in their right mind trades away their first that is in a lottery position for Ovechkin.
I don't know if it's been talked about but I recall hearing the transfer agreement for players between the European leagues and the NHL expires this year.

In addition there has been some speculation that the Zherdev situation this year really pissed off the Russians and what was expected to be an easy renewal of the agreement may in fact be more complicated.

Apparently the Russians are saying that they want a small ransom for every player that comes over and the amount they are requesting could be too much for some teams to pay.

I guess the point I am getting at is, if a team like Pittsburgh won the lottery pick could they potentially be scared off using it for Ovechkin because there maybe a question mark as too wether or not they will be able to bring him over?

Further to that, if by some remarkable chance Lowe was in a position to aquire that pick should HE be concerned?

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01-29-2004, 06:01 PM
  #11
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well, 3 inches can make a big difference

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01-29-2004, 06:13 PM
  #12
Slats432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USC Trojans
Goalies typically go late in the first round, or in the preceding rounds unless they're a really rare talent like DiPietro, Lehtonen, or Fleury, which go in the top ten.
Year - #in 1st rd (Position)
2003 - 1 (1)
2002 - 3 (2, 25, 29)
2001 - 4 (8, 10, 26, 29)
2000 - 2 (1, 9)
1999 - 3 (6, 22, 27)

With 7 good goalies in this year's draft, I'm pretty sure that even with Philly's pick we could pick up one of the top four goalies in the draft. I think a lot of team's mentality is that a goalie's talent is harder to gauge than a forward or a defenseman, and therefore, drafting a goalie in the early phases of the first round is a high risk situation.

Schwarz is gone for sure, and possibly Dubnyk and/or Montoya, but who knows, maybe one of them will fall to the Oiler's second 1st round pick.

btw, good post. you brought up a good point about our need for another goalie. This is the perfect opportunity to snatch one with our two first rounders.
LOVE THE AVATAR USC.....

And people...I said...top 10 pick, take the juice...Barker, Tukkonen...and with the 29th OV pick, take one of the three best goalies in the draft. Or if you want to complain...we have the 7th pick in the 2nd round...but the likely hood of Dubnyk, Montoya or Schwartz being there is pretty nil.

If we ended up with a top 5 pick with the lottery(and not the first pick) I would never endorse using that pick on Schwartz.(But the "Use the Schwartz" jokes would almost be worth it.)

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01-29-2004, 06:22 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copperandblue
At one point I was hearing that this draft wasn't going to be real strong and now recently that opinion seems to be changing. Does anyone know what can be expected?
I can only go by what I have read on CSB, WJC and what I have watched of the CHL.

I see it great on the top end...and deep. If you take a look at just the blueliners....
Barker
Schultz
Green
Funk
Tesliuk
Fistric
Rogers
Schulz
Carson
Wharton
Valabik
Mannu
Sersen
Vienneau
O'Neill
Thelen
Smid
Lepisto
Lyamin
Meszaros
Fransson

And then goalies.
Schwarz
Dubnyk
Montoya
Brown
Peters
Shantz
Ellis
Glass

And the forwards being a bit below average(except on the top end)...I think that last year was so deep it was an anomoly...several guys in the 2nd round making their teams out of camp...Bergeron, Fritsche, Brown...

This year just looks like a regular year.

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01-29-2004, 06:34 PM
  #14
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I think Chipchura is going to have a tough time cracking the top 10 let alone the top 6. He isn't in Mckeens top 15. From what I gather there is a clear cut top 5:

1 Ovechkin
2/3 Olesz/Malkin
4 Barker
5 Schwarz

After that the lists start to vary, I'd say the next 3 best players are:

Wolski
Schremp
Tukonen

This is assuming that O'Neill and Stafford don't opt in because it would cost them there NCAA eligibility

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01-29-2004, 07:29 PM
  #15
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I'd like to keep BOTH picks, that gives up two shots at picking an excellent player. Reserve the Philly pick (25 - 29) for a goalie. Say we do get the 7th placed pick. See if Horcoff or Rita plus our seventh pick might get us a switch to 6th? Get a scoring forward. Best Talent type.

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01-29-2004, 07:41 PM
  #16
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I am the only one who wasn't impressed at all with Schwartz? He looked brutal at the WJC...

Mind you, I have never seen Kari Lehtonen play a good game yet either, and he is still pretty high.

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01-29-2004, 07:52 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
I am the only one who wasn't impressed at all with Schwartz? He looked brutal at the WJC...

Mind you, I have never seen Kari Lehtonen play a good game yet either, and he is still pretty high.
I didn't see anything that jumped out at me like the performance that some players did. From what I saw though, it seemed like a lot of the goals were because of poor defensive play rather than Schwartz.

But I agree. As of right this moment, I am glad that the Oilers will likely not select him.(Judging by where we draft and where he is projected to go. The Oilers won't select a goalie top 10, in my opinion.)

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01-29-2004, 08:27 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
I didn't see anything that jumped out at me like the performance that some players did. From what I saw though, it seemed like a lot of the goals were because of poor defensive play rather than Schwartz.

But I agree. As of right this moment, I am glad that the Oilers will likely not select him.(Judging by where we draft and where he is projected to go. The Oilers won't select a goalie top 10, in my opinion.)
Why draft a goalie in today's market? Johan Hedberg went for a 2nd round pick. Had MA Fleury not gone down to the minors today, I would say give Sebastian Caron a call. Goalies are in excess in the league since teams can only carry 3 or 4 and Patrick Roy inspired a lot of French-Canadian goalies.

I say we trade to get a goalie from a team looking to move one. Especially a young one. Biron, Noronen, Nurminen, Bierk, Boucher, Aubin, Caron.

Like someone said. Conklin is not a starter. So what happens if we don't resign Salo? JDD? whoever we draft this year as a goalie? We should trade/sign a young goalie out there already (Nurminen being my favourite option with Dafoe and Lehtonen in Atlanta) this off-season to hold the fort for JDD until he's ready. I understand drafting is a good idea for a goalie but it's hard to tell talent these days and goalies are abundant in the league and, IMO, not worth wasting a high pick on.

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01-29-2004, 08:33 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle
Why draft a goalie in today's market? Johan Hedberg went for a 2nd round pick. Had MA Fleury not gone down to the minors today, I would say give Sebastian Caron a call. Goalies are in excess in the league since teams can only carry 3 or 4 and Patrick Roy inspired a lot of French-Canadian goalies.

I say we trade to get a goalie from a team looking to move one. Especially a young one. Biron, Noronen, Nurminen, Bierk, Boucher, Aubin, Caron.

Like someone said. Conklin is not a starter. So what happens if we don't resign Salo? JDD? whoever we draft this year as a goalie? We should trade/sign a young goalie out there already (Nurminen being my favourite option with Dafoe and Lehtonen in Atlanta) this off-season to hold the fort for JDD until he's ready. I understand drafting is a good idea for a goalie but it's hard to tell talent these days and goalies are abundant in the league and, IMO, not worth wasting a high pick on.
29 or 37 isn't what I would consider a high pick.

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01-29-2004, 08:38 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
29 or 37 isn't what I would consider a high pick.
true, but I think the point is why spend a pick drafting a goalie when you could probably trade the pick for a goalie flat out, and skip all the development time?

I'm personally never a big fan of drafting a goalie early, but I could still see it with either the PHI 1st or EDM 2nd if a guy falls into your lap whom you feel you can't pass on.

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01-29-2004, 08:53 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
29 or 37 isn't what I would consider a high pick.
JDD was 31st, wasn't he?

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01-29-2004, 09:10 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle
JDD was 31st, wasn't he?
That is correct, and within the perameters of 29 and 37 I would like to see a goalie taken. And if Schwartz, Dubnyk and Montoya happen to be gone, I recommend forgetting about it entirely and taking a flyer on Brown or whoever in the 3rd/4th round if available.

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01-29-2004, 09:51 PM
  #23
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I feel that if the Oil should choose in the range 5-10 and Barker is still around, we should definitely NOT TAKE HIM. Either Schwartz, if the Oil's scouting staff have a real hard-on for him, or someone who can consistently put the puck in the net should be our choice.

1) D-man take notoriously long to develop. If we get a top ten pick, I don't think that we have the luxury of waiting 5 or 6 years for a d-man to round out his game.

2) As Slats mentioned, this draft seems to be very deep with defenseman and goaltenders. If you are going to make your first three picks a sniper, a goalie and a d-man, it would make more sense to take the sniper first, as the depth in that category falls off much sharper than the other two categories. The difference in talent between the scorer you would pick in the top ten, as opposed to the beginning of the second round seems to be MUCH greater than the difference in talent between the d-man picked in the top ten as opposed to the d-man picked at the beginning of the second round. (Does that make sense???)

3) Prendergast said Barker would be behind Coburn, Suter and Phaneuf on his list if he was eligible last year. Prendergast also said that he felt Barker should go in the top fifteen. Whether he just doesn't want to tip his hand to the rest of the league, or he really feels this way, he doesn't seem that high on the kid. Barker doesn't seem to be the sure bet that some past top-five d-men have been, and there are some high-potential wild-card d-men that will be available in the early second round.

In conclusion, I feel that the Oil will come out of the draft farthest ahead if we use our own first rounder on a legitimate scoring threat, and then Philly's first and our second on the best goalie and defenseman available.

I feel that this is one instance where the BPA theory has some wiggle room in it, as you look at your teams needs and who will still be on the board with your next few picks.

Thoughts????

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01-29-2004, 09:54 PM
  #24
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I think they should deal for a guy like Nurminen (though I'm biased as a big fan of his) or Biron or even Noronen, but preferably someone who can hold the fort with Conklin backing him up until JDD deserves a shot, they should draft a goalie with the 2nd rounder this year IMO (Ellis would be dynamite IMO, or a great USHLer named Cory Schneider) and give him quite a few years to develop and see what happens. If your first goalie becomes a legit No.1 great, same with if JDD does, and same with the pick this year. One of the 3 has to turn out, don't they?

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01-29-2004, 09:57 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boondock Saint
I feel that if the Oil should choose in the range 5-10 and Barker is still around, we should definitely NOT TAKE HIM. Either Schwartz, if the Oil's scouting staff have a real hard-on for him, or someone who can consistently put the puck in the net should be our choice.

1) D-man take notoriously long to develop. If we get a top ten pick, I don't think that we have the luxury of waiting 5 or 6 years for a d-man to round out his game.

2) As Slats mentioned, this draft seems to be very deep with defenseman and goaltenders. If you are going to make your first three picks a sniper, a goalie and a d-man, it would make more sense to take the sniper first, as the depth in that category falls off much sharper than the other two categories. The difference in talent between the scorer you would pick in the top ten, as opposed to the beginning of the second round seems to be MUCH greater than the difference in talent between the d-man picked in the top ten as opposed to the d-man picked at the beginning of the second round. (Does that make sense???)

3) Prendergast said Barker would be behind Coburn, Suter and Phaneuf on his list if he was eligible last year. Prendergast also said that he felt Barker should go in the top fifteen. Whether he just doesn't want to tip his hand to the rest of the league, or he really feels this way, he doesn't seem that high on the kid. Barker doesn't seem to be the sure bet that some past top-five d-men have been, and there are some high-potential wild-card d-men that will be available in the early second round.

In conclusion, I feel that the Oil will come out of the draft farthest ahead if we use our own first rounder on a legitimate scoring threat, and then Philly's first and our second on the best goalie and defenseman available.

I feel that this is one instance where the BPA theory has some wiggle room in it, as you look at your teams needs and who will still be on the board with your next few picks.

Thoughts????
Just one slight disagreement, Barker > Coburn, no doubt IMO, Barker is really getting a bad rap lately, I don't understand why, I'd probably take Phaneuf over him, I'm not sure about Suter (I don't see him much) but Barker is really getting underrated, if he drops to the 10-15 range someone is going to get a real steal.

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