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The official "all possible scenarios" thread

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:36 AM
  #1
kastaure
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The official "all possible scenarios" thread

Hi guys,

On the NHL.com site it says the Sens haven't yet clinched their playoff spot. Anybody knows what is the win / lost stas of the sens against the Caps and the Canes...

Because it seems that the only possible scenario....

If both the caps and the canes win and get 94 point each, phillys win all their game and boston get 3 point then you will have a triple equality on the 7-8-9 place and this will force one out of the series.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:38 AM
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Seb
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I've read on the sens board that the caps have won the most games toward eachother during the season.

IIRC, if the sens lose tonight and the caps wins, along with 2 victories from the flyers, they're out.

Edit : They lost all their 4 games against Washigton.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:42 AM
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usernam
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Against Carolina 2 wins, 2 loss, 15 GF, 11 GA:

Hurricanes 5 - 3 Sens
Sens 6 - 0 Hurricanes
Hurricanes 1 - 5 Sens
Sens 1 - 5 Hurricanes

Against Caps, 4 Losses:

Caps 4 - 1 Sens
Caps 8 - 6 Sens
Sens 3 - 6 Caps
Sens 2 - 4 Caps

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:42 AM
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coolguy21415
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If everyone keeps winning (Philly, Washington, Carolina, Boston) AND the Sens lose their last game (necessary, because it's vs. Boston) then the Sens will not make it.

The end result would be:
3 - Carolina - 94 pts
6 - Boston - 96 pts
7 - Philadelphia - 95 pts
8 - Washington - 94 pts
9 - Ottawa - 94 pts.

Washington and Carolina would both hold tie breakers against Ottawa, and Carolina holds the tiebreaker against Washington (making the 3rd).

Ottawa needs 1 point against Boston (or they need any of Boston, Washington, or Philly to lose a game) to clinch a playoff spot.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:45 AM
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If Washington, Carolina, Philly and Boston win their last games and Ottawa loses theirs, Washington and Ottawa would both have 94 pts and 43 wins. Washington is 4-0 against Ottawa this year and would therefore win a potential tie breaker, which would send Ottawa to 9th place.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedScull View Post
If everyone keeps winning (Philly, Washington, Carolina, Boston) AND the Sens lose their last game (necessary, because it's vs. Boston) then the Sens will not make it.

The end result would be:
3 - Carolina - 94 pts
6 - Boston - 96 pts
7 - Philadelphia - 95 pts
8 - Washington - 94 pts
9 - Ottawa - 94 pts.

Washington and Carolina would both hold tie breakers against Ottawa, and Carolina holds the tiebreaker against Washington (making the 3rd).

Ottawa needs 1 point against Boston (or they need any of Boston, Washington, or Philly to lose a game) to clinch a playoff spot.
How does Carolina have a tie breaker against Ottawa?

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by fufonzo View Post
How does Carolina have a tie breaker against Ottawa?
Total wins. With both teams having 94 points, Carolina would have 44, Ottawa would have 43. Regardless it doesn't really matter, because Carolina only needs to have a tiebreaker with Washington to lock up the division and get a playoff spot.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:50 AM
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It seems unlikely at any rate, we might be seeing the Sens in the first round, with Alfredssn and Fischer out for a few games, we should really capitalize on this opportunity. But for some reason, this year's edition isn't like years past, I'm not afraid of anyone. What a liberating and beautiful feeling. We can take on anyone and yes that includes New Jersey.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:51 AM
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coolguy21415
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Originally Posted by Form and Substance View Post
It seems unlikely at any rate, we might be seeing the Sens in the first round, with Alfredssn and Fischer out for a few games, we should really capitalize on this opportunity. But for some reason, this year's edition isn't like years past, I'm not afraid of anyone. What a liberating and beautiful feeling. We can take on anyone and yes that includes New Jersey.
Totally. It's more of an "I would prefer not to play team X" as opposed to "We can't play team X because we'll get killed." And generally the reasons to not play a team are ridiculous notions like karma, and whether the team would injure our players.

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:53 AM
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Flyers have to win both games against the Devils and Penguins.

ouch.

BTW: Isn't it great to watch this bottom race from the top point of view?

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Old
04-04-2008, 09:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb_Rafter View Post
Flyers have to win both games against the Devils and Penguins.

ouch.
They could only win 1 if Caps lose their last (I really doubt it happens)

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04-04-2008, 09:56 AM
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Seb
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoMo316 View Post
They could only win 1 if Caps lose their last (I really doubt it happens)
I was looking in a "the-sens-will-miss-the-playoffs" way

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Old
04-04-2008, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb_Rafter View Post
I was looking in a "the-sens-will-miss-the-playoffs" way
Ok. You're right then...ouch

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Old
04-04-2008, 10:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb_Rafter View Post
Flyers have to win both games against the Devils and Penguins.

ouch.

BTW: Isn't it great to watch this bottom race from the top point of view?
It is certainly better to watch the race for the playoffs from our vantage point. Nice to not be on pins and needles in the last weekend of the season.

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Old
04-04-2008, 10:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb_Rafter View Post
Flyers have to win both games against the Devils and Penguins.
Perfect Scenario for Montreal:
Philly beats Pittsburgh, while Habs beat Toronto, Habs FIRST.

Perfect scenario for those who don't want to see goonism rewarded:
Philly loses to NJ before beating Pittsburgh, then Washington wins their game, Philly OUT.

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Old
04-04-2008, 11:06 AM
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coolguy21415
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This isn't even close to calculus by the way. Just needed to clear that up. This is rudimentary algebra.

/mathgeek

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Old
04-04-2008, 11:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoMo316 View Post
Against Carolina 2 wins, 2 loss, 15 GF, 11 GA:

Hurricanes 5 - 3 Sens
Sens 6 - 0 Hurricanes
Hurricanes 1 - 5 Sens
Sens 1 - 5 Hurricanes
Since when do GF and GA count for anything?

The third tie-breaker is purely on PTS earned in games between the two teams. Since no game between Ottawa and Carolina went to the tie-breaker. The foruth tie-breaker, is counted on GF and GA for the entire regular season (not just between the two clubs). In which, Ottawa would own a +11.

HOWEVER, Carolina needs to win to tie Ottawa pts wise (and needs Ottawa to lose). This would case Carolina to own 44 wins while the Sens would have just 43.. thus the Canes would make the playoffs.

The Bruins need 3 pts in their last 2 GP coupled with a Sens loss.

The Flyers need 4 pts (2 wins) in their last 2 GP coupled with a Sens loss.

It's going to be a good race.

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Old
04-04-2008, 11:58 AM
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Not going to be easy cause the Flyers will have to win both their games

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Old
04-04-2008, 12:07 PM
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They Sens will make the playoffs. The Flyers suck too much to beat the Devs and Pens.

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04-04-2008, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lyle_Odelein View Post
They Sens will make the playoffs. The Flyers suck too much to beat the Devs and Pens.
shhhhhhhhh.

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Old
04-04-2008, 01:06 PM
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For the Sens to miss the playoffs, all 5 of these need to happen:
1. Sens lose to Boston in regulation
2. Boston gets a point vs Buffalo
3. Carolina wins vs Florida
4. Washington wins vs Florida
5. Philadelphia wins both games vs Pittsburgh and New Jersey

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Old
04-04-2008, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Habs 4 Life View Post
Not going to be easy cause the Flyers will have to win both their games
Maybe but they are not playing the Habs so they have a chance to do just that..

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Old
04-04-2008, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ginc View Post
For the Sens to miss the playoffs, all 5 of these need to happen:
1. Sens lose to Boston in regulation
2. Boston gets a point vs Buffalo
3. Carolina wins vs Florida
4. Washington wins vs Florida
5. Philadelphia wins both games vs Pittsburgh and New Jersey
So assuming a 40% chance of winning in regulation, 10% chance of winning in OT, 10% chance of losing in OT, and 40% chance of losing in regulation, the odds of the Sens missing the playoffs are:
0.4*0.6*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5 = 1.5% chance.

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Old
04-04-2008, 01:46 PM
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If Carolina finishes with 94 points, they win the Southeast - automatically in playoffs. Nothing to do with Senators.)

Tie Breaker only counts with Washington & Ottawa.. Washington has taken the season series.

Boston & Philly would have more points than Ottawa, assuming Boston & Philly win their games.

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Old
04-04-2008, 01:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fufonzo View Post
So assuming a 40% chance of winning in regulation, 10% chance of winning in OT, 10% chance of losing in OT, and 40% chance of losing in regulation, the odds of the Sens missing the playoffs are:
0.4*0.6*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5 = 1.5% chance.
We all know that carolina boston and washington will win their game... they all play team that are out of the playoffs and are desperate for a win so the 40% chance of winning in regulation should be like 75%

1. Sens lose to Boston in regulation
2. Boston gets a point vs Buffalo
3. Carolina wins vs Florida
4. Washington wins vs Florida
5. Philadelphia wins both games vs Pittsburgh and New Jersey

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