I don't think Windsor Spitfires forward Joshua Bailey gets enough hype around here. Ranked 16th by TSN, 12th (North America) by CSS, and 20th by ISS. Yet he sits 10th in OHL scoring. In fact, in the entire CHL, here's the Top 15 scorers for 2008 Draft Eligible prospects:
The Toronto native leads his team in scoring and wears the "A" for the Spitfires, who sit 3rd in the Western Conference behind Kitchener and Sault Ste. Marie. Since their captains untimely death, he's put up 17 points in 7 games.
So why doesn't he get much respect by any scouting services/armchair scouts on here? He's 8th in +/- in the OHL and has been called a great two-way forward, so I doubt it's his defense. His offensive totals speak for themselves, no arguing that. He now stands at 6'01 according to the OHL's websites, size is not a factor.
What separates him from Hodgson/Boychuk/Boedker/etc...?
I couldnt agree with you anymore. The way some scouting sites are rating him such as ISS at 20th and just the #12 N.A skater is awful. I believe Bailey would be considered a huge steal at the 20th position. Ive seen him quite a bit and he is a really good player in every zone on the ice and he certainley has the stats to prove it. I dont know how some of these scouting sites could seperate him so much from the guys you mentioned, I can see this kid being taken in the top 10 this year. He is a worker in every zone on the ice, isnt afraid to go into the corners, plays physical, great playmaker, smart with the puck, and has great hockey sense. Great two-way player IMO should be rated alot higher.
He's very effective but in a very quiet way. That's probably why.
I have to agree.
Although I think Bailey is a safe pick, I don't think he has any real "stand out" talents, that push him far ahead of some of the other players. I mean he stands out on the ice with his offensive flare and vision, but in comparison to others he misses some of those I dunno, "blue chip" assets. Like amazing speed, or a cannon shot.
He is a good 2-way player with very good hockey sense,decent size,good work ethic.good leadership skills,good stick-handler,GREAT DEFENSIVE AWARENESS ANTICIPATIONand RESPONSIBILITY --but the big BUTS are: i) skating speed is just very average ii) his shot is just average...Hockey sense can get you points;his defense is way above most juniors who get drafted--so he's a "safe" pick in that sense...but the speed/shot questions put limits on his upside at the next level in some scouts minds...thus while somekids project as first or 2nd liners if they fulfill potential--his projection is probably more 2nd-3rd line NHL'er..He could turn into just a defensive checking centre depending on his nHl situation beause a teams drafting him may already have first and 2nd line centres so if that is the situation he may get shuffled into just a defensive role on a third line...Other kids in the draft either will have to make it in the top six forwards or probably never make it inthe NHL--at least with Bailey you are "safe" because he can be projectedas useful on the bottom two lines...
IN other words--despite his 91 pts--his good defense and 2-way versatility ironically limits
how some scouts project him...Compare to the very fast atheletic BUT SMALL Zac BOYCHUK--he projects as a top six offensive player like a Gionta or St. Louis--but there also is a risk he'llnever make it due to the size issue...No coah would ever keep him as a 3rd line checking centre -he's too small for that..
IF Bailey also had speed and a better than just average shot--then he's be top 5...So what you have with Bailey is either a 3rd line checking centre or a possible 2-way 2nd line centre if he can generate enough points with the right linemates.
Generally he is a very good solid NHL prospect--but due to the above limitations and to his versatility should coaches want him as a defensive centre,you do not put such a player into a top 10--certainly not top 8 in the draft ..There you are looking for definite "home runs" to fill top six roles eventually or in D-men top 1-3 roles.
THis does not mean a team drafting 10th won't take him just because he's rated morelike 16-20....It depends on a team's positional org depth at centre and what types of centres they need or will need..
Note too that ISS has B.U.freshman centre Colin Wilson rated at #9 ..He too has skating speed issues-but is another 2-way centre--the difference is most scouts probably credit him for a better shot than Bailey has...HOWEVER I would not think that any "gap" between Wilson and Bailey is really that big a difference as to perhaps make some teams prefer Bailey instead-it could happen. If a team think some of Bailey's "intangibles" outweigh Wilson's they may prefer taking him ahead of Wilson..
So I can see Bailey going as high as 9th but he probably will not last as late as #20...
Wilson disappeared in the WJHC-U-20 final 2 games for team USA--that might signal some red flags to some teams..Bailey--while he benfits from playing on a line with the sensational 16 yr old phenom Taylor Hall and the definite -probably in the teens of round one--big power forward Greg Nemisz --which creates a great line--NEVERTHELESS cannot be said to be riding on their coattails--most think he is the "glue" of that line --providing leadership,hockeysense to "direct" them,and a defensive component to take pucks away and lead transitions,go into corners for tough effort to outwork the oposition and make plays off the boards to his wingers...theere realy is a lot to like about Bailey..but you also cannot overllok the fact his speed is just barely average...On the other hand,TAVARES has a huge speed problem too --but HE has a great shot/finish around the net--BUT then TAVARES stinks defensively--BAILEY is very good defensively--so a scout thinks TAVARES will be able to score at the NHL level butwill need ways to "cover"for him defensively;whereas the scout might think BAILEY will have trouble scoring goals at the NHL level --so he could just turn into another Jay McClement checking type. The whole key with BAILEY then willbe whata team's scouts think about his "intangibles" and whether they think that unlike with Mcclemment,BAILEY's hockey sense can make up for his lackof speed and lack of a great shot..
He is a good 2-way player with very good hockey sense,decent size,good work ethic.good leadership skills,good stick-handler,GREAT DEFENSIVE AWARENESS ANTICIPATIONand RESPONSIBILITY --but the big BUTS are: i) skating speed is just very average ii) his shot is just average...Hockey sense can get you points;his defense is way above most juniors who get drafted--so he's a "safe" pick in that sense...but the speed/shot questions put limits on his upside at the next level in some scouts minds...thus while somekids project as first or 2nd liners if they fulfill potential--his projection is probably more 2nd-3rd line NHL'er..He could turn into just a defensive checking centre depending on his nHl situation beause a teams drafting him may already have first and 2nd line centres so if that is the situation he may get shuffled into just a defensive role on a third line...Other kids in the draft either will have to make it in the top six forwards or probably never make it inthe NHL--at least with Bailey you are "safe" because he can be projectedas useful on the bottom two lines...
IN other words--despite his 91 pts--his good defense and 2-way versatility ironically limits
how some scouts project him...Compare to the very fast atheletic BUT SMALL Zac BOYCHUK--he projects as a top six offensive player like a Gionta or St. Louis--but there also is a risk he'llnever make it due to the size issue...No coah would ever keep him as a 3rd line checking centre -he's too small for that..
IF Bailey also had speed and a better than just average shot--then he's be top 5...So what you have with Bailey is either a 3rd line checking centre or a possible 2-way 2nd line centre if he can generate enough points with the right linemates.
Generally he is a very good solid NHL prospect--but due to the above limitations and to his versatility should coaches want him as a defensive centre,you do not put such a player into a top 10--certainly not top 8 in the draft ..There you are looking for definite "home runs" to fill top six roles eventually or in D-men top 1-3 roles.
THis does not mean a team drafting 10th won't take him just because he's rated morelike 16-20....It depends on a team's positional org depth at centre and what types of centres they need or will need..
Note too that ISS has B.U.freshman centre Colin Wilson rated at #9 ..He too has skating speed issues-but is another 2-way centre--the difference is most scouts probably credit him for a better shot than Bailey has...HOWEVER I would not think that any "gap" between Wilson and Bailey is really that big a difference as to perhaps make some teams prefer Bailey instead-it could happen. If a team think some of Bailey's "intangibles" outweigh Wilson's they may prefer taking him ahead of Wilson..
So I can see Bailey going as high as 9th but he probably will not last as late as #20...
Wilson disappeared in the WJHC-U-20 final 2 games for team USA--that might signal some red flags to some teams..Bailey--while he benfits from playing on a line with the sensational 16 yr old phenom Taylor Hall and the definite -probably in the teens of round one--big power forward Greg Nemisz --which creates a great line--NEVERTHELESS cannot be said to be riding on their coattails--most think he is the "glue" of that line --providing leadership,hockeysense to "direct" them,and a defensive component to take pucks away and lead transitions,go into corners for tough effort to outwork the oposition and make plays off the boards to his wingers...theere realy is a lot to like about Bailey..but you also cannot overllok the fact his speed is just barely average...On the other hand,TAVARES has a huge speed problem too --but HE has a great shot/finish around the net--BUT then TAVARES stinks defensively--BAILEY is very good defensively--so a scout thinks TAVARES will be able to score at the NHL level butwill need ways to "cover"for him defensively;whereas the scout might think BAILEY will have trouble scoring goals at the NHL level --so he could just turn into another Jay McClement checking type. The whole key with BAILEY then willbe whata team's scouts think about his "intangibles" and whether they think that unlike with Mcclemment,BAILEY's hockey sense can make up for his lackof speed and lack of a great shot..
great insight, although when I see words or names in all caps I can't help but think "tourette's"
Very accurate assessment Hawksfan50....sometimes it's players who are strong defensively with a good all around game who make the NHL. The guys with one above average or outstanding skill can be boom or bust.
I was going to ask the same question, I was also going to involve some asking about some insight on Nemisz as well. 6'4 202 and 34 goals that's about as much as I know of him.
Although I think Bailey is a safe pick, I don't think he has any real "stand out" talents, that push him far ahead of some of the other players. I mean he stands out on the ice with his offensive flare and vision, but in comparison to others he misses some of those I dunno, "blue chip" assets. Like amazing speed, or a cannon shot.
i think he's real close to hodgson and wilson but wilson has the nhl size at 6"1 215 so that puts him ahead and hodgson is a better goal scorer and and is probley the best leader in the draft so that puts him ahead. as for boedker, he's just got a ton of tools to work with, he's one of the fastest players, great, hard shot, ton of skill and nhl size at 5"11 195. i did a mock draft and picked tedenby ahead of him mainly because of skating, nothing against bailey's skateing but tedenby can fly and I couldn't pass him up. bailey should go top 15 though. also someone said bailey doesn't have a great shot, hasn't he been clocked at 90 mph
I have to agree that he's a very underrated player amongst most scouting circles though. He does a lot of the little things to set up scoring opportunities for those around him.
He would be a good pick for Nashville at 9th overall.
Honestly, I don't really think its Hall that Bailey gets points off....I actually think its the other way around. (always helps to have good linemates regardless)
Bailey seems ot have the ability to make everyone around him better including himself. He has a huge reason why Nemiz and Hall had alot of points. Granted, Hall is probably one of the most talented guys in the O and to come through Windsor in a long time. While Bailey is talked about as a safe pick....I wouldn't be shocked for him to average 60 points a year in the NHL. (20-40 as a nice second liner).
However, he's still young too so he will still grow and bulk up. I think any team who picks him will be happy.
Not having seen much of Bailey I was initially disappointed when the Islanders picked him over Hodgson. Isles were targeting the center position and playmaking/hockey sense which was definitely lacking amongst their prospects. Bailey definitely has that and must've impressed the Isles scouts especially at the end of the season.
After the their team captain passed away Bailey was elevated to the #1 line between Greg Nemisz and Taylor Hall and its no coincidence that those guy's numbers skyrocketed . Bailey himself had 23 pts in Windsor's last 9 games. Was it because he was playing with a future stud in Hall (in 2010)and a 1st rounder in Nemisz, or was it because Bailey made them better?Probably a bit of both but it really showed that Bailey can be a first line playmaker in a big way.Would look very good with Kyle Okposo.
He plays the PPQB role on the and has an average shot but his calling card is seting up his teammates -there's no question about that. Hall and Nemisz go straight to the net and Bailey either gets them the puck through traffic(which he has a great knack for) or just shoots it on net for easy tap ins.In the games that I've seen he is more of a perimeter player and doesnt get involved too much in front of the net but lets Hall/Nemisz do the dirty work.
As for a comparison between he and Hodgson I think Bailey is comparable but I think the Isles saw more of Bailey and were impressed with his late season run. He is also more of an extroverted personality compared to Hodgson . Hodgson has a much better shot and isnt afraid to get involved in front of the net and take shots to score. He's got mustard on a laser wrister that's deadly accurate.Bailey's a better skater and strictly more of a playmaker so I could see where the isles scouts liked this guy. As far as the numbers between these two guys, Hodgson had nowhere near the talent of wingers IMO that Bailey had . Bailey was also in his 3rd year in the OHL (Hodgson his 2nd)so maybe he's more NHL ready?
It sounds like the Isles want to try to bring him onto the team this year so he may be lining up next to Okposo this year.Of course he needs to fill out a bit more and I would rather see him dominate the OHL this year before seeing him on the Island.
After the their team captain passed away Bailey was elevated to the #1 line between Greg Nemisz and Taylor Hall and its no coincidence that those guy's numbers skyrocketed . Bailey himself had 23 pts in Windsor's last 9 games. Was it because he was playing with a future stud in Hall (in 2010)and a 1st rounder in Nemisz, or was it because Bailey made them better?Probably a bit of both but it really showed that Bailey can be a first line playmaker in a big way.Would look very good with Kyle Okposo.
He plays the PPQB role on the and has an average shot but his calling card is seting up his teammates -there's no question about that. Hall and Nemisz go straight to the net and Bailey either gets them the puck through traffic(which he has a great knack for) or just shoots it on net for easy tap ins.In the games that I've seen he is more of a perimeter player and doesnt get involved too much in front of the net but lets Hall/Nemisz do the dirty work.
As for a comparison between he and Hodgson I think Bailey is comparable but I think the Isles saw more of Bailey and were impressed with his late season run. He is also more of an extroverted personality compared to Hodgson . Hodgson has a much better shot and isnt afraid to get involved in front of the net and take shots to score. He's got mustard on a laser wrister that's deadly accurate.Bailey's a better skater and strictly more of a playmaker so I could see where the isles scouts liked this guy. As far as the numbers between these two guys, Hodgson had nowhere near the talent of wingers IMO that Bailey had . Bailey was also in his 3rd year in the OHL (Hodgson his 2nd)so maybe he's more NHL ready?
It sounds like the Isles want to try to bring him onto the team this year so he may be lining up next to Okposo this year.Of course he needs to fill out a bit more and I would rather see him dominate the OHL this year before seeing him on the Island.
From the calgarypuck board:
"Until Mickey Renaud died, Nemisz played on a line with him and not Bailey (although the got some PP time together).
I took the time to check out Nemisz every goal and assist this season (until Renauds death in February) and for the 29 goals he scored during this time Bailey assisted in 10. And on Nemisz 26 assists, Bailey also registered a point in 8 of them. So from the 55 points he scored, Bailey was only involved in 18. I find it funny to claim that Bailey was carrying Nemisz."
I asked David Kolomatis (former teammate, current opponent) about him and he had some pretty good things to say about him.
I think what was said before is accurate. He's quietly effective. Considering the other factors the Isles should consider, Filatov may have been a better pick.
"Until Mickey Renaud died, Nemisz played on a line with him and not Bailey (although the got some PP time together).
I took the time to check out Nemisz every goal and assist this season (until Renauds death in February) and for the 29 goals he scored during this time Bailey assisted in 10. And on Nemisz 26 assists, Bailey also registered a point in 8 of them. So from the 55 points he scored, Bailey was only involved in 18. I find it funny to claim that Bailey was carrying Nemisz."
I'm aware of the fact that Nemisz and Bailey werent on the same line for most of the season. I never claimed that it was Bailey that was the reason for that line scoring like crazy. My question was aimed at the last 9-10 games of the season when Bailey took off for 23 pts.Nemisz scored 8 goals in the last 10 games of the season with Bailey and Hall-certainly a higher rate than he was scoring at previously without Bailey. Was it a result of playing with Nemisz and Hall or did they just take off and have a run based on pure emotion after Renaud passed away.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vakar Lajos
I asked David Kolomatis (former teammate, current opponent) about him and he had some pretty good things to say about him.
I think what was said before is accurate. He's quietly effective. Considering the other factors the Isles should consider, Filatov may have been a better pick.
I thought Bailey was a good pick. He just has to bulk up significantly.
I think the NY management fell in love with Bailey's personality...very humble and more well-spoken than Hodgson. But I still love Hodgson...seems very shy though.
I saw Bailey play in the Sarnia/Windsor series, he was easily the 3rd best player in the series (Behind Stamkos and Taylor Hall) by the end of the series i was pretty convinced Bailey was a top 10 prospect and stuck by it, the Islanders proved me right on that one and this guy does everything, go into the corners, hit, shoot, pass, skate, plays offense, plays defence, he really is a complete player, hes not the best at any of those but he combines to be a complete player, and a possible captain at that... all in all i like Hodgson more but Bailey is very close to him IMO, unfortunately for Windsor guys like Snetsinger was suspended, and Nemisz their other start never showed up for the series and their overager reid and goaltender Kovar never showed up for that series, while players like Perugini, DiDiomete, DiBenedetto, and Katic all upped their game int hat series, Hall and Bailey played amazing hockey in that series, just didnt have the supporting cast behind them.
just joking , i see this guy as a 50-60 point two way player maybe like a Chris Drury or Daymond Langkow.
..sometimes it's players who are strong defensively with a good all around game who make the NHL. The guys with one above average or outstanding skill can be boom or bust.
