Things to be excited about/Things that should help us
1) Fewer games against our division next year! (6 against each team)
2) Holy crap our core is young and tight
3) Gagner could become something VERY special next year.
4) With Horc, we should have a LEGIT TOP SIX!!!
5) Calgary is going to have some serious signing issues this summer.
1] Massive, massive reason to be optimistic. We've actually got a very solid record against every other division (ironically, our second worst is against the South East). Only problem with this logic: The Oilers like to do exactly the opposite of what's expected of them. Watch them start kicking the crap out Calgary, Vancouver, Colorado and Minnesota next season.
2] "Young and tight". So many jokes, so little time.
3] I think he could do something ridiculous next year. 80+ points, lead the team, that type of thing. We'll see.
4] We don't have one right now? Granted, Stoll sucks, but 3.4 goals/game since late February. I don't know what more I'd want from a top-6.
5] Not really. They've lost Yelle and Huselius are likely gone. Non-factors considering their play as of late. Langkow and Conroy will probably re-up. Don't see how they could add anything meaningful with their restrictions, but they should essentially be the same team.
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Things to be worried about:
1) Sophomore slumps!!! They could hit practically half our team
2) Can Garon fully establish himself as a #1? If not.... we're in trouble.
3) What to do with Smid or Greene (or Grebs) when Souray comes back?
4) How are we going to control our defensive breakdowns? Personnel, experience, or system change?
5) Where is Torres going to go? Is Stoll safe?
6) Are our RFA's going to get bloated contracts?
1] Myth. Sophmore slumps aren't the rule, it's the exception - and it really only happens to goal scorers. Cogliano maybe, everyone else... eh.
2] Garon has had "starters" numbers since he broke in, on bad teams no less. This question should be: can he play out of his head like he did this year, and if he doesn't, can we steal as many games?
3] Grebeshkov has sealed his position. Greene too. Smid, welcome to the pressbox. Or another team. It all depends.
4] We've opened things up to a ridiculous level lately. That will change next year. Also, better goaltending and guys like Horcoff and Moreau coming back won't hurt. Or Souray for that matter.
5] Third line. No.
6] The only contract I'm concerned about is Pitkanen's, and I wouldn't be too sad to see him gone. If only we could count on Souray's health.
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Things we can't be sure about:
1) What kind of management changes is Katz going to make?
2) Will Katz be able to lure someone like Hossa? Do we even want that?
3) Will MacT be the right man for the job next year? Opinions on him have completely reversed in two months. Sometimes I wonder if he is getting too much credit for the kids being sweet.
1] Nothing major. Good friends with MacT and Kevin Lowe, they've gotten surprising results this year, ect, ect.
2] No. No.
3] Yes. Offensive skill is something we have at every skating position, and MacTavish is the best coach I can possibly think of to impart reliability without bogging the offense down with a trap system. I don't like his loyalty, it makes him make bad decisions, but he's the right man for the job.
1] Massive, massive reason to be optimistic. We've actually got a very solid record against every other division (ironically, our second worst is against the South East). Only problem with this logic: The Oilers like to do exactly the opposite of what's expected of them. Watch them start kicking the crap out Calgary, Vancouver, Colorado and Minnesota next season.
True that... We could probably put that 1st point in both the looking forward and worrying sections...
Two things I would do. Bring in a veteran top 6 forward for a little experience and depth. Preferably a shoot first forward capable of 25 goals a year. Andrew Brunette would be my first choice, but guys like Ryder, Malone, Satan, Straka would be good on short term low money deals as well. I also wouldn't mind signing a 4/5 defensemen to shore up our blueline. Some notables are Kalinin, Aaron Ward, Ron Hainsey, Norstrom) However, we can't spend more than 2.5 on this defensemen. Then, move Stoll, Torres, and Smid/Greene for a decent young forward.
Two things I would do. Bring in a veteran top 6 forward for a little experience and depth. Preferably a shoot first forward capable of 25 goals a year. Andrew Brunette would be my first choice, but guys like Ryder, Malone, Satan, Straka would be good on short term low money deals as well. I also wouldn't mind signing a 4/5 defensemen to shore up our blueline. Some notables are Kalinin, Aaron Ward, Ron Hainsey, Norstrom) However, we can't spend more than 2.5 on this defensemen. Then, move Stoll, Torres, and Smid/Greene for a decent young forward.
Problem inherent: Don't **** with chemistry. 'Cause who in the top-six moves? Nilsson? +6, some of the best EVS numbers on the team, good chemistry with Cogliano. Penner? 23 goals leads the team. Works better with Horcoff and Hemsky then Smyth, Lupul, Sykora, and Torres did. No guarantee you'd upgrade the line, and why would you try if it works as an outscoring top-unit.
A guy like Ryan Malone might not be bad, especially if we move Torres. He can play a third-line role with some effect and without being slighted, and act as a contingency plan for if one of the kids drops off or we need to switch things around. I would just rather trust in what we've got.
For the record, cutting the fat and replacing Stoll (with a cheaper third line centre who's sole mission is to be a third-line centre) would be my only desire this offseason. Yelle, maybe?
Minnesota could be better but Demitra will likely leave I think, Calgary will likely be the same team, Colorado has young talent and an older Sakic who just keeps playing at a high level, Vancouver will be the real wild card depends on what Nonis does in the off-season if he actually TRIES to improve their offense for once.
What's intriguing this off-season is that we're not really wondering "who will we get" but rather who will go... There's all kinds of log jams and someone(s) will have to go... I bet Torres is wondering already where he'll play next season, not much room left for him apparently, but at the same time we still kind of would like to keep him... Though calls all around for Lowe...
If there'd be any addition, what I'd like to see, and I know some people won't like it, but hey we have a rich owner now, so let's go for Jagr in a 6/4.5/2.5/1.5/1/1 6-year deal to bring the cap hit down to 2.75, he probably won't be playing that many years... Not a great season this year but he's a year away from a 1st all star team appearance and in leading scorers... for a 2.75 cap hit, low risk and high reward and if he's getting too old he can retire and go play for Omsk after 2 or 3 years if he wants to make more money there... He adds experience, points, can score goals, is anything but small, and he can play with Hemsky on the odd LW shift and RW with Gagner and Nilsson/Cogs making our top 6 harder to check and MacT can blend all he likes... I'm sure Hemsky and Gagner, and possibly Pitkanen would rack up points with him on the team...
And I don't think we need a shutdown D, Grebs will do fine in that role next year IMO... A lot of the D breakdown this year is inexperience and players not yet used to playing together all that much... We can see later in the season if a shutdown D is needed get one at the trade deadline...
I'd like to see the Oiler re-sign Pitkanen, Gilbert and Grebeshkov and bring Hedja back. This probably makes Smid expendable. The D would shake out like this:
In goal, try and trade Roli if you can but no harm if he comes back. With Katz coming in, they should be able to survive a slightly inflated budget for the 08/09 season.
Garon
Roli
Torres and Smid should be able to get us a couple of 2nd rounders? Maybe a late first rounder combined? Keep the pipeline flowing...
Overall not very exciting but it is what I would do if I ran the Oilers. One day....
Smid is very young comparing to others could be very stupid to trade him now for even late first rounder. He can be a part of the package along Stoll to land us Olli Jokinen
Problem inherent: Don't **** with chemistry. 'Cause who in the top-six moves? Nilsson? +6, some of the best EVS numbers on the team, good chemistry with Cogliano. Penner? 23 goals leads the team. Works better with Horcoff and Hemsky then Smyth, Lupul, Sykora, and Torres did. No guarantee you'd upgrade the line, and why would you try if it works as an outscoring top-unit.
A guy like Ryan Malone might not be bad, especially if we move Torres. He can play a third-line role with some effect and without being slighted, and act as a contingency plan for if one of the kids drops off or we need to switch things around. I would just rather trust in what we've got.
For the record, cutting the fat and replacing Stoll (with a cheaper third line centre who's sole mission is to be a third-line centre) would be my only desire this offseason. Yelle, maybe?
So are you running under the assumption that Moreau is going to be hurt? If we keep Torres and Moreau, they end of fighting for the 3rd line LW position if both are healthy. Or would you plan on moving one of them to the fourth line if needed?
Smid is very young comparing to others could be very stupid to trade him now for even late first rounder. He can be a part of the package along Stoll to land us Olli Jokinen
Jokinen? You have to figure that FLA is going to ask for the moon, especially after the Loungo trade. Smid and Stoll plus ANA's first is not enough to get you Jokinen. They'll ask for roster players - guys like Hemsky, Gagner, Cogliano. If they decide to trade him there will be several teams lining up to get him. The reason I see Smid expendable is that I'm not sure he's going to be better than Grebs or Gilbert. When you look at the blueline propects the have in the minors, it makes it easier to part with him. I also see a package of Torres and Smid getting us a better draft pick, not top 10 mind you.
I don't see why. They are both independent of eachother. TOPPEP is for this year, and this thread is for those of us ALSO interested in discussing next season.
So are you running under the assumption that Moreau is going to be hurt? If we keep Torres and Moreau, they end of fighting for the 3rd line LW position if both are healthy. Or would you plan on moving one of them to the fourth line if needed?
Our fourth line seems pretty set. They'll play Moreau over Torres on the third line.
What's intriguing this off-season is that we're not really wondering "who will we get" but rather who will go... There's all kinds of log jams and someone(s) will have to go...
I agree. Looking at our roster, IMO we have 14 NHL caliber forwards (this doesn't include Schremp), 7 NHL defencemen (not including Chorney/Petry/Roy/Rourke) and 2 NHL goaltenders with JDD knocking on the door. We should really all be hoping for one of those quantity for quality deals.
Regarding our D corps ... with Souray back let Smid and Greene go to war at training camp for that last spot. Never a bad thing to have 7 solid NHL D.
I would use the same logic here for our forwards. Lowe should try landing star if the price is right, if not make a lateral move shipping out Torres for a sniper.
Torres and Smid should be able to get us a couple of 2nd rounders? Maybe a late first rounder combined? Keep the pipeline flowing...
Stop hating on Smid and just accept the growing pains, he's only 22. I think in a couple of years Smid could turn out to be the shutdown dman, sort of like Volchenkov. Only way I deal him is if he part of a package for a star not a second round draft pick.
I agree getting rid of Smid is a bad idea. We spent 2 seasons developing him and people want to see him shipped off at 22 years of age because he isnt a Norris trophy winner yet
I bet the Islanders or Kings would love to have Grebeshkov right about now but they gave up on him at around the same age too
I'm a bit surprised at how off most of you guys are in your contract expectations.
Gilbert just had a better rookie season than Paul Coffey.. he has no previous affiliation to the city before this season. Do you think his agent is going to accept a long/cheap contract? I hope so. But I doubt 2.5 Mil gets it done for an acceptable length of time. We need to lock him up into the future so we don't get bitten later on. There are going to be a lot of hard decisions to make. Glencross shouldn't get 1.5 yet. I assume he will get a little over 1.2 for a couple of years.
But everything depends on what Lowe wants to do. What is his vision for this team? He has an insanely huge number of questions to answer and contracts to deal out.
