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2003 first rounders reviewed

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Old
02-07-2004, 09:46 AM
  #1
Bignasti
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2003 first rounders reviewed

http://www.forecaster.ca/aolcanada/h...s.cgi?notebook

As early as it is developmentally for these guys, including Pouliot, I'd prefer several of the guys taken later on (or Parise of course too -damn we really need someone with superstar potential!). I'd love Anthony Stewart too.

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02-07-2004, 10:52 AM
  #2
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what the hell?? pouliot is the only guy to not get a development grade, what gives?

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02-07-2004, 10:55 AM
  #3
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oh i would also like to throw my hat in the "why the *&%# did we not pick parise?!?!?".... and dont give me that crap about us already having enough smallish centres, if the guy can be an offensive dynamo, i dont care if hes 3 foot 7 and weighs 67 pounds - if he can score, he can score - end of discussion

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02-07-2004, 10:59 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog
oh i would also like to throw my hat in the "why the *&%# did we not pick parise?!?!?".... and dont give me that crap about us already having enough smallish centres, if the guy can be an offensive dynamo, i dont care if hes 3 foot 7 and weighs 67 pounds - if he can score, he can score - end of discussion
In one of the interviews Guy did, I believe Chris mentioned that the scouting staff had Pouliot and Parise neck and neck. What concerened them was Parise's conditioning by the end of the year. Parise, at the end of his season, was visibly fatigued after only 30-odd games. That's basically why the Oilers decided to trade down and select Pouliot instead while adding the Jacques pick.

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02-07-2004, 11:08 AM
  #5
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It's weird. Isn't this the same publication we blasted some time ago for their top prospect list? ie/ having Fleischmann there but not Brodziak.. Ryan Suter at like 30 something?

I understand if the reason Pouliot didn't earn a grade due to his injuries this season... But then how can they possibly fathom giving Milan Michalek a grade? He was injured most of the season.

In Ryan Suter's evaluation, they don't offer any real insight and state that the only knock on their pick was "NOT DRAFTING PARISE". I mean... what? Ludicrous reasoning to say the least.

Another weird one. By all accounts, Steve Bernier has struggled mightily in the Q this year. Whether that be due to circumstances, lack of motivation, or whatever... it is a concern. And yet, for all his struggles, he earns a B-...

Just some weird things I noticed.

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02-07-2004, 11:19 AM
  #6
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Originally Posted by momentai
In Ryan Suter's evaluation, they don't offer any real insight and state that the only knock on their pick was "NOT DRAFTING PARISE". I mean... what? Ludicrous reasoning to say the least.

What would the hype surrounding Parise be if he hadn't been picked by the Devils? The way people talk about him you'd think he was the runaway first overall pick, and it seems to be because of the Devils' previous success at drafting later in the first round. I think this kid is being played up a lot more than he actually warrants. Time will tell, I guess.

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02-07-2004, 12:52 PM
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I don't want to get into the Parise debate again. I am an Oiler fan. My team picked Pouliot and I support my team. I like Parise, but I am done bashing the team for the pick they didn't make.

The team said he was smaller. The team said that late in the season that he started looking tired and sucking wind. For now, they get the benefit of the doubt.

(Although seeing Parise turn out to be a dandy wouldn't surprise me at all.)

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02-07-2004, 12:58 PM
  #8
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I didn't like the Pouliot pick when it was made but it really had nothing to do with Parise per se.

There were many questions about Pouliot from a few of the scouts, but it is too early to start saying Parise will be better than Poliout or that the Oilers made a bad pick.

Time will answer that question.

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02-07-2004, 01:05 PM
  #9
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Originally Posted by Whitenoise
What would the hype surrounding Parise be if he hadn't been picked by the Devils? The way people talk about him you'd think he was the runaway first overall pick, and it seems to be because of the Devils' previous success at drafting later in the first round. I think this kid is being played up a lot more than he actually warrants. Time will tell, I guess.
That wasn't really my beef. It's the fact that their "progess evaluation" included a statement saying Nashville should have picked Parise. That is wholly irrelevant to say the least. It doesn't add to any report on Suter... doesn't really provide any real insight into his play and adds a meaningless blurb about the selection of Parise. Makes it seem as if they have no idea what they are trying to accomplish with this article.

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02-07-2004, 01:56 PM
  #10
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My two cents (again) on this subject. I share similar opinions with Slats in that imo the Oil should have taken Parise. However they did not. I reconciled myself to this fact and tried to warm up to Pouliot's potential. Unfortunately, I must say my first time seeing him throughout the Canadian Junior Camp in Calgary and then his initial pro exhibition game left me very disappointed. Compounding my personal observations is reading about Pouliot's injury problems. He has been injured and missed many games in all three years of junior hockey. These injuries have included back and concussion.

Most recently, the Hockey New's Major Junior Report (Jan. 20 issue) has a small sidebar inthe Q section titled We Miss You. How important is Sidney Crosby to the Rimouski Oceanic? During his three-week stint with the Canadian national junior team, the Oceanic won just one game. They went 1-4-2-2 while the 16 year old centre was away.

Crosby remained eight points ahead of teammate Dany Roussin in the league scoring race when he returned. (I'm not sure if Pouliot was hurt - again - during this time but he now has a quality team and talent around him. Unlike last year when his competitiveness was cited endlessly for playing on such a poor team.)

I too hope that Pouliot becomes the great player this Oiler scouting staff praised and chose over many highly regarded prospects in last year's uber-draft. However there are alot of warning signs around which taper my buy-in to the potential impact this kid might have for us.

I love to be proven wrong. Here's hoping Pouliot develops into the 'Jean Ratelle-like' talent which Oiler birddogs have projected.

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02-07-2004, 03:10 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines
I too hope that Pouliot becomes the great player this Oiler scouting staff praised and chose over many highly regarded prospects in last year's uber-draft. However there are alot of warning signs around which taper my buy-in to the potential impact this kid might have for us.
I am saving my "I told you so." for Parise's first All star selection.

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02-07-2004, 03:41 PM
  #12
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The same bunch who exercised the Guerin option in order to move up and pick Hemsky made the call with regard to Pouliot/Parise.

The same bunch who dealt Hecht to get two early 2nd's and pick up Deslauriers and Stoll made the call with regard to Pouliot/Parise.

They may well have blown it big time by passing on Parise, but imo there's no clear evidence either way so far. Parise is a terrific player, Pouliot's had an injury but has delivered a pretty strong season in 03-04 (better ppg than last season).

I have to say, though, that I'm heartened that we have a debate about the Oilers screwing up in the first round every third season or so, as opposed to the 80s and 90s when you could bet on a dud.

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02-07-2004, 04:43 PM
  #13
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For the most part, I really like the draft work done by Oiler scouts. Lowe's trades did indeed leverage the position to pick up three quality players. I loved all of these selections especially Stoll who I had hoped they would draft as an 18 yr. old. They have also built a solid stable of prospects.

Being a Devil's Advocate however, this bunch also chose to let Lombardi reenter the draft. He looks dynamite in Calgary (21 points +6 and Oiler speeds and skill at the centre position). This group passed on a potential elite sniper centreman in Patrick O'Sullivan in the second round. Instead they chose to reach for two big wingers who project likely as depth players.

Given the Oilers first round position last year, I would have liked to see them hold for either Parise or Ryan Getzlaf (Carter was my first hope in this position or Dion Phaneuf if they could have moved up). The move down to select Pouliot would have been more palatable for me if they had gambled the additional second on the troubled Patrick O'Sullivan versus reaching for McDonald and J-F Jaques.

But hey, that's why this bunch gets paid and I can be sit back and second guess from the vantage of my living room. No scouting team is infallible and they all live by the adage 'win some and lose some.'

Edit: I also posted suggesting the Oil consider Sean Belle at their drafting position.


Last edited by Behind Enemy Lines: 02-07-2004 at 05:07 PM.
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Old
02-07-2004, 05:19 PM
  #14
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I think O'Sullivan was still on the board when they took McDonald, but gone when they took Jacques.

imo we fans read HF or McKeen's or some such and then read up on these guys and make our picks. Which is fun, no doubt, but we didnt see Colin McDonald and can't really rate him against O'Sullivan or anyone in that group (Tunik is a guy whose bio looked go to me).

Bottom line, though, is we're still waiting to see Riesen, Henrich, Rita and Mikhnov while Hemsky and Stoll are already in the show.

The other thing that never gets mentioned is the relative difference between Pouliot and Parise in terms of pt etc. How many minutes does each player get? Does Parise have the best wingers on the team? How about Pouliot? Does Crosby get most of the pp time? I bet he does.

I remember watching Hemsky play for Hull a few times when he was there, and it seemed like he was on the ice the entire time.

Just my opinion, but it's very easy to get a terribly skewed view of what these kids are accomplishing during a season without this information.

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02-07-2004, 05:43 PM
  #15
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Lowtide, I agree with your comments about fan opinion and thus try to recognize this limitation by saying as such ... from my living room. Scouting is for the most part a tireless, glamourless job. However they do see the prospects firsthand and project based on their observations. We as fans can't so we based our opinions on limited first hand viewing and the growing mountains of trade publications and internet materials and statistics available. Sifting through these resources we can form generalizations based upon many professional and fan opinions. However this is for us a pasttime versus the pressure of a job and responsibility to produce results.

You are right about O-Sullivan. My point is I would have liked to add the pick to gamble on O'Sullivan which would have cost us either McDonald or Jacques.

I hope every Oiler draft pick makes the NHL. However the statistics and reality don't bare this out. This management team like the last one will have successes and failures. I just hope those successes will be closer to Hemsky's than fringe players like Jussi Markkanen.

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02-07-2004, 06:04 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slats432
The team said he was smaller. The team said that late in the season that he started looking tired and sucking wind. For now, they get the benefit of the doubt.
I agree with you slats432. There's reasoning behind their pick.

With ANY player its an open question as to how well their success in other levels transitions to the NHL.

But with smaller players, IMO its always a more serious question.

Of course, we've already discussed this in the context of Hudler. He's not cut from exactly the same cloth, but Hudler did well in the preseason and fizzled during the regular. He's still only 20 though, so there's plenty of time, but is this an indication of how the NHL changes the picture? One perhaps also wonders if Chistov might fall into this category of question mark.

Bigger players, even if they never find their scoring touch in the NHL level, have better chances to make a living in other ways. Exhibit A: Ethan Moreau. Hey, but don't take my opinion as gospel. It seems like every single year 30 professional scouting teams collectively decide not to pick up some small but highly skilled guy and he gets scooped up in later rounds. Often it seems like theres scores of these. There is no option but to assume that the teams feel they have good reason to maintain a drafting bias against smaller players. Maybe the pros at the highest level are all wrong, and maybe the rule doesn't apply to Parise, but its definitely food for thought.

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02-07-2004, 06:32 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines
You are right about O-Sullivan. My point is I would have liked to add the pick to gamble on O'Sullivan which would have cost us either McDonald or Jacques.
I was hoping they'd take O'Sullivan in the FIRST round (honest). But I also think that the Prendergast group has been buying some real credibility since 2001, and that's worth something too.

Agree completely with the rest of your post.

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02-07-2004, 07:43 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by oilswell
I agree with you slats432. There's reasoning behind their pick.

With ANY player its an open question as to how well their success in other levels transitions to the NHL.

But with smaller players, IMO its always a more serious question.

Of course, we've already discussed this in the context of Hudler. He's not cut from exactly the same cloth, but Hudler did well in the preseason and fizzled during the regular. He's still only 20 though, so there's plenty of time, but is this an indication of how the NHL changes the picture? One perhaps also wonders if Chistov might fall into this category of question mark.

Bigger players, even if they never find their scoring touch in the NHL level, have better chances to make a living in other ways. Exhibit A: Ethan Moreau. Hey, but don't take my opinion as gospel. It seems like every single year 30 professional scouting teams collectively decide not to pick up some small but highly skilled guy and he gets scooped up in later rounds. Often it seems like theres scores of these. There is no option but to assume that the teams feel they have good reason to maintain a drafting bias against smaller players. Maybe the pros at the highest level are all wrong, and maybe the rule doesn't apply to Parise, but its definitely food for thought.
Interesting to look at team bias about drafting smaller players. I did a very quick scan and note the following smaller players until 5'11" and drafted later:

Detroit:
Henrik Zetterberg 210th overall
Pavel Datsyuk 171st overall
Jiri Hudler 58th overall

Ottawa Senators:
Daniel Alfredsson 133rd overall
Todd White Free Agent
Pavol Demitra (Drafted late by Ottawa)

New Jersey:
Brian Rafalski Free Agent
John Madden Free Agent
Brian Gionta 82nd overall
Scott Gomez (okay, first rounder)

Tampa Bay:
Martin St. Louis Free Agent
Dan Boyle Trade: Florida (don't know his original draft ranking)

This is just a cursory overview but I have intentionally scanned top teams like the Devils, Senators, and Detroit along with the emerging playoff team, T.Bay. Not included is Mark Recci in Philadelphia, originally a Penguin third rounder or later. Not included are elite smallish players like Joe Sakic and Steve Yzerman both 5'11'' stud first rounders.

The small player myth should be looked at. It is evident that top teams identified above have benefitted from the blinders of team need for bigger, stronger. Couldn't the Oilers and other fringe playoff teams use a Pavel Datsyuk, Martin St. Louis, or Brian Rafalski???

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02-07-2004, 08:47 PM
  #19
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my whole gripe with the parise situation is that i wish the oilers would swing for the fences a little bit more..... (of course this is yet another area of the organization where macT and lowe have influence, and thusly we will have to suffer through many "hard workers" and "gritty players" and other such macT clone-ish players)..... it just seems that they arent willing to take a chance on a player who might be a big success (though mikhnov is an exception to this rule) ..... as ive said a million times before on this board - the oilers cant afford to buy a superstar, they need to draft them ..... and for all of you that will say "ill take 20 reasoners on my team anyday..... etc etc", i will point out that all the reasoners in the world dont buy you 1 single kovolchuk

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02-07-2004, 09:48 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog
my whole gripe with the parise situation is that i wish the oilers would swing for the fences a little bit more..... (of course this is yet another area of the organization where macT and lowe have influence, and thusly we will have to suffer through many "hard workers" and "gritty players" and other such macT clone-ish players)..... it just seems that they arent willing to take a chance on a player who might be a big success (though mikhnov is an exception to this rule) ..... as ive said a million times before on this board - the oilers cant afford to buy a superstar, they need to draft them ..... and for all of you that will say "ill take 20 reasoners on my team anyday..... etc etc", i will point out that all the reasoners in the world dont buy you 1 single kovolchuk
So what would you characterize the pick of Hemsky and Niinimaki? Were they MacT clones?

Wouldn't you consider these attempts at drafting a star using a middle round pick?

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02-07-2004, 10:05 PM
  #21
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One small guy that I'd be really interested in picking up in this year's draft is Hensick. I've heard some raving reviews about him and he sounds like he could be a dynamite player.. the latest rankings I've seen have showed him slip quite a bit, I'm not even sure if he's amongst the top 5 collegiate players any more. With the number of picks the Oilers have early in the draft, I'd definitely use a second rounder (possibly the pick we'll get from the Leetch deal - if he slips that far) on him.

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02-07-2004, 10:16 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerebral
One small guy that I'd be really interested in picking up in this year's draft is Hensick. I've heard some raving reviews about him...
One from FM I presume as well as other scouting reports..

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02-07-2004, 11:46 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by momentai
One from FM I presume as well as other scouting reports..
Hehe shush.. I've actually being hearing good things from a lot of people about him, a lot of comparisons to Comrie.. alas Funkymoses was my main source though heh

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02-08-2004, 02:31 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Behind Enemy Lines
Interesting to look at team bias about drafting smaller players. I did a very quick scan and note the following smaller players until 5'11" and drafted later:
Edmonton: Comrie, Salmelainen, Helminen, ...

I wouldn't be surprised if every team drafted smaller guys. Perhaps the more important question is: "which teams draft smaller guys that make it?"

Quote:
The small player myth should be looked at. It is evident that top teams identified above have benefitted from the blinders of team need for bigger, stronger. Couldn't the Oilers and other fringe playoff teams use a Pavel Datsyuk, Martin St. Louis, or Brian Rafalski???
Although it might be argued that smart teams picked up guys like Datsyuk and Alfredsson the fact is they picked them up after picking winners like (in the case of Detroit) Calle Steen (6'), Tomek Valtonen (6'1") and Ryan Barnes (6'2"). Yeah, maybe it makes them smarter than the guys who didn't pick them up at all, but you have to think size is one of the reasons they passed them up several times to begin with. This still argues that small guys are biased against: they just drop until the risk of NOT taking the small guy outweighs the risk of taking them.

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02-08-2004, 02:39 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12
So what would you characterize the pick of Hemsky and Niinimaki? Were they MacT clones?

Wouldn't you consider these attempts at drafting a star using a middle round pick?
niinimaki still has yet to do anything, though injuries have played a large role in that...... and as i think we are all aware of, hemsky will probably be a good 60-70 point man in the NHL in a couple years, but his top end is somewhat limited (prolly around the 75 point mark at best)...... this year would be a good year to "swing for the fences", because we could try and trade our 2 1st rounders for a higher pick (which is of course something i would like to see them try)

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