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Old
05-27-2008, 06:00 PM
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Ducks 2007-08 rookie review

The Anaheim Ducks did not give much opportunity to any first-year players over the course of 2007-08.


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05-28-2008, 05:14 PM
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Is less rookies a bad thing or a good thing in your opinion?

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05-28-2008, 06:37 PM
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Great read Kevin. How NHL ready do you think Ebbett is? In the article you mention he is a potential 2nd line center, however judging from the 3 games he played with the Ducks when Marchant was injured he seems to need a little more time in the minors.

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05-28-2008, 06:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MOENing View Post
Is less rookies a bad thing or a good thing in your opinion?
IMO: If you want to win this year, it's a good thing. If you want to win 2-3 years down the road, bad.



Comments about the piece.

I'm surprised Forbes didn't mention the promising stint Carter had in Pahlsson's place. And his faceoff prowess. Because that was much more impressive and promising to me than his 2 whole good offensive games in the 2nd line spot.

And openings expected to open on the checking line? You mean the 4th line, and not THE checking line right? Because I'm not expecting Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer to be broken up before 09-10.

Hiller certainly did not quickly erase my misgivings. He looked downright shaky for the first month and a half or so. It wasn't until like late December (hmmm.... around the time Niedermayer came back) that he looked good. But he sure changed my mind.

Forbes sounds pretty positive about Ebbett. Maybe that's a good sign. I didn't see much that caught my eye in his like 3 games here. Some decent effort and speed, that's about it.

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05-28-2008, 06:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
IMO: If you want to win this year, it's a good thing. If you want to win 2-3 years down the road, bad.



Comments about the piece.

I'm surprised Forbes didn't mention the promising stint Carter had in Pahlsson's place. And his faceoff prowess. Because that was much more impressive and promising to me than his 2 whole good offensive games in the 2nd line spot.

And openings expected to open on the checking line? You mean the 4th line, and not THE checking line right? Because I'm not expecting Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer to be broken up before 09-10.

Hiller certainly did not quickly erase my misgivings. He looked downright shaky for the first month and a half or so. It wasn't until like late December (hmmm.... around the time Niedermayer came back) that he looked good. But he sure changed my mind.

Forbes sounds pretty positive about Ebbett. Maybe that's a good sign. I didn't see much that caught my eye in his like 3 games here. Some decent effort and speed, that's about it.
I read somewhere hiller may not be with us next year.

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05-28-2008, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
And openings expected to open on the checking line? You mean the 4th line, and not THE checking line right? Because I'm not expecting Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer to be broken up before 09-10.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Moen was traded this summer. Carter can do his job and almost at half the price. If Drew Miller comes into camp stronger I can se him displacing Robbie by season's end. In my opinion Sammy is the only whose job is safe.

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05-28-2008, 10:10 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if Moen was traded this summer. Carter can do his job and almost at half the price. If Drew Miller comes into camp stronger I can se him displacing Robbie by season's end. In my opinion Sammy is the only whose job is safe.
Half the price? You mean 300k cheaper, or 2/3 the price? Or do I have the numbers wrong? Downgrading from Moen doesn't save enough to be worth losing his physicality IMO. And Rob's job is safe because of his brother and because he's an A.

Sami's the one that I think is most likely to be moved, because he's probably in for a huge pay raise as one of the premier checking centers in the game. Although he does seem pretty happy here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MOENing View Post
I read somewhere hiller may not be with us next year.
Are you talking about how Burke said he may receive a big $ offer from Europe? I'm not too worried about that, I think he wants to play in the NHL. Although I'm a little worried about an OS.

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05-28-2008, 10:49 PM
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Kevin Forbes
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It's hard to ignore how quickly Ebbett has made an effect in the AHL. He's proven he can score there, and at least deserves a larger NHL shot. At worst, he'll be a Ryan Shannon player, at best, he could be an Andy McDonald.

In terms of 2nd line center, if the Ducks are forced to look inside the organization to fill that hole, which remains a possibility depending on how the contracts work out, then Ebbett has as much of a chance as anyone else.I think that speaks a lot to the viable options available inside the organization, as much as it might to Ebbett's actual NHL potential.

When referring to the checking line, I was referring more to the role of being a checker/bottom six forward as opposed to The Checking Line.

Both Hiller and Carter improved in practically every game they played with the Ducks, which is cause for optimism in the future. As a reflection of that, I chose to focus on the high points of their seasons (Carter's strong play in a second line role that might have been a bit above his head and Hiller's remarkable play in the second half of the season).

In my view, Carter's an NHL player, which is reflected in the fact he wasn't sent to Portland at the end of the year as well as his new contract. I have hopes that Miller makes a progression similar to Carter's in 08-09. Ryan is on a different track, as he's destined for a larger role with the team (and is also much younger), while Ebbett is a wildcard who could fight his way into the lineup or be destined to stay in the minors. Wirtanen is still a bit away from moving up, although there's an outside chance he could be ready to step in as an adequate (and much cheaper) option in Pahlsson's spot when Pahlsson's contract expires after the 08-09 season, but unlikely.

On Miller specifically: I'll be interested to see what they decide on for a contract. He hasn't proven much at the NHL level, but I kind of get the feeling he's primed to establish himself more, a la Carter did this year. Unfortunately for Miller, you don't award contracts based on feelings. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a one-year deal, something to almost indicate "prove yourself". It would really be in the best interest of both the player and the team, provided the player feels he's capable of making the jump.


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05-29-2008, 01:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
Half the price? You mean 300k cheaper, or 2/3 the price? Or do I have the numbers wrong? Downgrading from Moen doesn't save enough to be worth losing his physicality IMO. And Rob's job is safe because of his brother and because he's an A.

Sami's the one that I think is most likely to be moved, because he's probably in for a huge pay raise as one of the premier checking centers in the game. Although he does seem pretty happy here.
Almost half. Regardless anywhere Burkie can save money he's going to need to do it. Travis might be more physical but Carter is physical enough. Moen's physicality produced a hell of a lot of penalties too so I'm totally in favor of Carter taking his place. Robbie isn't untradeable. He's Scotty's brother yes. He's an assistant captain yes. But he still will make probably three to four times as much as Miller and if Drew puts in the work he could do Robbie's job. I love both these players but the chance of either of them being with this team beyond next season is slim whereas Carter and Miller are here for a while. We need Sammy to stay among the best defensive teams in the league. He doesn't have a replacement in line yet. I don't see Carter playing quite the same role. Wirtanen might be that guy but that's at least a while season away.

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05-29-2008, 12:40 PM
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Almost half. Regardless anywhere Burkie can save money he's going to need to do it. Travis might be more physical but Carter is physical enough. Moen's physicality produced a hell of a lot of penalties too so I'm totally in favor of Carter taking his place. Robbie isn't untradeable. He's Scotty's brother yes. He's an assistant captain yes. But he still will make probably three to four times as much as Miller and if Drew puts in the work he could do Robbie's job. I love both these players but the chance of either of them being with this team beyond next season is slim whereas Carter and Miller are here for a while. We need Sammy to stay among the best defensive teams in the league. He doesn't have a replacement in line yet. I don't see Carter playing quite the same role. Wirtanen might be that guy but that's at least a while season away.
Ah. Well 2/3 is rather far away from half in my mind, but maybe it's just me. Whatever.

About Moen's physicality. With Pahlsson being injured, Moen was one of the 2 consistent physical players on the team (Kunitz). That physicality is a HUGE part of our checking line. Remember how Gaborik or Alfreddson lashed out in the Cup run? I realize that positional defense works quite well too, which is why I'm not against Miller eventually taking a spot on the line or why I do admire Lidstrom. But Anaheim's checking line is so great because it has all the dimensions. If you're replacing both Moen and Niedermayer with Miller and Carter, that's just too soft for me.

I do have to call you on the penalties thing though. Moen actually did not receive a lot of penalties. 81 minutes means 5 (actually 6, but Parros is an enforcer) players racked up more penalties than he did. Considering he's 2nd on the team in hits, that's quite a low penalty total.

I agree Moen and Niedermayer are much more "replaceable" in terms of we can fill their roles with our prospects. But who plays RW? Miller plays the left side, and Carter is a L shooting center. Have either of them lined up on the right side while here or in Portland?

But I really think that in terms of salary Pahlsson is the most likely to go. Niedermayer will probably have to take a pay cut no matter where he goes. His contract was widely seen as overpayment at the time, but compensation for getting Scotty cheaper. Moen doesn't make much money. Pahlsson is a Selke-caliber (he or Pandolfo really should have won last season) UFA after next season, and he may well end up getting more than we can afford on the market. Not that I want him to go, because he's my favorite Duck. But the Ducks may be forced to let him go.

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05-29-2008, 07:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obobo23 View Post
Ah. Well 2/3 is rather far away from half in my mind, but maybe it's just me. Whatever.

About Moen's physicality. With Pahlsson being injured, Moen was one of the 2 consistent physical players on the team (Kunitz). That physicality is a HUGE part of our checking line. Remember how Gaborik or Alfreddson lashed out in the Cup run? I realize that positional defense works quite well too, which is why I'm not against Miller eventually taking a spot on the line or why I do admire Lidstrom. But Anaheim's checking line is so great because it has all the dimensions. If you're replacing both Moen and Niedermayer with Miller and Carter, that's just too soft for me.

I do have to call you on the penalties thing though. Moen actually did not receive a lot of penalties. 81 minutes means 5 (actually 6, but Parros is an enforcer) players racked up more penalties than he did. Considering he's 2nd on the team in hits, that's quite a low penalty total.

I agree Moen and Niedermayer are much more "replaceable" in terms of we can fill their roles with our prospects. But who plays RW? Miller plays the left side, and Carter is a L shooting center. Have either of them lined up on the right side while here or in Portland?

But I really think that in terms of salary Pahlsson is the most likely to go. Niedermayer will probably have to take a pay cut no matter where he goes. His contract was widely seen as overpayment at the time, but compensation for getting Scotty cheaper. Moen doesn't make much money. Pahlsson is a Selke-caliber (he or Pandolfo really should have won last season) UFA after next season, and he may well end up getting more than we can afford on the market. Not that I want him to go, because he's my favorite Duck. But the Ducks may be forced to let him go.
Miller has played in Robbie's spot before. I'm only convinced wingers that are married to one side of the ice are offensive wingers. Robbie can play both sides as can Marchant. Miller could do fine on the right side. Hell so could Carter.

Also and this isn't an attack on you personally just every person who says Robbie is overpaid. The average salary in the NHL 1.9 million. Robbie makes 2. I can't for the life of me believe he isn't AT LEAST an average player. One would think considering the defensive assignments, penalty killer and leadership he provides that he would be considered a slightly above average players. That's just me. But in terms of saving money for a cap stressed team is different.

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05-31-2008, 01:38 AM
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Miller has played in Robbie's spot before. I'm only convinced wingers that are married to one side of the ice are offensive wingers. Robbie can play both sides as can Marchant. Miller could do fine on the right side. Hell so could Carter.

Also and this isn't an attack on you personally just every person who says Robbie is overpaid. The average salary in the NHL 1.9 million. Robbie makes 2. I can't for the life of me believe he isn't AT LEAST an average player. One would think considering the defensive assignments, penalty killer and leadership he provides that he would be considered a slightly above average players. That's just me. But in terms of saving money for a cap stressed team is different.
Where'd you come up with the 1.9 million figure? I'd expect the salary of an "average" player to be a bit less, because of the extreme salary skewing of the star players. I'm not doubting you, I'm just surprised it's that high. (Now I know jack about statistics, but the most important number should be the "median" salary, correct? That's what an "average" player should get?)

But aside from that, you're right that by now Rob's salary isn't so bad. Because of the huge salary cap inflation. But also consider that he signed the deal when there was a 39 million cap. He was hugely overpaid then.

As to if he's overpaid now, I'd like to propose that salary tends to scale more with point production than with ice time or "importance to the team." Of course there's some adjustment based on other facets of the game, but it seems to largely be based on points (rightly or wrongly). So while Rob is probably "above average" in importance to the team, his production is below average (16 points vs 23 points average according to yahoo).

The other thing I'd recommend is that you make a "salary matrix." I'd say with ~50 million cap, since that's probably going to be around our budget. Don't do the Ducks, but just fill out a 23 man roster with about what you think each player should earn. Keep in mind that star players get ~7 million (this is probably conservative), and that hardly anyone ever plays for the 475k min.

It would be REALLY hard to fit in the budget with 2 million dollar 3rd liners.

Hell, here's a matrix I made really quick, and it's 7.5 million over budget. I'm too lazy to try to cut it down to 50 million.

7 6 4
4 3 2
1.5 1.3 1
0.8 0.7 0.6
0.5 0.5
7 5
3 2
0.8 0.6
0.5
5 0.7  
57.5   

So no, 3rd liners shouldn't be earning 2 million dollars. That just doesn't fit into the salary structure. And if you are paying 3rd liners 2 million dollars, that means you won't have money for 2nd liners/pairing defensemen. Lo and behold, that's exactly our dilemma.

In short, yes Rob is overpaid IMO.

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