You're out to lunch on everything in this post, IMO.
Hmmm, and something tells me you're the type that takes TSN's word as gospel then. Just because Bob McKenzie and James Duthie have some pedo crush on Stamkos doesn't actually make him the best player since Crosby. He'll probably get 60-70 pts next year, but remember that whatever numbers he does put up, it will be due to playing 32 games in the least defensive division in hockey. But I guess only time will tell (that you are wrong).
One must consider which teams would be willing to trade their picks.
Especially when it comes to the top 5, my opinion is that the only team that would be willing to trade their top 5 pick would be Los Angeles. And/or maybe Atlanta.
Atlanta needs D now and Pitkanen could be a target but I think they'd need to sign him to an extension before giving up on a top D prospect which they will get at #3.
Atlanta needs D now and Pitkanen could be a target but I think they'd need to sign him to an extension before giving up on a top D prospect which they will get at #3.
I suspect to move up to the top-5, we'll have to give up a good player (Grebs, Gilbert, Cogliano)... and a prospect and our pick...
Something like Grebs + Schremp + #22nd for the #3.
Only if we can get into the top 7. Otherwise it's pointless. Assets giving up don't equal assets getting.
Well I'd be happen top 10 or even 11. Guys like Beach or Wilson, or Del Zotto could be pretty solid players and we do need to clear some roster space.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO
Moving Horcoff for a draft pick makes absolutely no sense. None. Zero.
When I advocate moving Horc, it is always in a package, and I usually put in a proposal where we are getting back a top 6 winger(like Zherdev, Voracek or Cammy) along with the high pick. So it isn't like I am trying to throw away next season
Horc's value has never been higher, but that also means his salary demands have never been higher. So do we really want to put 5M+ into Horc long term with guys like Gagner and Cogliano in the system?
To me, the big sticking point to moving Horc is Stoll. If the team thinks he can fully recover back into pre-concussed form, Horc is expendable and dealing him for a big return including a top pick isn't that bad of an idea, imho. Something like Horcoff + Torres + Smid + 22nd for Zherdev and the 6th or Cammy and the 2nd
With cap space left over to look at some UFAs like Redden or Hainsey if we want. Even more so if we can move Roli somewhere too.
But then I am also a proponent of going very young next year and if the baptism by fire learning experience is too much for the kids, we would likely have a great young prospect added from the 09 draft as compensation, since it has at least 2 projected elite players along with a handful of other potential stars. So what do I know?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13
You're out to lunch on everything in this post, IMO.
Except for the Schenn is better then Stamkos part, I agree with most everything else. Stamkos I see as an 80-90p guy, whereas Tavares could be a 50 goal scorer and Hedman could become the best d-man in the world
If we move into the top 5 the most liekly situation is that we are gonna be taking a d-man. Since we have a Plethora of d-men and prospects we would most likely have to give up on a prospect. Not sure if this is the right move to make at this point.
I would be all for moving up and grabbing some offensive talent such as Beach or Boychuk. But then again there are gonna be some good forwards available at our position so why bother. I guess it will come down to how comfortable management is with our prospects. Or maybe a better scenario is the Oilers keepiong and developing their prospects this year and try to use them by trading up to get Tavares next year.
With all the hype Tavares has gotten it would take a Lindros-type trade to get him.
When I advocate moving Horc, it is always in a package, and I usually put in a proposal where we are getting back a top 6 winger(like Zherdev, Voracek or Cammy) along with the high pick. So it isn't like I am trying to throw away next season
Horc's value has never been higher, but that also means his salary demands have never been higher. So do we really want to put 5M+ into Horc long term with guys like Gagner and Cogliano in the system?
To me, the big sticking point to moving Horc is Stoll. If the team thinks he can fully recover back into pre-concussed form, Horc is expendable and dealing him for a big return including a top pick isn't that bad of an idea, imho. Something like Horcoff + Torres + Smid + 22nd for Zherdev and the 6th or Cammy and the 2nd
With cap space left over to look at some UFAs like Redden or Hainsey if we want. Even more so if we can move Roli somewhere too.
But then I am also a proponent of going very young next year and if the baptism by fire learning experience is too much for the kids, we would likely have a great young prospect added from the 09 draft as compensation, since it has at least 2 projected elite players along with a handful of other potential stars. So what do I know?
And what happens when the kids have their confidence shattered because we lose every second night? What happens if they have sophomore slumps? What happens if they stop developing?
There's no guarantees, and if you want proof of that, take a look at the SCF, where some very, VERY special kids (Malkin.....) are being absolutely dismantled by an older squad.
Kids are sexy and fun and all that... but the fact of the matter is, it's the forwards in the 27-34 age and the D in the 29-36 range that win your championships. If we're constantly trading away from the guys in that age group we're constantly going to be rebuilding. That's what loser franchises do, and what we did during the 90's and before the CBA.... now we can actually afford to keep the guys that are vital to a cup winning team and we want to trade them away for lottery tickets?
And what happens when the kids have their confidence shattered because we lose every second night? What happens if they have sophomore slumps? What happens if they stop developing?
Well, I'd argue how likely that is since we played our best hockey after Horc was already out and the kids led the way, but in that unlikely situation we'd draft Tavares or Hedman and try again next season. It isn't like all our kids are going to be destroyed permanently from one bad season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO
There's no guarantees, and if you want proof of that, take a look at the SCF, where some very, VERY special kids (Malkin.....) are being absolutely dismantled by an older squad.
Are we cup contenders with Horcoff there? He'd be the guy that would break through that Lidstrom - Rafalski pairing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDO
Kids are sexy and fun and all that... but the fact of the matter is, it's the forwards in the 27-34 age and the D in the 29-36 range that win your championships. If we're constantly trading away from the guys in that age group we're constantly going to be rebuilding. That's what loser franchises do, and what we did during the 90's and before the CBA.... now we can actually afford to keep the guys that are vital to a cup winning team and we want to trade them away for lottery tickets?
Highly probable lottery tickets and a proven top 6 winger.
One of the most successful teams ever was a bunch of skilled kids that we had that won most of their cups before 30. Since the league has changed kids have had more and more impact. Why is it such a stretch to think they would continue along the path we have seen from kids all over the NHL these past few seasons.
I'll give you the D though. Experience is a huge asset with D. Which is why we are likely still a couple of seasons away, since all of Pitkanen, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, and whoever else we decide to keep need time to mature into the players they will become.
So I don't see the harm in a sink or swim type lineup where at best, our kids turn into NHL players and continue where they left off last season, and at worst we end up with either an elite player or a very very good one from the strongest draft since 79. One where a finish in the middle of the pack is very very unlikely.
Hmmm, and something tells me you're the type that takes TSN's word as gospel then. Just because Bob McKenzie and James Duthie have some pedo crush on Stamkos doesn't actually make him the best player since Crosby. He'll probably get 60-70 pts next year, but remember that whatever numbers he does put up, it will be due to playing 32 games in the least defensive division in hockey. But I guess only time will tell (that you are wrong).
Or I've seen quite a bit of Stamkos, do NOT think he's just an 80-90 point player (he should be up in the 70-80's in his rookie year, IMO). Also, it's 24 games in the South-East. New Schedule.
Tavares and Hedman are great prospects, but I have no problem putting Filatov in the same league or draft pedigree as Braydon Schenn and quite a bit of problem putting Schenn in the same league as Stamkos. I also like Boedker quite a bit and think there are 4-5 truly special defenceman in the top-15 of this draft.
As for Hedman, I like him a lot - based mostly on scouting reports and other peoples opinions, granted, but I think he could be the best defenceman to hit in along time. But I can't take any opinion that divines a prospect defenceman "the next Pronger" seriously, because it's said every year and never true.
I only move up if someone unexpected drops(ie Cherry, Esposito, Brady Quinn etc), but in reality, I wouldn't mind trading back for a few picks, say 2 2nds or something.
Easier said than done but I am a firm believer in trading up. Statistical analysis confirms drafting within the top five - 10 there is significantly higher likelihood of drafting an NHL player but also much higher probability of getting an elite player.
We've seen this work with young Gagner providing immediate impact with the Oil best drafting position in a long, long time. There are no certainties for sure (hello Jason Bonsignore) but I'd like to see the Oil bundle picks, prospects, other to increase its likelihood of getting elite talent. One can imagine this team if past trade up attempts had worked out with names like Gborek (sp); J-Bouw; and the like.
The Oil are well positioned with excess NHL bodies and prospects to look at a move up. I'd like to see it get done.
Simple question
there are a few blue chippers in the this draft and the oilers have a few guys like Petry, Chorney, Schremp, Pitkanen and a few others who other teams may find of interest(I am not aying trade those 4 for a top five pick)--should the oilers consider trying to move up into the top 5 if the price is right?
say Petry, Chorney and Schremp? or Pitkanen with some prospects?
no. We have about 2 million prospects. That's enough.
In my opinion, we don't have time to wait for another draft pick to develop to be an impact player. if we move up in the draft, it won't be a huge move.
Or I've seen quite a bit of Stamkos, do NOT think he's just an 80-90 point player (he should be up in the 70-80's in his rookie year, IMO). Also, it's 24 games in the South-East. New Schedule.
Tavares and Hedman are great prospects, but I have no problem putting Filatov in the same league or draft pedigree as Braydon Schenn and quite a bit of problem putting Schenn in the same league as Stamkos. I also like Boedker quite a bit and think there are 4-5 truly special defenceman in the top-15 of this draft.
As for Hedman, I like him a lot - based mostly on scouting reports and other peoples opinions, granted, but I think he could be the best defenceman to hit in along time. But I can't take any opinion that divines a prospect defenceman "the next Pronger" seriously, because it's said every year and never true.
And yes, I like Bob McKenzie. He's right a lot.
I've seen a lot of Stamkos as well. I watched every WJC game this year, was at the Prospects game, saw the Sarnia vs Oshawa game on Sportsnet. So unless you have some Chinese satelite that gives you every Sarnia game, I'd say we probably watched all the same games. I think he's a very good player. But I don't think he is an automatic franchise player. And I think by next year Brayden Schenn will prove that I'm not nearly as crazy as everyone thinks. That team will challenge for a WHL title and a spot in the mem cup next year. As far as 4-5 quality d-men and good forwards in Boedker, Wilson, etc. I totally agree. My argument was that the 09 TOP 5 had more dynamic than the top 5 this year.
I originally answered no, but would like to change my answer...
I'd like to see a small move up in the draft, Joe Coburne is the guy that I would like to see on the Oil and I have a feeling that he will go a bit earlier than ranked.... I could see him snagged in the mid-to-late teens.
I would like to see Lowe move up 4-7 spots, what would that cost?
I originally answered no, but would like to change my answer...
I'd like to see a small move up in the draft, Joe Coburne is the guy that I would like to see on the Oil and I have a feeling that he will go a bit earlier than ranked.... I could see him snagged in the mid-to-late teens.
I would like to see Lowe move up 4-7 spots, what would that cost?
In the last draft with this much talent (2003), Lowe traded back from 17 to 22 and received a 2nd round pick in return from New Jersey.
In the last draft with this much talent (2003), Lowe traded back from 17 to 22 and received a 2nd round pick in return from New Jersey.
I'd rather see us move back about that far, and hopefully pick up a 2nd rounder. Although, the pick we got from the Devils was the last pick in the 2nd round, so it was basically a 3rd.
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I originally answered no, but would like to change my answer...
I'd like to see a small move up in the draft, Joe Coburne is the guy that I would like to see on the Oil and I have a feeling that he will go a bit earlier than ranked.... I could see him snagged in the mid-to-late teens.
I would like to see Lowe move up 4-7 spots, what would that cost?
I think the oilers could do much worse than Cobourne but I would much rather see Eberle. Joe is much more of a project imo.
After listening to the latest missives from Mr. Lowe, I'd say it'll be exceedingly unlikely that they trade up. It looks much more likely that they're going to jettison some bodies and load up on 2nd rounders, perhaps even another 1st rounder in the 20-30 range.
IMO we're likely to see a recurrence of the '02 draft, when a top 6 forward (Hecht) was traded for a couple of high 2nd rounders (Stoll and JDD).
i think the oilers should move down in the draft and pick up another pick or 2 after the first 15 its realy hard to tell the next 30-50 players apart. id draft Jyri Niemi, D, Saskatoon (WHL); maybe a small skilled forward that drops down or a goalie with the second round or third round pick we should get for moving down.
After listening to the latest missives from Mr. Lowe, I'd say it'll be exceedingly unlikely that they trade up. It looks much more likely that they're going to jettison some bodies and load up on 2nd rounders, perhaps even another 1st rounder in the 20-30 range.
IMO we're likely to see a recurrence of the '02 draft, when a top 6 forward (Hecht) was traded for a couple of high 2nd rounders (Stoll and JDD).
I would love to see that. I think that you can get some VERY good players in the second round this year.
I'd rather see us move back about that far, and hopefully pick up a 2nd rounder. Although, the pick we got from the Devils was the last pick in the 2nd round, so it was basically a 3rd.
Not if Eberle is there imho. We take him if we can. I'd even try to jump up 4 or 5 spots to get him if we need to. I really like that kid. And small and quick seems to work well in the new NHL.
If we can't move up and Eberle is gone, I'd be ok with moving down a few spots if 1) both Colborne and Toews were still on the board(so we can still get one of them), and 2) we can pick up a 2nd. This is a deep draft, but I'm really not too concerned with pick up extra players. After 3 1st last year we don't really need the extra picks. So if it doesn't happen and we just draft at 22, I'm fine with that as well.
I'd prefer to target extra 09 picks, to be honest. I think it is almost as deep as 08, and it has much higher end talent. That is the one where we want to have lots of extra assets to throw around for a potential Lindros type deal for Tavares/Hedman or a lesser deal to get one of the other potential stars in the top 10.
I hear you s7ark. Eberle would be terrific, and if he is there, then I would agree that the best move would be to take him. Unfortunately, I believe he'll be long gone by 22, and I said this in another thread, but I think he'll actually go much sooner than he's expected to, and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he went around 13 or so. I'd be worried about the cost of moving up that high. All in all, I think the depth in this draft is really good, so getting more picks just increases the chances of getting some real quality players.
Although I definately can't agree with you on Colborne, and Toews I don't see going until the 2nd round.
