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Who is Umberger?

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Old
06-03-2008, 03:30 PM
  #1
habs1988
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Who is Umberger?

Habs fan here!

Well, everybody saw Umberger during the playoffs! Scored 10 goals - 5 assists.

Who is the real Umberger? The one who got 10 goals in 15 games, or the one who got 13 goals - 37 assists ?

What kind of player is he really?

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06-03-2008, 03:32 PM
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Vell, Umberger's just zis guy, you know?

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06-03-2008, 03:40 PM
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The latter. But that's a secret...

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06-03-2008, 03:48 PM
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50-60 point player who can play all throughout your lineup and kill penalties.

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06-03-2008, 03:50 PM
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Neither. Umberger will be closer to the latter but slightly better.

I'd say his ceiling is an 80ppy player during his prime but he is much more likely never to hit 80pts in a season. I'd say he is most likely to hit 65/year with a high of 75. However, the points are not what makes him valuable to a team, he is a hard worker and good defender who has hot streaks in the playoffs that increase his trade value for the offseason ;-)

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06-03-2008, 03:52 PM
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06-03-2008, 03:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richyrich View Post
Neither. Umberger will be closer to the latter but slightly better.

I'd say his ceiling is an 80ppy player during his prime but he is much more likely never to hit 80pts in a season. I'd say he is most likely to hit 65/year with a high of 75. However, the points are not what makes him valuable to a team, he is a hard worker and good defender who has hot streaks in the playoffs that increase his trade value for the offseason ;-)
the guy is 26...he's in his prime offensive years. a 30 point jump would be impressive at this point. he'll be a good offensive player, but PPG is a bit of a stretch.

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06-03-2008, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
the guy is 26...he's in his prime offensive years. a 30 point jump would be impressive at this point. he'll be a good offensive player, but PPG is a bit of a stretch.
I thought that, physically, an athlete's best years are from 29-32. I could be mistaken, however. I seriously doubt he'll ever hit 80 but that's not to say the potential isn't there

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06-03-2008, 03:57 PM
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He did score 20 goals his rookie year. With steady linemates 25 goals 45 assists not a stretch at all IMO


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06-03-2008, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richyrich View Post
I thought that, physically, an athlete's best years are from 29-32. I could be mistaken, however. I seriously doubt he'll ever hit 80 but that's not to say the potential isn't there
in terms of offensive stat production, the majority of guys are peaking at forward in their mid 20's. they may not decline a ton from there, but they're not likely to find some reservoir of point production from that point on.

there are, of course, outliers to all general observations.

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Originally Posted by Riyadh View Post
He did score 20 goals his rookie year. With steady linemates 25 goals 45 assists not a stretch at all IMO[/IMG]
would be a career year for him, IMO...i think a portion of his decline in goals was because he focused on setting up teammates a bit more this past year...making the play, rather than being around the net and cleaning up a loose puck.

he should raise his shooting % a bit next year, as it was abnormally low for a forward this year.

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06-03-2008, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Riyadh View Post
He did score 20 goals his rookie year. With steady linemates 25 goals 45 assists not a stretch at all IMO

yeah, I say max 30 goals, more likely in the low 20's, and a high of 45 assists, with an average closer to 30 or 35. But he is versatile, and if he played with Crosby, he could put up nice numbers.

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06-03-2008, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
would be a career year for him, IMO...i think a portion of his decline in goals was because he focused on setting up teammates a bit more this past year...making the play, rather than being around the net and cleaning up a loose puck.

he should raise his shooting % a bit next year, as it was abnormally low for a forward this year.
Yeah, without going back to the stats because I'm lazy, I was never worried he'd miss the goalie's chest with his shots this year. I was pretty disappointed in his ability to finish, but his rise in playmaking was a great addition since we have so many talented scorers.

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06-03-2008, 04:43 PM
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I think an average of 20 and 40 is about right for Umberger, especially if he gets consistent linemates and a consistent position in the lineup. A career high of 70+ is not out of the question in my opinion, but I think you are looking at an average of a around 55-60 points which is fine for a 2nd liner, especially if he plays good defense and kills penalties.

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06-03-2008, 04:48 PM
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A 20-40 second liner who will occasionally take nights and shifts off. He'll kill penalties but isn't always defensively sound 5 on 5.

If he ever learned to use his body he could probably be a 30-50 player. I don't ever see that happening though.

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06-03-2008, 05:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
I think an average of 20 and 40 is about right for Umberger, especially if he gets consistent linemates and a consistent position in the lineup. A career high of 70+ is not out of the question in my opinion, but I think you are looking at an average of a around 55-60 points which is fine for a 2nd liner, especially if he plays good defense and kills penalties.
That's sad that 55-60 points is considered a good second line player. Trap hockey and expansion really killed the NHL.

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06-03-2008, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
50-60 point player who can play all throughout your lineup and kill penalties.
This. But his career year or two may be closer to 70.

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06-03-2008, 05:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
That's sad that 55-60 points is considered a good second line player. Trap hockey and expansion really killed the NHL.
I dont think thats really so great for a second liner. I think he's a good second liner because he plays an all around game. Obviously Malkin is a great second liner, not Umby, but a good 2 way player that puts up 60 points would be welcome to most teams second line...just not ours .
I see him as a 20-40 guy if he gets on a decent line.

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06-03-2008, 09:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
That's sad that 55-60 points is considered a good second line player. Trap hockey and expansion really killed the NHL.
Coaching has affected the game for sure, but it's also an issue of there simply being better hockey players out there throughout the lineups...goalies have also improved considerably as well.

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06-03-2008, 09:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CannonGoBoom View Post
I dont think thats really so great for a second liner. I think he's a good second liner because he plays an all around game. Obviously Malkin is a great second liner, not Umby, but a good 2 way player that puts up 60 points would be welcome to most teams second line...just not ours .
I see him as a 20-40 guy if he gets on a decent line.
Malkin is a first liner playing on the 2nd line.

There are 90 1st line spots available in the NHL...who was no. 90 in the league in scoring this year? Jeff Carter at 53 pts.

60 pts is fantastic for your 2nd line.

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06-03-2008, 09:35 PM
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The latter. But that's a secret...
lol exactly. NHL, give us your defenseman.

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06-03-2008, 10:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Malkin is a first liner playing on the 2nd line.

There are 90 1st line spots available in the NHL...who was no. 90 in the league in scoring this year? Jeff Carter at 53 pts.

60 pts is fantastic for your 2nd line.
there are plenty of teams in the NHL that would not consider Umberger a "fantastic" 2nd line player.

My opinion of why 60 points is good for a second line player is because the league is watered down. There are too many teams in the league.

If we eliminated 2 teams from the East and 2 from the West that would leave a lot of players looking for teams. Each remaining team in the league would then basically add 2 good players. Just taking those top 9 forwrds and top 4 Dmen that would make 52 players and 4 goalies available from the teams eliminated. That would mean each team would add 2 players that would step in and play a top 9 forward spot a top 4 D spot or a goalie to start in net. Guys like upshall would be cut from the flyers (depending on who you feel is the 9th best forward) unless you think her would be an effective 4th line player. someone like parent may end up spending another season with the phantoms and almost for sure giroux would spend a full season with the phantoms. The level of play would be much higher and i wish they would take this into consideration but obviously they wont because its all about making money.

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06-03-2008, 10:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CannonGoBoom View Post
there are plenty of teams in the NHL that would not consider Umberger a "fantastic" 2nd line player.

My opinion of why 60 points is good for a second line player is because the league is watered down. There are too many teams in the league.

If we eliminated 2 teams from the East and 2 from the West that would leave a lot of players looking for teams. Each remaining team in the league would then basically add 2 good players. Just taking those top 9 forwrds and top 4 Dmen that would make 52 players and 4 goalies available from the teams eliminated. That would mean each team would add 2 players that would step in and play a top 9 forward spot a top 4 D spot or a goalie to start in net. Guys like upshall would be cut from the flyers (depending on who you feel is the 9th best forward) unless you think her would be an effective 4th line player. someone like parent may end up spending another season with the phantoms and almost for sure giroux would spend a full season with the phantoms. The level of play would be much higher and i wish they would take this into consideration but obviously they wont because its all about making money.
So in essence, as the NHL is currently constructed, 60 points is pretty good for a second liner?

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06-03-2008, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
So in essence, as the NHL is currently constructed, 60 points is pretty good for a second liner?
yeah, look around the league at the first and second line point totals. It fits

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06-03-2008, 11:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CannonGoBoom View Post
there are plenty of teams in the NHL that would not consider Umberger a "fantastic" 2nd line player.
That's because talent isn't evenly distributed...Pens have two first line centers, for example. That it isn't evenly distributed is a given and obvious fact. However, there are more teams that would be more than happy to have Umberger on their 2nd line than not.

Quote:
My opinion of why 60 points is good for a second line player is because the league is watered down. There are too many teams in the league.

If we eliminated 2 teams from the East and 2 from the West that would leave a lot of players looking for teams. Each remaining team in the league would then basically add 2 good players. Just taking those top 9 forwrds and top 4 Dmen that would make 52 players and 4 goalies available from the teams eliminated. That would mean each team would add 2 players that would step in and play a top 9 forward spot a top 4 D spot or a goalie to start in net. Guys like upshall would be cut from the flyers (depending on who you feel is the 9th best forward) unless you think her would be an effective 4th line player. someone like parent may end up spending another season with the phantoms and almost for sure giroux would spend a full season with the phantoms. The level of play would be much higher and i wish they would take this into consideration but obviously they wont because its all about making money.
Well, since we live in reality and there are 30 teams playing in the league...60 points is pretty good for a 2nd liner. Moreover, if you removed 4 teams from the league, that would remove 12 first-line slots from the league, making it 78 first line players. No. 78 in the league this past year in scoring was...Mike Knuble at 55 points. 60 points would still be pretty damn good for a 2nd line player in your model.

It's also a terribly simplistic reasoning...by lessening the number of teams you distribute talent less, which means the weakest player in the league would be stronger than it currently is. Given that strong defense tends to trump strong offense, that would tend to make me believe that scoring would go down in the league not up. The 4 weakest starting goalies would be removed, which would make goaltending in the league stronger.

Scoring tends to go down on average in the playoffs because weak teams aren't getting trounced and bringing up the averages...

If you want to see more scoring and more points being produced, add teams...don't take 'em away. Add 4 teams total and you bring in 24 more defenseman into the league who are currently in the AHL for the top-end talent in the NHL to tool on...you bring in 8 more goaltenders who wouldn't be in the NHL... you bring in 48 more forwards that wouldn't be in the league.

The reason scoring has gone down is because coaching has improved and the level of talent in the league has improved immensely the last 30 years. Go watch a game from the 80s and see how crappy bottom pairing guys are on some of those teams.

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06-04-2008, 06:02 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
That's because talent isn't evenly distributed...Pens have two first line centers, for example. That it isn't evenly distributed is a given and obvious fact. However, there are more teams that would be more than happy to have Umberger on their 2nd line than not.



Well, since we live in reality and there are 30 teams playing in the league...60 points is pretty good for a 2nd liner. Moreover, if you removed 4 teams from the league, that would remove 12 first-line slots from the league, making it 78 first line players. No. 78 in the league this past year in scoring was...Mike Knuble at 55 points. 60 points would still be pretty damn good for a 2nd line player in your model.

It's also a terribly simplistic reasoning...by lessening the number of teams you distribute talent less, which means the weakest player in the league would be stronger than it currently is. Given that strong defense tends to trump strong offense, that would tend to make me believe that scoring would go down in the league not up. The 4 weakest starting goalies would be removed, which would make goaltending in the league stronger.

Scoring tends to go down on average in the playoffs because weak teams aren't getting trounced and bringing up the averages...

If you want to see more scoring and more points being produced, add teams...don't take 'em away. Add 4 teams total and you bring in 24 more defenseman into the league who are currently in the AHL for the top-end talent in the NHL to tool on...you bring in 8 more goaltenders who wouldn't be in the NHL... you bring in 48 more forwards that wouldn't be in the league.

The reason scoring has gone down is because coaching has improved and the level of talent in the league has improved immensely the last 30 years. Go watch a game from the 80s and see how crappy bottom pairing guys are on some of those teams.
Im not saying malkin should be a second line center, Im just saying he is. And since I live in reality as well I know that not every team is balanced like your scale of the top 90 scorers should be first line players or whatever. Some teams would love a 60 point scorere on their second line (LA Kings) and others it doesnt impress, hence the reason the flyers are looking to move him.

I couldnt care less how much players score i would jsut like to see the best players playing all the time. I would much rather watch a low scoring game with highly skilled players than a high scoring game with a punch of nobodys playing 3rd line.

I dont really agree that scoring would go down so much anyway. if every team in the NHL had 2 very good lines and 3 balanced lines that could all score it would be difficult to defend. I mean really look at the two teams left, they both are great teams but both are fueled by just a few players for the most part.

Games in the olympics and allstar games are often pretty high scoring, when you have a ton of talented forwards coming at you all night it wears down a defense.

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