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Ellis 2 years 3.5 million....Garon's worth???

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06-20-2008, 01:59 PM
  #1
jeetz
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Ellis 2 years 3.5 million....Garon's worth???

I think the Oilers should pounce all over this and lock Garon up 4 years 7-8 mil.
That would free up alot of salary after Roli moves on.

Thoughts?

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06-20-2008, 02:03 PM
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Giant Moo
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With his performance last season, and expecting a strong performance this season (as #1 from the get-go), I doubt he's going to take less than $2M/year long-term.

An extension of $10 over 3 years might be more likely.

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06-20-2008, 02:15 PM
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Hemsky4PM
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I personally believe in Garon and don't see how we're going to get a better tender than him. He's top 15 and could improve. He's at the same tier as guys like Biron and Bryzgalov I think. I would try to get him to sign for 4 years at 3.5M per season, that's pretty good security for a guy who only put up solid starting numbers this past season.

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06-20-2008, 02:15 PM
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Oilerdiehard
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Has anyone looked at the Ellis' stats from the ECHL and AHL?

He never even came close in the minors to posting the kind of save percentage he did in the NHL last year. IMO his chances of flopping and being a disappointment are pretty high.

If Garon has another year like last year. He is going to be worth probably about the same as what Ellis got. If he has an even better year he could get expensive.

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06-20-2008, 02:17 PM
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GSC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
With his performance last season, and expecting a strong performance this season (as #1 from the get-go), I doubt he's going to take less than $2M/year long-term.

An extension of $10 over 3 years might be more likely.
Ya, seems like that's what will go down. I'd like to see him sign for under Roloson money, hopefully at about $3 MIL per. Wish he could be had for maybe $2.5 per, but I believe that's rather unlikely. That being said, I doubt Lowe signs him to an extension this summer. He'll wait until the season begins and see if he's still able to perform at the same level as last season (esp. with his ankle injury). He's in a better position this time around compared to the Roloson situation where he was a UFA after the season.

The million dollar question is will Kevin use the time to his advantage and be proactive, or will he wait until it's too late? This will be a very interesting situation to monitor throughout the offseason and possibly through to the next season if no extension is completed over the summer.

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06-20-2008, 02:20 PM
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smackdaddy
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I think when it comes to Garon, the years are going to mean more to him than the dollars. I could see him wanting a 5 year deal at 2.5. Perhaps?

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06-20-2008, 02:22 PM
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Maybe 3.5, 3.5, 3, 2 ? We keep Garon for 4 years, and a cap hit of 3

Or am I being too cheap? I was considering somewhere around 5 years with a cap hit of 2.85ish but thought that might be too long cuz he will be 35-36 by then

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06-20-2008, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilerdiehard View Post
If Garon has another year like last year. He is going to be worth probably about the same as what Ellis got. If he has an even better year he could get expensive.
He's already more expensive than 1.5 and 2. One guy getting a low-ball deal does not set the market.

Wish he'd become an FA if he was willing to settle for that little...geez.

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06-20-2008, 02:25 PM
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Hemsky4PM
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Bryzgalov signed a 3 year 4.25 per extension in Phoenix. I'd say that's comparable. The only way to get Garon at a lower dollar figure is to give more years. I'd say 4 years and 3.5 might get it done. It's still a risk, but I think he showed enough last season.

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06-20-2008, 02:32 PM
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Oilerdiehard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoudmouthHemskyfan#1 View Post
He's already more expensive than 1.5 and 2. One guy getting a low-ball deal does not set the market.

Wish he'd become an FA if he was willing to settle for that little...geez.
I said he would get at least as much as Ellis just got. I am not sure if you mis-read my post. Then I said if he has a better year he is going to cost a fair bit more than 3.5M. Sorry but from what I posted your reply post makes no sense at all to me.

I am not sure if Ellis got that low ball. He has very little track record. His numbers in the ECHL and AHL were mediocre at best. He suddenly had a year in the NHL that blew away his years in the minors. I am not sure he can sustain it.

By the way Garon had close to the same save percentage in LA his last season that he had in Edmonton last year.

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06-20-2008, 02:44 PM
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Just roll Roli's money to Garon's new contract at the end of the year. A cap hit of $3.6M over multiple years is fair for him. Going over $4M a year is starting to push it unless Garon proves himself a world beater this year.

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06-20-2008, 02:45 PM
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Yeah pretty much, I think Garon is just going to take over Roli's salary (give or take a little) once Roli's contract is up.

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06-20-2008, 03:26 PM
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Giant Moo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Bryzgalov signed a 3 year 4.25 per extension in Phoenix. I'd say that's comparable. The only way to get Garon at a lower dollar figure is to give more years. I'd say 4 years and 3.5 might get it done. It's still a risk, but I think he showed enough last season.
Bryz has proven more than Garon over his career so far, and thus deserves more money. Lowe has leverage, but only temporarily, since Garon is a UFA at the end of 2009. I think a contract with a cap hit of $3.33M/y is good for both sides, whatever length it is.

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06-20-2008, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
Just roll Roli's money to Garon's new contract at the end of the year. A cap hit of $3.6M over multiple years is fair for him. Going over $4M a year is starting to push it unless Garon proves himself a world beater this year.
I think 3.6 is alright.....provided its not too long. Cap will rise but 3.6 isnt chunk change. We don't want to run into another Roli situation

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06-20-2008, 04:09 PM
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LoudmouthHemskyfan#1
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Originally Posted by Oilerdiehard View Post
I said he would get at least as much as Ellis just got. I am not sure if you mis-read my post. Then I said if he has a better year he is going to cost a fair bit more than 3.5M. Sorry but from what I posted your reply post makes no sense at all to me.

I am not sure if Ellis got that low ball. He has very little track record. His numbers in the ECHL and AHL were mediocre at best. He suddenly had a year in the NHL that blew away his years in the minors. I am not sure he can sustain it.

By the way Garon had close to the same save percentage in LA his last season that he had in Edmonton last year.
Ellis got only an average of 1.75 per year...Garon's got to be looking at over 3 per as of right now.

Ellis could've got much more on the open market I'm sure. This decision is rather baffling. I would've gone after him even with our current goaltending situation.

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06-20-2008, 04:12 PM
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Little Fury
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Garon has had but one season where he played more than 60 games. I think we should see how he handles the grind of being number one before backing up the Brinks truck to his door.

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06-20-2008, 04:13 PM
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Garon has had but one season where he played more than 60 games. I think we should see how he handles the grind of being number one before backing up the Brinks truck to his door.
3 for a good goalie isn't expensive though.

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06-20-2008, 04:16 PM
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Little Fury
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3 for a good goalie isn't expensive though.
It's top 20 money. The whole Roloson thing should have taught us a few lessons about rewarding success in the short term.

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06-20-2008, 04:56 PM
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Giant Moo
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It's top 20 money. The whole Roloson thing should have taught us a few lessons about rewarding success in the short term.
Looking at the 07/08 Cap on nhlnumbers, $3M is top-22 money, $2.5 is top-26 money, and $2M is top-29 money (more or less).

If you think Garon is at least as good as half of the goalies in the league, giving him top-22 money is surely a bargain.

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06-20-2008, 04:57 PM
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I could see a four year deal starting at 4m, and de-escalating from there to 2.5m on the final year of the contract. Depending on how he plays this season, of course. If his play is worse than last year, I'd offer less.

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06-20-2008, 05:01 PM
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karnige
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Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
I think when it comes to Garon, the years are going to mean more to him than the dollars. I could see him wanting a 5 year deal at 2.5. Perhaps?
def. he is grateful lowe gave him the chance to play. I think he will be loyal in that aspect.

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06-20-2008, 05:03 PM
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thrillhous
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Why the hell haven't we locked him up yet???

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06-20-2008, 05:14 PM
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Giant Moo
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Why the hell haven't we locked him up yet???
I don't think they can extend any existing contracts until July 1st.

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06-20-2008, 05:19 PM
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Little Fury
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Looking at the 07/08 Cap on nhlnumbers, $3M is top-22 money, $2.5 is top-26 money, and $2M is top-29 money (more or less).
Well, two of those guys on that list are currently out of work as of today (another is as good as retired), so my original point stands.

Quote:
If you think Garon is at least as good as half of the goalies in the league, giving him top-22 money is surely a bargain.
Point is this: we don't know. We don't have enough evidence to make that call. Fortunately, with one more year to go, we don't have to make that decision right away.Worst case scenario is he plays his way to Roloson money (which people want to give him now anyway).

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06-20-2008, 05:23 PM
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Giant Moo
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Well, two of those guys on that list are currently out of work as of today (another is as good as retired), so my original point stands.
I guess I was obliquely agreeing with you, but I also wanted to point out the spread -- $3M for a goalie is practically a given as long as you think they're average.

Quote:
Point is this: we don't know. We don't have enough evidence to make that call. Fortunately, with one more year to go, we don't have to make that decision right away.Worst case scenario is he plays his way to Roloson money (which people want to give him now anyway).
Fair enough. I think they should propose something with his agent to get the ball rolling, but the last thing we want to do is allow Garon to get away, considering how JDD is not ready to start (and may not ever be a #1), and getting a goalie through UFA will undoubtedly be an overpayment situation.

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