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Holland: we like Howard's "potential"

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Old
04-06-2010, 07:30 PM
  #151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Unless Howard shows he's a truly elite goalie, and he's not shown anything like that yet, then I see no need to pay him big bucks.

Trade him. Sign a Conklin or Legace or whoever.
Detroit hasn't had an elite goalie since 2002.
I don't see why need pay $4M for something an $800,000 goalie can provide: Adequate goaltending.
this is the problem, though: when has he shown enough to warrant such a contract? Looking at the list of UFA goalies for next summer I really don't see anyone who will be a great, affordable alternative. After defending Osgood off and on for the past ten years, I don't think I can go back and say we can win with just any old goalie we throw back there. They have to be at least reasonably decent, but there may not be anyone reasonably decent available at a price that would make it worth letting Howard walk.

which is why I go back to a very short term (1-2 year) contract for a middling amount or even a low amount (under $3m per). But the fact that Howard is coming up on UFA instead of RFA is a big factor. IF he starts next year strong, we will have a hard time not forking over a decent sized check to keep him. And I'm not sure I see much of an alternative.

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04-06-2010, 10:10 PM
  #152
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Unless Howard plays lights out, I can't get behind paying a goalie that kind of money.

There are only a couple goalies in this league that are head-and-shoulders above everyone else.
The difference between an $800,000 goalie and a $2.5M goalie isn't very much.

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04-07-2010, 06:08 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
which is why I go back to a very short term (1-2 year) contract for a middling amount or even a low amount (under $3m per). But the fact that Howard is coming up on UFA instead of RFA is a big factor. IF he starts next year strong, we will have a hard time not forking over a decent sized check to keep him. And I'm not sure I see much of an alternative.
Here's the problem. The goaltender position is such that idiot GMs who can't build their roster properly believe that if they throw a bunch of money at a good goalie it might save their jobs.

Sadly, this also happens to be at least a little true.

You can sometimes catch a break when you have a forward coming up as an impending UFA who has a value which is a bit amorphous. That player is just one of many on a roster so teams aren't going to go as crazy in acquiring such a small piece of the overall puzzle. With a goalie, teams will be much more aggressive.

Miller got a 2.67 mil a year RFA deal before he had his first really strong year, and got a 6.25 mil deal after he had it.

Hiller got a 4.5 mil deal before he played his first full season.

Ward got a 2.67 mil RFA deal after limited success (yes, a Cup, but not a lot afterwards), and then got a monster deal after a strong contract year.

Bryzgalov got a 4.25 mil deal after one strong regular season as a starter and two decent ones as a backup.

Fleury got a huge deal before he did anything but get picked early, really.

And on, and on, and on. The moral of the story is, if Detroit wants to keep Howard past next year (assuming he stays anywhere near consistent) they are either going to have to go 4ish on him or he's going to have to take a significant hometown discount on his first major contract.

At a position where a bunch of desperate GMs will be willing to spend a ton of cash.

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04-07-2010, 08:45 AM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Unless Howard shows he's a truly elite goalie, and he's not shown anything like that yet, then I see no need to pay him big bucks.
Dude, check out the league leaders page on NHL.com. Howard is showing he's an elite goalie. There's an entry on ESPN's website right now where the writer says he deserves to be a Vezina finalist. The question, then, is not whether Howard can play at an elite level. That has been answered with a definitive "yes". The question is can he do that in the playoffs? Over the next couple of seasons? Over the next half a dozen seasons? Basically, is it a fluke or is he the real deal?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Trade him. Sign a Conklin or Legace or whoever.
Detroit hasn't had an elite goalie since 2002.
I don't see why need pay $4M for something an $800,000 goalie can provide: Adequate goaltending.
Just saying, you take Howard out and plug in a Legace or Conklin, and this team would not have made the playoffs this season. I think your position on this is a good way to perpetually suffer from playoff upsets / missed playoffs due to crappy goaltending. There's a reason hardly anybody wins the Cup with a guy like Legace or Conklin between the pipes.... while Roy, Brodeur, etc. are repeat winners.

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04-07-2010, 09:17 AM
  #155
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
Dude, check out the league leaders page on NHL.com. Howard is showing he's an elite goalie. There's an entry on ESPN's website right now where the writer says he deserves to be a Vezina finalist. The question, then, is not whether Howard can play at an elite level. That has been answered with a definitive "yes". The question is can he do that in the playoffs? Over the next couple of seasons? Over the next half a dozen seasons? Basically, is it a fluke or is he the real deal?
No, he's not. He's showing he's a capable goalie. He's had a couple monster games, but has, for the most part, simply played well enough to win.
It takes more than six months for a goalie to show they are the real deal.

If I just wanted to check stats, I'd also have never traded Manny Legace. I would have signed Conklin to a $2.5M a year contract (He was a top 10 goalie last year). I would believe that Osgood is a surefire Hall of Famer and maybe a top five goalie of his generation.

Stats can be awfully misleading when it comes to Detroit.
The team has obviously reigned in the offense in favor of a more defensive-oriented game this season.


Quote:
Just saying, you take Howard out and plug in a Legace or Conklin, and this team would not have made the playoffs this season. I think your position on this is a good way to perpetually suffer from playoff upsets / missed playoffs due to crappy goaltending.
Didn't hurt us last year or the year before, much, did it?
We haven't had elite-level goaltending since 2002. In fact, in the modern era. when has Detroit ever had elite goaltending?

Hasek Part 1?
And Hasek was at the end of his rope, pretty much.


Quote:
There's a reason hardly anybody wins the Cup with a guy like Legace or Conklin between the pipes.... while Roy, Brodeur, etc. are repeat winners.
You're comparing the Legaces, Conklins and Osgoods to Roy and Broduer.

I am comparing them to Nabokov, Turco, Vokoun, Huet, et al.

What about Niklas Backstrom? Kiprusoff? Giguere? Have they come anywhere near earning their paychecks? Despite their giant salaries, all 3 will be on the outside, looking in for these playoffs.

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04-07-2010, 09:25 AM
  #156
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
Dude, check out the league leaders page on NHL.com. Howard is showing he's an elite goalie.

Basically, is it a fluke or is he the real deal?
Seems like a relevant concern, no? Or are we just calling a guy an elite goalie when he has one elite season?

Quote:
There's a reason hardly anybody wins the Cup with a guy like Legace or Conklin between the pipes.... while Roy, Brodeur, etc. are repeat winners.
Man, just wait till Chris Osgood wins a second Cup. Then your position won't make any sense at all.

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04-07-2010, 09:57 AM
  #157
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Why don't we worry about whether he's REALLY an elite goalie when he stops being an elite goalie?

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04-07-2010, 10:06 AM
  #158
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A season of good stats with the Wings doesn't make you an elite goalie. Osgood did it, Legace did it. Neither one was at any point top 5 in the league.

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04-07-2010, 10:17 AM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Why don't we worry about whether he's REALLY an elite goalie when he stops being an elite goalie?
A) He's never been an elite goalie, so he can't stop something he's never started.
B) Because we're talking about paying him what he's worth.

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04-07-2010, 10:18 AM
  #160
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Quote from Ken Holland:
Quote:
My feeling is if you can get one of the five or six best goalies in the league you can spend the money. We can’t get into those guys, and the difference between the eighth goalie in the league and the 15th goalie, it’s a big difference in money. It’s not a big difference in performance.
I'll go another step forward ... the difference between eighth and 26th isn't that big a difference in performance

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04-07-2010, 10:37 AM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
A) He's never been an elite goalie, so he can't stop something he's never started.
B) Because we're talking about paying him what he's worth.
A) He's been elite since November, the issue was whether he will be elite in the future or if he's a flash in the pan.
B) They don't have to decide what he's worth for 15 months, so discussing what he might be worth before he starts a playoff game is just pointless.

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04-07-2010, 10:49 AM
  #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
A) He's been elite since November, the issue was whether he will be elite in the future or if he's a flash in the pan.
B) They don't have to decide what he's worth for 15 months, so discussing what he might be worth before he starts a playoff game is just pointless.
A) No he hasn't. Jimmy has been solid. He's had a couple great games. He probably saved out season, because he played well enough to steal the job from a sucky Osgood. But he's not "elite."
B) Why did you even bother responding. Because that's what we've been talking about for two pages.

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04-07-2010, 11:14 AM
  #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Quote from Ken Holland:


I'll go another step forward ... the difference between eighth and 26th isn't that big a difference in performance
Captain, I agree with you 100%. What is the world coming too?

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04-07-2010, 11:18 AM
  #164
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
I don't know how this will turn out. Honestly, I think Holland should know better than to go cheap on his goalie. Legace in 2006 and Osgood in 2001 are good examples where substandard goaltending was a major factor in a first round exit, on teams that had championship talent.
We went cheap on a goalie when we won a Cup in 08 and when we went to game 7 last season. Goalie performance is incredibly random. Especially in the Cap era, you don't spend big money on a goalie unless he is an established elite goalie.

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04-07-2010, 11:21 AM
  #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
A) No he hasn't. Jimmy has been solid. He's had a couple great games. He probably saved out season, because he played well enough to steal the job from a sucky Osgood. But he's not "elite."
B) Why did you even bother responding. Because that's what we've been talking about for two pages.
A) What would you consider elite then? Better then a .920 SV%? 40+ wins, Better then a 2.20 GAA? Just asking..

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04-07-2010, 11:26 AM
  #166
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I think the issue here isn't that Jimmy can't do it..but the question is if he can do it over multiple seasons to justify having a big contract.

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04-07-2010, 11:28 AM
  #167
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Originally Posted by zetterberg40 View Post
A) What would you consider elite then? Better then a .920 SV%? 40+ wins, Better then a 2.20 GAA? Just asking..
We've been able to do the tandem thing for a while, I think every coach wants a 70+ game starter every year. If Howard can show that he can be a workhorse next year I'd like to see him compensated, but that 4m+ tag that gets handed out to goalies (Bryzgalov, Hiller) after minimal success is hard to swallow. It's worked this year for Bryzgalov, but the goalie is the one position that if you overpay, you're ****ed. There's no where to hide an overpriced goalie.

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04-07-2010, 12:12 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by zetterberg40 View Post
A) What would you consider elite then? Better then a .920 SV%? 40+ wins, Better then a 2.20 GAA? Just asking..
Here's what I consider elite for a goalie:

Put him in net, and be damn near 100 percent confident that your goalie is going to give you an advantage.

In today's NHL, how many goalies are you willing to say that about?
An old Brodeur? Doubt it.
Luongo? His playoff performances leave doubts.
Miller? One two week tournament doesn't make or break a career.
Kiprusoff? He's rebounded, but he's on the outside looking in.
Lundquist? Looks like the Rangers are sitting out.
Backstrom? Great goalie in Lemaire's trap. Not so great today, is he?


Right now, I'd say Luongo and Miller are on the cusp of being "elite" goalies. They are so close, that I'd pay a big chunk of change for either.

Maybe Lundquist, too.

After that, I can't think of many goalies that are worth paying more than $3 million a year.

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04-07-2010, 01:03 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Why don't we worry about whether he's REALLY an elite goalie when he stops being an elite goalie?
Will that moment come before or after he signs a long term deal?

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04-07-2010, 02:05 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Here's what I consider elite for a goalie:

Put him in net, and be damn near 100 percent confident that your goalie is going to give you an advantage.

In today's NHL, how many goalies are you willing to say that about?
An old Brodeur? Doubt it.
Luongo? His playoff performances leave doubts.
Miller? One two week tournament doesn't make or break a career.
Kiprusoff? He's rebounded, but he's on the outside looking in.
Lundquist? Looks like the Rangers are sitting out.
Backstrom? Great goalie in Lemaire's trap. Not so great today, is he?

Right now, I'd say Luongo and Miller are on the cusp of being "elite" goalies. They are so close, that I'd pay a big chunk of change for either.

Maybe Lundquist, too.

After that, I can't think of many goalies that are worth paying more than $3 million a year.
So for the record, you don't believe there is a single elite goalie in the NHL today, am I getting that right?

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Will that moment come before or after he signs a long term deal?
He can't sign anything until July 1st, so if he's still elite at that point he either took the Wings to the Cup or the offense completely died in the playoffs and wasted his efforts. In either case, he will have shown that he can carry over elite play into the playoffs.

Or if he has a bad playoff maybe they extend him for cheap. Or maybe they decide to wait until next season to extend him. Or maybe he flames out completely and they don't extend him at all.

None of these things can happen until July at the very earliest. His contract is not an issue and we can't even have an informed discussion about it until we see him play in the playoffs. I don't know what all the Howard Extension Hysteria is about all of a sudden.

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04-07-2010, 02:26 PM
  #171
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So for the record, you don't believe there is a single elite goalie in the NHL today, am I getting that right?
I don't know what Tin is getting at exactly, but I will say this: I think the top tier of NHL netminders right now is inferior to the top tier of NHL netminders 5+ years ago, while 'above average to good' tier of goalies is much larger now than it was back then.

Quote:
He can't sign anything until July 1st, so if he's still elite at that point he either took the Wings to the Cup or the offense completely died in the playoffs and wasted his efforts. In either case, he will have shown that he can carry over elite play into the playoffs.

Or if he has a bad playoff maybe they extend him for cheap. Or maybe they decide to wait until next season to extend him. Or maybe he flames out completely and they don't extend him at all.

None of these things can happen until July at the very earliest. His contract is not an issue and we can't even have an informed discussion about it until we see him play in the playoffs. I don't know what all the Howard Extension Hysteria is about all of a sudden.
You have an odd definition of hysteria. I think a discussion of Howard's potential value given a few different outcomes is a relevant exercise, even if said value isn't going to be seriously discussed in the organization for a few months yet. Holland isn't known for negotiating deals during the playoffs, so should we not discuss any signings of impending players since it will be post-playoff before that is addressed at the earliest, either?

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04-07-2010, 02:56 PM
  #172
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So for the record, you don't believe there is a single elite goalie in the NHL today, am I getting that right?
A proven elite goalie? I'd have to say no.
I'd risk elite level money on luongo, Miller and Lundquist.

Maybe I'd consider spending the money on a Kiprusoff. Maybe. Another guy I'd consider, at a is Marc Andre Fluery. And maybe Cam ward.

But unless you're getting a bonafide stud, why spend the money?

Do you want Ty Conklin and Frolov?
Or do you want Huet?

Do you want Brad Stuart and Johan Hedberg?
Or Brett Lebda and Niklas Backstrom?

This isn't like the late 90s early 2000s, when teams could load up on talent at forward, defense and goalie.
For years, it bothered me that Colorado and Dallas and NJ had a significant edge over us in goal (Roy/Belfour/Brodie over Osgood).

But the cap forces teams to decide where they are going to spend their money. And unless you're getting a star netminder, I see no reason why we should waste so much cap space there. The money spent in other places gives us an edge over teams that have wasted $4M on an average goalie.

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04-07-2010, 04:52 PM
  #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottwood View Post
We went cheap on a goalie when we won a Cup in 08 and when we went to game 7 last season. Goalie performance is incredibly random. Especially in the Cap era, you don't spend big money on a goalie unless he is an established elite goalie.
We went cheap on a goalie with a very good resume and a history of playing well for us. A guy who will probably generate arguments for the HoF because of the numbers he has collected over his career and the cups he's won. Maybe I'm alone in this but I view that situation slightly different from signing a guy like Ty Conklin whose track record is less stellar.

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04-07-2010, 05:01 PM
  #174
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Ozzy is a future HoF goalie... he is not however playing at that level right now...

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04-07-2010, 05:25 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
We went cheap on a goalie with a very good resume and a history of playing well for us. A guy who will probably generate arguments for the HoF because of the numbers he has collected over his career and the cups he's won. Maybe I'm alone in this but I view that situation slightly different from signing a guy like Ty Conklin whose track record is less stellar.
What do you think Osgood's career record would be like if he spent his career in LA, Florida and Phoenix?

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