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The least populated city in the NHL?

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Old
07-03-2008, 01:09 PM
  #51
Puckclektr
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
I have spent a lot of time looking at the three Census ways of counting "urban" populations for my job.

1) City Populations--in the USA city boundaries may only capture a tiny portion of the true city (Boston, Pittsburgh) or they take in rural areas (Las Vegas, Phoenix in the 1980s). City boundaries are the LEAST accurate way to measure population.

2) Metropolitian Statistical Areas--begin with a central city (or cities) with a population of greater than 50,000 and then include any neighboring county IF 15% or more of the populations works in the core metro counties. This definition overestimates by taking in parts of counties that are fundamentally rural in my opinion.

3) Census Urbanized Areas--start with a central city or cities with a population of 50,000 and add in Census Tracks where the population density exceeds a certain threshold. In other words, only count the area that is fairly densely settled around a central city. In my opinion this is by far the best definition of US Metropolitan Areas. I think it contains the LEAST amount of error. The problem is that they only update the Urbanized Areas after each decennial Census so all we have to work with is the 2000 Urbanized Area Numbers.


Top U.S. Urbanizied Areas in 2000
New York 17.8 (million)
Los Angeles 11.8
Chicago 8.3
Philadelphia 5.1
Miami 4.9
San Francisco 4.7
Dallas 4.1
Boston 4.0
Washington 3.9
Detroit 3.9

Houston 3.8
Atlanta 3.5
Phoenix 2.9

Seattle 2.7
San Diego 2.6
Minneapolis 2.4
St. Louis 2.0

Baltimore 2.0
Tampa 2.0
Denver 1.9

Cleveland 1.8
Pittsburgh 1.7
Portland 1.5
Cincinnati 1.5
Virginia Beach 1.4
Sacramento 1.4
Kansas City 1.3
San Antonio 1.3
Las Vegas 1.3
Milwaukee 1.3
Indianapolis 1.2
Providence 1.1
Orlando 1.1[/b]
Columbus 1.1
New Orleans 1.0
Buffalo 1.0
...
Raleigh-Durham .83
Nashville .75


2007 Metro Estimates for Canadian Cities:
5.5 Toronto
3.7 Montreal
2.3 Vancouver
1.2 Ottawa
1.1 Calgary
1.1 Edmonton

0.7 Quebec
0.7 Hamilton
0.7 Winnipeg
.05 Kitchener
.05 London
Pretty accurate. BUt if Canada were using Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area(CMSA) like the USA Toronto's numbers would be inflated to around 9 million.

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07-03-2008, 01:15 PM
  #52
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For starters, Canada and the USA calculates their metro areas a lot differently. The USA inflates them by grabbing other cities within a good distance away and adding it to their area for a higher population, thus increasing your market and producing more business opportunities.
If Toronto were in the USA, the metro areas of Oshawa, Hamilton, Niagara, Barrie and possibly Guelph, K-W would al be included. You could also even add Buffalo. YOu drive from south BUffalo right up to Niagra Falls, cross the border and follow the QEW to the 401 to Bowmanville/Clarington, and it is pretty much all built up aside from a few minutes between St.Catherines and Grimsby...

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07-03-2008, 01:26 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sonny side up View Post
if you are looking at strickly city...

bottom 5 are
1. NYI (Uniondale, NY - Pop. 23,011)
2. FLA (Sunrise, FL - Pop. 90,227)
3. PHX (Glendale, AZ - Pop. 246,531)
4. NJ (Newark, NJ - Pop. 281,402)
5. MIN (St. Paul, MN - Pop. 287,151)

That is city population only... not metro... directly from Wiki.. so places like Uniondale are based off of the 2000 pop... and Newark is based on 2006...

Almost all the people in Uniondale can fit in the Islanders arena... that is AWESOME!!
to make me feel better, you might as well include the population of garden city (21,672) for the isles, considering the coliseum is right on the border of the 2 cities and people can park right across the street in garden city to see a game. and if you know the area well enough, how many of the 23,011 people of uniondale care about hockey? (put this in a way that hopefully won't offend anybody)

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07-03-2008, 01:48 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sonny side up View Post
if you are looking at strickly city...

bottom 5 are
1. NYI (Uniondale, NY - Pop. 23,011)
2. FLA (Sunrise, FL - Pop. 90,227)
3. PHX (Glendale, AZ - Pop. 246,531)
4. NJ (Newark, NJ - Pop. 281,402)
5. MIN (St. Paul, MN - Pop. 287,151)

That is city population only... not metro... directly from Wiki.. so places like Uniondale are based off of the 2000 pop... and Newark is based on 2006...

Almost all the people in Uniondale can fit in the Islanders arena... that is AWESOME!!
The actual city the team plays its home games in is meaningless when you consider that the team both represents the major city in the metro area and that it draws from the entire metropolitan area.

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07-03-2008, 02:15 PM
  #55
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Falconer - for Dallas you have to include Fort Worth, which is only 25 miles west and definitely part of the population center. I bet Fort Worth has its own, and Arlington, which is also a definite part of the metro area, might as well.

All population numbers I've seen for the combined area hover around six million.

Edit: Just adding up three county populations that typically make of the "DFW Metroplex" I got 4.8 million (Dallas, Tarrant and Collin). Denton, Rockwall, Parker and Kaufman are also typically considered part of the metro area, though the population definitely peters out in the latter three.

So you're missing DFW people somewhere.


Last edited by Kritter471: 07-03-2008 at 02:23 PM.
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07-03-2008, 03:02 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by TerminatorBlue View Post
Atlanta 470,688

Otttawa 1,190,982
Is that Ottawa proper, or the Ottawa metropolitan area?

Atlanta i s 486,411 according to the 2006 U.S. Census Burrau estimate, but the metro area of Atlanta is 4,247,981 according to the 2000 Census.

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07-03-2008, 03:42 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by tangible_faith View Post
For starters, Canada and the USA calculates their metro areas a lot differently. The USA inflates them by grabbing other cities within a good distance away and adding it to their area for a higher population, thus increasing your market and producing more business opportunities.
Which is why I DID NOT use the MSA numbers produced by the US Census Bureau. Instead I posted the "Urbanized Area" numbers which are MUCH less inclusive and therefore more accurate in my view.

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07-03-2008, 03:44 PM
  #58
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This has been put to rest already, but just to put the figures up there:
from the wiki
"The combined population of Nassau and Suffolk counties was 2,753,913 people; Suffolk County's share at 1,419,369 and Nassau County's at 1,334,544."

This isn't including the lots of Isles fans that live in Queens, BK and the rest of New York. Not to mention all the Whalers converts. So Metro NY has more citizens than lots of major cities.

I really feel this argument is moot. There is no way to answer which team has the least fans, unless every team went out into their communities and polled every household whether they care about hockey or not. That said, The Isles and NJ might have the smallest fanbases, regardless of population, because we're all crammed into an ara 50 miles across with three teams to choose from. This also might apply to LA/Anaheim.

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07-03-2008, 03:45 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Kritter471 View Post
Falconer - for Dallas you have to include Fort Worth, which is only 25 miles west and definitely part of the population center. I bet Fort Worth has its own, and Arlington, which is also a definite part of the metro area, might as well.

All population numbers I've seen for the combined area hover around six million.

Edit: Just adding up three county populations that typically make of the "DFW Metroplex" I got 4.8 million (Dallas, Tarrant and Collin). Denton, Rockwall, Parker and Kaufman are also typically considered part of the metro area, though the population definitely peters out in the latter three.

So you're missing DFW people somewhere.
People, please read my post more carefully. I posted the 2000 Urbanized Area numbers. Southern cities like Atlanta and Dallas have grown very significantly since 2000 but the Census Bureau only updates "Urbanized Areas" after each decennial census.

You could use the MSA 2007 estimates but the MSA definitions are over generous in my opinion.

So you two options. A slight out of data but more accurate "Urbanized Area" numbers or a more up to data but overly generous "MSA" numbers. Neither are perfect, but generally they are going to show roughly the same thing. Nashville, Raleigh and Buffalo are still smallish markets no matter which definition you choose.

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07-03-2008, 04:09 PM
  #60
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The proper way to measure this is to count the population within a certain radius of each team's home ice rink. That being said, I'd say if we used 20 miles, I'm sure the New York Rangers would have the highest population.

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07-03-2008, 05:14 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Rafael View Post
The proper way to measure this is to count the population within a certain radius of each team's home ice rink. That being said, I'd say if we used 20 miles, I'm sure the New York Rangers would have the highest population.
This is a good point but I'm not an expert at using G.I.S.

Over at Baseball Prospectus Nate Silver did a cool study of baseball teams where he used a distance measures to estimate fan base. The closer you were to the stadium the higher the probability of attending a game. It isn't perfect but it got some very cool results out of it.

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07-03-2008, 05:14 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
Which is why I DID NOT use the MSA numbers produced by the US Census Bureau. Instead I posted the "Urbanized Area" numbers which are MUCH less inclusive and therefore more accurate in my view.
That's why I said your numbers were pretty accurate in a previous post...

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07-03-2008, 11:01 PM
  #63
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...opolitan_areas

This is a useful link with metropolitan areas in the US, including census figures for both 2000 and 2007. It includes percentage growth during that period as well.

Phoenix is 4.17 million, up from 3.25 million in 2000, for 28 percent growth.

The DC area is eighth largest in the US at 5.3 million, up from 4.79 million in 2000, for a 10 percent growth.

Atlanta is the ninth largest metro area in the US at 5.27 million in 2007, up from 4.248 million in 2000, for an increase of an incredible 24 percent in seven years.

Dallas? In 2007, 6.24 million and in 2000, 5.16 million, for massive 19 percent growth in just seven years.

Areas on the outside, looking in? Houston is sixth largest in the US, with 5.62 million in 2007, up from 4.715 million in 2000, for a whopping 19.3 percent growth in seven years.

There's a reason the NHL wants to remain in certain cities, and move into certain places where it does not currently have a presence, and demographic trends form a good chunk of the reason.

Atlanta, Phoenix, and both of Dallas and Houston in Texas are rapidly growing, wealthy cities. The NHL wants to stay there, even if hurting, and wants to get in there, if not there currently. It's simple numbers.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...reas_in_Canada

This is a good metropolitan area chart for Canada, using 2000 and 2006 census figures.

At any rate, the answer is Edmonton, with a metro area of 1,034,945 in 2006. Ottawa is slightly ahead of Buffalo (although this does not count Buffalo's Canadian fans across the border), which is slightly ahead of Calgary, which is ahead of Edmonton.


Last edited by Drake1588: 07-03-2008 at 11:16 PM.
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07-03-2008, 11:33 PM
  #64
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I need to update these numbers soon, but here's a very accurate view of the populations around the NHL:

Source: Populations & Trends
Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
I thought I'd compile a list of the population trends for the metropolitan regions of all the current NHL cities as well as some of the potential expansion/relocation sites commonly mentioned. These figures represent the current estimated populations and the growth rate of those regions (for Canada from 2001-2007 and the US 2000-2006). The figures used were obtained from Interactive: 2007 Census Data for Canada and Cumulative Estimates of Population Change for Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Rankings: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 for the United States. I think this can help put different markets in perspective in terms of longterm earning potential and where potential future financial struggles might result from population declines or low-to-no growth rates. Feel free to sticky this if you like as I'll continually update it as newer data becomes available for the markets. Also, if you'd like additional metropolitan regions added just let me know and I'll edit them in.


New York City, NY - 18,818,536 (+2.7%) Rangers, Islanders
Los Angeles, CA - 12,950,129 (+4.7%) Kings
Chicago, IL - 9,505,748 (+4.5%) Blackhawks
Dallas, TX - 6,003,967 (+16.3%) Stars
Philadelphia, PA - 5,826,742 (+2.5%) Flyers
Houston, TX - 5,539,949 (+17.5%)
Miami, FL - 5,463,857 (+9.1%) Panthers
Washington, DC - 5,290,400 (+10.3%) Capitols
Atlanta, GA - 5,138,223 (+21.0%) Thrashers
Toronto, ON - 5,113,149 (+9.2%) Maple Leafs
Detroit, MI - 4,468,966 (+0.4%) Red Wings
Boston, MA - 4,455,217 (+1.4%) Bruins
Phoenix, AZ - 4,039,182 (+24.2%) Coyotes
Montreal, QC - 3,635,571 (+5.3%) Canadiens
Seattle, WA - 3,263,497 (+7.2%)
Minneapolis, MN - 3,175,041 (+6.9%) Wild
Anaheim, CA - 3,002,048 (+5.1%) Ducks
St. Louis, MO - 2,796,368 (+3.6%) Blues
Tampa Bay, FL - 2,697,731 (+12.6%) Lightning
Denver, CO - 2,408,750 (+10.5%) Avalanche
Pittsburgh, PA - 2,370,776 (-2.5%) Penguins
Newark, NJ - 2,152,757 (+2.5%) Devils
Portland, OR - 2,137,565 (+10.9%)
Vancouver, BC - 2,116,581 (+6.5%) Canucks
Cleveland, OH - 2,114,155 (-1.6%)
Kansas City, MO - 1,967,405 (+7.1%)
San Jose, CA - 1,787,123 (+3.0%) Sharks
Las Vegas, NV - 1,777,539 (+29.2%)
Columbus, OH - 1,725,570 (+7.0%) Blue Jackets
Indianapolis, IN - 1,666,032 (+9.2%)
Milwaukee, WI - 1,509,981 (+0.6%)
Nashville, TN - 1,455,097 (+10.9%) Predators
Louisville, KY - 1,222,216 (+5.1%)
Oklahoma City, OK - 1,172,339 (+7.0%)
Buffalo, NY - 1,137,520 (-2.8%) Sabres
Ottawa, ON - 1,130,761 (+5.9%) Senators
Hartford, CT - 1,188,841 (+3.5%)
Calgary, AB - 1,079,310 (+13.4%) Flames
Salt Lake City, UT - 1,067,722 (+10.2%)
Edmonton, AB - 1,034,945 (+10.4%) Oilers
Raleigh, NC - 994,551 (+24.8%) Hurricanes
Quebec City, QC - 715,515 (+4.2%)
Winnipeg, MB - 694,668 (+2.7%)
Hamilton, ON - 692,911 (+4.6%)
London, ON - 457,729 (+5.1%)
Kitchener, ON - 451,235 (+8.9%)
Halifax, NS - 372,858 (+3.8%)
Saskatoon, SK - 233,923 (+3.5%)
Regina, SK - 194,971 (+1.1%)

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07-04-2008, 12:50 AM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
People, please read my post more carefully. I posted the 2000 Urbanized Area numbers. Southern cities like Atlanta and Dallas have grown very significantly since 2000 but the Census Bureau only updates "Urbanized Areas" after each decennial census.

You could use the MSA 2007 estimates but the MSA definitions are over generous in my opinion.

So you two options. A slight out of data but more accurate "Urbanized Area" numbers or a more up to data but overly generous "MSA" numbers. Neither are perfect, but generally they are going to show roughly the same thing. Nashville, Raleigh and Buffalo are still smallish markets no matter which definition you choose.
I read your post carefully. You didn't mention that you used the 2000 numbers, which is where the disparity set in (and why I was startled by the numbers). The northern Dallas suburbs have added tens of thousands of people in the past 4-7 years. I think Frisco alone went from 30,000 to 120,000 or thereabouts.

My question still remains, with your Urbanized Area numbers, how does that take into account two urbanized areas that have grown to become one big urbanized area (NYC, DFW, SF-SJ and the like)? Is it treated as one area, or as multiple ones depending on numbers of cities?

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07-04-2008, 01:00 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by tangible_faith View Post
For starters, Canada and the USA calculates their metro areas a lot differently. The USA inflates them by grabbing other cities within a good distance away and adding it to their area for a higher population, thus increasing your market and producing more business opportunities.
The Census Bureau has standards they use to qualify a county, based upon commuter #s between counties.

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07-04-2008, 11:24 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Kritter471 View Post
I read your post carefully. You didn't mention that you used the 2000 numbers, which is where the disparity set in (and why I was startled by the numbers). The northern Dallas suburbs have added tens of thousands of people in the past 4-7 years. I think Frisco alone went from 30,000 to 120,000 or thereabouts.

My question still remains, with your Urbanized Area numbers, how does that take into account two urbanized areas that have grown to become one big urbanized area (NYC, DFW, SF-SJ and the like)? Is it treated as one area, or as multiple ones depending on numbers of cities?
Dallas and Ft. Worth are most certainly counted together. The key variable is contiguous density. Dallas and Ft. Worth have growth together and therefore are counted as one "urbanized area". The other definition "MSA" using commuting patterns not contiguous density as their criteria.

Here is an example. I live in Atlanta. If you live in rural Barrow County up on the northeast side of the state and 15% of Barrow County residents commute and work inside other counties that are part of the Atlanta MSA--presto--now the Census Bureau considers you part of "Atlanta" even though you still might have farmers and cows next door to you. That's one reason I really don't like the MSA definition. The 15% threshold is too low and there is population density element.

On the other hand if you live way out in Barrow County, using the "urbanized area" definition you DO NOT get counted as being part of Atlanta because that county is still largely rural and not built up.

So to re-cap:
MSAs--use economic activity to classify metro counties insider metro areas.
Urbanized Areas--look at where the population is actually dense or "city-like" and contiguous.


Last edited by Enstrom39: 07-04-2008 at 02:13 PM.
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07-04-2008, 12:03 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
This is a good point but I'm not an expert at using G.I.S.

Over at Baseball Prospectus Nate Silver did a cool study of baseball teams where he used a distance measures to estimate fan base. The closer you were to the stadium the higher the probability of attending a game. It isn't perfect but it got some very cool results out of it.
Do you have a link to that?

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07-04-2008, 12:45 PM
  #69
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Edmonton.
Edmonton is the 13th largest "city" in the league.


http://www.statshockey.net/nhlcities.html

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07-04-2008, 01:07 PM
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Edmonton is the 13th largest "city" in the league.

http://www.statshockey.net/nhlcities.html
That's a good link, so thanks for that. However, as has been pointed out, city limit population stats aren't very meaningful. And metropolitan area stats often take in too large an area to be truly considered a fan-'base'. The best population stat for this purpose is the "urban area", but unfortunately the most recent stats available for that are now 8 years old. So, that leaves us to consider metropolitan stats, though perhaps to modify them in some cases, subtracting out segments, too distant to be considered, of the metro area of some cities.

For example, with three teams in the NY area, we'd really have to at least divide up that area into 3 segments to represent the 3 teams. We'd have to do something similar with respect to the LA and the Bay areas of California, and perhaps maybe a couple of other NHL metro areas.

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07-04-2008, 01:11 PM
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Toronto's over 10 million if u count the "megacity"

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07-04-2008, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by pulkinator View Post
Toronto's over 10 million if u count the "megacity"
Bt megacity you mean Golden HOrsehow right? Then yeah. If not doesn't the mega city mean the amalgamated borughs and the city of Toronto which is only 2.5 million. Including the suburbs you are looking at around 6million. Include the other metros around it and you are near 10mil

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07-04-2008, 01:40 PM
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As the city just itself, isn't it Buffalo?

Excluding the metropolitan area of course, any Sabres fan want to clarify?

Vancouver the city itself has only 612,000 people but the GVA is about 2.5 million people if you include Surrey, Burnaby, Richmond, Langley, Delta, etc.

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07-04-2008, 01:51 PM
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Im not sure how you can rate the Islanders on a list like this. Its not accurate to rate us based on Uniondale. Thats one town that literally takes less then 6 minutes to drive thru.

Would it be more realistic to rate us based on the population of the entire island (7,559,372 )? Or perhaps better to base it the county the team resides within (Nassau, 1,434,544).

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07-04-2008, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adityase View Post
Try 98%.
Sorry to butt in here, but...

There is not the slightest chance in hell that 98% of the fans in Joe Louis Arena on a given game night actually live in the city of Detroit. The initial estimate of 25% was much closer, and possibly generous itself.

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