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Old
07-13-2008, 03:46 PM
  #1
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What the Rangers front office might be thinking

As we watched the team acquire piece after piece last week, a lot of us were left wondering how Glen was planning on fitting all these players (and more importantly, their contracts) under the cap this year - and especially next. On a lazy Sunday afternoon I've taken a crack at figuring out how it can work. Of course, there are always variables you haven't considered like trades, injuries, players blossoming/busting, etc. But I think this shows a reasonable scenario of how the Rangers can field a team that can make the playoffs both this year and next using just the assets that are currently Rangers property, all while staying in compliance with the salary cap. (Just how FAR into the playoffs will be dependant on the development of our younger players.)

This is my best guess of how the guys who crunch the numbers in Glen's office may have mapped it out as they made the moves they did:

Player
 
2008-09
2009-10
 
Assumptions
Scott Gomez 
7,357,143
7,357,143
  
Chris Drury 
7,050,000
7,050,000
  
Markus Naslund 
4,000,000
4,000,000
  
Nikolai Zherdev 
2,500,000
4,250,000
 Signed 4 years/$17.0MM in-season '08-'09
Nigel Dawes 
1,500,000
1,500,000
 Signed 2 years/$3.0MM summer '08
Aaron Voros 
1,000,000
1,000,000
  
Pat Rissmiller 
1,000,000
 Let go summer '09
Dan Fritsche 
950,000
950,000
 Signed 2 years/$1.9MM summer '08
Fredrik Sjostrom 
850,000
 Signed 1 year/$0.85MM summer '08, let go summer '09
Artem Anisimov 
821,667
821,667
  
Brandon Dubinsky 
633,333
2,500,000
 Signed 3 years/$7.5MM in-season '08-'09
Ryan Callahan 
575,000
1,200,000
 Signed 2 years/$2.4MM summer '09
Colton Orr 
537,500
 Let go summer '09
Lauri Korpikoski 
Sent Down
900,000
 Signed 2 years/$1.8MM summer '09
Dupont/Pyatt/Byers/Jessiman/Moore 
Sent Down
850,000
  
Blair Betts 
Traded
 Traded for prospect(s)/pick(s) summer '08
Petr Prucha 
Traded
 Traded for prospect(s)/pick(s) summer '08
Ryan Hollweg 
Waived
 Waived summer '08
     
Wade Redden 
6,500,000
6,500,000
  
Michal Rozsival 
5,000,000
5,000,000
  
Dmitri Kalinin 
2,100,000
 Let go summer '09
Paul Mara 
1,950,000
 Let go summer '09
Dan Girardi 
1,550,000
1,550,000
  
Marc Staal 
826,667
3,000,000
 Signed 4 years/$12.0MM summer '09 (with one year on ELC remaining)
Bobby Sanguinetti 
Sent Down
855,000
  
Potter/Sauer 
Sent Down
846,667
  
     
Henrik Lundqvist 
6,875,000
6,875,000
  
Stephen Valiquette 
725,000
725,000
 Signed 1 year/$0.725MM summer '09
     
Jaromir Jagr 
760,000
 Buyout
     
Salary Cap 
56,700,000
59,535,000
 Cap goes up 5%
Cap Hit 
55,061,310
57,730,477
  
Cap Penalty 
700,000
   
Cap Space 
938,690
1,804,523
  

What this tells me is that we can make this work this year (fairly obviously) - but also next year as well.

It's the 3rd year that starts to get dicey in my opinion. In 2010, a lot of the guys who I assume get RFA deals in the $1MM+ range over the next two years will come up for UFA contracts and be expecting annual numbers that begin with 2s and 3s while guys currently in the minors will be looking for their first RFA deals. Does Naslund coming off the books plus cap growth provide enough room...? Honestly, I see Rozsival getting traded in the summer of '10.

Of course, like a lot of you I see the team trying to add another top 6 talent some time long before we get to the end of the '09-'10 season, but trying to figure out who that guy might be and what he would cost takes this to a whole other level of speculation. Besides, I think the team needs to be ready to play with this roster at least to start the season - because the deal we're all looking for may not be there any time soon.

Feel free to rip it apart.

And thanks to Hockey Buzz (http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=NYR) for giving me all the data to do this geeky analysis.

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07-13-2008, 04:13 PM
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i agree.....i really think the rangers will keep rolling with a relatively new third line for the next three years seeing what the young players can do and if they do well, moving them up or keeping them and then moving on with players that dont work out and replacing them.......

what about cheraponov and anisimov......i really hope sather trades away 6 players before camp, or else it will just be too crowded

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07-13-2008, 04:24 PM
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Staal's ELC is a three-year deal. He's too young for a two-year ELC. Thus the cap hit for 09-10 is the same as the previous two years. It's only in 10-11 when it goes up.

Plus, I don't get why some people want to just give up Betts. He's signed more cheaply than some of the other 4th liners Slats signed, and it's not like they're an improvement over him.

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07-13-2008, 04:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unk View Post
Staal's ELC is a three-year deal. He's too young for a two-year ELC. Thus the cap hit for 09-10 is the same as the previous two years. It's only in 10-11 when it goes up.

Plus, I don't get why some people want to just give up Betts. He's signed more cheaply than some of the other 4th liners Slats signed, and it's not like they're an improvement over him.
its the fact that he doesnt add any offense......plus the fact that the rangers have young players they have drafted who can fill that spot in a year or two

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07-13-2008, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Unk View Post
Staal's ELC is a three-year deal. He's too young for a two-year ELC. Thus the cap hit for 09-10 is the same as the previous two years. It's only in 10-11 when it goes up.
Understood - but if you read the assumptions clause, you'll see that I have Glen & crew trying to sign him to a 4 year deal in the last year of his ELC, bumping him that year and his RFA year as a calculated risk in order to lock him up at a more reasonable rate for what would be the first two years of UFA.

If you need that room that year, you can always play out the ELC and the RFA year, understanding that you'll then wind up paying Staal more like $7MM per year in the first year of UFA. Which as I think about it, could be the way they plan to go since, if I project the years correctly, Staal's first year of UFA is the same year that Rozsie comes off the books.

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07-13-2008, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by hockeyviper87 View Post
i agree.....i really think the rangers will keep rolling with a relatively new third line for the next three years seeing what the young players can do and if they do well, moving them up or keeping them and then moving on with players that dont work out and replacing them.......

what about cheraponov and anisimov......i really hope sather trades away 6 players before camp, or else it will just be too crowded
Wow Glen Sather, what a terrible job you did. I can't wait till your fired.

Serisouly guys and gals, remember two years ago right after JJ had that great season? Remember the cap space we had back then? You guys were dreaming of players to get with that cap space, so was I. I don't think ANYONE was dreaming of the core of this team being what it is today aside from Henrik Lundqvist and Marc Staal. Scott Gomez? Ahhh probably the best out of all the foward, but IMO not a true first line center. I personally don't care for players who are so one dimensional. Pass pass pass. I was thrilled when we let Nylander go because of this. Atleast Nylander had a great shot when he decided to use it.

Chris Drury? Not a guy I wanna lock up at 7 mil when I still don't have a true first line. I see the Bobby Holik thing happening all over again. He is going to be misused, misplaced (already everyone here has him going to LW, RW, C) and because of his price tag people are going to dislike this guy when the expectations aren't met.

Wade Redden? Oh jeez this season makes or breaks this cotract. I know we like to be optimistic around here but the thought of being stuck with a possible declining defenseman at that price and that long really does scare the **** outa me.

Serisouly think about it. If you were gm since that season and you had all that cap space since then, would your team look anything like the one that is being put out on opening nite? Or even that one at the start of this thread? Glen Sather has done a very poor job IMO and has for whatever reason an endless amount of screw ups he can make without ever being fired.

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07-13-2008, 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by hockeyviper87 View Post
its the fact that he doesnt add any offense......plus the fact that the rangers have young players they have drafted who can fill that spot in a year or two
As a fourth line center, he doesn't need to add any offense. I could care less about offense in my fourth line center's if the man can win FO%'s consistantly, play defense and kill penalties.

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07-13-2008, 04:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unk View Post
Staal's ELC is a three-year deal. He's too young for a two-year ELC. Thus the cap hit for 09-10 is the same as the previous two years. It's only in 10-11 when it goes up.

Plus, I don't get why some people want to just give up Betts. He's signed more cheaply than some of the other 4th liners Slats signed, and it's not like they're an improvement over him.
I like Betts also, but I think with the guys we have a lot of people want to see a 4th line this year that has more offensive bite to it. Renney is a coach who uses his 4th line more than most so I see why we would want to put more offensively gifted players out there, who can also play D too mind you. Betts is not gonna help get that done.

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07-13-2008, 04:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unk View Post
As a fourth line center, he doesn't need to add any offense. I could care less about offense in my fourth line center's if the man can win FO%'s consistantly, play defense and kill penalties.
i agree, however if he wants a million a season and the rangers have a player like him who will take .65 i would think they would go younger, more offensive and the same in all other categories

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07-13-2008, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by hockeyviper87 View Post
i agree.....i really think the rangers will keep rolling with a relatively new third line for the next three years seeing what the young players can do and if they do well, moving them up or keeping them and then moving on with players that dont work out and replacing them.......

what about cheraponov and anisimov......i really hope sather trades away 6 players before camp, or else it will just be too crowded
Well, Anisimov is already in there. As for Cherepanov, I must admit I forgot to include him - but you could sub him in for Voros, Callahan, Korpikoski, Dupont/Pyatt/Byers/Jessiman/Moore in '09-'10. Or, he could also play a year in the AHL and come in the following year when Naslund comes off the books.

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07-13-2008, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unk View Post
As a fourth line center, he doesn't need to add any offense. I could care less about offense in my fourth line center's if the man can win FO%'s consistantly, play defense and kill penalties.
What if that 4th line gets a lot of icetime like it has been the last two seasons?

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07-13-2008, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
Understood - but if you read the assumptions clause, you'll see that I have Glen & crew trying to sign him to a 4 year deal in the last year of his ELC, bumping him that year and his RFA year as a calculated risk in order to lock him up at a more reasonable rate for what would be the first two years of UFA.

If you need that room that year, you can always play out the ELC and the RFA year, understanding that you'll then wind up paying Staal more like $7MM per year in the first year of UFA. Which as I think about it, could be the way they plan to go since, if I project the years correctly, Staal's first year of UFA is the same year that Rozsie comes off the books.
drury also will need a new contract that season so the rangers will probably save some money there

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07-13-2008, 04:47 PM
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Honestly don't believe Cherepanov will ever play a minute of AHL time.

Unless he is really struggling for an extended period in the NHL (if he comes), i can't see the Rangers ever putting him in the AHL and risk him leaving and going back to Russia.

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07-13-2008, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
Understood - but if you read the assumptions clause, you'll see that I have Glen & crew trying to sign him to a 4 year deal in the last year of his ELC, bumping him that year and his RFA year as a calculated risk in order to lock him up at a more reasonable rate for what would be the first two years of UFA.

If you need that room that year, you can always play out the ELC and the RFA year, understanding that you'll then wind up paying Staal more like $7MM per year in the first year of UFA. Which as I think about it, could be the way they plan to go since, if I project the years correctly, Staal's first year of UFA is the same year that Rozsie comes off the books.
I think Staal plays through the final year of his ELC regardless of his new contract. He can sign a 4yr/12mil deal next season, but it won't come into effect until the following year.

I'd be willing to bet that if Staal continues to progress the way this season that he did last season, he'll be looking for a contract on par with that of Shea Weber's. Weber got a 3 year 13.5 mil deal despite only playing one full season in the NHL.

I'll wait to see how Dubi does this season before I determine what his worth is going to be.

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07-13-2008, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
As we watched the team acquire piece after piece last week, a lot of us were left wondering how Glen was planning on fitting all these players (and more importantly, their contracts) under the cap this year - and especially next. On a lazy Sunday afternoon I've taken a crack at figuring out how it can work. Of course, there are always variables you haven't considered like trades, injuries, players blossoming/busting, etc. But I think this shows a reasonable scenario of how the Rangers can field a team that can make the playoffs both this year and next using just the assets that are currently Rangers property, all while staying in compliance with the salary cap. (Just how FAR into the playoffs will be dependant on the development of our younger players.)

This is my best guess of how the guys who crunch the numbers in Glen's office may have mapped it out as they made the moves they did:

Player
 
2008-09
2009-10
 
Assumptions
Scott Gomez 
7,357,143
7,357,143
  
Chris Drury 
7,050,000
7,050,000
  
Markus Naslund 
4,000,000
4,000,000
  
Nikolai Zherdev 
2,500,000
4,250,000
 Signed 4 years/$17.0MM in-season '08-'09
Nigel Dawes 
1,500,000
1,500,000
 Signed 2 years/$3.0MM summer '08
Aaron Voros 
1,000,000
1,000,000
  
Pat Rissmiller 
1,000,000
 Let go summer '09
Dan Fritsche 
950,000
950,000
 Signed 2 years/$1.9MM summer '08
Fredrik Sjostrom 
850,000
 Signed 1 year/$0.85MM summer '08, let go summer '09
Artem Anisimov 
821,667
821,667
  
Brandon Dubinsky 
633,333
2,500,000
 Signed 3 years/$7.5MM in-season '08-'09
Ryan Callahan 
575,000
1,200,000
 Signed 2 years/$2.4MM summer '09
Colton Orr 
537,500
 Let go summer '09
Lauri Korpikoski 
Sent Down
900,000
 Signed 2 years/$1.8MM summer '09
Dupont/Pyatt/Byers/Jessiman/Moore 
Sent Down
850,000
  
Blair Betts 
Traded
 Traded for prospect(s)/pick(s) summer '08
Petr Prucha 
Traded
 Traded for prospect(s)/pick(s) summer '08
Ryan Hollweg 
Waived
 Waived summer '08
     
Wade Redden 
6,500,000
6,500,000
  
Michal Rozsival 
5,000,000
5,000,000
  
Dmitri Kalinin 
2,100,000
 Let go summer '09
Paul Mara 
1,950,000
 Let go summer '09
Dan Girardi 
1,550,000
1,550,000
  
Marc Staal 
826,667
3,000,000
 Signed 4 years/$12.0MM summer '09 (with one year on ELC remaining)
Bobby Sanguinetti 
Sent Down
855,000
  
Potter/Sauer 
Sent Down
846,667
  
     
Henrik Lundqvist 
6,875,000
6,875,000
  
Stephen Valiquette 
725,000
725,000
 Signed 1 year/$0.725MM summer '09
     
Jaromir Jagr 
760,000
 Buyout
     
Salary Cap 
56,700,000
59,535,000
 Cap goes up 5%
Cap Hit 
55,061,310
57,730,477
  
Cap Penalty 
700,000
   
Cap Space 
938,690
1,804,523
  

What this tells me is that we can make this work this year (fairly obviously) - but also next year as well.

It's the 3rd year that starts to get dicey in my opinion. In 2010, a lot of the guys who I assume get RFA deals in the $1MM+ range over the next two years will come up for UFA contracts and be expecting annual numbers that begin with 2s and 3s while guys currently in the minors will be looking for their first RFA deals. Does Naslund coming off the books plus cap growth provide enough room...? Honestly, I see Rozsival getting traded in the summer of '10.

Of course, like a lot of you I see the team trying to add another top 6 talent some time long before we get to the end of the '09-'10 season, but trying to figure out who that guy might be and what he would cost takes this to a whole other level of speculation. Besides, I think the team needs to be ready to play with this roster at least to start the season - because the deal we're all looking for may not be there any time soon.

Feel free to rip it apart.

And thanks to Hockey Buzz (http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=NYR) for giving me all the data to do this geeky analysis.
You are 100% dead wrong BTW. This is not what management is thinking. Did ya read Slats quote of us waiting on the Sundin situation? Where the hell do we fit a guy like Mats Sundin on this team? And what does that mean for Brandon Dubinsky? To me it seems like Slats still thinks this is a cup team and is trying to replace Jagr with someone else (Sundin). So to everyone on this new direction you all thought the team was going to take..........nope.

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07-13-2008, 05:05 PM
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You are 100% dead wrong BTW. This is not what management is thinking. Did ya read Slats quote of us waiting on the Sundin situation? Where the hell do we fit a guy like Mats Sundin on this team? And what does that mean for Brandon Dubinsky? To me it seems like Slats still thinks this is a cup team and is trying to replace Jagr with someone else (Sundin). So to everyone on this new direction you all thought the team was going to take..........nope.
The Rangers have not signed Sundin.

And there are currently only 4 players on the roster that are 30 years or older. And that includes our backup goaltender: Valiquette.

Not sure how you can say they are not going in the direction of younger, faster, and more skilled.

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07-13-2008, 05:12 PM
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The Rangers have not signed Sundin.

And there are currently only 4 players on the roster that are 30 years or older. And that includes our backup goaltender: Valiquette.

Not sure how you can say they are not going in the direction of younger, faster, and more skilled.
They are obviously waiting on him. What if he signs in NY? You can't say it's not possible. First where do we fit him under the cap? You don't think any of those younger faster guys are going to have to be demonted or traded to fit him in? Or are we gonna trade Redden and Drury?

We can sit here and wait on Sundin's decision yet we rushed Jagr out the door. Sundin who hasn't done anything for this franchise gets something that the guy who captained us to the playoffs doesn't. Seriously if he signs where are we getting younger? On the 3rd and 4th lines? You realize we are close to the cap now, with some RFA's left to sign and waiting on a guy who wants atleast 6-8 mil per. And if Sather will give Redden a NMC ya don't think he will offer the same to Mats? You make it sound like Sundin would never sign here. To me it fits with this teams history to a tee. Almost done dominating the league and want to retire in a year or two? Yeah come on down here to NY. We will take ya.

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07-13-2008, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Radek27 View Post
They are obviously waiting on him. What if he signs in NY? You can't say it's not possible. First where do we fit him under the cap? You don't think any of those younger faster guys are going to have to be demonted or traded to fit him in? Or are we gonna trade Redden and Drury?

We can sit here and wait on Sundin's decision yet we rushed Jagr out the door. Sundin who hasn't done anything for this franchise gets something that the guy who captained us to the playoffs doesn't. Seriously if he signs where are we getting younger? On the 3rd and 4th lines? You realize we are close to the cap now, with some RFA's left to sign and waiting on a guy who wants atleast 6-8 mil per. And if Sather will give Redden a NMC ya don't think he will offer the same to Mats? You make it sound like Sundin would never sign here. To me it fits with this teams history to a tee. Almost done dominating the league and want to retire in a year or two? Yeah come on down here to NY. We will take ya.


Lemme guess...

Jagr Fan boy right?


Sundin won't be in NY. Sather is waiting to hear back from Sundin the same way he is waiting on Shannahan (See: he isn't really waiting on either of them)

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07-13-2008, 05:22 PM
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Lemme guess...

Jagr Fan boy right?


Sundin won't be in NY. Sather is waiting to hear back from Sundin the same way he is waiting on Shannahan (See: he isn't really waiting on either of them)
lol funny thing is that i cant believe that people think its a possibility...there is no way we can fit him under the cap unless guys like rozy drury redden or gomez gets dealt....i think the odds are that he wont be a ranger...just a wild guess

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07-13-2008, 05:26 PM
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If the 3-5 kids who could play in the NHL this season all spend the season in the AHL, and none gets a legit shot because of the excess forwards Sather has collected this summer, I guarantee one or two of them will not be back next season, and will follow Baranka to Russia or elsewhere in Europe.

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07-13-2008, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by BrianLeetch2 View Post
lol funny thing is that i cant believe that people think its a possibility...there is no way we can fit him under the cap unless guys like rozy drury redden or gomez gets dealt....i think the odds are that he wont be a ranger...just a wild guess

Seriously dude. It's almost like some people have nothing to ***** about so they'll create scenarios just so they can lol.

I think its becoming apparent that we are heading into next season with what we currently have right now and I'm okay with that.

And to the OP, great post once again. I'm not so sure that Zherdev will accept 4.25 mill if he has the type of year I think he'll have in NY but I think you're spot on with everything else in your analysis.

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07-13-2008, 05:31 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by squishy View Post
If the 3-5 kids who could play in the NHL this season all spend the season in the AHL, and none gets a legit shot because of the excess forwards Sather has collected this summer, I guarantee one or two of them will not be back next season, and will follow Baranka to Russia or elsewhere in Europe.
Now this is a legit concern...

I think its safe to say that Prucha and Hollweg's days are numbered in NY but that still doesn't solve everything. One of Dawes or Callahan needs to be moved too IMO.

I'll be super pissed of Korpikoski lights it up in pre season and gets sent down because there is "no room" for him.

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07-13-2008, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by CFPatUSC View Post
Seriously dude. It's almost like some people have nothing to ***** about so they'll create scenarios just so they can lol.

I think its becoming apparent that we are heading into next season with what we currently have right now and I'm okay with that.

And to the OP, great post once again. I'm not so sure that Zherdev will accept 4.25 mill if he has the type of year I think he'll have in NY but I think you're spot on with everything else in your analysis.
Let me guess, your wrong.

- For me the subject of Jagr is closed. We have turned the page and have started building a new team. For us this is all that matters. We have a good goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist, good defensemen, now it is necessary to strengthen our attack, and we will be able to say that we are ready for the season.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=535711&page=2

http://www.championat.ru/hockey/article-23214.html


We are not done adding to this team, and Sundin is a player we want.

- Yes, we talked often with Mats' agent and with him, but he needs time to make his decision. We are prepared to wait, even if he ultimately turns us down.

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07-13-2008, 05:54 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Radek27 View Post
Let me guess, your wrong.

- For me the subject of Jagr is closed. We have turned the page and have started building a new team. For us this is all that matters. We have a good goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist, good defensemen, now it is necessary to strengthen our attack, and we will be able to say that we are ready for the season.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=535711&page=2

http://www.championat.ru/hockey/article-23214.html


We are not done adding to this team, and Sundin is a player we want.

- Yes, we talked often with Mats' agent and with him, but he needs time to make his decision. We are prepared to wait, even if he ultimately turns us down.
Of course Sather will be looking to improve the team via trades, that doesn't mean he will be able to. I'm sure some people will be moved, but that doesn't mean that he will get a player he wants.


and LOL if you really believe Sather is after Sundin. He said similar things about Shanny and Jagr even though it's become apparent that he wasn't seriously pursuing either of them. Even if he really wanted Sundin, how in the hell is he gonna fit him under the cap?

but if ripping Sather for moves he hasn't made yet and probably will not make makes you feel better, go ahead and keep at it.

Yes, I'm placing you on my ignore list, so if you respond, I won't see it

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Old
07-13-2008, 06:07 PM
  #25
Trxjw
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radek27 View Post
Let me guess, your wrong.

- For me the subject of Jagr is closed. We have turned the page and have started building a new team. For us this is all that matters. We have a good goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist, good defensemen, now it is necessary to strengthen our attack, and we will be able to say that we are ready for the season.

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=535711&page=2

http://www.championat.ru/hockey/article-23214.html


We are not done adding to this team, and Sundin is a player we want.

- Yes, we talked often with Mats' agent and with him, but he needs time to make his decision. We are prepared to wait, even if he ultimately turns us down.
Frankly that Sundin comment is confusing the hell out of me. Unless Slats is moving Rozsival or Sundin is coming to play here for peanuts so he can game with Naslund, I have no idea how Sundin fits into this lineup. Frankly, I don't know how he's planning to beef up our offense at all unless he's going to steal some young player away from a western conference team that is still locked up in a cheap or entry level contract.

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