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How Many CBJ Goals Scored in 08/09?

View Poll Results: How Many CBJ Goals For Next Season?
250 or more. CBJ will become a top 5 scoring team next year. 0 0%
230 to 249. CBJ will move into the top half of the scoring table. 8 11.59%
210 to 229. CBJ becomes a middle of the pack scoring team 37 53.62%
190 to 209. Improvement over last year but still not very good. 20 28.99%
Less than 190. We sure coulda used Zherdev. Chimmer hits the glass again! 4 5.80%
Voters: 69. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:04 AM
  #26
Xoggz22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BluejacketNut View Post
Sure they can play there, as can many, but that doesnt mean they'll be scoring goals
I apologize. I must have misunderstood your original post. I think most replacements on the 3rd line should be good for 8-12 goals. If I've given the impression that our 3rd liners are going to score 20 goals then that's my bad.

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:05 AM
  #27
Stretch Factor
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...and on top of everything else we'll likely be around $8mil under the cap with a clear need for more talent.

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:11 AM
  #28
BluejacketNut
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Originally Posted by Xoggz22 View Post
I apologize. I must have misunderstood your original post. I think most replacements on the 3rd line should be good for 8-12 goals. If I've given the impression that our 3rd liners are going to score 20 goals then that's my bad.
No, not at all, youre fine. Scoring is the CBJ's problem, and it doesnt really look like it's been addressed. Im just really concerned that we do not have the depth once again to compete in the NHL (in the scoring department, and that is generally what wins games...the team that puts more pucks in the net then the other)

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:23 AM
  #29
Ludicrous Speed
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Just a little note, I think some people are underestimating Umberger. If you look at his numbers everywhere he's been, he has DOMINATED. He hasn't lived up to it in the NHL though - YET. But that is mostly attributed to his role as a rookie and a third line player playing alongside of Kapanen and Scotty Upshall. You put this guy on a line with the likes of Nash and Juice and his numbers, IMO, will skyrocket. This is the risk that Howson took in giving him this role, but I think he's confident that Umberger can regain form. Howson is a ****ing psychic when it comes to this kinda stuff.

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:27 AM
  #30
BluejacketNut
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Originally Posted by biscuitbasketer743 View Post
Just a little note, I think some people are underestimating Umberger. If you look at his numbers everywhere he's been, he has DOMINATED. He hasn't lived up to it in the NHL though - YET. But that is mostly attributed to his role as a rookie and a third line player playing alongside of Kapanen and Scotty Upshall. You put this guy on a line with the likes of Nash and Juice and his numbers, IMO, will skyrocket. This is the risk that Howson took in giving him this role, but I think he's confident that Umberger can regain form. Howson is a ****ing psychic when it comes to this kinda stuff.
But your key phrase could stop at "He hasnt lived up to it in the NHL", thats where he's playing now. And now that he wont be on the 3rd line, he will start to see top line defense. The underestimating cause from the unknown, which is where he still is when playing the top center role. I hope youre right, I guess we'll see eventually because he is our #1 center right now by default

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:30 AM
  #31
Ludicrous Speed
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Originally Posted by BluejacketNut View Post
But your key phrase could stop at "He hasnt lived up to it in the NHL", thats where he's playing now. And now that he wont be on the 3rd line, he will start to see top line defense. The underestimating cause from the unknown, which is where he still is when playing the top center role. I hope youre right, I guess we'll see eventually because he is our #1 center right now by default
And that's what I mean when Howson thinks he can regain that form. He sees Umberger as ready for a breakout year. It's just like the stock market. No one knows, but you have to have that faith and reason to believe that someone will flourish.

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:39 AM
  #32
Stretch Factor
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Originally Posted by biscuitbasketer743 View Post
Just a little note, I think some people are underestimating Umberger. If you look at his numbers everywhere he's been, he has DOMINATED. He hasn't lived up to it in the NHL though - YET.

Just like Brule.

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:43 AM
  #33
BluejacketNut
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Originally Posted by biscuitbasketer743 View Post
And that's what I mean when Howson thinks he can regain that form. He sees Umberger as ready for a breakout year. It's just like the stock market. No one knows, but you have to have that faith and reason to believe that someone will flourish.
Large cap vs Small cap....obviously our investments are small cap

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Old
07-13-2008, 11:49 AM
  #34
Ludicrous Speed
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Just like Brule.
Brule hasn't even put up numbers in the NHL. Umberger has broken 50. He hasn't dominated, but he has produced. It's time for him to take the next step. The two aren't comparable in this case.

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Old
07-13-2008, 12:18 PM
  #35
jacketsgeek
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I believe that another piece of the calculation that gets over looked is that an improved defense can have an impact on our offense.

Getting it out and keeping it out of our zone will give us more opportunities to score.

Our forwards, overall, are bigger and stronger, as well. That will lead to increased puck possession and more scoring chances.

I know, I know. They still have to put it in the net but, I think we'll get more and better looks.

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Old
07-13-2008, 12:37 PM
  #36
Stretch Factor
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I agree the defense is a little better. Here's how I would compare it versus last year.

2007-8 top six
Foote Hejda
Klesla Hainsey
Russell OKT

2008-9
Commodore Hejda= a wash verus 2007
Klesla Tyutin= probably a little better than last year. I like Tyutin a lot better than Hainsey at even strength and I think he'll be OK on the PP too.
Russell OKT= should be a little better than last year
Backman= PP specialist. We didn't have this position last year so this should be an improvement. Too bad we have to pay our 7th defenseman $3.4 mil and now we can't afford a quality center like Vermette.

Even strength our defense is at least as good as last year, maybe a little better. on the PP we can't be any worse. Russell should be better based on development and who knows about Backman. I'm not convinced our transition game and puck moving ability is a whole lot better. Tyutin is supposed to be pretty good at this, but that's the only difference I see.

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Old
07-13-2008, 02:59 PM
  #37
BluejacketNut
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Lets hope, Tyutin/Backman's power play point totals were due to lack of power play ice time....total combined, 11 points 2g 9a

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Old
07-13-2008, 03:05 PM
  #38
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They'll play Backman. They can't afford not to at 3.4 million a year.

I really think Backman will be just as effective as Hainsey not that that is saying much.

Backman had 18 points last year with only averaging 2:38 seconds on the PP.

Hainsey had 32 points last year with averaging 4:28 on the PP.

That's a difference in almost 2:00 per night with the man advantage. Pretty significant.

Something else to consider with Backman is that only 5 of his 18 points came on the PP. With Hainsey 23 of his 32 points came on the PP.

This could be looked in different ways. Is Backman horrible on the PP? Did he play on 2nd unit PP teams? Is Backman really good at even strength b/c his 13 even strength points would have led our defense?

I think going into this season Backman will be our PPQB unless Russell really steps up. I think we'll see him put up similar numbers to Hainsey. In fact I think he's a Hainsey clone in terms of style of play.

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Old
07-13-2008, 03:26 PM
  #39
Stretch Factor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Shelf View Post
They'll play Backman. They can't afford not to at 3.4 million a year.

I really think Backman will be just as effective as Hainsey not that that is saying much.

Backman had 18 points last year with only averaging 2:38 seconds on the PP.

Hainsey had 32 points last year with averaging 4:28 on the PP.

That's a difference in almost 2:00 per night with the man advantage. Pretty significant.

Something else to consider with Backman is that only 5 of his 18 points came on the PP. With Hainsey 23 of his 32 points came on the PP.

This could be looked in different ways. Is Backman horrible on the PP? Did he play on 2nd unit PP teams? Is Backman really good at even strength b/c his 13 even strength points would have led our defense?

I think going into this season Backman will be our PPQB unless Russell really steps up. I think we'll see him put up similar numbers to Hainsey. In fact I think he's a Hainsey clone in terms of style of play.

I see Backman as a poor man's Mark Streit. Horrible defensively, but pretty good on the power play.

Along with the rookies, he is the biggest question mark going into the season as I see it.

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Old
07-13-2008, 04:06 PM
  #40
Renion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Shelf View Post
They'll play Backman. They can't afford not to at 3.4 million a year.

I really think Backman will be just as effective as Hainsey not that that is saying much.

Backman had 18 points last year with only averaging 2:38 seconds on the PP.

Hainsey had 32 points last year with averaging 4:28 on the PP.

That's a difference in almost 2:00 per night with the man advantage. Pretty significant.

Something else to consider with Backman is that only 5 of his 18 points came on the PP. With Hainsey 23 of his 32 points came on the PP.

This could be looked in different ways. Is Backman horrible on the PP? Did he play on 2nd unit PP teams? Is Backman really good at even strength b/c his 13 even strength points would have led our defense?

I think going into this season Backman will be our PPQB unless Russell really steps up. I think we'll see him put up similar numbers to Hainsey. In fact I think he's a Hainsey clone in terms of style of play.
Some cautionary statistics:

Even Strength:

Rangers

Backman -- 3rd in ES points with 13 (6th in ES TOI/G)

74.7 minutes until he earns a point at even strength.

Tyutin -- 4th in ES points with 13 (5th in ES TOI/G)

99.7 minutes until he earns a point at even strength.

Blue Jackets

Klesla -- 1st in ES points with 12 (1st in ES TOI/G)

120.9 minutes until he earns a point at even strength.

Hainsey -- 3rd in ES points with 8 (3rd in ES TOI/G)

161.6 minutes until he earns a point at even strength.

Power Play:

Rangers

Backman -- 5th in PP points with 5 (3rd in PP TOI/G)

33.2 minutes until he earns a point on the PP.

Tyutin -- 4th in PP points with 6 (5th in PP TOI/G)

30.2 minutes until he earns a point on the PP.

Blue Jackets

Klesla -- 3rd in PP points with 6 (*6th in PP TOI/G, 4th if you drop Wilson and Westcott)

28.8 minutes until he earns a point on the PP.

Hainsey -- 1st in PP points with 23 (2nd in PP TOI/G, but only because of Wilson)

15.2 minutes until he earns a point on the PP.

Backman and Tyutin's numbers on the PP are remarkably similar to Klesla's (and worse), and Backman seems to have been used on the second unit. His overall PP TOI is almost identical to Klesla's as well. (Incidentally, our teams had similar PP percentages.) Statistically, both do better at ES than Klesla and Hainsey. Hopefully, some part of that is due to their transition game, and not wholly because they were on a superior team.

In short, those numbers give me hope for even strength production (mostly from Backman, who, unfortunately, doesn't sound like he'll be trustworthy enough to get a lot of ES time), but his numbers, at least, don't seem to back up the idea that he's a PP wizard waiting to break out.

Maybe someone else can see something, though. I have been up all night

* When at all possible, Klesla wasn't used on the PP, the numbers suggest. Wilson, Westcott, Tarnstrom, Russell and Hainsey all had more PP TOI/G than he did. Obviously, not all of them spent as much time overall on the PP.

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Old
07-13-2008, 06:44 PM
  #41
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Nice post Renion. Good stuff.

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Old
07-13-2008, 07:19 PM
  #42
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I am going total for that position. So, a player might not get that amount, but his replacement or extra will get those goals.

Nash (45) - Umberger (20) - Huselius (25)
Modin (25) - Brassard (10) - Torres (25)
Chimera (18) - Peca (12) - Voracek (14)
Murray (12) - Malhotra (12) - Boll (8)

Hejda (2) - Klesla (8)
Commodore (2) - Tyutin (8)
OKT (0) - Backman (4)

Total - 250

subtract 20 because i am a biased fan .

Total - 230

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Old
07-13-2008, 07:29 PM
  #43
RDriesenUD
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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
We did not replace Zherdev's 27 goals "on the second line". We have Raffi or Voracek as second line RW, which I predict will produce 15-17 fewer goals than Zherdev would in that spot.

My 2 main points in all of these posts are:
1. We are not much if any better from a goal scoring prospective unless our rookies show up big time.
2. Howson said we would not be relying on our rookies to play significant roles.
who was the first line winger opp. Nash though. you cant just say that we didnt replace Zherdev cause we put his replacement on the 1st line. think of it as

Zherdev plus the 1st line rw
vs
Huselius and Modin, Voracek, or Torres.

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Old
07-14-2008, 06:23 PM
  #44
Macster
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Quick and dirty- we'll score 238 goals.

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Old
07-15-2008, 09:30 AM
  #45
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Originally Posted by mt-svk View Post
Umby played in Philla, Huselius in Calgary and Torres in Edmonton. But they will play in defensive Columbus. Their statistics will go down. So I think - maximum 209 (I hope I am mistaken).

Umberger's numbers will go up. Huselius will stay the same, we play a very similar style to Calgary, and being opposite Nash will generate at least as many chances for the Swede as he had last year.

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Old
07-15-2008, 09:52 AM
  #46
dru
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I started with Xoggz's numbers and tried to adjust them to what I think makes sense. The number I got was:

213 Goals. I think that can go up if we make a trade for some scoring at the deadline.

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Old
07-15-2008, 12:13 PM
  #47
pete goegan
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ANd speaking of Xoggz... I tried to find a roster, but that seems to have disappeared into the mists of time, so your identity remains a mystery! I had completely forgotten about that team!

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07-16-2008, 09:50 PM
  #48
Xoggz22
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ANd speaking of Xoggz... I tried to find a roster, but that seems to have disappeared into the mists of time, so your identity remains a mystery! I had completely forgotten about that team!
My secret is safe then. You'll have to go way back. I played first season and had this unfortunate thing called a real job so I didn't go back for more. I did get to play against Brian McBride when he played for Milwaukee though. I enjoyed losing every head ball.

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Old
07-17-2008, 12:44 AM
  #49
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With some luck we will average 2.7 goals per game putting us in the 210-229 range. With our defense giving up around 2.4 goals a game we will be competitive...and with some more luck make the playoffs. I say we make the first playoff round but don't expect the second round.

We are improved but still a very weak offensive team, very weak. Nash is good but trust me, he is not as good as many around here think. He is not Wayne Gretzky folks.....

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Old
07-17-2008, 04:01 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by biscuitbasketer743 View Post
And that's what I mean when Howson thinks he can regain that form. He sees Umberger as ready for a breakout year.
OR, he tried for the better player and choice in Vermette and couldn't land him. So he took Umberger.

Just sayin'...

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