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Looking Ahead to the 2009-2010 Cap Situation

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Old
07-14-2008, 09:33 AM
  #26
Pascal
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I agree with the projections mentioned but keep in mind we need to sign Price the year after and he will ask for 4-6M a year (ala Fleury). I think Bob will have to let go one of our top guys just so we can sign him. And with Sundin it'd be 2 guys let go.

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07-14-2008, 10:32 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Pascal View Post
I agree with the projections mentioned but keep in mind we need to sign Price the year after and he will ask for 4-6M a year (ala Fleury). I think Bob will have to let go one of our top guys just so we can sign him. And with Sundin it'd be 2 guys let go.
Price is still under contract for 2 more years... byt the time it gets there, Sundin will be retired and the cap will have risen a little more... granted not as much as it rose this year, but it should be up around 60 million by 10-11, when Price's next contract will begin.

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07-14-2008, 10:54 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Pascal View Post
I agree with the projections mentioned but keep in mind we need to sign Price the year after and he will ask for 4-6M a year (ala Fleury). I think Bob will have to let go one of our top guys just so we can sign him. And with Sundin it'd be 2 guys let go.
But Sundin's contract would hypotheticaly end at the same time as Price's contract, so where is the problem?

Next season, in the worst case scenario, we would have to let go ONE of Koivu, Kovy or Tanguay, and keep Sundin for that remaining season and keep everyone on the team core, besides Bouillon, Bégin and Dandy. The following season, most players would already be on contract and we'd have a big cap space with Sundin's departure, quite enough to sign the few players that will remain to be signed (Price, .Halak, Lapierre and SKost).

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07-14-2008, 10:59 AM
  #29
Marc the Habs Fan
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IF Price gets 4 M for 2010-11, it's ''only'' a 1.8 M increase over his 2.2 M cap hit on his ELC that ends in 2009-10. It's a manageable increase.

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07-14-2008, 11:07 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
IF Price gets 4 M for 2010-11, it's ''only'' a 1.8 M increase over his 2.2 M cap hit on his ELC that ends in 2009-10. It's a manageable increase.
Yeah, that seems a common misconception Marc. Some people think of a 4-5-6-7 mil contract and forget about the cap space the present contract already takes.

Like when Markov will have to be resigned, if he gets 7 mil, it seems like a big number to put on the cap, but that's actually only a 1,25 mil increase which is easily manageable. It's only a question of the GM having the priorities set and keeping those important to the core.

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07-14-2008, 07:52 PM
  #31
Quiet Robert
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Originally Posted by HABitual Fan View Post
If this thread were about the best possible line-up, then I agree with you. However if we are talking about remaining competitive in a cap world and needing to sign guys like Price and S Kostitsyn then somewhere the team will need to compromise. Remember we are talking about 2 summers from now, If we can replace other holes in the line-up, such as at center, then one of them will sadly need to go since they have big contracts, and more importantly have value. Who knows, perhaps trading a top 10 defenseman will get us the top 10 forward we are currently lacking? In two years perhaps Josh Gorges will be good enough to replace Hamrlik? We can't predict player developent but any tme you can get similar play at a fracton of the price it can only be a good thing in a salary cap.
I see what you mean, though in this case I would still think that the risk of Hamrlik or Markov's contracts handcuffing us is minimal and as such we shouldn't be too worried about them. It would be great if we were in a position where we were able to trade them to improve the team, but as it stands I think there's little risk the contracts hurt us down the road.

In any case, the four big UFAs next summer will be the biggest determining factoring how much we have for summer 2011 when Price, Halak and S.Kost come up. We may only keep 2 of 3 forwards if things are tight, we may keep all three, who knows. It depends who takes a pay cut, who wants to stay etc...

Still, at 55-56 million overall, I think that signing Price, Halak and S.Kost long term is manageable depending on how the cap looks in 2 summers.

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07-14-2008, 09:53 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
But Sundin's contract would hypotheticaly end at the same time as Price's contract, so where is the problem?

Next season, in the worst case scenario, we would have to let go ONE of Koivu, Kovy or Tanguay, and keep Sundin for that remaining season and keep everyone on the team core.
IMO, you are quite right. If we sign Sundin, Koivu won't be signed back. Especially if Sundin signs for more than a year. Personally, I think signing Sundin to a 3 year deal would be the best fit, since we do not have enough depth at center. Maxwell needs to mature in the AHL before coming up. Foresee, Maxwell and Pacioretty joining the club at the same time.

Tanguay will be a keeper I think. And Kovalev will be expendable with the rising of the Kost.Bros and Latendresse.

Basically, freeing us of Koivu and Kovalev's contracts is the key. But I wouldn't say no to Kovalev at the same price or at a discount.

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07-15-2008, 12:37 AM
  #33
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IMO, you are quite right. If we sign Sundin, Koivu won't be signed back. Especially if Sundin signs for more than a year. Personally, I think signing Sundin to a 3 year deal would be the best fit, since we do not have enough depth at center. Maxwell needs to mature in the AHL before coming up. Foresee, Maxwell and Pacioretty joining the club at the same time.

Tanguay will be a keeper I think. And Kovalev will be expendable with the rising of the Kost.Bros and Latendresse.

Basically, freeing us of Koivu and Kovalev's contracts is the key. But I wouldn't say no to Kovalev at the same price or at a discount.
Signing Sundin and letting Koivu go adds DIDDLYSQUAT to depth at the Centre position, since we would have the same number of centremen as before.

Freeing us of Kovalev's contract is some kind of "key", but you wouldn't say no to re-signing him for the price as now, thus "re-imprisoning" us with the same contract.

Tell me, sir/madam, what do you for a living? Does it require precision in any way?

Might I be in danger if I happen to buy something you personally helped make?

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07-15-2008, 02:12 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Signing Sundin and letting Koivu go adds DIDDLYSQUAT to depth at the Centre position, since we would have the same number of centremen as before.

Freeing us of Kovalev's contract is some kind of "key", but you wouldn't say no to re-signing him for the price as now, thus "re-imprisoning" us with the same contract.

Tell me, sir/madam, what do you for a living? Does it require precision in any way?

Might I be in danger if I happen to buy something you personally helped make?
I can see humor is one of your stronger qualities. Well you at least have one...I guess

I'll agree with you that for the 09-10 roster - if Sundin is signed more than a year - we will still have a depth problem at center on our top lines. But...

Sundin >> Koivu is diddlysquat...can't wonder why I can't grasp that equation.

As for Kovalev, if our young players aren't maturing or establishing themselves rapidly enough, what are you better to do? Sign Kovalev who already "fits" and that "may" be in a reasonable price range...or....venture off like many GM's did during the UFA signing period and overpaid for a player that can disrupt everything that is been established - a la Hossa.

Now here is depth for you...

This year we would have Sundin, Pleks, Koivu, Lapierre and Chipchura, so we are fine. Maxwell and White will be maturing in the AHL.

Next year we have key signings per Komisarek, Tanguay and many RFA's: Pleks, Higgins, Chipchura and Lats. We will need to free up some cap space assuming we still have Sundin - which as I stated is an upgrade over Koivu. IMHO, we won't get far with Koivu as our 1st centerman and Pleks is not a 1st centerman either. Their presence at center leaves us with well known issues in our lineup.

Now what is easier to obtain on the UFA market theses days...overpaid top 6 players? Scrupulous GM's - as Bob - are wiser.

For less money can we obtain a winger to replace Kovalev - Most unlikely

For less money can we obtain a center to replace Koivu - More probable, since it would be a 3rd line center with offensive upside.

Seeing that Koivu is to be relegated to 3rd line duties we can obtain by transaction or by UFA a 3rd line centerman that would provide us the same depth as what we would have this upcoming season:
Sundin - Pleks - TheNewGuy - Lapierre and Chipchura (the laters having a whole full season in the NHL).

Now remember that Maxwell and White will have had one full season in the AHL - if not injured. Remember also that we need to free up some salary for signings.

It comes down to:
1) Do we have Sundin for more than a year - hopefully yes to cover our gap in the 1st line center department
2) How our young guns will produce this year - this could imply Kovalev isn't needed anymore per their production
3) Who can be the most easiestly replaced between Koivu and Kovalev?

Now if Koivu is willing to stay at a bargain 2M and picks up his defensive game, I'd do it - but not long term.

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07-15-2008, 03:30 PM
  #35
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From cap management perspective, it would wonderfull blessing if your players (primarily A.Kost, S.Kost and Latendresse and to some extent Max Pac) would blossom into bona fide top line players, making it actually possible to ponder about option to let Kovalev go once his contract is up after this season. In practice, I doubt Habs will have such luxury and they probably try to fit Kovalev under cap next season. However, if Gainey ends up into situation where he have to choose between Tanguay and Kovalev, I would not be surprised if the choice would fall to Alex.

Regarding Koivu, I would assume that whether Habs sign Sundin or not, it has absolutely no affect to Koivu's future in team. I would be extremely schocked if Koivu does not retire as Hab. Especially if Briesebois is signed for two years this summer (allowing him to reach 1000 games as Hab), I would say we can trust that Gainey will remain class act and that means that Koivu stays unless Saku self wants out (something I am quite sure he won't do at this point after suffering through all those years of horrible teams)

Out of important UFAs (Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay and Komisarek), Saku has probably the MOST manageable contract in cap world.
- Taguay will be 30, the next contract will pay through very productive years while he has already had good seasons to establish his value. If he fits into Habs system, small rise can be in order
- Kovalev will be 36, with all risks associated with long term contracts signed age of 35+. Gainey either has to pay his market value in shorter deal (could be significant depending on time of signing the contract) or take the risk that something happens during the existence of the longer (3-4 year deal).
- Komisarek will get his first UFA contract. Defencemen have been paid big money lately, but hopefully Mike will accept correct comparables (excellent defensive defenceman) and not aim to elite overall money.
- Koivu will be 34, allowing him to be given long term contract, enabling him to receive increasin in pay (for first 1 or 2 years) and decrease his cap hit (through lesser pay in later years).

If Sundin is signed for two seasons, Mats-Tomas-Saku-Kyle will just roll as centers for two seasons. Sundin would be huge asset to Habs, but I would say that even after next year difference between Sundin and Koivu (as 1st line center) is probably smaller than difference between Koivu and Maxwell (as 2nd/3rd line center).

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07-15-2008, 09:15 PM
  #36
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Thanks for the interesting topic.

I would like to say that Gainey doe the exercise every year (revise it) to do that salary planning for a few years down the road.

So in essence I don't worry about it.

Mark Streit is gone for that exact reason. Gainey judged that he would cost too much down the road. He had identified what is core team of players were, and Streit wasn't part of it. He let him go so not to face a problem down the road with those core players.

He carefully plans those things. And he gets some pretty good players at a great deal (Markov at 5.7, Hamrlik at 5.5, Kovalev at 4.5, Lapierre at .688 and now Kostitsyn at 3.2).

Thanks for the topic. But again, I don't worry.

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07-15-2008, 10:47 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Noldo View Post
From cap management perspective, it would wonderfull blessing if your players (primarily A.Kost, S.Kost and Latendresse and to some extent Max Pac) would blossom into bona fide top line players, making it actually possible to ponder about option to let Kovalev go once his contract is up after this season. In practice, I doubt Habs will have such luxury and they probably try to fit Kovalev under cap next season. However, if Gainey ends up into situation where he have to choose between Tanguay and Kovalev, I would not be surprised if the choice would fall to Alex.
I agree. If it comes to a choice between Tanguay and Kovalev, the team will choose Alex. I'm 100% certain of this (bc5).

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07-15-2008, 11:13 PM
  #38
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I agree. If it comes to a choice between Tanguay and Kovalev, the team will choose Alex. I'm 100% certain of this (bc5).
Which one?

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Old
07-15-2008, 11:21 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by HABitual Fan View Post

Roman Hamrlik, MTL - NTC [full NTC until 2/1/09; partial NTC from 2/1/09 to 2/1/11; no NTC from 2/1/11 after]
Good post, I didn't like this. It's probably only Gainey being a wise man, but I'm worried it might be this what he's expecting for his team. Doesn't want to end up like Fletcher...

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07-16-2008, 12:24 AM
  #40
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Very interesting posts.

Could it be that Bob is only giving Sundin a one year deal and that is why he is so hesitant (specially after the crazy canuck offer)?...I mean because Bob knows what next year will mean in terms of the UFA and RFA he needs to re-sign.

Can we keep all our centers (including Sundin, IF he signs with us) plus our best wingers plus Komi?....it is going to be tight if the Salary cap doesn't go up. But if it goes up...let's say 5 more mill I think we can keep our cake and eat at the same time

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07-16-2008, 03:56 AM
  #41
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This has to be the best hockey thread since so long here.

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07-16-2008, 06:58 AM
  #42
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In my original post I forgot the link for Montreal's cap situation, so I added it there. Here it is also

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=MON

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Old
07-16-2008, 07:12 AM
  #43
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if kovalev has a season like last year again then I'm afraid we might lose him because he'll easily demand up to 7 mill a year, and rightfully so...

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07-16-2008, 09:23 AM
  #44
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hmmm...

We currently have roughly 7.5M in cap space.

Let's say - in respect with a potential UFA signing of YouKnowWho - we need to free up more space.

Now, first candidate to we wiped off the payroll is Dandy at 1.75M. But here is the problem, Dandy's salary will simply be transfered back in order to sign RFA O'byrne and - I admit this is awkward for me to say - UFA Brisebois.

Out of the 1,75M, 0,850M would go to O'Byrne and 0,700 would go to Brisebois. So out of Dandy's salary we are recuperating pennies - not even enough to cover the buyouts of Cullimore and Salmaleinen (around 0,800).

Someone else would have to get the axe? This time around we don't have the luxury of a Ryder or Streit. We must look lower int the salary ranks.

So, who of Begin (1M cap hit) or Kostopoulos (0,900M cap hit) could pack his bags?

Don't they become "expendable" with BigGeorge in the Habs temple? Begin and Kosto basically give energy, PK and hitting. Couldn't any of Milroy, Stewart or other prospect from Hamilton fill in if needed?

Does Begin have any trade value with his injury bug? Is Kostopoulos more worthfull?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noldo View Post
but I would say that even after next year difference between Sundin and Koivu (as 1st line center) is probably smaller than difference between Koivu and Maxwell (as 2nd/3rd line center).
You're right. But besides the point IMO. You are better off having

Sundin-Maxwell >> Koivu-Maxwell. Even if the difference between Sundin and Maxwell is greater than between Koivu-Maxwell.

A veteran centerman signing with Hamilton would be great I think. We could bring him up in case of injury because there is no way that Maxwell would be called up for a long stretch in the big league.

And I would hate to see Higgins playing center for a long stretch also.


Last edited by Beakermania*: 07-16-2008 at 10:55 AM.
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07-16-2008, 10:20 AM
  #45
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Someone else would have to get the axe?
Chipchura could go back to the farm.

You also projected O'Byrne very high IMO. He's played 33 NHL games, he has no leverage unless it's a 2-3 year deal. One a one year deal, he shouldn't make more than 675-700 K.

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07-16-2008, 02:13 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Chipchura could go back to the farm.

You also projected O'Byrne very high IMO. He's played 33 NHL games, he has no leverage unless it's a 2-3 year deal. One a one year deal, he shouldn't make more than 675-700 K.
Yeah I know...my jury is still out debating if this would be good or bad....i can defend both pov's.

Sending him down may be beneficial to put more luster on his defensive play, maybe build up more offensive upside and bring to perfection his faceoff capabilities.

Being in Hamilton NOW may help any of Maxwell, White or Stewart when in the FUTURE (next season or so) they are brought up to the big club for stints or for injury replacements. Becomes the go-to guy for our prospects.

For O'Byrne I am exactly implying that he will be signed to more than a one year deal - thus why I establish a cap hit of around 850K. I can easily see him getting the same length than Georges. At the end of their respective contracts Fischer and Mcdonagh will be knocking on the door. We will have to make some choices come that time (O'Byrne, Georges, Carle and Valentenko - the laters contracts due one year before).

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07-16-2008, 02:32 PM
  #47
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Comparable contracts will be Regehr, Phillips, Volchenkov etc...not Chara and Phaneuf. Right now the highest paid defensive dman are Hannan and McKee at 4.5. The market may dictate a 5.0+ contract, but I can't see it going too much higher than that. (Though the Commodore contract scares me. If he plays like he did 06-07, it's reasonable, but if he plays like he did in 07-08, especially in Ottawa, that is a crazy deal.)
Phillips had 1 great season before signing his contract, up till then many sens fans wanted him out of down...he was no good. He used to be a 3rd/4th dman and since being paired with Volchenkov, they have become one of the leagues best shutdown duos. Volchenkov is not at all a comparable since he signed as RFA, same with Regehr.

So the best comparable is Hannan. Since Hannan has signed, we've seen that the market has gone up significantly. You got fingers and commodores signing at 3.5m, where they would have signed for 1.5m-2m before.

Komisarek and his agent know far too well that if he were to hit the market, he could get 5.5-6m, easy. I'm willing to bet that if Komisarek hits July 1st UFA, he goes to NYI. They'll offer him a TON of money and the perspective of being home while cashing in will be too tempting for him to pass up imo.

Of course I say this without knowing the guy, but if I was in his shoes....I'd do it.

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07-16-2008, 02:37 PM
  #48
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Of course I say this without knowing the guy, but if I was in his shoes....I'd do it.
Komisarek is the guy I'm less worried about. I wasn't with Markov, so imagine Komisarek. Unless someone in the organization does something really stupid, there is no doubts in my mind that he will sign for something the both parties will like.

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07-16-2008, 02:44 PM
  #49
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Komisarek is the guy I'm less worried about. I wasn't with Markov, so imagine Komisarek. Unless someone in the organization does something really stupid, there is no doubts in my mind that he will sign for something the both parties will like.
And I would also add, before July 1st 2009, which would most likely mean a hometown discount (of a bigger or lesser degree) like many players who decide to stay with their present team (like Lecavalier).

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07-16-2008, 06:41 PM
  #50
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After the O'Byrne signing:

2009-10 Habs - cap hit guess
Price - 2,200,000.00
Halak - 775,000.00
Markov - 5,750,000.00
Hamrlik - 5,500,000.00
Komisarek - 5,000,000.00
Gorges - 1,100,000.00
O'Byrne - 941,666.00
Valentenko - 850,000.00
7th D - 500,000.00
Plekanec - 4,500,000.00
Koivu - 5,000,000.00
Chipchura - 1,000,000.00
Lapierre - 687,500.00
A. Kostitsyn - 3,250,000.00
Tanguay - 5,500,000.00
Higgins - 3,500,000.00
Latendresse - 1,250,000.00
Kovalev - 5,000,000.00
S. Kostitsyn - 816,667.00
D'Agostini - 600,000.00 (waiver eligible)
Stewart - 500,000.00
Laraque - 1,500,000.00

Total = 55,720,833.00 for 22 players - in other words, 980 K UNDER the current cap.

Blue = RFA's. Red = UFA's.


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