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Lats finally develops in a Leclair type of power forward

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Old
08-06-2008, 01:37 PM
  #276
Monctonscout
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
No Hab linemate could help Lats reach 40 goals and 75-80 points. Ryder is a far better shooter than Lats, and he maxed out at 30. Kovalev didn't reach 40. Even more incredible is your projection of 40 assists.
He's already as good a finisher as Ryder was in his 30 goal years, he just does it in different ways. He scores more goals from 20 feet in while Ryder was more of a perimiter shooter.

I said 40-35/40-75/80 was his CEILING, do you know what a ceiling is?

I said his reasonable projection, which is what is safe to assume is a 30-35 goal scorer and 60-65 point power winger, that's a pretty good and useful player at 225-230lbs and playing physical.

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08-06-2008, 01:39 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Anyone here would just bring me his number of hits over the season. Hitting doesn't mean you're a power forward. If it was the case, you'd have at least another one - Bégin - on the team.

Does he play with intensity? No.

Does he use his size to his advantage to protect the puck? No.

Does he fight? No.

Is he feared? Nope.

Yes he IS feared!!! But by Rob Dimiao only

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08-06-2008, 01:42 PM
  #278
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Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Anyone here would just bring me his number of hits over the season. Hitting doesn't mean you're a power forward. If it was the case, you'd have at least another one - Bégin - on the team.

Does he play with intensity? It'l come with experience and once he plays with offensive forwards instead of pucking dumpers like Dandenault, he has a specific role but has been missused badly last year, positive point though is that his defensive game got alot better
Does he use his size to his advantage to protect the puck? Hell yes he does, especially behind the net, he does it on multiple occasions every game, it was most noticable when he played with Chipchura because both we're doing it together, buy glasses if you didn't see it.
Does he fight? He beat the crap out of Adam Mair last year and Dennis Wideman the year before that when he needed to protect his teammates, did you ever see John Leclair or Rick Nash getting in many fights? Latendresse is no goon, he's a scoring forward in devlopment

Is he feared? sorry to burst your bubble but except for Zdeno Chara and Georges Laraque, there's not many guys in the league that are ''feared'' by anyone
you keep comparing him to playmaker who's had an excellent track record in the art of adapting very quickly to any situation, in the OHL, AHL and NHL, but right now your acting like the typical hockey fan who can't see further then the present, Habs had no choice but to keep Latendresse at 19 in the line-up after he was our leading scorer twice in the pres-season and was simply overpowering the opposition in the QJMHL. Is it so hard to figure that powerforwards take more time to adjust there game, because not only the speed of the game changes for them, the defensmens are bigger, tougher, faster and better to move from the net, the goalies are better at blocking deflected shots. get off your high horse and wait ATLEAST 2 years, then bring back the arguments you brought, cause right now there all invalid SINCE THE KID JUST TURNED 21 and he's working with one of the best coaches in the world to work on his overall skating, he's one of the few prospects we have who's able to identifie his problems, suck it up and work on them, i'd much rahter have a Latendresse then a lighting quick Grabovski who had 5 years to train hard and get stronger but never did

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08-06-2008, 01:44 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Anyone here would just bring me his number of hits over the season. Hitting doesn't mean you're a power forward. If it was the case, you'd have at least another one - Bégin - on the team.

Does he play with intensity? No.

Does he use his size to his advantage to protect the puck? No.

Does he fight? No.

Is he feared? Nope.
Begin is not 225-230lbs and does not have the Hands that Lats does. Lats has about twice the goals Begin does in about the same ice time and Lats was 20 Begin is in his prime.

The intensity thing is debatable...but intensity is not what makes a power forward...Leclair was far from an intense player, he used his size to protect the puck and score not to run guys over.

If anybody on the Habs uses their size to protect the puck it's him, the only guy that's on his level there is Kovalev. If you can't see that you are too clueless to participate in an intelligent discussion.

As far as fighting, he has 2-3 fights last year, he KOed Pratt and fought Chara in defense of Kovalev, I doubt many on the roster would the guts to do it.

As far as being feared, I'm sure d-men know when he is on the ice and are careful not to get clocked. He's put some of the biggest d-men in the NHL on their arses so they must know who he is.


Last edited by Monctonscout: 08-06-2008 at 01:49 PM.
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08-06-2008, 01:44 PM
  #280
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
He's already as good a finisher as Ryder was in his 30 goal years, he just does it in different ways. He scores more goals from 20 feet in while Ryder was more of a perimiter shooter.

I said 40-35/40-75/80 was his CEILING, do you know what a ceiling is?

I said his reasonable projection, which is what is safe to assume is a 30-35 goal scorer and 60-65 point power winger, that's a pretty good and useful player at 225-230lbs and playing physical.
Disagree. When Lats scores multiple 30 goal seasons (which he never will on the 3rd line) then maybe I will agree that he is as good of a finisher.

I know what a ceiling is, and that's the most ridiculous ceiling I have ever seen. Your safe projection is also stretching it quite a bit. 30-35 goals? No way. Not while he's on the third line, and the only way he'll get to move up is if he outplays one of the Kostitsyn's. Even if he does make one of the top 2 lines, I just don't see it in him right now. He's just too slow to play with those guys right now. If he's able to get faster, then maybe.

Lats is an experiment that no one knows which way it will go. I personally believe that this year will tell the tale. He's not that young anymore, and he's into his 3rd NHL season - he knows what the deal is. He knows what it takes to compete. If he doesn't show up this year and make a substantial improvement, he's never going to.

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08-06-2008, 01:50 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by BadHabit View Post
Disagree. When Lats scores multiple 30 goal seasons (which he never will on the 3rd line) then maybe I will agree that he is as good of a finisher.

I know what a ceiling is, and that's the most ridiculous ceiling I have ever seen. Your safe projection is also stretching it quite a bit. 30-35 goals? No way. Not while he's on the third line, and the only way he'll get to move up is if he outplays one of the Kostitsyn's. Even if he does make one of the top 2 lines, I just don't see it in him right now. He's just too slow to play with those guys right now. If he's able to get faster, then maybe.

Lats is an experiment that no one knows which way it will go. I personally believe that this year will tell the tale. He's not that young anymore, and he's into his 3rd NHL season - he knows what the deal is. He knows what it takes to compete. If he doesn't show up this year and make a substantial improvement, he's never going to.
You're wasting your time... he's to Lats what the Damned is to Kovy...

And at least the Damned has some good reasons to hype the guy.

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08-06-2008, 02:06 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by BadHabit View Post
Disagree. When Lats scores multiple 30 goal seasons (which he never will on the 3rd line) then maybe I will agree that he is as good of a finisher.

I know what a ceiling is, and that's the most ridiculous ceiling I have ever seen. Your safe projection is also stretching it quite a bit. 30-35 goals? No way. Not while he's on the third line, and the only way he'll get to move up is if he outplays one of the Kostitsyn's. Even if he does make one of the top 2 lines, I just don't see it in him right now. He's just too slow to play with those guys right now. If he's able to get faster, then maybe.

Lats is an experiment that no one knows which way it will go. I personally believe that this year will tell the tale. He's not that young anymore, and he's into his 3rd NHL season - he knows what the deal is. He knows what it takes to compete. If he doesn't show up this year and make a substantial improvement, he's never going to.
Take the time to do the math using Lats goal scoring projected over average top 6 ice time instead of 4th line and 12 minutes a game.

Then take into consideration the added PP time and having guys like Koivu Tanguay or Higgins helping your stats.

If you can't see that obviously I'mn wasting your time here.

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08-06-2008, 02:17 PM
  #283
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Take the time to do the math using Lats goal scoring projected over average top 6 ice time instead of 4th line and 12 minutes a game.

Then take into consideration the added PP time and having guys like Koivu Tanguay or Higgins helping your stats.

If you can't see that obviously I'mn wasting your time here.
Please stop stating that BS... it,s been debunked... Want me to bring back the post and show everybody you didn't even take time to actually compile those stats yourself.

Now go back admiring your Lats poster and being all sorts of naughty with it.

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08-06-2008, 02:39 PM
  #284
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Please stop stating that BS... it,s been debunked... Want me to bring back the post and show everybody you didn't even take time to actually compile those stats yourself.

Now go back admiring your Lats poster and being all sorts of naughty with it.
Here are the numbers, look them up yourself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/teams/...lit=0&type=reg

The ice time column is right there...12:15 min per game on average. The top 6 forwards had ice time from 16 to 19 minutes.

If you move up to the top 6 you get roughly 40-50% more ice time. On some teams top line guys get 21-22 minutes.

He played most of his time on the 3rd and 4th. Anybody with half a brain who watched the Habs last year knows that he was not a regular on the top 2 lines or PP.

Why is that so hard for you to grasp?


Last edited by Classic Devil: 08-06-2008 at 07:04 PM.
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08-06-2008, 02:45 PM
  #285
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Originally Posted by BadHabit View Post
Disagree. When Lats scores multiple 30 goal seasons (which he never will on the 3rd line) then maybe I will agree that he is as good of a finisher.

I know what a ceiling is, and that's the most ridiculous ceiling I have ever seen. Your safe projection is also stretching it quite a bit. 30-35 goals? No way. Not while he's on the third line, and the only way he'll get to move up is if he outplays one of the Kostitsyn's. Even if he does make one of the top 2 lines, I just don't see it in him right now. He's just too slow to play with those guys right now. If he's able to get faster, then maybe.

Lats is an experiment that no one knows which way it will go. I personally believe that this year will tell the tale. He's not that young anymore, and he's into his 3rd NHL season - he knows what the deal is. He knows what it takes to compete. If he doesn't show up this year and make a substantial improvement, he's never going to.
The thing about Lats is, he wasn't a PowerFoward in the juniors. So it takes a lot more time to develop into a NHL PF if you weren't even that type of player before.

The man is still quite young. Bertuzzi in his 3rd season before getting traded got 18pts in 52, and then added 15 in 22GP with the Nucks. That's a total of 33pts in 74GP, would you have been able to predict him having a career year of 97pts a few years later?
LeClair took 4years before really getting started in Philly, but he was playing with a certain Lindros, not Lapierre or Smolinski.
It took Cam Neely 4seasons to get started as well, and he really switched it up in his 7th season.

You want to know what all of them have in common? They all got traded around their 3rd season. Im sure there's plenty of other PF that took a number of years before developing.
Im far from believing Lats will become a player as dominant as they were during their prime. But to judge him after his 2nd season is just way too premature.

As for the Ryder comparison, if you want to be technical, Lats had 14 ES Goals while Ryder had 13 last season. The year before that, Lats and Ryder both had 11 ES Goals.
The difference is when Ryder was getting top minutes and PP/PK Time, he was able to score 18other goals. When he wasn't getting top line minutes like last season, well he had a crappier year than Lats.
Latendresse never really got the luxury of getting top minutes.
So to say he wouldn't be able to reach around 30ish Goals while playing top minutes, is also premature.

I think Lats has some good potential, but its pretty much up to him to train hard to reach his max.

I also disagree, he won't have to outplay anybody to be on top lines. I also feel like our 3 first lines will be playing quite a lot next year.
I expect our first line to stay intact, but I really don't see how Koivu-Tanguay and S.Kost can all play on the same line, I just don't see it happening. Therefore, one of Tanguay or S.Kost will be put on 3rd and in all likelihood, it'll be S.Kost. I also feel Carbo will want to put a big body on that line, so he'll go with Lats over Higgins.
Which would also in turn, make our 3rd line of Higgins-Chipper-S.Kost pretty quite respectable with 3 very good two way players.

This is what I feel the lines will look like next year and without Sundin of course.

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08-06-2008, 03:09 PM
  #286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Why is that so hard for you to grasp?
Why is it so hard to counter my arguments, instead of waiting weeks for them to disapear so you can restate your BS???

You state again that he had most of his goals and points with 3rd and 4th lines players, which is proven to be untrue. Then again, you flip it to something else, saying the points he made with top6 players would equate high numbers for high minutes. But the truth is, it wouldn't equate much more than 0,50 PPG max. And a right interpretation of his icetime with top6 vs goals scored on top 6 has him at 11 goals in 35 games. This does not translate to more than 25 goals in a full 82 games season, without counting on the fact that Lats is very streaky and nobody can say if he could keep up the pace for 82 games.

Here this might help you, it corrolates these facts. Now again, you make overstatements without checking the facts. When Lats was employed as a 3rd-4th line forward, he mostly made no more than 6 to 9 minutes of play. When he played top line minutes, he had between 13-16 minutes of play. Again, you never responded to my post about the play-by-play logs as it proved that Lats got close to half his total minutes with top line players and having only 18 points in that span (total minutes with top 6 players was close to 35 games worth total). Saying he played more game on the weak lines makes no difference, he still played half his minutes with top players.


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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
I can't believe you are still repeating this same BS even after being proven wrong...

Game 6 - 1st goal, assists Plekanec-Kostopoulos (line : 6, 8, 14, 44, 84) ES
Game 12 - 2nd goal, assists Koivu (line : 8, 11, 27, 44, 84) ES
Game 19 - 3rd goal, assists Chips, Hamr (line : 6, 28, 44, 51, 84) ES
Game 20 - 4th goal, assists Breezer, Kovy (line : 14, 27, 71, 79, 84) PP
Game 24 - 5th goal, assists Koivu, Higgy (line : 11, 21, 44, 51, 84) PP
Game 26 - 6th goal, assists Chips, Hamr (line : 25, 28, 44, 71, 84) ES
Game 26 - 7th goal, assists Hamr, Chips (line : 8, 28, 44, 73, 84) ES
Game 34 - 8th goal, assists Koivu, Higgins (line : 11, 21, 32, 79, 84) PP
Game 34 - 9th goal, assists Dandy, Lappy (line : 25, 40, 44, 51, 84) ES
Game 37 - 10th goal, assists Koivu, SKost (line : 8, 11, 74, 79, 84) ES
Game 38 - 11th goal, assists Hamr, Koivu (line : 3, 11, 44, 74, 84) ES
Game 42 - 12th goal, assist Lapierre, Streit (line : 32, 40, 79, 84) ES
Game 51 - 13th goal, assists SKost, Komi (line : 8, 40, 74, 79, 84) ES
Game 51 - 14th goal, assists Pleks, Streit (line : 11, 14, 32, 74, 79, 84) ES
Game 69 - 15th goal, assist SKost, Gorges (line : 20, 26, 51, 74, 84) ES
Game 73 - 16th goal, assists Koivu, Ryder (line : 11, 51, 73, 79, 84) ES


11 of his 16 goals, more than 2/3 were scored with Koivu, SKost, Pleks, Kovy or Higgy at his side (and on the scoresheet nonetheless).

HE SCORED ONLY 5 GOALS WITHOUT ANY OF THE TOP 6 FORWARDS. Oh and one of those 5 goals was 4 on 4 with Streit and Markov as the Dmen... with only Lapierre as the other forward.

And if you want to argue that SKost was not a top6 forward, sorry but he finished 6th for PPG ratio among all Habs forwards and most of time he was on the team he was used as a top 6 winger.

I like Lats, but stop repeating that crap, it's been totally debunked.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Jeeze you're thick.

Not 5-6 games. Did you at least check the play by play of the first 15 games? HE was with Plekanec for many many shifts. Also, those games with top players Lats averaged much more minutes than on the bottom lines. After that, he spent between 5 to 15 games with Higgy and Koivu. His "scattered" minutes on the PP account for 12% of his total minutes. 104 min out of 894 min. If you count all the shifts (ES and PP) with Koivu, Pleks, Kovy, SKost and Higgins, it adds up to more than 40% of his total minutes.

You are basing yourself on your interpretation, the same interpretation that said that SKost crapped the bed at the end of the season when he actually had 17 points in 29 games including the playoffs (0,66 ppg).

Stop interpreting and start looking at the stats.

Here this will help you :

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app?page=Play...=page&tab=gbgt

Click on each of the dates for the games, this will give you the game article, on it you will find an option for "play by play" on the upper-right corner where all the options are :

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app?gameNumbe...8&service=page

When you click on the play-by-play, it will give you this :

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreport...8/PL020003.HTM

As you will be able to see, the very first shift of the season, Lats was with Plekanec and Kostopoulos for 43 seconds. Then 23 seconds with the same line. Then another 29 seconds with the same line. But we can't really determine his total time played because the play-by-play doesn't give the time for when the shifts change. Although we can see that Lats spent all his minutes of the entire game with Pleks. That makes already 9:44 (minus scrap seconds while player change-up) out of 894 minutes with a top player as Pleks was the second highest PPG player on the team.

Same thing in game #2... all his shifts with mostly Pleks or Kovy. 10:54 total time.

Game #3 he spent most of his shifts with Smokes and Kostopoulos, with 2-3 shifts with Kovy (for about 1:30 to 2:00 minutes).

Do this for the games where he scored points with top liners (18 points). Example : game #8 against the Canes, he spent his entire minutes of the game (12:56) with Pleks AND Kovy.

Do this for every game and then come and tell me how much of the 894 minutes Lats has spent with Koivu, Kovy, Pleks, Higgins and SKost (in combination if two or more were on the same line at the same time). It is much much more than what you try to make it sound.

There are 18 games where he played for more than 14 minutes, for those games, he spent the majority of his shifts with one of the top 6 forwards. Example : games #5-6 and 7 he spent ALL his shifts with Plekanec and had a total minutes of 49:24 for those 3 games, all with a top player.

I've only counted games 1-2-3-5-6-7 and 8 and we already have 84:02 minutes of his total 894 minutes, with top 6 forwards.

And then count all the games where he had between 12 to 14 minutes (23 games) as he spent a lot of shifts from those games with one (or more) of the top 6 forwards.

Interpretation is no match for the proofs of facts and reality.
Next time, remember that I have a good memory and know where to go to repost an old argument you never even bothered to counter... you just disappeared from that thread instead.


Last edited by Ozymandias: 08-06-2008 at 03:14 PM.
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08-06-2008, 03:12 PM
  #287
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Lats has a great shot actually, hard and accurate... just one example of many, but I remember one game against the Isles two years ago when he scored a goal and the puck was in and out off the back bar so fast that the refs thought "crossbar" and play continued. Very few Habs have that kind of shot velocity, basically with Ryder gone that list would be Kovy, AKost, and Lats. He can shoot hard and high, he's actually reliable on breakways, and he's capable of good one-timers -- not qualities that are in large supply on the team. In terms of pure goal-scoring ability, he's already ahead of Higgins. The comparisons to Ryder in that department are certainly not out of line.

People also seem to forget the vision he displayed in spurts when he was paired with good players. He's got good offensive positioning, but he's actually a surprisingly good passer, too, only to display this requires linemates that can handle the puck and/or shoot, and won't simply give the puck away as soon as they have it. His time on the 4th line did wonders to help him improve his defensive ability (he'd gotten much better by the end of the season) but not so much for offensive production.

I would not be overly shocked to see Lats take over Higgins' offensive role in the near future, and Higgins take on more of a two-way role.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Next time, remember that I have a good memory and know where to go to repost an old argument you never even bothered to counter... you just disappeared from that thread instead.
I remember that argument, I think it was the first time it was brought up. You do remember that it was pointed out that if Lats scored most of his points with top-six forwards, that strengthens the point that he really should be used with them?

At even strength, his scoring rate per 60 mins is one of the better ones in the team... with a minimum of 30 games played, he's only behind the first line and Sergei. He's notably ahead of Chris Higgins and Saku Koivu. That's a simple, indisputable statistical fact.

Let's say he spent, oh, half his ice time on the fourth line and half his time on the second line. If his scoring is evenly distributed among his linemates that means he's not only one of the top five most productive Habs offensively, he's also capable of producing with anyone, including crappy linemates, which is pretty good.

If, on the other hand, virtually all his points were scored in that time he was with second-line forwards... well, that means his scoring rate (which was already one of the best of the team, remember) was nearly double during that time, which means that as a second line forward, his scoring rate was probably tops on the team. Of course, it also means his scoring rate as a fourth-line forward was equally godawful... but that would seem to suggest he would be better used with offensive players, at least if you're looking for offensive production.

Yes, it would mean he hasn't produced without good linemates... but it would also pretty much make him the most productive Hab when used with said good linemates.

That's all pretty approximate, but no matter how you cut it, Latendresse is a better scorer than most players on the team, especially when it comes to actually potting goals. It remains to be seen if he's capable of handling more ice time at this point in his development and whether his defensive game has improved... but there's just no doubt that offensively the production is already there.

(And I haven't even gotten into goal-scoring rates.)


Last edited by Beakermania*: 08-07-2008 at 11:47 AM.
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08-06-2008, 03:37 PM
  #288
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I remember that argument, I think it was the first time it was brought up. You do remember that it was pointed out that if Lats scored most of his points with top-six forwards, that strengthens the point that he really should be used with them?

At even strength, his scoring rate per 60 mins is one of the better ones in the team... with a minimum of 30 games played, he's only behind the first line and Sergei. He's notably ahead of Chris Higgins and Saku Koivu. That's a simple, indisputable statistical fact.

Let's say he spent, oh, half his ice time on the fourth line and half his time on the second line. If his scoring is evenly distributed among his linemates that means he's not only one of the top five most productive Habs offensively, he's also capable of producing with anyone, including crappy linemates, which is pretty good.

If, on the other hand, virtually all his points were scored in that time he was with second-line forwards... well, that means his scoring rate (which was already one of the best of the team, remember) was nearly double during that time, which means that as a second line forward, his scoring rate was probably tops on the team. Of course, it also means his scoring rate as a fourth-line forward was equally godawful... but that would seem to suggest he would be better used with offensive players, at least if you're looking for offensive production.

Yes, it would mean he hasn't produced without good linemates... but it would also pretty much make him the most productive Hab when used with said good linemates.

That's all pretty approximate, but no matter how you cut it, Latendresse is a better scorer than most players on the team, especially when it comes to actually potting goals. It remains to be seen if he's capable of handling more ice time at this point in his development and whether his defensive game has improved... but there's just no doubt that offensively the production is already there.

(And I haven't even gotten into goal-scoring rates.)

11 goals in 35 games is the approximate with top6 forwards. That doesn't put him ahead of either AKost, Higgins, Pleks and Kovy. Add Tanguay and Koivu to the mix and there is no place for Lats on the top 6.

For points, 18 points in 35 games is the approximate with top6 forwards. That doesn't put him ahead of either SKost, AKost, Koivu, Kovy, Tanguay, Pleks and Higgins.

That's without counting that he's much more a liability on defense than any of those players.

He's not ready for it, doesn't have the commitment to defense required for it yet, whether the production is already there or not. Some might no be patient with him to get his game around, but others are way to impatient for him to be a top line player when he's not ready. Offensive stats are not the only thing that makes up a top 6 forward.

The other poster I replied to actually argued that Lats would have PPG production prorated from his numbers, which is far away from the truth.

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08-06-2008, 03:50 PM
  #289
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
11 goals in 35 games is the approximate with top6 forwards. That doesn't put him ahead of either AKost, Higgins, Pleks and Kovy. Add Tanguay and Koivu to the mix and there is no place for Lats on the top 6.

For points, 18 points in 35 games is the approximate with top6 forwards. That doesn't put him ahead of either SKost, AKost, Koivu, Kovy, Tanguay, Pleks and Higgins.

That's without counting that he's much more a liability on defense than any of those players.

He's not ready for it, doesn't have the commitment to defense required for it yet, whether the production is already there or not. Some might no be patient with him to get his game around, but others are way to impatient for him to be a top line player when he's not ready. Offensive stats are not the only thing that makes up a top 6 forward.

The other poster I replied to actually argued that Lats would have PPG production prorated from his numbers, which is far away from the truth.
that part maybe right, but you do have to agree thought that if (example) Latendresse would play on Koivu's line next year his production would likely double, maybe even triple and all those Latendresse haters would have to shut the h*ll up, not to mention we still don't know what will happen next year when he starts his 3rd full season at only 21 and spending the whole summer working on his skating, he's moslt ywhere he should be in his devlopment and thread like this, especially since A.Kost now finished his first full productive year at 23, so Lats still has 2 years of hockey before getting 27 goals witch is by any means very realistic

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08-06-2008, 03:55 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
11 goals in 35 games is the approximate with top6 forwards. That doesn't put him ahead of either AKost, Higgins, Pleks and Kovy. Add Tanguay and Koivu to the mix and there is no place for Lats on the top 6.
11 goals in 35 games projects to 25 goals over 82 games. That's definitely top six material.

But that's only part of the story. The more interesting part, to my mind, is how he does at even strength vs. how he does on the power play.

Goals at even strength:
Alex Kovalev - 18
Chris Higgins - 15
Tomas Plekanec - 15
Andrei Kostitsyn - 14
Guillaume Latendresse - 14
Saku Koivu - 8

So Lats is one of the team's leading even-strength goal-scorers, and that is, if you count his entire season, and not just the 35 games he played with second-line forwards. If you count only those 35 games... well, look at your list, take the 11 goals he scored in those games and take out the 3 PP goals and you get 8 in 35, which projects to 19 goals over 82. In this very hypothetical scenario, he'd actually lead the team.

But let's look at something that's not hypothetical. We all know Lats didn't have the same icetime as everyone else with similar ES production, but how does that shake out? Behindthenet.ca is a fantastic site, and it's got a lot of very interesting statistics, particularly rate statistics. For example, it has these numbers for goal-scoring per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time:

Michael Ryder - 0.95
Alex Kovalev - 0.94
Guillaume Latendresse - 0.92
Tomas Plekanec - 0.90
Andrei Kostitsyn - 0.88
Chris Higgins - 0.82

The fact that he's up there on the team with goal-scoring given his icetime is quite remarkable. Of course, that's only at even-strength, and you need to factor in strength of competition, but also strength of linemates.

His power play numbers are not this good, but it's not like the Habs couldn't use him at even strength and go with someone else on the power play. And we all know the PP isn't exactly an area of weakness for Montreal.

If we identify the Habs' area of need as goal-scorers with size who can produce at even strength -- and I've had many tell me that's precisely what the Habs sorely need -- it's stupid to overlook the potential value of Latendresse. At 20 he was already demonstrably one of the team's best at that.

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08-06-2008, 04:09 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
11 goals in 35 games projects to 25 goals over 82 games. That's definitely top six material.

But that's only part of the story. The more interesting part, to my mind, is how he does at even strength vs. how he does on the power play.

Goals at even strength:
Alex Kovalev - 18
Chris Higgins - 15
Tomas Plekanec - 15
Andrei Kostitsyn - 14
Guillaume Latendresse - 14
Saku Koivu - 8

So Lats is one of the team's leading even-strength goal-scorers, and that is, if you count his entire season, and not just the 35 games he played with second-line forwards. If you count only those 35 games... well, look at your list, take the 11 goals he scored in those games and take out the 3 PP goals and you get 8 in 35, which projects to 19 goals over 82. In this very hypothetical scenario, he'd actually lead the team.

But let's look at something that's not hypothetical. We all know Lats didn't have the same icetime as everyone else with similar ES production, but how does that shake out? Behindthenet.ca is a fantastic site, and it's got a lot of very interesting statistics, particularly rate statistics. For example, it has these numbers for goal-scoring per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time:

Michael Ryder - 0.95
Alex Kovalev - 0.94
Guillaume Latendresse - 0.92
Tomas Plekanec - 0.90
Andrei Kostitsyn - 0.88
Chris Higgins - 0.82

The fact that he's up there on the team with goal-scoring given his icetime is quite remarkable. Of course, that's only at even-strength, and you need to factor in strength of competition, but also strength of linemates.

His power play numbers are not this good, but it's not like the Habs couldn't use him at even strength and go with someone else on the power play. And we all know the PP isn't exactly an area of weakness for Montreal.

If we identify the Habs' area of need as goal-scorers with size who can produce at even strength -- and I've had many tell me that's precisely what the Habs sorely need -- it's stupid to overlook the potential value of Latendresse. At 20 he was already demonstrably one of the team's best at that.

Oh, I don't argue that he doesn't....

he's still too much of a liability on defense, and given the players that are already there, I don't see us "sorely" needing him on the top 6 (BTW, that's not what we 'sorely' need, it's a big RH center). People tend to forget that Lats, when push came to shove, had a tryout on the top lines in the playoffs and failed miserably. Translating what he did on 35 games to a whole season is foolish, knowing he's inconsistent, Carbo will keep those he already has on the top 6. They all have much better overalls and can do well in many aspects of the game, whereas Lats only has what you presented as an advantage.

You really think Carbo is gonna go with Lats when the only thing he has better than the others is 0.1 goal per 60 minutes of ES ice time compared to Higgins, 0.02 better compared to Pleks and 0.04 better compared to AKost??? when all of these players have a much higher overall when it comes to all the other stats???

Sacrifice the rest of the game for 0.1 (or less) goal more per 60 minutes of ES ice time... makes a lot of sense.

Lats is not ready and won't be for a few years. He's highly inconsistent and it is one of the reasons he was relegated to the bottom 6 in a lot of games.

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08-06-2008, 04:12 PM
  #292
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
The thing about Lats is, he wasn't a PowerFoward in the juniors. So it takes a lot more time to develop into a NHL PF if you weren't even that type of player before.

The man is still quite young. Bertuzzi in his 3rd season before getting traded got 18pts in 52, and then added 15 in 22GP with the Nucks. That's a total of 33pts in 74GP, would you have been able to predict him having a career year of 97pts a few years later?
LeClair took 4years before really getting started in Philly, but he was playing with a certain Lindros, not Lapierre or Smolinski.
It took Cam Neely 4seasons to get started as well, and he really switched it up in his 7th season.

You want to know what all of them have in common? They all got traded around their 3rd season. Im sure there's plenty of other PF that took a number of years before developing.
Im far from believing Lats will become a player as dominant as they were during their prime. But to judge him after his 2nd season is just way too premature.

As for the Ryder comparison, if you want to be technical, Lats had 14 ES Goals while Ryder had 13 last season. The year before that, Lats and Ryder both had 11 ES Goals.
The difference is when Ryder was getting top minutes and PP/PK Time, he was able to score 18other goals. When he wasn't getting top line minutes like last season, well he had a crappier year than Lats.
Latendresse never really got the luxury of getting top minutes.
So to say he wouldn't be able to reach around 30ish Goals while playing top minutes, is also premature.

I think Lats has some good potential, but its pretty much up to him to train hard to reach his max.

I also disagree, he won't have to outplay anybody to be on top lines. I also feel like our 3 first lines will be playing quite a lot next year.
I expect our first line to stay intact, but I really don't see how Koivu-Tanguay and S.Kost can all play on the same line, I just don't see it happening. Therefore, one of Tanguay or S.Kost will be put on 3rd and in all likelihood, it'll be S.Kost. I also feel Carbo will want to put a big body on that line, so he'll go with Lats over Higgins.
Which would also in turn, make our 3rd line of Higgins-Chipper-S.Kost pretty quite respectable with 3 very good two way players.

This is what I feel the lines will look like next year and without Sundin of course.
1) I have a hard time believing that Lats has a comparible "potential level" to the likes of Bertuzzi, LeClair, and Neely at the same time in their careers - barring stats. You can't really compare "potential" by spouting stats... every player is in a different situation with different linemates and different ice time. The only real way to compare them is to have watched them develop their core skills - skating, stickhandling, passing, shooting, etc. Having seen these players, and knowing that they all are great NHL'ers, I think Lats has a long way to go.

2) I'm not judging him after his second season, I've said my peace about how I think he is as a player right now, and I believe that this year will be a make or break year for him. How can I tell? Well, if he doesn't show a marked improvement after his third year in the league, why should I believe that he is going to get a lot better down the road in a few years? He should show a good deal of improvement this year if he is to be a true top 6 forward someday. If he only shows a marginal increase in his abilities, it just proves to me that he's close to topping out his potential. As I said before, he knows what the league is all about and what it takes to be competitive. I'm not expecting him to be LeClair this year, but he'd better prove to me that he's not slacking off either.

3) I'm sorry, I don't follow your logic with the Ryder comparison. You say that he had a crappier year than Lats when he didn't get top line minutes. Last year was the year that Ryder didn't get top line minutes - he played an average of 13:14 per game as opposed to Lats 12:15 per game. Now, Ryder got 31 points as opposed to Lats 27 points - and Lats played 3 more games than Ryder did. So, I'm not sure how you think Ryder has a worse year than Lats did. Mind you we don't hold Lats to the same expectations as Ryder - but all things being equal, icetime and line assignments, (I'd wager that Lats had almost as much time on the top lines that Ryder did last year) Ryder had more points than Lats.

4) Putting Lats on one of the top lines in place of S. Kost is a waste of space in my opinion. You'd have to be really confused to think that Lats is a better fit on that line over someone who is a skilled player and fast - just because Lats is a "big body presence". Remember, Lats doesn't use his body or get in front of the net very often. I also don't think that he's shown enough finishing abilities to be put there - contrary to popular belief.

Sorry, that's just how I see it. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

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08-06-2008, 04:15 PM
  #293
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that part maybe right, but you do have to agree thought that if (example) Latendresse would play on Koivu's line next year his production would likely double, maybe even triple and all those Latendresse haters would have to shut the h*ll up, not to mention we still don't know what will happen next year when he starts his 3rd full season at only 21 and spending the whole summer working on his skating, he's moslt ywhere he should be in his devlopment and thread like this, especially since A.Kost now finished his first full productive year at 23, so Lats still has 2 years of hockey before getting 27 goals witch is by any means very realistic
The problem for Lats is that he's no way near Kovy, Higgins, Pleks, Koivu, AKost, SKost and Tanguay in terms of talent and overall game, and will always have less icetime than all these players. As long as these players are on the team, Lats is going nowhere and will have to prove he can create his own game, which he is unable to. All the other players on this list have shown that they can create things on their own and have all also shown to be much more responsible defensively.

I would like for Lats to have his chance, but it's not the time yet and his fanboys should pipedown.

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08-06-2008, 04:22 PM
  #294
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Why is it so hard to counter my arguments, instead of waiting weeks for them to disapear so you can restate your BS???

You state again that he had most of his goals and points with 3rd and 4th lines players, which is proven to be untrue. Then again, you flip it to something else, saying the points he made with top6 players would equate high numbers for high minutes. But the truth is, it wouldn't equate much more than 0,50 PPG max. And a right interpretation of his icetime with top6 vs goals scored on top 6 has him at 11 goals in 35 games. This does not translate to more than 25 goals in a full 82 games season, without counting on the fact that Lats is very streaky and nobody can say if he could keep up the pace for 82 games.

Here this might help you, it corrolates these facts. Now again, you make overstatements without checking the facts. When Lats was employed as a 3rd-4th line forward, he mostly made no more than 6 to 9 minutes of play. When he played top line minutes, he had between 13-16 minutes of play. Again, you never responded to my post about the play-by-play logs as it proved that Lats got close to half his total minutes with top line players and having only 18 points in that span (total minutes with top 6 players was close to 35 games worth total). Saying he played more game on the weak lines makes no difference, he still played half his minutes with top players.








Next time, remember that I have a good memory and know where to go to repost an old argument you never even bothered to counter... you just disappeared from that thread instead.
How does that prove he wasn't playing 12 minutes a game?

Man you're thick!

Just because he got points with skilled players when he got some shifts there...which was by far the minority...doesn't mean he played most of the year with those guys.

He got a fair bit of points with S.Kost around midseason, S.Kost was playing on a line with Lats and Smolinski. They were a 3rd or 4th line depending on matchups that night.

He had points with Koivu and others but he did not play with them for any extended period of time, if you had half a clue you'd know that he played 3rd or 4th line with Lapierre or Smolinski at center for about 85-90% of his shifts.

If anything your data proves that Lats could be a lot more productive if he was with skill guys every shift instead of here and there when somebody is hurt or in the box.

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08-06-2008, 04:24 PM
  #295
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
The problem for Lats is that he's no way near Kovy, Higgins, Pleks, Koivu, AKost, SKost and Tanguay in terms of talent and overall game, and will always have less icetime than all these players. As long as these players are on the team, Lats is going nowhere and will have to prove he can create his own game, which he is unable to. All the other players on this list have shown that they can create things on their own and have all also shown to be much more responsible defensively.

I would like for Lats to have his chance, but it's not the time yet and his fanboys should pipedown.
WOW!!! Someone that gets it! Agree 100%

Why is it so simple to people like us, but so illogical to people like them? I don't get it - it's very cut and dried to me.

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08-06-2008, 04:45 PM
  #296
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How does that prove he wasn't playing 12 minutes a game?

Man you're thick!

Just because he got points with skilled players when he got some shifts there...which was by far the minority...doesn't mean he played most of the year with those guys.

He got a fair bit of points with S.Kost around midseason, S.Kost was playing on a line with Lats and Smolinski. They were a 3rd or 4th line depending on matchups that night.

He had points with Koivu and others but he did not play with them for any extended period of time, if you had half a clue you'd know that he played 3rd or 4th line with Lapierre or Smolinski at center for about 85-90% of his shifts.

If anything your data proves that Lats could be a lot more productive if he was with skill guys every shift instead of here and there when somebody is hurt or in the box.

Here you go again with the same BS.... do yourself a favor and go check his shifts with the play-by-play log... he spent more than 40% of his entire minutes with top6 players. Funny how you talk about having half a clue, when I actually provided you with the tools necessary to prove your point with facts, but you haven't done so, for the simple reason that the facts show Lats played way more than 10-15% of his total icetime with top 6 players. 18 games where he played for more than 14 minutes, 23 games he played between 12 and 14 minutes. I hope (here's me crossing all my fingers at the same time) you can understand that Lats played top minutes but didn't play PP or PK and is the reason he didn't go over 12 to 16 minutes when playing with top 6 players, but don't let logic hit you on the way out. The games where Lats was relegated to 3rd and 4th line, he played around 6 to 10 minutes. This alone proves you wrong, proves that you are the one without a clue and the one who wishes to remain so.

If anything, my data proves that 1- Lats had 2/3 of his points with a top 6 player 2- Those 18 points were done, put into an average of 14-15 minutes on top lines, over the span of 35 games 3- Thus proving that he wouldn't be more than a 0,50 ppg player on those top lines.


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WOW!!! Someone that gets it! Agree 100%

Why is it so simple to people like us, but so illogical to people like them? I don't get it - it's very cut and dried to me.

Fanatism will do that to some people. Or sometimes, it's just plain ignorance and no will to inform one's self.


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08-06-2008, 05:03 PM
  #297
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
The problem for Lats is that he's no way near Kovy, Higgins, Pleks, Koivu, AKost, SKost and Tanguay in terms of talent and overall game, and will always have less icetime than all these players. As long as these players are on the team, Lats is going nowhere and will have to prove he can create his own game, which he is unable to. All the other players on this list have shown that they can create things on their own and have all also shown to be much more responsible defensively.

I would like for Lats to have his chance, but it's not the time yet and his fanboys should pipedown.
If you put line with Tanguay, Koivu and S.Kost, it would suck because there's no one to put it in, player like Latendresse and Pacioretty will become of a great value to us. We have the talent, we need the size and strengh that scorers touch that Latendresse will bring one day, but as previously said numerous times before, power forwards take a long time to adjust, it's not a myth, it's a fact. Why can't he be compared to him instead of Sergei Kostitsyn who's always been a special player when it comes to adapting quickly, it's not fair. Point said, we desperatly need an offensive center for the 3rd line, we have way too much depth for only 2 offensive lines now

edit: oh and i forgot to add, we do you keep shoving in our faces that Latendresse had most of his points with top 6 players, it just proves our point even more that he should play with top 6 players instead of the likes of Lappierre and Dandenault


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08-06-2008, 05:09 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post
If you put line with Tanguay, Koivu and S.Kost, it would suck because there's no one to put it in, player like Latendresse and Pacioretty will become of a great value to us. We have the talent, we need the size and strengh that scorers touch that Latendresse will bring one day, but as previously said numerous times before, power forwards take a long time to adjust, it's not a myth, it's a fact. Why can't he be compared to him instead of Sergei Kostitsyn who's always been a special player when it comes to adapting quickly, it's not fair. Point said, we desperatly need an offensive center for the 3rd line, we have way too much depth for only 2 offensive lines now

edith and i forgot to add, we do you keep shoving in our faces that Latendresse had most of his points with top 6 players, it just proves our point even more that he should play with top 6 players instead of the likes of Lappierre and Dandenault

This I agree with. But the first part is just convulated. If we don't get another center, as the team is right now, the 3rd line will be Lats-Chips-SKost, and the other line instead of Tanguay-Koivu-SKost (which is odd to say as Higgins would be there before SKost) would be Tanguay-Koivu-Higgins. Higgins would be much better suited for that line.


For the edit... Notice that I always couple these stats with the fact he cumulated for about 35 games of icetime with top 6 players... making him less productive than the rest of the top 6, albeit he didn't get much PP but wasn't what one could call a force on the PP either, because his positional game isn't good and is also one of the reasons he was relegated to 3rd and 4th line time.


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08-06-2008, 05:54 PM
  #299
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Why is it so simple to people like us, but so illogical to people like them? I don't get it - it's very cut and dried to me.
Because it's patently untrue. His game may be "nowhere near" Kovalev or Tanguay, who are both elite players, and comparing him to a center like Koivu or Plekanec makes little sense, but the distance between him and the other LWs ahead of him in the depth chart is far less than some people might have you believe.

Prior to last season, Latendresse had actually "shown" far more than Andrei Kostitsyn had. Andrei was due, and had a terrific breakout season, but a closer look shows that Latendresse's goal-scoring ability certainly isn't far behind if scoring rates are to be believed. (And here's a fun fact: Lats still has more career NHL goals than Andrei Kostitsyn.) Frankly, right now Latendresse looks an awful lot like Andrei did before his breakout season, only with more NHL experience. I think Andrei is notable because he has been more productive as a NHLer than he ever has been as an AHLer -- he is the kind of player that really benefits from having skilled linemates. Latendresse, IMO, is much the same.

Then there's Higgins. To one who isn't blinded by pure counting stats, Latendresse is statistically already as good a scorer as Higgins is, if not better -- and he is significantly younger. Qualitatively, he would look that way as well. He may never be as good a two-way player as Higgins is, but it's a foregone conclusion that he'll become a better offensive player, if he isn't already.

I would not be surprised at all to see Latendresse gradually assume Higgins' scoring responsibilities, and Higgins made into the anchor of a killer two-way line.

The problem the Habs have right now is that they're completely stacked at LW. It's ridiculous to have a young scorer of Lats' ability playing on the fourth line or, worse, benched in favor of a grinder like Begin. Someone has to be moved to make room, whether it be Higgins or Tanguay moved to center, Lats or AKost moved to RW, or something else.

What I also don't get Lats can seemingly do no right. If he scores from the perimeter he gets blamed for not driving the net. But when he scores a last-minute, game-tying goal where he's on the blue paint practically straddling the goalie, he gets blamed for potting garbage goals (true story).

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08-06-2008, 06:39 PM
  #300
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Prior to last season, Latendresse had actually "shown" far more than Andrei Kostitsyn had. Andrei was due, and had a terrific breakout season, but a closer look shows that Latendresse's goal-scoring ability certainly isn't far behind if scoring rates are to be believed. (And here's a fun fact: Lats still has more career NHL goals than Andrei Kostitsyn.) Frankly, right now Latendresse looks an awful lot like Andrei did before his breakout season, only with more NHL experience. I think Andrei is notable because he has been more productive as a NHLer than he ever has been as an AHLer -- he is the kind of player that really benefits from having skilled linemates. Latendresse, IMO, is much the same.
Of course he did, Andrei had only played 2 years of north american hockey where as Lats played it his whole life, to bring that up as an argument is just useless.

Of course Lats has more career goals than Andrei, he's played 41 more career nhl games and yet only has only 3 more goals than Andrei.

Again I don't know what you're trying to get at with those stats.

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Then there's Higgins. To one who isn't blinded by pure counting stats, Latendresse is statistically already as good a scorer as Higgins is, if not better -- and he is significantly younger. Qualitatively, he would look that way as well. He may never be as good a two-way player as Higgins is, but it's a foregone conclusion that he'll become a better offensive player, if he isn't already.
How is that possible? Latendresse in two years has 32 goals where as Higgins has 74 in three years, to put things into perspective, Lats needs to score 42 goals to match Higgins' three year total.

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