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Old
07-20-2008, 01:17 PM
  #1
OceanAveOiler
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What to do about Garon

Interesting,I agree we need to act now.


http://www.sportsnet.ca/thewire/hock...k_up_garon_no/

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07-20-2008, 05:28 PM
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Ragss
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I think we can lock him up if we over pay him (in the 4.5 range maybe) but I am dubious of his ability to maintain his current ability for a long term contract.

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07-20-2008, 06:29 PM
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okgooil
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I hope Lowe extends him, Maybe I am to optimistic without even having watched this team play, but I actually hope Lowe extends both Garon and Cole before the season starts, then forgets about UFA next off season.

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07-20-2008, 06:32 PM
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SK13
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Extend him. Playing it safe is on oxymoron in these situations, the teams lose their player 90% of the time. Smyth, Campbell, Briere, Drury, etc - some of the best examples.

I think we could probably swing $3.5 at the moment for a three year deal at the moment. Do it up, Lowe.

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07-20-2008, 06:54 PM
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The Forechecker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Playing it safe is on oxymoron in these situations, the teams lose their player 90% of the time. Smyth, Campbell, Briere, Drury, etc - some of the best examples.
Do they? 90% huh.

Please dont make up stats. Sorry but you are out to lunch on this one. Back it up....didnt think so.

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07-20-2008, 06:57 PM
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okgooil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by In Lowe I Trust View Post
Do they? 90% huh.

Please dont make up stats. Sorry but you are out to lunch on this one. Back it up....didnt think so.
Well recent trends seem to show that teams end up paying more by not signing players. The rising cap ect... I am not sure about losing them 90% of the time, but ending up in a worse situation 90% of the time seems about right.

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07-20-2008, 06:57 PM
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I disagree; make sure he's for real before you open the vault. What's the worse that can happen? he plays like an all-star and then decides to test free agency. That means the Oilers end up making the playoffs (since we have an all-star goalie) and then, next summer, enter the UFA-season with both Garon and Roloson's contracts off the books.

On the flip side, you sign him and he flops and then you end up with another albatross-goalie contract. . .which is what a lot of people consider Roloson's to have been for the last two years.

Goaltending is a pretty easy position to fill. DET won the Cup after picking Osgood off the scrap-heap. Unless you have a Brodeur, Luongo or Giguere I just don't see how it makes sense to commit a huge portion of your budget to that position. There's always a Legace/Garon/Thomas out there somewhere.

Heck, we could sign Emery next year. . .

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07-20-2008, 07:05 PM
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The Forechecker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by okgooil View Post
Well recent trends seem to show that teams end up paying more by not signing players. The rising cap ect... I am not sure about losing them 90% of the time, but ending up in a worse situation 90% of the time seems about right.
Well in many situations you may... in the short term, end up "letting a player go" instead of giving him some silly amount of money, but that money goes to other players and in many instances the money is better spent. See ryan smyth .

Sorry I just hate when people throw made up percentiles around as fact. In this case there are far to many intangibles to even determine said percent, what is "losing" your player? Not throwing him some ridiculous amount of money handicapping your team for years? Paying players for past skill? Hardly a loss IMO.

Anyways, I like Garon and would like to see him signed for 3 more years if the price is right. Goalies are not hard to find nowadays so Lowe has some leverage, but IMHO Garon is the guy for this team.

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07-20-2008, 07:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by okgooil View Post
I hope Lowe extends him, Maybe I am to optimistic without even having watched this team play, but I actually hope Lowe extends both Garon and Cole before the season starts, then forgets about UFA next off season.
Let's let Erik Cole play it out before extending him.

I think if he plays well, he is the only player I feel Lowe will have trouble re-signing.

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07-20-2008, 07:27 PM
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What's the hurry? If Garon is great, then our team will probably be very good and it will entice him to stay. If he isn't that good, well then we'll be thankful we didnt resign him. Best option is to take the wait and see approach. Goaltending jobs are pretty limited, if he signs somewhere else, oh well.

We can't resign everyone, because if this team happens to suck, then we really will be in big trouble. We need a little bit of flexibility.

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07-20-2008, 07:36 PM
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This guy is legit. The real deal. Ya rolie did his thing for us
back when we made it to the final and can still play a really
good game every once in awhile but he's not a number one
goaltender. Garon can steal a game for you. I think that this
guy has to the potential to be nothing less than a Vezina
contender in the near future. We need too lock em' up. I
personally don't think he'd ask for too much either.

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07-21-2008, 01:33 AM
  #12
Ted Saskin
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1 year extension at 3.3M to prove himself.

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07-21-2008, 01:38 AM
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Aequitas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OilElite View Post
This guy is legit. The real deal. Ya rolie did his thing for us
back when we made it to the final and can still play a really
good game every once in awhile but he's not a number one
goaltender. Garon can steal a game for you. I think that this
guy has to the potential to be nothing less than a Vezina
contender in the near future. We need too lock em' up. I
personally don't think he'd ask for too much either.
This is the same type of talk roloson was getting just before he signed a 3 year contract that now looks terrible. Honestly another year won't hurt we might end up paying more for him but at least we will be sure we are getting our moneys worth.

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07-21-2008, 09:11 AM
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rigger
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Give him half the season.

If he proves himself then throw a 4-5 year contract at him. Average of 4.5 per year, obviously a front loaded contract. If he's bad then keep him as a back up for 1.5 per year.

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07-21-2008, 09:14 AM
  #15
SK13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by In Lowe I Trust View Post
Do they? 90% huh.

Please dont make up stats. Sorry but you are out to lunch on this one. Back it up....didnt think so.
Yes, I was trying to trump that as a real stat. It couldn't have been hyperbole, it was a pure raw statistical statement.

Have a cookie.

Quote:
Well in many situations you may... in the short term, end up "letting a player go" instead of giving him some silly amount of money, but that money goes to other players and in many instances the money is better spent. See ryan smyth .
Ryan Smyth > Sheldon Souray, and I'm a big Sheldon mark.

The money was not better spent, we just got a pretty damn good return on a rental.

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07-21-2008, 09:30 AM
  #16
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Lowe is in a tough situation with Garon.

I don't think Garon has shown enough over a long enough period of time to be convincing one way or the other. Add into that, he has a whopping 11 minutes of playoff hockey under his belt so he is a complete unknown for the post season.

The last time Lowe was in this position he made the call and was pro-active in resigning his guy, needless to say two years into the extension everyone had forgotten about the euphoria of the signing and couldn't wait for the guy to be moved along...that guy was Tommy Salo. Who, I might add, had a more proven track record than Garon does now.

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07-21-2008, 09:37 AM
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SK13
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Quote:
The last time Lowe was in this position he made the call and was pro-active in resigning his guy, needless to say two years into the extension everyone had forgotten about the euphoria of the signing and couldn't wait for the guy to be moved along...that guy was Tommy Salo. Who, I might add, had a more proven track record than Garon does now.
And eventually landed us Tom Gilbert...

Not exactly a horror story.

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07-21-2008, 09:42 AM
  #18
copperandblue
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
And eventually landed us Tom Gilbert...

Not exactly a horror story.
At the time it most certainly was a horro story and for as good and promising as Gilbert is, it took four years for that trade to pay off.

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Old
07-21-2008, 09:47 AM
  #19
Lowe in Oil
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Let's compare 3 french-canadian goaltenders junior careers that played in the QMJHL

Mathieu Garon Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 2 #44 overall 1996 NHL Entry Draft

1995-96 Victoriaville Tigres QMJHL 51GP 18W 27L 0T 1SO 2709min 189GA 4.19GAA 1321S 0.875%

1996-97 Victoriaville Tigres QMJHL 53 29 18 3 6 3026 148 2.94 1356 0.902

1997-98 Victoriaville Tigres QMJHL 47 27 18 2 5 2802 125 2.68 1243 0.909


Jose Theodore Selected by Montreal Canadiens round 2 #44 overall 1994 NHL Entry Draft

1993-94 St. Jean Lynx QMJHL 57gp 20W 29L 6T 0SO 3225min 194GA 3.61GAA 0SVS 0.000% (???)

1994-95 St. Jean Lynx QMJHL 15 5 8 1 0 900 72 4.80

1994-95 Hull Olympiques QMJHL 43 27 14 1 5 2448 121 2.97

1995-96 Hull Olympiques QMJHL 48 33 11 2 0 2807 158 3.38 1262 0.889


Roberto Luongo Selected by New York Islanders round 1 #4 overall 1997 NHL Entry Draft

1995-96 Val d'Or Foreurs QMJHL 23GP 6W 11L 4T 0SO 1199min 74GA 3.70GAA 534SVS 0.878%

1996-97 Val d'Or Foreurs QMJHL 60 32 21 2 2 3305 171 3.10 1571 0.902

1997-98 Val d'Or Foreurs QMJHL 54 27 20 5 7 3046 157 3.09 1390 0.899

1998-99 Acadie-Bathurst Titan QMJHL 22 14 7 1 0 1342 74 3.31 690 0.903


Three similar careers, but just two of them won the Vezina.

Garon, selected in the 2nd round in '96. Went from 4+GAA to 2.94 to 2.68. A clear progression on his part. He played 11 games with the Canadiens in 2000-01, he had a 2.44GAA and a .897%
During the lockout, he played in the AHL with the Manchester Monarchs and had a 32-14-4 record with a 2.12GAA and a .927%

Theodore, also selected in the 2nd round and also 44th overall, did not have as good a junior career as Garon did. He had a GAA under 3.00 just once in his career (2.97 in 94-95). His first year in the AHL his numbers were ordinary(12-12-0 3.55GAA .902%). But his first year with the Canadiens, let's just say they didn't miss Roy.

Luongo, selected 4th overall in '97, never had a year in the Q with a GAA under 3.00 (his best year 3.09) and his best sv% 0.903. His first year in the AHL he did well, but also played in the NHL and apparently he did not do as well as expected so he got traded to Florida where he went on to have a stellar career.


Out of the three goaltenders, Garon had the best career until they got to the NHL. Montreal even went on to use a 2nd round pick on him when they already had Theodore in the system. You don't do that if you don't think that he might be better than the guy you already have. Luongo and Garon played against eachother in the Q and it has been said that Garon was thought to be the guy to go on and have a better career (heard it on Sportsnet).
Out of these three guys, the only one that had not been given a legitimate chance to succeed is Garon. Drafted by Montreal when the had Theodore. So they traded him to LA with a 3rd rounder for Huet and Bonk. In LA, he had a record of 31-26-3 but they gave up on him since they have a nice prospect in the minors. \

Quote:
"At 6-foot-2 and 187 pounds, the Canadiens figure Garon's the ideal size to confound shooters. And, for a big man, Garon is incredibly mobile. He has quick feet and hands, along with good reflexes. Still, he struggled early this season with a young team in front of him. He found his raw talent, enough to get by in junior, could only take him so far in the pros. And with Theodore back in the minors, Garon hasn't seen as much playing time as he'd like." (Herb Zurkowsky, The Hockey News Future Watch 1999)
Quote:
"Garon finally made it to the NHL this season - his third as a pro - although it took a hand injury to veteran Jeff Hackett to open the door. Garon hasn't played with Montreal as often as he'd like, which has led to some inconsistency. But he also displayed some potential, recording a pair of shutouts against the Thrashers at Atlanta. Garon's main asset is his quickness. He also has a good glove hand. At 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, he can cover a lot of net, but needs to use his size more by remaining on his feet. He also must focus better and not get rattled after allowing bad goals." (Herb Zurkowsky, The Hockey News Future Watch 2001)
Quote:
"The young netminder showed flashes of brilliance in his big-league baptism in 2000-01. Garon was excellent in his third pro season in the AHL last year and is confident in his ability to take the next step to the NHL. All he needs now is a trade with the big club to open up a roster spot. He has just about all the fundamentals along with great size and reflexes." (The Sports Forecaster 2001-02, p. 75)

All in all, Garon can be a dominant goaltender but has yet to be given a real chance to perform. He had a winning record with a bad team in LA a few years ago. With the Oilers this year, he should shine.

Sign him ASAP Lowe!

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07-21-2008, 10:17 AM
  #20
The Forechecker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Ryan Smyth > Sheldon Souray, and I'm a big Sheldon mark.

The money was not better spent, we just got a pretty damn good return on a rental.

Smyth>Souray is your opinion. The fact we havent really seen Sheldon play as an Oiler says a lot about your call on this one.

Anyways way to make a generalized statement about the NHL as a whole then back it up with one situation of your choice. Smyth being released is IMO better then signing him for more then he is worth, which the avs did. Who we got after that doesnt matter as every situation is different with every team. In this case you are saying we took the money from Smyth and got Souray, that may be true but we may have got Souray even if we did, in fact sign Smitty.

There is a bigger risk of a Roli repeat then there is the risk of not finding a goalie...they are everywhere.

I hear what you are saying and if it was a D or forward I would agree, but there are too many Goaltenders floating around to offer the world to one that is only half proven.

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07-21-2008, 10:24 AM
  #21
Agent Zero
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I disagree; make sure he's for real before you open the vault. What's the worse that can happen? he plays like an all-star and then decides to test free agency. That means the Oilers end up making the playoffs (since we have an all-star goalie) and then, next summer, enter the UFA-season with both Garon and Roloson's contracts off the books.

On the flip side, you sign him and he flops and then you end up with another albatross-goalie contract. . .which is what a lot of people consider Roloson's to have been for the last two years.

Goaltending is a pretty easy position to fill. DET won the Cup after picking Osgood off the scrap-heap. Unless you have a Brodeur, Luongo or Giguere I just don't see how it makes sense to commit a huge portion of your budget to that position. There's always a Legace/Garon/Thomas out there somewhere.

Heck, we could sign Emery next year. . .
Also Halak could be had in a trade.

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07-21-2008, 10:42 AM
  #22
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Hopefully Garon doesn't pull a Roman Turek. Play hot for the first half of the season, sign a big contract, and then tank from that point on.

He's also getting kinda up there in the age, just like Roli when we signed him to a 3-year contract. Ideally, I would like the team to pick up a younger french Canadian goalie.

WG

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07-21-2008, 11:25 AM
  #23
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Oops my bad... I thought Garon was in his mid-30s.... he's only 30 right now. He be a good signing for about $3-4M a season.

WG

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Old
07-21-2008, 12:02 PM
  #24
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I've seen enough of Garon to know he's the real deal.

If we can lock him up in the low 3's I would be happy.

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07-21-2008, 12:25 PM
  #25
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If Garon would've remained healthy for the entire season, he would have received my vote as the team MVP for the year.

He had a couple of shakey starts ... what goalie doesn't?

He stole several games for us, and outplayed Luongo on 2 occasions that I remember. He was better than Kiprusoff statistically.

If he continues his high calibre of play for 20 starts or so, look to extend him for 5 years. Hopefully he'll take a bit of a discount in order to play for a franchise where he would clearly be the number one goalie for the foreseeable future.

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