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Old
07-23-2008, 02:00 AM
  #26
okgooil
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That's an interesting point. I've always thought that with a more team oriented sport like hockey/football it was the overall comparative strength/lack of weaknesses by each line that made a playoff team a winner. Call it overall balance. I have a pet theory that it's the 3rd/4th lines that are the real differentiators ... or course, I can't prove it.

The first lines rarely get much better, but the role players seem to really step it up on championship teams. And it's very hard to hide a weak line/player over a 7 game series.
well it depends, I think both can be true, I think you get in trouble when you start to think one must be true over the other. Simply put, you need to score more goals than the other team, if you win 3-2 and Crosby gets a hat trick, it is the same as if you get 3 goals from three differnt players on your fourth line. you need to build a team that will out score the other team.

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07-23-2008, 02:02 AM
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Originally Posted by MrOiler View Post
That's an interesting point. I've always thought that with a more team oriented sport like hockey/football it was the overall comparative strength/lack of weaknesses by each line that made a playoff team a winner. Call it overall balance. I have a pet theory that it's the 3rd/4th lines that are the real differentiators ... or course, I can't prove it.

The first lines rarely get much better, but the role players seem to really step it up on championship teams. And it's very hard to hide a weak line/player over a 7 game series.
I think you've hit on what most of the "experts" here are trying to say.

Have your first line PvP play the other team to a draw and have your secondary players outscore the opposition. The Horcoff is God line of thinking.

And I can see your point until you run into a team the eats your primary players alive. And that will happen.

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07-23-2008, 02:05 AM
  #28
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The MSM, the blogs and the boards all have their uses, and all have their problems with jealousy, nonsense and out-of-control conceit.

The MSM digs out the quotes, the news, and provides commentary from writers who have spent their lives following sports.

The blogs are personal, like a talk radio show. Yes, the personality of the bloggers can be tiresome (I know more than a few folks would like to see me cease and desist), but that's also their strength. While some might might Lowetide's baseball references annoying, they are what make him unique. He offers us what he as to offer, and we can take it or leave it, just like all the blogs.

Since this is all about me , I would also say the same goes with me and my errors stats obession. Many people hate it, some are warming to it, but I love it, I'm into it, I'm following it through, and it's that kind of thing you'll find on a blog and nowhere else, love it or hate it. They are creatures of obsession.

The boards, in particular this board, are the hive mind of the Internet, the keenest fans buzzing about the latest news, trying to figure it out, hungry for the latest, and when I want the latest, this is where I come.

Now, to deride and write off any form -- the MSM, the blogs or the boards -- in their entirety is making a mistake, IMO, but we're all perfectly free to make mistakes in this country.


Last edited by David Staples: 07-23-2008 at 02:24 AM.
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07-23-2008, 02:06 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by MrOiler View Post
I have a pet theory that it's the 3rd/4th lines that are the real differentiators ... or course, I can't prove it.
Teams without strong first and second lines don't make it to the third round let alone the finals. As they go further in the series those lines tend to cancel each other out because both teams have them. Then you start to see the more subtle differences in the two teams.

How's that for a theory?

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07-23-2008, 02:08 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
And I can see your point until you run into a team the eats your primary players alive. And that will happen.
Except that didn't happen with Joe and Sean.

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07-23-2008, 02:10 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by David Staples View Post
Now, to deride and write off any form -- the MSM, the blogs or the boards -- in their entirety is making a mistake, IMO, but we're all perfectly free to make mistakes in this country.
Agree on both points.

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07-23-2008, 02:19 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by David Staples View Post
Since this is all about me , I would also say the same goes with me and my errors stats obession. Many people hate it, some are warming to it, but I love it, I'm into it, I'm following it through, and it's that kind of thing you'll find on a blog and nowhere else, love it or hate it. They are creatures of obsession.

The boards, in particular this board, are the hive mind of the Internet, the keenest fans buzzing about the latest news, trying to figure it out, hungry for the latest, and when I want the latest, this is where I come.

Now, to deride and write off any form -- the MSM, the blogs or the boards -- in their entirety is making a mistake, IMO, but we're all perfectly free to make mistakes in this country.
Just want to make it clear that I wasn't talking about you in my little rant. I don't mind your blog (I read edmontonjournal.com every day), I certainly don't mind your pursuit of your error stat. I see your blog as more of an extension to your "normal" articles, and the fact that you use your name in your blog is something more "oilobloggers" should do. Your blog seems more "journalistic-y"... I dunno, more legitimate.

I'm also not throwing all of "bloggerdom" under the bus. The problem is that it's really hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. Any Internet self-publishing effort that focuses its attention back on itself, or perhaps reflecting back on the people who reflect on themselves, is something that I personally find arrogant, because it's self-promotion for the sake of self-promotion.

In other words, I wish the "blogosphere" was more 60 Minutes and less TMZ.

As for LT's blog, personally, I'd prefer it if he didn't feel the need to work in clever references to everything baseball in each entry. Otherwise, his blog (as I've said already) is quite good. I just don't care for baseball in any shape or form. But I love hockey. Seeing the two mixed together for me is like having this great meal, except the chef mixed in gravel into the meat.

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07-23-2008, 02:19 AM
  #33
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The alternative (blogging) ends up one of two ways as near as I can see. You either end up with only those who accept the central thesis of the blogger commenting -which means that you end up with a form of religious homogeny and little in the way of response.

Or you end up with a popular blog like yours which will (over time) attract pretty much the same group that comes to this site. I see the latter happening on your blog already as your fame spreads. Bruce, one of your regular visitors, is excellent as I am sure you know.
You've had a lot of solid points in this thread, but I simply can't agree with this. Without trying to sound high and mighty, because that is my last intention here, there's a lot of advantages to the blogging format rather than the forum format over here. Not only is the talk much more specialized depending upon where you read, but os are the responses. A lot of the "QFT!" and "Ra ra ra!" nonsense is knocked out simply because of the medium.

Secondly, you mentioned Bruce earlier as one of the better responders... but if you read often enough, and I don't doubt that you'll do, surely you'll have noted many of the large discussions that he's been involved in where there have been people on the very opposite end of the spectrum. Just ask the guy what he thinks about goal posts, I dare you. For whatever reason, every time one of these threads pops up, everyone talks as though all of the "bloggers" walk hand-in-hand... and that's simply not true.

Off the top of my head, about the only two things I'd say you'd get anywhere near a consensus on is some Horcoff love and respect for MacTavish... and that's about it.

I also can't imagine what the thread Nazi's would think if Lowetide dared post THREE threads in one day

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07-23-2008, 02:21 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by David Staples View Post
The MSM, the blogs and the boards all have their uses, and all have their problems with jealousy, nonsense and out-of-control conceit.

The MSM digs out the quotes, the news, and provides commentary from writers who have spent their lives following sports.

The blogs are personal, like a talk radio show. Yes, they personality of the bloggers can be tiresome (I know more than a few folks would like to see me cease and desist), but that's also their strength. While some might might Lowetide's baseball references annoying, they are what him unique. He offers us what he as to offer, and we can take it or leave it, just like all the blogs.

Since this is all about me , I would also say the same goes with me and my errors stats obession. Many people hate it, some are warming to it, but I love it, I'm into it, I'm following it through, and it's that kind of thing you'll find on a blog and nowhere else, love it or hate it. They are creatures of obsession.

The boards, in particular this board, are the hive mind of the Internet, the keenest fans buzzing about the latest news, trying to figure it out, hungry for the latest, and when I want the latest, this is where I come.

Now, to deride and write off any form -- the MSM, the blogs or the boards -- in their entirety is making a mistake, IMO, but we're all perfectly free to make mistakes in this country.
I am curious, have you read much about baseball Sabremetrics? You idea of the error is very much in line with some Sabremetric ideas on how to look at Defence, exept it is very rudimentary compared to their ideas. Essentially it is the same idea, exept you look at a play and assign an error. In Baseball they look at every play, anylize it based on the actuall speed of the ball and trajectory. They see if the average player in baseball at said position would make that play. If they would and the player in question didn't make the play they get a -1, if the player in question did make the play and the average player would also, then it is a 0, if they player in qeustion did make the play and the average player didn't they get a +1. Any way, it all comes down the anylizing every play. Which could be done in hockey, but it woudl take a lot of time and effort, and science. Of coure it would be hard to devide the plays in hockey like you do in baseball, but it could be done. any way, it is all here. http://www.fieldingbible.com/ Just curious where the idea came from?

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07-23-2008, 02:25 AM
  #35
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You've had a lot of solid points in this thread, but I simply can't agree with this. Without trying to sound high and mighty, because that is my last intention here, there's a lot of advantages to the blogging format rather than the forum format over here. Not only is the talk much more specialized depending upon where you read, but os are the responses. A lot of the "QFT!" and "Ra ra ra!" nonsense is knocked out simply because of the medium.

Secondly, you mentioned Bruce earlier as one of the better responders... but if you read often enough, and I don't doubt that you'll do, surely you'll have noted many of the large discussions that he's been involved in where there have been people on the very opposite end of the spectrum. Just ask the guy what he thinks about goal posts, I dare you. For whatever reason, every time one of these threads pops up, everyone talks as though all of the "bloggers" walk hand-in-hand... and that's simply not true.

Off the top of my head, about the only two things I'd say you'd get anywhere near a consensus on is some Horcoff love and respect for MacTavish... and that's about it.

I also can't imagine what the thread Nazi's would think if Lowetide dared post THREE threads in one day
And perhaps there you have it.

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07-23-2008, 02:30 AM
  #36
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Just want to make it clear that I wasn't talking about you in my little rant. . . . I see your blog as more of an extension to your "normal" articles, and the fact that you use your name in your blog is something more "oilobloggers" should do. Your blog seems more "journalistic-y"... I dunno, more legitimate."
It's perfectly OK if you did mean me, as I'm sometimes guilty. As I said, bloggers are idiosyncratic, and that's a plus and a minus.

I've often seen the boards attacked on the blogs (the phrase 'HF Clowns' comes to mind) so it's no surprise to me that there's some anger headed back from the boards to the blogs. Some of the bloggers have it coming to them.

But as Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven, "Kid, we all got it coming."

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07-23-2008, 02:32 AM
  #37
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It's perfectly OK if you did mean me, as I'm sometimes guilty. As I said, bloggers are idiosyncratic, and that's a plus and a minus.

I've often seen the boards attacked on the blogs (the phrase 'HF Clowns' comes to mind) so it's no surprise to me that there's some anger headed back from the boards to the blogs. Some of the bloggers have it coming to them.

But as Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven, "Kid, we all got it coming."
Shhhh.

Don't temp the Schremp Army!

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07-23-2008, 02:35 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by PDO View Post
You've had a lot of solid points in this thread, but I simply can't agree with this. Without trying to sound high and mighty, because that is my last intention here, there's a lot of advantages to the blogging format rather than the forum format over here. Not only is the talk much more specialized depending upon where you read, but os are the responses. A lot of the "QFT!" and "Ra ra ra!" nonsense is knocked out simply because of the medium.

Secondly, you mentioned Bruce earlier as one of the better responders... but if you read often enough, and I don't doubt that you'll do, surely you'll have noted many of the large discussions that he's been involved in where there have been people on the very opposite end of the spectrum. Just ask the guy what he thinks about goal posts, I dare you. For whatever reason, every time one of these threads pops up, everyone talks as though all of the "bloggers" walk hand-in-hand... and that's simply not true.

Off the top of my head, about the only two things I'd say you'd get anywhere near a consensus on is some Horcoff love and respect for MacTavish... and that's about it.

I also can't imagine what the thread Nazi's would think if Lowetide dared post THREE threads in one day
Well I didn't mean to imply that every blogger had the same perspective but that each blogger has a perspective which tends to dominate the threads of each blog. Lowtide tends to collect them all together more than the others because he is really a gifted writer and doesn't put his ego at the forefront of his blogs as many do.

I have an idea that I would like to explore that marries some of the advantages of this kind of message board with the advantages of blogs but I am waiting for DSF to get me some information first.

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07-23-2008, 02:36 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by David Staples View Post
It's perfectly OK if you did mean me, as I'm sometimes guilty. As I said, bloggers are idiosyncratic, and that's a plus and a minus.

I've often seen the boards attacked on the blogs (the phrase 'HF Clowns' comes to mind) so it's no surprise to me that there's some anger headed back from the boards to the blogs. Some of the bloggers have it coming to them.

But as Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven, "Kid, we all got it coming."
As a self professed HF Clown, I've occasionally found myself having to wade into the blogger morass to correct some of the obvious misinformation that gets passed around the "sphere" as fact.

There really is a sense of entitled conventional wisdom that becomes, over time, a religion.

Let me ask you...how could you ever call Horcoff "Scorecoff" based on his actual record?

Compared to what?

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07-23-2008, 02:38 AM
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Well I didn't mean to imply that every blogger had the same perspective but that each blogger has a perspective which tends to dominate the threads of each blog. Lowtide tends to collect them all together more than the others because he is really a gifted writer and doesn't put his ego at the forefront of his blogs as many do.

I have an idea that I would like to explore that marries some of the advantages of this kind of message board with the advantages of blogs but I am waiting for DSF to get me some information first.
Hopefully tomorrow...Island Time don't you know.

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07-23-2008, 02:40 AM
  #41
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I am curious, have you read much about baseball Sabremetrics? You idea of the error is very much in line with some Sabremetric ideas on how to look at Defence, exept it is very rudimentary compared to their ideas. Essentially it is the same idea, exept you look at a play and assign an error. In Baseball they look at every play, anylize it based on the actuall speed of the ball and trajectory. They see if the average player in baseball at said position would make that play. If they would and the player in question didn't make the play they get a -1, if the player in question did make the play and the average player would also, then it is a 0, if they player in qeustion did make the play and the average player didn't they get a +1. Any way, it all comes down the anylizing every play. Which could be done in hockey, but it woudl take a lot of time and effort, and science. Of coure it would be hard to devide the plays in hockey like you do in baseball, but it could be done. any way, it is all here. http://www.fieldingbible.com/ Just curious where the idea came from?
I read a ton of Bill James back in the 1980s, and I really love his Historical Abstract, but I haven't read much modern baseball stats/sabr. stuff. That said, the idea you put forward is very similar to what I'm doing with the error. Very interesting stuff. I'm going to look more closely at that, so thanks for the link.

Of course, in hockey, the play is continuous, not like baseball where it is static and much more easy to break down each play. So I just try to break down two or three plays each game -- the ones where the Oilers get scored on at even strength. Now, some critics have said the error stat in hockey would only be useful if you assigned errors throughout the game, on every play, but that's not possible.

It is possible, though, IMO, to do what I'm doing, to count up the bad plays that lead to goals against, just as hockey has always counted up the good plays that lead to goals for, and called them goals, assists and points.

To answer your question, I came up with the idea for the error out of my great dissatisfaction with the error stat. Early on last year, I'd see Grebeshkov make a terrible error, be the only guy truly at fault on the goal, but it occurred to me that every Oiler on the ice was getting a minus one, when Grebs was the only guy who deserved one.

I now figure about 40 per cent of the time, players get a plus or a minus on plus/minus, but they are not involved in the play in any significant way, so that's how you get weird things like Nilsson at approx. +9 for the year and Gagner at approx. -23, when really they were similar players, both kinda good on offence, and kinda weak on defence.

So I wondered if there was a better way to figure out who should get a "minus" when a goal is scored against the Oilers, and I did think of the age-old baseball error as one model of a subjective stat. There's also the assist in basketball, a subjective offensive stat.

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07-23-2008, 02:40 AM
  #42
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Well I didn't mean to imply that every blogger had the same perspective but that each blogger has a perspective which tends to dominate the threads of each blog. Lowtide tends to collect them all together more than the others because he is really a gifted writer and doesn't put his ego at the forefront of his blogs as many do.

I have an idea that I would like to explore that marries some of the advantages of this kind of message board with the advantages of blogs but I am waiting for DSF to get me some information first.
It could very well just be semantics here, but where you view the perspective dominating the thread of each blog, I view the perspective setting up the discussion in a more selective manner.

I definitely see value in the boards... I still post here, and will continue to for a long time. There are a lot of quality posters here and the discussion covers a wide range.

There's just also a lot of sifting, much of which is avoided through blogs to get to similar value.

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07-23-2008, 02:43 AM
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Hopefully tomorrow...Island Time don't you know.
He, he. I was wondering if you were still around tonight. You know us old retired guys - no rush at all. I am currently enjoying the process of registering my car in this province - no need to explain island time to me.

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07-23-2008, 02:45 AM
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It could very well just be semantics here, but where you view the perspective dominating the thread of each blog, I view the perspective setting up the discussion in a more selective manner.

I definitely see value in the boards... I still post here, and will continue to for a long time. There are a lot of quality posters here and the discussion covers a wide range.

There's just also a lot of sifting, much of which is avoided through blogs to get to similar value.
No doubt about the sifting. And a lot more of it since many of better posters that were here went to blogs.

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07-23-2008, 02:46 AM
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He, he. I was wondering if you were still around tonight. You know us old retired guys - no rush at all. I am currently enjoying the process of registering my car in this province - no need to explain island time to me.
Yeah isn't that special. It took us abut 6 hours to switch insurance and registration which usually takes about 6 minutes in Alberta.

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07-23-2008, 02:48 AM
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So I wondered if there was a better way to figure out who should get a "minus" when a goal is scored against the Oilers, and I did think of the age-old baseball error as one model of a subjective stat. There's also the assist in basketball, a subjective offensive stat.
Different than what you are doing but I always thought the guy in the penalty box should get a minus when a PP goal is scored.

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07-23-2008, 02:49 AM
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Different than what you are doing but I always thought the guy in the penalty box should get a minus when a PP goal is scored.
And the guy who lost the faceoff.

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07-23-2008, 02:51 AM
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Yeah isn't that special. It took us abut 6 hours to switch insurance and registration which usually takes about 6 minutes in Alberta.
I can only dream of 6 hours. They informed me today that all 4 tires on my 2 year old Audi with 30,000 kms need to be replaced because they aren't good enough to be driven on B.C.'s roads.

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07-23-2008, 02:52 AM
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I can only dream of 6 hours. They informed me today that all 4 tires on my 2 year old Audi with 30,000 kms need to be replaced because they aren't good enough to be driven on B.C.'s roads.
Must be good for B.C. business.

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07-23-2008, 02:56 AM
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Different than what you are doing but I always thought the guy in the penalty box should get a minus when a PP goal is scored.
I disagree, for a simple reason:

There's already too much noise in +/-. I'd rather be able to see the +/- available at each situation (6v5, 6v4, 6v3, 5v6, 5v5, 5v4, 5v3, 4v6, 4v5, 4v4, 4v3, 3v6, 3v5, 3v4, 3v3).

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