I can only dream of 6 hours. They informed me today that all 4 tires on my 2 year old Audi with 30,000 kms need to be replaced because they aren't good enough to be driven on B.C.'s roads.
There's already too much noise in +/-. I'd rather be able to see the +/- available at each situation (6v5, 6v4, 6v3, 5v6, 5v5, 5v4, 5v3, 4v6, 4v5, 4v4, 4v3, 3v6, 3v5, 3v4, 3v3).
I don't see how assigning a minus for being the guy to put your team short handed would compromise anything. There is no +/- in shorthanded situations as they currently count them.
I don't see how assigning a minus for being the guy to put your team short handed would compromise anything. There is no +/- in shorthanded situations as they currently count them.
There absolutely is. A short handed goal adds a plus.
I have no problem with keeping track of the stat, but I don't think it's particularly useful. There's good penalties and bad penalties, there's penalties in games where you're up by 8 and there's penalties where you're down by 1 with 1:30 to go... as fans, we all notice those, and so do teammates and coaches.
I mean, if Datsyuk and Zetterberg are on a two on one, and a backchecker mauls Datsyuk as he gets the puck in the slot all alone from Zetterberg and takes a penalty... should he really be punished for saving a clear goal?
Probably directed at me. Anyhow, I may have been wrong on the kid before in terms of his timetable, what he'd do in the minors etc., but his time is now. Everyone that has had good laughs at my expense will be silenced soon enough. As wrong as I have been on many accounts, I pushed for the Penner and Souray signings, pushed for at least 1 of Stoll and Torres to be dealt, pushed for Reasoner to walk if he wasn't going to be PB fodder, etc. At this point it seems like I have a pretty decent grasp on what direction this team is going in. Of course many of the Bloggers don't like Lowe, however I doubt that many of them would've backed what Lowe did like I did prior to it happening. So while I may not be a smart feller, it seems like I'm in teh same boat as our GM in tersm of decision making process' not including the coaching
Quite frankly I could care less what people think of me, I don't portray myself as being any better than anyone else around here, and as I've said in the past, arrogance and a superiority complex really ruins some great work by some. I would rather not even bother reading something from people that think so highly of themselves.
There have been some in the past that feel that their way of analyzing the game is the "correct" way. I'm sorry, but I guess that I'm just old fashioned in terms of letting my own eyes tell me the story.
I'm looking forward to seeing what people have to say when guys like Schremp and Penner play the way that I feel that they can, and hopefully Souray stays healthy.
__________________ Treat Others As You Would Like To Be Treated
Last edited by Bryanbryoil: 07-23-2008 at 03:02 AM.
I have an idea that I would like to explore that marries some of the advantages of this kind of message board with the advantages of blogs but I am waiting for DSF to get me some information first.
Plan revealed!
Aren't you guys too old to be hacking together Web sites?
Everyone that has had good laughs at my expense will be silenced soon enough.
If Schremp makes the team this fall, who will be silenced? Schremp hasn't covered the bets made by many observers and that doesn't change if he finally makes the grade. Same with Pouliot. As fans, we make bets and then watch it play out.
I don't see how making a bet when a guy is 18 and having him manage a roster spot at age 22 have anything really to do with each other. The idea Rob Schremp is the second coming has surely been killed by now.
Right? I mean, right? Sam Gagner is the Hockey Jesus in this town. Can anyone dispute that?
If Schremp makes the team this fall, who will be silenced? Schremp hasn't covered the bets made by many observers and that doesn't change if he finally makes the grade. Same with Pouliot. As fans, we make bets and then watch it play out.
I don't see how making a bet when a guy is 18 and having him manage a roster spot at age 22 have anything really to do with each other. The idea Rob Schremp is the second coming has surely been killed by now.
Right? I mean, right? Sam Gagner is the Hockey Jesus in this town. Can anyone dispute that?
Gagner is all that and a bag of marbles around these parts.
I mean, he grew a bit of a mullet and the HFboards' Oilers section just about collapsed from the excitement.
Agreed, and number one issue is anonymity. How many times have Oiler blogs posted arguments which were not only wrong, but potentially libelous? Things that would get a regular newspaper sued?
Libel laws apply to bloggers just like they do with newspapers.
(...except newspapers won't be footing the bill if the writer loses in court).
Libel laws apply to bloggers just like they do with newspapers.
(...except newspapers won't be footing the bill if the writer loses in court).
The post you're responding to is nuts. I don't think I've ever seen anything libelous posted (as opposed to commented) on any of the "credible" Oil blogs (basically anything that's written by anyone who seems to have the slightest clue).
Last edited by Cerebral: 07-23-2008 at 02:44 PM.
Reason: no
I read a ton of Bill James back in the 1980s, and I really love his Historical Abstract, but I haven't read much modern baseball stats/sabr. stuff. That said, the idea you put forward is very similar to what I'm doing with the error. Very interesting stuff. I'm going to look more closely at that, so thanks for the link.
Of course, in hockey, the play is continuous, not like baseball where it is static and much more easy to break down each play. So I just try to break down two or three plays each game -- the ones where the Oilers get scored on at even strength. Now, some critics have said the error stat in hockey would only be useful if you assigned errors throughout the game, on every play, but that's not possible.
It is possible, though, IMO, to do what I'm doing, to count up the bad plays that lead to goals against, just as hockey has always counted up the good plays that lead to goals for, and called them goals, assists and points.
To answer your question, I came up with the idea for the error out of my great dissatisfaction with the error stat. Early on last year, I'd see Grebeshkov make a terrible error, be the only guy truly at fault on the goal, but it occurred to me that every Oiler on the ice was getting a minus one, when Grebs was the only guy who deserved one.
I now figure about 40 per cent of the time, players get a plus or a minus on plus/minus, but they are not involved in the play in any significant way, so that's how you get weird things like Nilsson at approx. +9 for the year and Gagner at approx. -23, when really they were similar players, both kinda good on offence, and kinda weak on defence.
So I wondered if there was a better way to figure out who should get a "minus" when a goal is scored against the Oilers, and I did think of the age-old baseball error as one model of a subjective stat. There's also the assist in basketball, a subjective offensive stat.
THats the thing with hockey, no one will ever be able to anylize it as much as baseball, as the plays can't be seperated like baseball. The plays can't be broken down.
Any way, I like your idea of the error. I wonder if you consider, at the end of the year when you add them up, to do some calculations based on Quality of Comp and ice time, so the stat wouldn't be perfect, but just say you times it by the inverse of quality of comp, So say a D man faced .10 quality of comp, times it by .90. So the error lowers, then devide by ice time so you end up with some time and quality of comp adjusted stat? Any way, just a idea of course it still wouldn't be perfect. Any way, I like the idea and think it could turn into something, you can really do a lot with it.
I guess the big thing I was saying about the website I showed you is that is the next step to the error in baseball. The big problem with the error in baseball is simpley, players that catch more balls make more errors, because they got to the ball, Good defensive players put themselves in a position to make more errors. So they look more indepth. What you are doing reminds me of just awarding an error, like baseball, but doesn't adjust for the other varialbes. If you facter in quality of comp and ice time, you sort of facter in how good the player is to put him self in position for said error. If that makes sense.
There's a Oilers blog by a moderator on here which is quite good except that every posting has to begin with 2 or 3 paragraphs of something to do with baseball, and then describe things like how much ice time someone will have as how many "at-bats" they will have. Mixing sports and mixing metaphors at the same time. I don't get it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox
Well my friend?, we actually share many views on the "blogosphere".
I got in a whole lot of excrement last night when one blogger compared Horcoff to Larry Walker which just sent me into a shiver.
There is indeed a self congratulatory network of folks who have anointed themselves the all knowing priests of hockey based on stats that would make the Jesuit pursuit of "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin" look like an empty search for the fountain of youth.
i wish there was a stare face emoticon for this forum cause you guys would get a serious :|
Lowetide's got the best blog out there. He's passionate about what he's writing about and he analyses stuff pretty thoroughly. He's well rounded and brings in references from different areas. The dude obviously loves baseball. Part of any great dialogue is to challenge people, engage them. If you can't do a little research to understand his references, then you're an idiot. To be honest, I don't even think you need to understand his baseball references through and through. LT explains his posts pretty thoroughly. He's using an outside source to illustrate and illuminate, the same way we all do. I use actors and work scenarios to explain hockey to my wife. The guys at work compare defense to football. What's the difficulty?
Mirtle? Mirtle is your blogger? Man do we differ in respect to quality. Mirtle is reporting the news, LT's analysing the sport. There is a huge difference.
What a way to start the day, god this ***** gets my blood boiling.
Last edited by hockeyforblood: 07-23-2008 at 10:55 AM.
Reason: Misquote
I don't mind people analysing statistics so much as I mind narcissism prevalent in so many blogs (and not necessarily Oiler blogs). I find it the antithesis of journalism. The author should never make themselves be the news.
Wellsir, it's a good thing blogs by and large don't pretend to be journalism. That's kind of the point of the medium.
Quote:
Agreed, and number one issue is anonymity. How many times have Oiler blogs posted arguments which were not only wrong, but potentially libelous? Things that would get a regular newspaper sued?
There absolutely is. A short handed goal adds a plus.
I have no problem with keeping track of the stat, but I don't think it's particularly useful. There's good penalties and bad penalties, there's penalties in games where you're up by 8 and there's penalties where you're down by 1 with 1:30 to go... as fans, we all notice those, and so do teammates and coaches.
I mean, if Datsyuk and Zetterberg are on a two on one, and a backchecker mauls Datsyuk as he gets the puck in the slot all alone from Zetterberg and takes a penalty... should he really be punished for saving a clear goal?
Ahh, I see. You think the stat is basically useless. I tend to agree. I didn't think adding one more component to it would make it that much more useless I guess. No biggie.
Aren't you guys too old to be hacking together Web sites?
There is an age limit? I'm sure that contravenes section 15 of the Charter which clearly states that old age pensions and liquor control laws are unconstitutional because they discriminate on the basis of age.
And no, I don't believe the plan has been revealed. I know one thing that I always found a little bit annoying about old guys when I was younger is that they tend to have lots of free time and a lot of the money. It's not nearly as annoying to me anymore.
Mirtle? Mirtle is your blogger? Man do we differ in respect to quality. Mirtle is reporting the news, LT's analysing the sport. There is a huge difference.
I don't see why a thread like this would spawn here now. I mean the bloggers have pretty much vacated these parts for a long while.
Rational discourse around these boards are so few and far between that it pretty much pushed me away from visiting here much anymore. The overall maturity level is much to be desired.
Don't cast stones when you live in a glass house.
And if you think all blogger/readers have the same opinion(s) then you obviously haven't been reading the comments sections with any regularity... that or you have been disagreed with on the blogs, and run back here to badmouth your newfound combatant.
DSF, why would you start a thread about bloggers, then proceed to criticize them a couple posts later? Chumming the water and waiting for the frenzy? I think so.
If Blogging isn't your thing, don't read them. Theyve stopped reading 'your thing' a long time ago.
And to the mature people, enjoy what you want... theres good things to be found most anywhere. No need for chips on your shoulder.
Wellsir, it's a good thing blogs by and large don't pretend to be journalism. That's kind of the point of the medium.
Oh, but they do. I've read (in regular newspapers) about bloggers being taken to court over what they write (this is when their real names can be tracked down), and then claiming their sources are protected because they are journalists.
Then they turn around and say they are not bound by the normal ethics of journalism because they're not part of the big bad Mainstream Media.
And if you think all blogger/readers have the same opinion(s) then you obviously haven't been reading the comments sections with any regularity... that or you have been disagreed with on the blogs, and run back here to badmouth your newfound combatant.
Ding ding ding! I'd put a good sum on the onus for this thread being the joyous reception to Horcoff's signing at LT's. Look it up and figure it out.
I don't see why a thread like this would spawn here now. I mean the bloggers have pretty much vacated these parts for a long while.
Rational discourse around these boards are so few and far between that it pretty much pushed me away from visiting here much anymore. The overall maturity level is much to be desired.
Don't cast stones when you live in a glass house.
And if you think all blogger/readers have the same opinion(s) then you obviously haven't been reading the comments sections with any regularity... that or you have been disagreed with on the blogs, and run back here to badmouth your newfound combatant.
And to the mature people, enjoy what you want... theres good things to be found most anywhere. No need for chips on your shoulder.
I would agree with the glass house comment. You can find plenty of immaturity and silliness around here. Yet there is enough irrational discourse and lack of maturity level to be found on many of the blogs as well (as well as some very good intelligent analysis). When they put down HF and other boards it often has the casting stones when you live in a glass house analogy feel for me.
As for the chip on the shoulder. I would say you would find more derogatory comments towards HF (ala HF clown comments among many others) and other boards than the other way around from HF towards the bloggers. If anything HF posters in general support the blogs.
I actually enjoy a lot of the blogs myself. But some much like the tone of your post seem to elevate themselves above others and become a sewing circle for stroking each others egos. If they are so intelligent and enlightened you would think they would be above insulting HF posters with childish names when referring to them.
Last edited by Oilerdiehard: 07-23-2008 at 12:09 PM.
