Ellis will start. At 185 lbs, losing 11 lbs a game in sweat (net), he will play 16 strong games and turn into a puddle sometime late in the 17th game. Thereafter Rinne will be the starter.
Seriously, I expect Rinne to be the starter by year end although I do buy the argument that Ellis won't fade like Mason in part because our team is built for a strong puck handling goalie. Ellis has it, Mason didn't. As much as anything (well, shutting the 5 hole... but that's waaay overrated in the nhl

) I think that weak puck handling contributed to Mason's downfall.