All indications say that both goalies have been excellent in camp, and assuming that holds, Ellis should be the starter. Between now and the summer of 2010, I would be surprised if that hasn't changed.
Ellis will start. At 185 lbs, losing 11 lbs a game in sweat (net), he will play 16 strong games and turn into a puddle sometime late in the 17th game. Thereafter Rinne will be the starter.
Seriously, I expect Rinne to be the starter by year end although I do buy the argument that Ellis won't fade like Mason in part because our team is built for a strong puck handling goalie. Ellis has it, Mason didn't. As much as anything (well, shutting the 5 hole... but that's waaay overrated in the nhl) I think that weak puck handling contributed to Mason's downfall.
Well, I famously predicted at the start of last year that keeping Mason was less of a risk than keeping TV... so just remember that I EARNED my moniker fair and square and all opinions should be read accordingly.