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850 Billion Bailout (economics, not politics)

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Old
10-02-2008, 07:49 PM
  #51
Sinurgy
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Originally Posted by mouser View Post
Just because you put a "for sale" sign on your old car and get no callers doesn't mean it's worth $0. Which is akin to what's happening with a lot of these securities today.
Well unless your point is that the right buyer just didn't come across the the car then I think that is exactly what it means. People often think so many material possessions have an intrinsic value when the truth is they are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them.

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10-03-2008, 12:50 PM
  #52
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Well unless your point is that the right buyer just didn't come across the the car then I think that is exactly what it means. People often think so many material possessions have an intrinsic value when the truth is they are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them.
My point is the right buyer didn't call and further there's a shortage of buyers out shopping right now (it's a buyer's market). The mortgage backed securities do have an intrinsic value--they generate cash flow from mortgage payments. There are many variables of course that make them not perfectly predictable, such as what the default rate will be and how much early payment comes in.

The argument is that the "mark to market" (MTM) accounting is not doing an accurate job of valuing many of these securities right now due to the shortage of buyers. Even if a bank isn't interested in selling one of those securities, it still has to value it on the books according to MTM. Devaluing of the assets can then lead to capitalization problems which can domino into other institutions.

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10-03-2008, 12:57 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mouser View Post
My point is the right buyer didn't call and further there's a shortage of buyers out shopping right now (it's a buyer's market). The mortgage backed securities do have an intrinsic value--they generate cash flow from mortgage payments. There are many variables of course that make them not perfectly predictable, such as what the default rate will be and how much early payment comes in.

The argument is that the "mark to market" (MTM) accounting is not doing an accurate job of valuing many of these securities right now due to the shortage of buyers. Even if a bank isn't interested in selling one of those securities, it still has to value it on the books according to MTM. Devaluing of the assets can then lead to capitalization problems which can domino into other institutions.
BINGO!!!

& the House approves it!, curious to see what they added to it.

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10-03-2008, 01:06 PM
  #54
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Some interesting observations:

Almost all the local Reps from the immediate Phoenix Area voted NO on Monday and changed to Yes today. I kept hearing of accounts of business owners across the country applying pressure to their Representatives, just interesting in places like CA, AZ and FL whom have been hardest hit, representatives of Metropolitan areas Voted YES. I believe that reflects the business sectors desires to attempt to put an end to this and fix the Credit that has Seized up.

Also Denis Kuncinch (sp) voted NO, would have thought he of all people would be for Socialism.

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10-03-2008, 01:31 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by mouser View Post
My point is the right buyer didn't call and further there's a shortage of buyers out shopping right now (it's a buyer's market). The mortgage backed securities do have an intrinsic value--they generate cash flow from mortgage payments. There are many variables of course that make them not perfectly predictable, such as what the default rate will be and how much early payment comes in.

The argument is that the "mark to market" (MTM) accounting is not doing an accurate job of valuing many of these securities right now due to the shortage of buyers. Even if a bank isn't interested in selling one of those securities, it still has to value it on the books according to MTM. Devaluing of the assets can then lead to capitalization problems which can domino into other institutions.
Right but there is a shortage of buyers because they have been priced out of the market due to the ridiculous run up in prices. If the market is allowed to adjust, something this bailout is trying to prevent (though will likely only postpone), the prices will be forced down and will then allow buyers back into the market.

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10-03-2008, 01:34 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by TeamTurris View Post
Some interesting observations:

Almost all the local Reps from the immediate Phoenix Area voted NO on Monday and changed to Yes today. I kept hearing of accounts of business owners across the country applying pressure to their Representatives, just interesting in places like CA, AZ and FL whom have been hardest hit, representatives of Metropolitan areas Voted YES. I believe that reflects the business sectors desires to attempt to put an end to this and fix the Credit that has Seized up.

Also Denis Kuncinch (sp) voted NO, would have thought he of all people would be for Socialism.
Not surprising at all really, an unprecedented objection to this bailout still results in it passing. These people serve special interests, not the people that elect them. Right or wrong, their votes should reflect the majority desire of their constituents.

Sadly it doesn't which is why this November I'll be voting against all incumbents regardless of party affiliation.

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10-03-2008, 01:40 PM
  #57
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Damn I should've added a poll to this thread!

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10-03-2008, 06:09 PM
  #58
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Snapshot of the general online consensus about the bailout plan?

http://digg.com/business_finance/800...*****_in_House

Almost 1000 individual comments, thousands of diggs (yay or nay to said comments) from people all over the geo-political map.

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10-03-2008, 06:59 PM
  #59
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In the meantime, Warren Buffet is investing billions. If there's one guy who knows about disciplined investment, that's him. He obviously sees this more as an oportunity than a complete crash. Why wouldn't we??
Here is a quote from Warren Buffett:

Quote:
Billionaire Warren Buffett told congressional negotiators that if they can't agree on a proposed financial bailout, the nation will face "its biggest financial meltdown in American history," two sources familiar with the talks said.
Here is a link to the article: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/28/bailout.deal/

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10-03-2008, 07:18 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Art.Vandelay View Post
Here is a quote from Warren Buffett:



Here is a link to the article: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/28/bailout.deal/
I actually really like Warren Buffet (Go Huskers!) but to say he's got a little invested (see what I did there? ) in this bailout is an understatement. This would be like asking a Canadian what is the best sport in the world, you know the answer before you ask it.

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10-03-2008, 07:21 PM
  #61
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A couple random points (I'm too lazy to go back and quote everyone)

The credit markets seizing is not just impacting the consumer. It's affecting the guy buying the tv all the way to the fortune 500 company and everyone in between. Banks aren't lending because their afraid to be the next one on CNN. The really great rates that banks and big companies get when borrowing is going up making it harder and more expensive for big companies to get loans. This is impacting their bottom line.

I agree that overall this is a crappy situation. I agree that is sucks that there are some people that are going to get bailed out for making bad investments. Unfortunately, all those bad decisions are snowballing and impacting our entire economy. Hopefully, this bill gets things turned around.

The pork that was added to this bill is disgusting. The fact that some a**hole is taking advantage of one of the biggest financial crises in our country's history to make sure he can get funding for some scientist to see if they can domesticate humpback whales (ok, I made that part up) makes me want to puke.

There was a bunch of republicans that said they voted against the bill this week because they were mad Nancy Pelosi made a partisan speech beforehand bashing Bush. A bunch of grown men who voted against a bill that could potentially avoid an economic disaster for our country because their feelings got hurt. These are the idiots that represent us in our government.

To summarize, I'm not saying that this bailout is the best solution. But it appears that right now, it's the only solution. Waiting this one out is not an option.

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10-03-2008, 07:29 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sinurgy View Post
I actually really like Warren Buffet (Go Huskers!) but to say he's got a little invested (see what I did there? ) in this bailout is an understatement. This would be like asking a Canadian what is the best sport in the world, you know the answer before you ask it.
Agreed, but we all pretty have something invested here. This crisis is hitting "main street" with big hits in real estate values and our pensions or 401k's. Those are the two investments most of us are relying on.

Also, we just had the largest monthly job loss since 9/11. These aren't the bank execs losing their jobs, it's us.

Oh, and I agree that curling is the best sport in the world.


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10-03-2008, 07:32 PM
  #63
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One last thing to add. I too am impressed with the responses in this thread. I always enjoy reading a great debate that contains educated well thought out responses.

Cheers to the Yotes fans.

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10-03-2008, 08:55 PM
  #64
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I wouldn't be quite so cynical to suggest itís ďspecial interestsĒ that lead to the dramatic turn-around in the houses vote. I heard all week about employers (small and large) struggling to make pay-roll or to get a loan to keep their business going and them calling/ emailing (myself incl) to their representatives, thatís why I think you got a change in votes in Metropolitan Areas, were there is a greater concentration of employers.

i.e. Shaddig, Pastor, Mitchell

Iím still P.O.ed about how it got this far and this bad and Iím certainly not thrilled about even doing a bail-out (or ďInvest in America PlanĒ), but something dramatic had to happen and very fast. If were going to right the ship we need a good (not great) but good Christmas shopping season, MAYBE if housing shows even the slightest semblance of stopping the spiral between now and then, we may have a decent Holiday Season, and then that may just be the spark that jumps starts the heart (insert a Tommy Lee Dumb Solo)

I had lunch with a buddy whom bought a home 18 mo ago, he was irate about the two homes that went under in the past couple months in his subdivision, and his is cursing at irresponsible home-owners, lenders, etc. He was using rhetoric similar to del and Syn, in that he felt they need to learn a lesson, and be hung out to dry. I told him what I told yaíll; if this situation was isolated to just people who made bone-headed decisions, I would say lets dust off the Ďol gilotene. But, this situation was/ is getting out of hand real fast and is affecting all of us. Frankly Iím willing to forgo the ďmoralityĒ rehetoric if for only my self-preservation. I was pissed at all the bone-heads for the past 18mo, now I want solutions! If someone now has a newly purchased Govít Mortgage and canít figure something out, (i.e. 2% interest, just something) then I say off with their heads!

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10-03-2008, 10:06 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by TeamTurris View Post
I wouldn't be quite so cynical to suggest itís ďspecial interestsĒ that lead to the dramatic turn-around in the houses vote. I heard all week about employers (small and large) struggling to make pay-roll or to get a loan to keep their business going and them calling/ emailing (myself incl) to their representatives, thatís why I think you got a change in votes in Metropolitan Areas, were there is a greater concentration of employers.

i.e. Shaddig, Pastor, Mitchell

Iím still P.O.ed about how it got this far and this bad and Iím certainly not thrilled about even doing a bail-out (or ďInvest in America PlanĒ), but something dramatic had to happen and very fast. If were going to right the ship we need a good (not great) but good Christmas shopping season, MAYBE if housing shows even the slightest semblance of stopping the spiral between now and then, we may have a decent Holiday Season, and then that may just be the spark that jumps starts the heart (insert a Tommy Lee Dumb Solo)

I had lunch with a buddy whom bought a home 18 mo ago, he was irate about the two homes that went under in the past couple months in his subdivision, and his is cursing at irresponsible home-owners, lenders, etc. He was using rhetoric similar to del and Syn, in that he felt they need to learn a lesson, and be hung out to dry. I told him what I told yaíll; if this situation was isolated to just people who made bone-headed decisions, I would say lets dust off the Ďol gilotene. But, this situation was/ is getting out of hand real fast and is affecting all of us. Frankly Iím willing to forgo the ďmoralityĒ rehetoric if for only my self-preservation. I was pissed at all the bone-heads for the past 18mo, now I want solutions! If someone now has a newly purchased Govít Mortgage and canít figure something out, (i.e. 2% interest, just something) then I say off with their heads!
I read that after the Houss failed to pass the bill, the House email servers were overwhelmed. Our company encouraged leaders to call their local congressman, though I had already written an email to Shadegg.

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10-04-2008, 12:51 AM
  #66
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I actually really like Warren Buffet (Go Huskers!) but to say he's got a little invested (see what I did there? ) in this bailout is an understatement. This would be like asking a Canadian what is the best sport in the world, you know the answer before you ask it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art.Vandelay View Post
Agreed, but we all pretty have something invested here. This crisis is hitting "main street" with big hits in real estate values and our pensions or 401k's. Those are the two investments most of us are relying on.

Also, we just had the largest monthly job loss since 9/11. These aren't the bank execs losing their jobs, it's us.

Oh, and I agree that curling is the best sport in the world.

I love Buffett, but he placed a major bet on a horse last week. There's just no way to view anything he says as impartial regards the bailout.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/24/mark...ion=2008092413


Of course, he has a habit of placing winning bets, and this one is probably going to be yet another.

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10-04-2008, 03:13 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by TeamTurris View Post
I wouldn't be quite so cynical to suggest itís ďspecial interestsĒ that lead to the dramatic turn-around in the houses vote. I heard all week about employers (small and large) struggling to make pay-roll or to get a loan to keep their business going and them calling/ emailing (myself incl) to their representatives, thatís why I think you got a change in votes in Metropolitan Areas, were there is a greater concentration of employers.
Why not? Wooden arrows? Rum? Race tracks? What the **** does that have to do with an economic bailout. These people absolutely do not have yours or my best interests in mind. The best we can hope for is that their best interest just happens to affect us in a positive way.

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Originally Posted by TeamTurris View Post
i.e. Shaddig, Pastor, Mitchell
Don't forget Giffords. One positive thing about this bailout passing, it's going to make voting very easy next month.

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10-04-2008, 03:30 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Art.Vandelay View Post
Agreed, but we all pretty have something invested here. This crisis is hitting "main street" with big hits in real estate values and our pensions or 401k's. Those are the two investments most of us are relying on.

Also, we just had the largest monthly job loss since 9/11. These aren't the bank execs losing their jobs, it's us.

Oh, and I agree that curling is the best sport in the world.

The only 401k's that would've been in trouble were people who are nearing retirement. Considering the size of the baby boom generation I'm sure that came into play. Which is great since they are also going to feast on Social Security as well...thanks. No really!

As for houses, what about people who don't own a house? Everyone seems to continue fretting over the poor homeowners who got in over their heads but I don't hear much about the people who were froze out the housing market because of the absolutely retarded run-up in prices. They didn't get in debt up to their eyeballs, wisely stayed on the sidelines while many others decided "$10 for a can of Coke, hell yeah! Coke only goes up you know!!!" and their reward for being fiscally responsible?!

Not a ******* thing!

Oh and yes I agree, curling rocks.


Last edited by Sinurgy: 10-04-2008 at 03:36 AM.
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10-04-2008, 10:19 AM
  #69
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The only 401k's that would've been in trouble were people who are nearing retirement. Considering the size of the baby boom generation I'm sure that came into play. Which is great since they are also going to feast on Social Security as well...thanks. No really!

As for houses, what about people who don't own a house? Everyone seems to continue fretting over the poor homeowners who got in over their heads but I don't hear much about the people who were froze out the housing market because of the absolutely retarded run-up in prices. They didn't get in debt up to their eyeballs, wisely stayed on the sidelines while many others decided "$10 for a can of Coke, hell yeah! Coke only goes up you know!!!" and their reward for being fiscally responsible?!

Not a ******* thing!

Oh and yes I agree, curling rocks.
What about the 760k people that have been laid off in this shrinking job market. Man of those don't have a 401k or real estate and are living check to check. Do we tell them, "sorry you lost your job, but it's more important for us to punish the idiots that caused this rather than fix it".

The Phoenix housing market is hopefully correcting itself after the big run up a few years ago. That market was pushed artificially high by the hoards of investors hoping for a quick buck. Unfortunately it caught a bunch of unsuspecting people purchasing a home by suprise. I have friends who got caught in the frenzy and either bought houses for way more than they are worth now or bought in places way outside the city (far west Buckeye) in developments that are struggling. I feel bad for those people and for those that cannot afford to buy a home right now either because the prices are still too high or credit is not available.

Social security....there's another joke. Just for grins, I like to look at my pay stub and wave bye bye to the social security deduction.

The fact that the government is running this bailout does scare me. Throughout history they've shown how inept they are at running any large program (social security, medicare, medicaid). I think I would prefer that the private sector would pony up the money and run with the bailout. But I doubt they would risk the cash without the guaranteed return and it also opens it up to greed.

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10-04-2008, 05:25 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Art.Vandelay View Post
The fact that the government is running this bailout does scare me. Throughout history they've shown how inept they are at running any large program (social security, medicare, medicaid). I think I would prefer that the private sector would pony up the money and run with the bailout. But I doubt they would risk the cash without the guaranteed return and it also opens it up to greed.
That is one thing we definitely agree on. The government running pretty much anything scares the hell out of me because frankly they are rarely good at it. The cost always seems to balloon and what's worse is despite the much increased costs, they get so caught up in bureaucracy and corruption that much of the money is siphoned out of the system before it gets used for what was intended. This is what scares me about government run health care.

Oh and I would like to echo the sentiment that has been expressed by a few already, I'm very impressed with everyones ability to keep this a healthy debate. I think it's awesome that regardless of stances we can have a discussion without resorting to name calling or any of that silly child like behavior that gets threads closed.

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10-04-2008, 08:21 PM
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Thatís because Coyotes fans are intelligent and well mannered as opposed to those Red Wings Fans.

Synergy, I do share in your P.O.ed ness about the added pork, that would have been a great opportunity for one of the Presidential candidates to provide leadership; since both talk about run-away pork-barrel spending.

Perhaps ones perspective on things is different when you own property and see it depreciating $4k a month plus what you shell out for interest. Sure Iím not loosing money per say as long as I donít sell it. But, much like peoples 401K & other investments, how many years will it take to recoup these loses and how does that play into each individuals yield curve? I had saved up an additional chunk of money that I was literal weeks away from throwing into the Stock Market, now Iím so glad I didnít and I will keep it liquid.

Iím now beginning to hear stories about lay-offs and cutback in hours in my field (architecture) itís pretty scary. Iím predicting (not a fan though) but another stimulus check right before X-Mass.

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10-05-2008, 12:09 AM
  #72
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Iím now beginning to hear stories about lay-offs and cutback in hours in my field (architecture) itís pretty scary. Iím predicting (not a fan though) but another stimulus check right before X-Mass.
You are just starting to hear about layoffs? I've been hearing about them for MONTHS, in fact some have already been done in non-revenue departments. And we have to wait until the State makes decisions about budgets until we hear anything. I don't expect a raise for a few years, let alone a promotion. When people leave, the position is just not filled. Our department is being farmed out to different departments and we are supposedly getting all our "perks" taken away. I am just hoping that my job stays put and I don't get RIF'd.

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10-07-2008, 07:30 PM
  #73
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After Bailout, AIG Execs Head to California Resort (spending half million)

Less than a week after the federal government committed $85 billion to bail out AIG, executives of the giant AIG insurance company headed for a week-long retreat at a luxury resort and spa, the St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach, California, Congressional investigators revealed today.

AIG documents obtained by Waxman's investigators show the company paid more than $440,000 for the retreat, including nearly $200,000 for rooms, $150,000 for meals and $23,000 in spa charges.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5973452&page=1


Edit: Oh nevermind, turns out those are just "regrettable and wrong headlines" and AIG was just trying to bring employees together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JRJVlg6X7s


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10-07-2008, 07:38 PM
  #74
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********!

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10-07-2008, 11:35 PM
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After Bailout, AIG Execs Head to California Resort (spending half million)

Less than a week after the federal government committed $85 billion to bail out AIG, executives of the giant AIG insurance company headed for a week-long retreat at a luxury resort and spa, the St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach, California, Congressional investigators revealed today.

AIG documents obtained by Waxman's investigators show the company paid more than $440,000 for the retreat, including nearly $200,000 for rooms, $150,000 for meals and $23,000 in spa charges.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5973452&page=1


Edit: Oh nevermind, turns out those are just "regrettable and wrong headlines" and AIG was just trying to bring employees together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JRJVlg6X7s
You know I heard that today and thought of you. I'm equally P.O.ed and IF there is anything they did that was illegal I want to see 'em hanged. Keep in mind the tax payers gave them a loan (with a "presumption" it gets paid back) along with 70something % stake in AIG (which makes us sound like Venesuala) I'm pissed, just not sure what alternatives there are/ were.

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