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Let the fire sale begin!!!!

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Old
02-26-2004, 02:35 PM
  #26
The Rage
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanko
How much better though ??Stanley cup contender??NO way.So lets look down the road and get better somehow for 2,3 years down the road.I want the Oiler's to win the cup and we are not headed there.
We're not going to win the cup in two or three years if the oldest players on our team are 28 (which would be your proposed 2007 end game). I DO think we will be an improved team next year. Look at the numbers. We are a GOOD 5 on 5 team. The problem is our special teams. Goaliers are easy to aquire, and a good one would turn around our PK (so would a ful year of Reasoner). The powerplay would improve now that Bergeron seems to be slowly developing into a solid NHLer. If all we do is get a goalie (again, an easy thing to do), we will be vastly improved.

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02-26-2004, 02:40 PM
  #27
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Obviously we have different opinions I want to win a cup you guys prefer wallowing in mediocrity.Geez I hope we get better next year maybe we might pull off a 1st round upset.You guys are totally living in a dream world if you think this team can win a Cup in the future.

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02-26-2004, 02:41 PM
  #28
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Everyone keeps talking about how young the Oilers are, but they aren't as young as you think. Oates is 41, Ulanov is 34, Salo is 33, Cross is 33, Ferguson is 31, Staios is 30, and Smith is 30. These guys aren't kids and all or most of them could be gone next year. I doubt Staios or Cross will be going anywhere due to their contracts and Ulanov has been exceptional and deserves an extention.

That said there could be a lot of turnover from this season to the next time we have NHL hockey. Not only from the 30-and-older crowd but potentially also guys like Smyth and Laraque.

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02-26-2004, 02:52 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerrick
Everyone keeps talking about how young the Oilers are, but they aren't as young as you think. Oates is 41, Ulanov is 34, Salo is 33, Cross is 33, Ferguson is 31, Staios is 30, and Smith is 30. These guys aren't kids and all or most of them could be gone next year. I doubt Staios or Cross will be going anywhere due to their contracts and Ulanov has been exceptional and deserves an extention.

That said there could be a lot of turnover from this season to the next time we have NHL hockey. Not only from the 30-and-older crowd but potentially also guys like Smyth and Laraque.
While that is true, aside from Oates, there isn't a single forward over 28 years old. We also have realistic hope that these defencemen can be replaced by the likes of Lynch, Wyowitka and Green.

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02-26-2004, 02:56 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
While that is true, aside from Oates, there isn't a single forward over 28 years old. We also have realistic hope that these defencemen can be replaced by the likes of Lynch, Wyowitka and Green.

So lets trade Smith then maybe Igor too.

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02-26-2004, 02:58 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanko
Obviously we have different opinions I want to win a cup you guys prefer wallowing in mediocrity.Geez I hope we get better next year maybe we might pull off a 1st round upset.You guys are totally living in a dream world if you think this team can win a Cup in the future.
That's it... I knew I was an Oiler fan.

No, this team can't win a cup in the future...

But a team that looks like this:

Smyth-Pouliot-Hemsky
Torres-Niinimaki/Stoll/Reasoner-York/Mikhnov
Moreau-Reasoner/Stoll/York-Dvorak
Horcoff/Chimera-Stoll/Horcoff/Niinimaki-Laraque/Salmo

Brewer-Lynch
Semenov-Green
Veteran D-Wyowitka

Deslauriers/Veteran G
Conklin/Veteran G

Could very well make a lot of noise and possibly do some damage as they get older and grow as a team. Sure these things aren't a given, but neither is unloading every veteran you have.

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02-26-2004, 02:59 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
While that is true, aside from Oates, there isn't a single forward over 28 years old. We also have realistic hope that these defencemen can be replaced by the likes of Lynch, Wyowitka and Green.

I hear you. The two areas I'm most concerned about are goaltending and centre. Although, IMO, the Oilers don't need to really make any significant moves if they know that there is going to be an extended work stoppage. The reason being that they won't have to worry about how good they are next year, only the year after that.

I think if the lockout looks serious the Oilers will focus strictly on developing prospects in Toronto and not worry too much about next year's roster. Especially since the play-offs are not going to happen this season it means that there is no immediate need to make changes aside from maybe moving a couple veterans. (Oates and Salo)

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02-26-2004, 02:59 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
While that is true, aside from Oates, there isn't a single forward over 28 years old. We also have realistic hope that these defencemen can be replaced by the likes of Lynch, Wyowitka and Green.
Maybe its just me, but I have no problems dumping two of Cross, Smith, Staois, or Ulanov. Am I totally naive in thinking that a

Brewer/Staois
Semenov/Ulanov
Cross/Bergeron
Lynch and Woywitka

defense would work?

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02-26-2004, 03:00 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanko
So lets trade Smith then maybe Igor too.
What's Igor's value?

Maybe a 4th or 5th round pick.

Is that more value than the type of game Semenov was playing when he got paired with Ulanov?

I don't think anyone is arguing that you get rid of a vet or two if it makes sense... the issue is unloading everyone and starting from scratch.

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02-26-2004, 03:01 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by creative giant
what mediocrity? do you seriously expect a bunch of 23 year olds to lead you to a cup? As they gain experience in the future, they will make us a helluva team. I am sick and tired of seeing our future stars being dealt. In the past this was because of money, but it seems now that we can keep them, and you're so impatient that you want to trade them away, and for what? all we will be able to get back for them at this stage of the game will be mediocrity at best.
Being the Devil's Advocate here:

What if the kids that the Oilers bring together.. don't make up a hell of a team?

What if when those young guns all become real players, the Oilers are still faced with a lack of a #1 goaltender, a #1 centre, and a #1 defensemen (or similar problems)?

Compare the youth of the Oilers to that of the Phoenix Coyotes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Calgary Flames. Can the Oilers match those teams?

How about the LA Kings, one of the best group of prospects this side of Washington DC. If not the best. Then you've got the Hawks whom are LOADED with young guys, though with their crap ownership & management, you can never be sure it'll work out.

The Oilers have nice youth, but it's not good enough, in my mind, to be a top 4 team in the West, even if most of it works out. There is still a lack of high-end prospects & youngsters outside of Ales Hemsky, so far as I see it anyhow. I love the depth though. The depth really kicks butt. But the Lowe must start making tracks for a top notch centreman prospect or defenseman prospect to make it look a little bit better to my liking. This is one of the reasons why I didn't so much like the Parise/Pouliot & JF Jacques move. But that's not a huge, huge deal.

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02-26-2004, 03:04 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil slick
Maybe its just me, but I have no problems dumping two of Cross, Smith, Staois, or Ulanov. Am I totally naive in thinking that a

Brewer/Staois
Semenov/Ulanov
Cross/Bergeron
Lynch and Woywitka

defense would work?
I don't think you are naive at all... but could it be more beneficial to see how Lynch and Wyowitka do in the pros before jettsoning 2/7ths of our NHL defensive depth. There is nothing wrong with calling up Lynch for 40 games and calling up Wyowitka for 40 games and seeing how they react. But if you do that you need to keep more than 2 of Smith, Staois, Cross, Ulanov and Ferguson.

Of course after I post all this, I notice that you say get rid of 2 of Smith, Staois, Cross and Ulanov, but in your lineup you only remove 1 of them.

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Old
02-26-2004, 03:06 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanko
Obviously we have different opinions I want to win a cup you guys prefer wallowing in mediocrity.Geez I hope we get better next year maybe we might pull off a 1st round upset.You guys are totally living in a dream world if you think this team can win a Cup in the future.
So just to get this straight, you want a rebuild but you want to win at the same time?

Hate to break the news but it's not going to happen. It's a sequence not a concurrent happening.

The team is two or three guys away from being rebuilt right now and rather than being patient for another two years, you want to start over? Boy us Oiler fans sure can be a fickle group.

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02-26-2004, 03:06 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
Being the Devil's Advocate here:

What if the kids that the Oilers bring together.. don't make up a hell of a team?

What if when those young guns all become real players, the Oilers are still faced with a lack of a #1 goaltender, a #1 centre, and a #1 defensemen (or similar problems)?

Compare the youth of the Oilers to that of the Phoenix Coyotes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Calgary Flames. Can the Oilers match those teams?

How about the LA Kings, one of the best group of prospects this side of Washington DC. If not the best. Then you've got the Hawks whom are LOADED with young guys, though with their crap ownership & management, you can never be sure it'll work out.

The Oilers have nice youth, but it's not good enough, in my mind, to be a top 4 team in the West, even if most of it works out. There is still a lack of high-end prospects & youngsters outside of Ales Hemsky, so far as I see it anyhow. I love the depth though. The depth really kicks butt. But the Lowe must start making tracks for a top notch centreman prospect or defenseman prospect to make it look a little bit better to my liking. This is one of the reasons why I didn't so much like the Parise/Pouliot & JF Jacques move. But that's not a huge, huge deal.
I agree. The Oilers need a cornerstone centre and a cornerstone goalie to build around. That is why, especially if there is no NHL hockey next year, they ought to stock up on as many draft picks and young prospects as they can right now and develop them next season. There is no need to employ guys like Salo, Oates, Ferguson, Ulanov, or even Cross for a whole season with no hockey.

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Old
02-26-2004, 03:09 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil slick
but isn't this what everyone is talking about? Trading a few of Smith, Staois, Cross, Oates, maybe Smyth, maybe Moreau, maybe Laraque (but only a few of them)?
that's not what FIRESALE means to me

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02-26-2004, 03:11 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
Being the Devil's Advocate here:

What if the kids that the Oilers bring together.. don't make up a hell of a team?

What if when those young guns all become real players, the Oilers are still faced with a lack of a #1 goaltender, a #1 centre, and a #1 defensemen (or similar problems)?

Compare the youth of the Oilers to that of the Phoenix Coyotes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Calgary Flames. Can the Oilers match those teams?

How about the LA Kings, one of the best group of prospects this side of Washington DC. If not the best. Then you've got the Hawks whom are LOADED with young guys, though with their crap ownership & management, you can never be sure it'll work out.

The Oilers have nice youth, but it's not good enough, in my mind, to be a top 4 team in the West, even if most of it works out. There is still a lack of high-end prospects & youngsters outside of Ales Hemsky, so far as I see it anyhow. I love the depth though. The depth really kicks butt. But the Lowe must start making tracks for a top notch centreman prospect or defenseman prospect to make it look a little bit better to my liking. This is one of the reasons why I didn't so much like the Parise/Pouliot & JF Jacques move. But that's not a huge, huge deal.
We'll have to see how the war of 2004 plays out before we can see what Lowe can do.

But if the new CBA is at all beneficial to the Oilers, Lowe is going to hopefully be able to parlay some of this depth into something special (kind of like the opposite of what the Oilers have been doing). If there comes a point where it is a buyers market for high-level NHL talent, Lowe could have a stockpile of quality young NHL players from which to deal.

There isn't that superstar that is evident from the Oilers prospect/young players group, but if the Oilers can churn out 15 or 16 capable 2nd/3rd line NHL forwards, those assets are what could nab the Oilers that #1 goaltender or that allstar centre.

Lowe is hedging his bets that the new NHL has things like lower contracts and lower team payrolls. He can afford this outlook much more than say other GMs because the Oilers fate depends on that. It's a no-lose situation from an Edmonton Oilers standpoint. If the CBA doesn't change, there won't be a team in Edmonton any longer anyways, so you might as well put all your eggs in one basket.

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Old
02-26-2004, 03:19 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mizral
Being the Devil's Advocate here:


Compare the youth of the Oilers to that of the Phoenix Coyotes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Calgary Flames. Can the Oilers match those teams?

How about the LA Kings, one of the best group of prospects this side of Washington DC. If not the best. Then you've got the Hawks whom are LOADED with young guys, though with their crap ownership & management, you can never be sure it'll work out.

.
That is a great idea, lets compare the youth to the teams you mentioned.

HF Prospect Rankings

Oilers - 3rd
Pheonix - 5th
Columbus - 8th
Flames - 19th
Kings - 13th
Chicago - 17th

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Old
02-26-2004, 03:31 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerrick
I agree. The Oilers need a cornerstone centre and a cornerstone goalie to build around.
I agree with this, and kind of with the gist of Mizral's message. If you transplant a top center and top goalie (and debatably puck-moving defenseman) onto this team, then it's instantly a very good team. We do not need to blow up the whole team and rebuild from scratch. We need to acquire 2 or 3 high-end players.

Blowing up the team to start from scratch does that in an indirect way: you blow up the team, then finish at the bottom of the league for 4 or 5 seasons, draft high-end players, suck for 3-4 more years as those guys develop, and you're suddenly a cup contender. It's the 8 year plan that's been a great success in Ottawa and Colorado.

While some internet fans might think it's a great idea, I'm not sure the folks who buy seasons tickets would be willing to support a bad team for that length of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerrick
they ought to stock up on as many draft picks and young prospects as they can right now and develop them next season.
This, on the otherhand, *doesn't* bring in high-end players. It just brings in more of what we've already got-- ok players, decent players, guys who can play in the NHL... but not cornerstone players.

The kind of players you get with mid-level draft picks (or in trades for mid-range players) statistically speaking almost never turn into cornerstone players. Especially at center. There's exceptions, but not lots of them. If you look around the league at the guys who are the top centers or becoming top centers for their teams, most were acquired with high draft picks.

Goalie seems to be the one position where later draft picks often turn into premium players.

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02-26-2004, 03:31 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by copperandblue
So just to get this straight, you want a rebuild but you want to win at the same time?

Hate to break the news but it's not going to happen. It's a sequence not a concurrent happening.

The team is two or three guys away from being rebuilt right now and rather than being patient for another two years, you want to start over? Boy us Oiler fans sure can be a fickle group.

Read the posts before you post please.I said we won't win for 2 years anyway so let's rebuild.

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02-26-2004, 03:33 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
I don't think you are naive at all... but could it be more beneficial to see how Lynch and Wyowitka do in the pros before jettsoning 2/7ths of our NHL defensive depth. There is nothing wrong with calling up Lynch for 40 games and calling up Wyowitka for 40 games and seeing how they react. But if you do that you need to keep more than 2 of Smith, Staois, Cross, Ulanov and Ferguson.

Of course after I post all this, I notice that you say get rid of 2 of Smith, Staois, Cross and Ulanov, but in your lineup you only remove 1 of them.
I think it's all a question of value. If we can get a great return for any of th players you are thinking of moving then by all means make the deal, other wise keep them.

I think the sentiment is about right though something must be done to at the very least show the younger players that Losing is not acceptable and that changes will be made when things are not working. If smith, Smyth or staois is moved it makes a statement to the younger players on the team that no one is exempt from scrutiny. The last thing i ever want to see is the players swarming the goalie after winning their 1st game in 19 like the pens did last night, so a fire sale is a bit extreme, but if one of Cross, Ulanov stois or smith was moved i think our defence could absorb the loss. I also think that our depth at Lw would allow us to move one of Smyth, Isbister chimera, rita or Moreau. Using pieces from those 2 areas we have some gaping holes to fill in net 1st line center and puck moving d-man. The reality is only a limited number of players listed have enough value to get any of the pieces we need.

I really think that while smyth and Smith are great players, but when you factor in their salary and the fact they are in an area where we have a lot of depth, so they could very well be the players who get moved if there is a retool.

Smith and Smyth should be able top bring in a new #1 goalie and a puck moving D-man. I really think the Number one center will need to be groomed in house as they just don't grow on trees and are very expensive

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02-26-2004, 03:43 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Tanko
Read the posts before you post please.I said we won't win for 2 years anyway so let's rebuild.
Which would set the development back another couple years. This rebuild has been in progress for a couple years now.

Of which I am trying to point out that in two years this can be a team on the verge BUT because it isn't happening fast enough for some (a two year rebuild? not likely, unless you want the same success the Rangers have blessed their fans with) people want to start over.

Based on that line of thinking, this team would constantly be rebuilding. In two years - they're not close enough. So tear 'em down again, two years later .... and so on and so on....

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02-26-2004, 03:58 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
But if the new CBA is at all beneficial to the Oilers, Lowe is going to hopefully be able to parlay some of this depth into something special (kind of like the opposite of what the Oilers have been doing). If there comes a point where it is a buyers market for high-level NHL talent, Lowe could have a stockpile of quality young NHL players from which to deal.
BINGO - we have a winner.

If any type of salary cap/luxury tax is brought in - it will place a premium on players who are young, cheap and fairly effective because teams will not be able to hoard high priced talent and stay within the salary constraints.

In this situation - players with large contracts become a problem because team can only afford a few of them. A team like Tampa Bay will probably not be able to afford both Richards and Vinny (unless they gut the rest of the team) and I expect one of them to be traded for solid inexpensive depth players. Lowe has lots and lots of inexpensive depth players AND he has the salary room to make it happen - so I expect a quantity for quality trade in the future as well.

After the new CBA is negotiated - Lowe has put the team into a position where they will be able to afford a top line center. Delete Salo, Oates and Smith's salary and you have 7 million to play with. I expect the Oilers to be buyers for the center we need. Hockey fans need to start looking at a sport like basketball - where a GM is judged not only on the talent he aquires - but on how he manages his salary structure. Lowe has done very well in this area and I hope the Oilers are rewarded for it in the next CBA.

All we have to do is get rid of any contracts that could limit our future flexibility to afford the elite center we need - and the only contracts that may be a probelm are Salo's and maybe Smith's. So these guys are probably both gone.

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02-26-2004, 04:05 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanko
Read the posts before you post please.I said we won't win for 2 years anyway so let's rebuild.
I don't really understand why we'd want to rebuild even more? What are we going to do, deal Hemsky and Torres away for even younger guys?? The future core of the Oilers is all around the age of 26 years old, there is no reason to rebuild, we're already in the process! I believe that we have a great core of youngsters that need a couple years to develop.. by that time, Lowe is hoping that the CBA is all fixed up and he can then supplement his youngsters with a few veterans of his choosing along with guys like Smyth, York and Dvorak that stuck along for the ride. I think our team looks great for the future, there is no reason to sell away all of our established players yet again. Too many people here place too much stock in prospects.. look at the relative success rate of first rounders and tell me again that you want to deal away Smyth, Smith, Brewer, Isbister, Dvorak etc.

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02-26-2004, 04:11 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil
BINGO - we have a winner.

If any type of salary cap/luxury tax is brought in - it will place a premium on players who are young, cheap and fairly effective because teams will not be able to hoard high priced talent and stay within the salary constraints.

In this situation - players with large contracts become a problem because team can only afford a few of them. A team like Tampa Bay will probably not be able to afford both Richards and Vinny (unless they gut the rest of the team) and I expect one of them to be traded for solid inexpensive depth players. Lowe has lots and lots of inexpensive depth players AND he has the salary room to make it happen - so I expect a quantity for quality trade in the future as well.

After the new CBA is negotiated - Lowe has put the team into a position where they will be able to afford a top line center. Delete Salo, Oates and Smith's salary and you have 7 million to play with. I expect the Oilers to be buyers for the center we need. Hockey fans need to start looking at a sport like basketball - where a GM is judged not only on the talent he aquires - but on how he manages his salary structure. Lowe has done very well in this area and I hope the Oilers are rewarded for it in the next CBA.

All we have to do is get rid of any contracts that could limit our future flexibility to afford the elite center we need - and the only contracts that may be a probelm are Salo's and maybe Smith's. So these guys are probably both gone.
excellent post.

It relates somewhat to the reasons I'd like to see up to 7 or 8 guys moved by the deadline, even though I know it won't happen.

If a guy could move Oates, Cross, Smith, Laraque, Salo, Ferguson, Ulanov, and Isbister by the deadline, it opens up ~12.5 mil in salary. Some is gonna have to go to the guys you get back in trades, etc, but it leaves an awful lot of money around if you see a UFA C you like (maybe Conroy/Rolston/Zhamnov) or to trade for a C as well.

some of those guys you might like to keep (I'm personally thinking Smith and Ulanov) if you can sign them to extensions, but if you can get value for them in trades I'd think it makes more sense to cut the payroll as low a possible before the lockout by moving non-core players to open up the possibility of signing the best available guys for the roles you just emptied (enforcer, 5-7 D, goalie - in talking about Cross/Ulanov/Ferguson/Laraque/Salo)


Last edited by speeds: 02-26-2004 at 04:15 PM.
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Old
02-26-2004, 04:27 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerrick
Everyone keeps talking about how young the Oilers are, but they aren't as young as you think. Oates is 41, Ulanov is 34, Salo is 33, Cross is 33, Ferguson is 31, Staios is 30, and Smith is 30. These guys aren't kids and all or most of them could be gone next year. I doubt Staios or Cross will be going anywhere due to their contracts and Ulanov has been exceptional and deserves an extention.
The fact is, our CORE players are very young. A firesale regarding tyhe likes of Cross and Ferguson will fill our line-up with holes, but wouldn't bring anything back. Firesales only work for teams that have veterans that teams would actually want. What Matts is proposing is ludicrous--trading away Oilers over 25. That's not even a firesale, that's lunacy.

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02-26-2004, 04:29 PM
  #50
thome_26
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This Tanko is one of those emotional, bandwagon jumpers who doesn't stop and think. One of the youngest teams in the NHL with a top five pool of prospects is not going to rebuild. Stop and think before flapping. Doomed to Mediocrity?? Because the core of our players aren't at their peek, and are a few years away? We have enough good young kids that have good potential to last us for a decade and a half. We need to add to and tinker with this group of guys, not unload and rebuild with a firesale. We have the great base for a future VERY deep team with skill. Just with guys who are really young and saying that we get NOTHING for anybody older on out team (which obviously isn't going to happen):

Torres-Niinimaki-Hemsky
Mikhnov-Pouliot-Salmelainen
Rita-Stoll-McDonald

Now sure, I'm sure half of them will not turn out to be top players, but we still have Dvorak, York, Smyth, Moreau, Chimera, Horcoff who will all be with the team or we will have gotten something for them. On the blueline:

Brewer-Semenov
Woywitka-Lynch
Greene-Bergeron

Then guys like Staios and Smith will still either A) be around and playing good hockey or will have been moved for assets. We are extremely deep as it is, and we have two firsts, two seconds coming up in this years draft so we will only make ground or get further ahead of teams in the NHL.

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