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Old
11-04-2008, 12:45 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
They've remained competitive all these years because of Brodeur. They now go from an above average team to a below average one just by losing him.

Imagine the Rangers losing Lundqvist.
I'd take Weekes over Valiquette, sorry.

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11-04-2008, 12:45 PM
  #77
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I dislike Brodeur, but...

no stat can convince me that a player can put up consistently good numbers for as long as Brodeur has under numerous different coaches and with a multitude of different players in front of him and then be called a fraud.

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11-04-2008, 12:48 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
They've remained competitive all these years because of Brodeur. They now go from an above average team to a below average one just by losing him.

Imagine the Rangers losing Lundqvist.
No. I refuse to imagine this scenario...IT WON'T HAPPEN

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Old
11-04-2008, 12:49 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by HanktasticVoyage35 View Post
Not sure how many of you have seen this...it was linked on the main forum before..

http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/

Basically a recreational goalie turned statistician who tries to prove how Brodeur was overrated and just a product of the system. A lot of interesting stats he compiled. They all seem a least somewhat relevant. It will be interesting to see now if Weekes can keep the Devils in the mix as to whether it's the system or if Brodeur is just really that good. This guy will argue that if hall of famer Brodeur was solely responsible for keeping the Devils afloat, there is no reason for them to stay competitive with him out for an extended period of time.
No, he won't argue that for 2008. This defense is nothing like the Devils defense of past, as billyH2O already pointed out.

I'm a regular reader of that blog and I love his approach, even if it is slightly biased against Marty at times. At least it makes you think.

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Old
11-04-2008, 12:51 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
no stat can convince me that a player can put up consistently good numbers for as long as Brodeur has under numerous different coaches and with a multitude of different players in front of him and then be called a fraud.
Just read it a little bit. Chances are the post about expected shutouts and an earlier post about shot quality neutral % will at least change the way you view goaltending stats.

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11-04-2008, 01:03 PM
  #81
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I read a couple sentences. But, you just don't win as much as he does for so long due to the system. Further, it's tough to maintain the same system with different coaches, different players and a different game over 15+ seasons. You don't just get by if you're not that good. It just doesn't logically happen.

Further, he cites his poor save % as an example. OK, Brodeur doesn't have a great save %. That is the law of small numbers. Of course his save % over the last couple seasons has been better as he's faced more shots. Again, the law of small numbers. Of course it also cites his backups doing just as well - which each season seems to be about a 5-6 game sample, which to me is not statistically relevant. For it to be statistically relevant it would have to be about the same amount of games, which in this case is 100% impossible.

Again, I'm not sure I can be convinced statistically that Brodeur's a fraud. In the end, he was in net for a heck of a lot of games as well as a heck of a lot of wins. In the end, he made the saves he needed to make, and that's what the better goalies do sometimes. The timing of the save, the type of save, etc. He got the job done and that's all you can say about him.

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Old
11-04-2008, 01:25 PM
  #82
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Brodeur certainly isn't a "fraud". And in the end allot of things is about unfair stats. Its not like there is other great players out there who have benefitted from beeing at the right place.

But IMO its nuts to talk about him as one of the best hockeyplayers ever. He have never even been the best player in the league for one season. There is plenty of goalies who have won the Hart atleast once, Brodeur got zero. During Brodeurs prime Hasek outplayed him by a wide margin.

Brodeur have played for the best defensive team in the league during the majority of his career. Brodeur have played for the most defensive team ever in the history of the league. That have helped his stats allot natrually. I mean Manny Fernandez had several great years in Minnesota, if he would have put together 10 of thoose in a row he also would have among the best stats ever. While everyone knows that Manny Fernandez isn't among the top 25 in the league even...

Brodeur is one of the better goalies ever thats for sure. Or atleast he deserves to be mentioned as one of them due to stats. But nobody will even know how his career would be if he had played for the 2nd most defensive team in the league, if he played for the 5th best defensive team in the league during the majority of his career.

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11-04-2008, 01:46 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Rangers2319 View Post
if my memory recalls weekes carried the canes to the finals when they lost against the redwings so dont under estimate the guy

but with brodeur out, lundqvist has a better shot at the vezina now
Apparently he played a few games in that PO, but less than half.
http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagu...009792002.html

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Old
11-04-2008, 01:54 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Ola View Post
...I mean Manny Fernandez had several great years in Minnesota, if he would have put together 10 of thoose in a row he also would have among the best stats ever. While everyone knows that Manny Fernandez isn't among the top 25 in the league even...

Brodeur is one of the better goalies ever thats for sure. Or atleast he deserves to be mentioned as one of them due to stats...
I come in peace, only wanted to point out one general thing when these arguements come up. I don't think stats are completely irrelevant, but some of the most important things to consider when rating greatness in any sport don't even HAVE stats attached to them. It's like the old "well if Mario or [fill in the blank with your favorite player] played as long as Gretzky..." argument. That's the point, they didn't! Where's the longevity stat? If it's Seasons Played, why doesn't it come up in the discussion, and for the rare times that it does, why is it considered an advantage to the player instead of a credit to him?

Your first paragraph debunks stats in general perfectly for me. But as for the second, as a blatant Devils fan, I'll tell ya'... the most important # to me when referencing Marty isn't 551, 103, or anything like that. It's 3.

As for the link (yeah, you know I couldn't resist reading!!), at least the top of the page comes right out there and says where he's coming from! But there's still that part about how "if he'd gotten the minutes Brodeur gets" or whatever... that's where he needs to figure in that "longevity rating" he hasn't quite calculated.

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11-04-2008, 01:54 PM
  #85
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I'm no Brodeur fan, but you don't like to see this happen to anyone. Tough break.

I think though that this means it's now a 3-team race in the division. The Devils aren't going to fall apart by any means, but do they have the horses to hang with the Rangers, Flyers and Pens? Weekes is a consummate professional and he has alot of experience in goal (he did go to the finals afterall), but this is just a really tough blow for them.

I think they may struggle, but I just can't count out a team like that.

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Old
11-04-2008, 01:57 PM
  #86
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Sam Weinman has posted that Shanny to Philly seems pretty likely. Link on his site.

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11-04-2008, 02:01 PM
  #87
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CMac...

I've often thought of the relevance of the number "3", as if an individual's career should be based so much on his ability to win a cup. To me, it then becomes a bit subjective - as in, what did he do during that Cup run, and compare him to the next guy (since everything is relevant) and say, was that guy a great player on bad teams? If Luongo never wins the Cup, are people going to start saying that Cam Ward is a better player? "3" is part of it, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

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11-04-2008, 02:07 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
Again, I'm not sure I can be convinced statistically that Brodeur's a fraud. In the end, he was in net for a heck of a lot of games as well as a heck of a lot of wins. In the end, he made the saves he needed to make, and that's what the better goalies do sometimes. The timing of the save, the type of save, etc. He got the job done and that's all you can say about him.
He's not trying to prove that Brodeur's a fraud, he's trying to prove that Brodeur isn't one of the top three goaltenders of all-time. That's just an over-the-top title of his blog. Several of his stats indicate that Marty is one of the better goalies to play the game. But I've seen Hasek in his prime, and I've seen Marty in his prime, and in terms of ability - Hasek was better, and it's not even close.

One thing I will say is that in the non-trapezoid era, Brodeur's ability to handle the puck and make a quick outlet was so instrumental in the Devils' defensive scheme. It's still pretty important, but back then dumping the puck was usually not an option.

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Old
11-04-2008, 02:10 PM
  #89
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After all these years I think this is the first time that Brodeur has ever missed an extended period of playing time. I never could understand how every team would lose their goalie at least once in a while except for the Devils and Brodeur.

I'm not jumping for joy that he's injured, but it's kind of one of those it's about time things. The guy has never played less than 67 games in a season except in his rookie year & the lockout year.

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11-04-2008, 02:11 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
I've often thought of the relevance of the number "3", as if an individual's career should be based so much on his ability to win a cup. To me, it then becomes a bit subjective - as in, what did he do during that Cup run, and compare him to the next guy (since everything is relevant) and say, was that guy a great player on bad teams? If Luongo never wins the Cup, are people going to start saying that Cam Ward is a better player? "3" is part of it, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
I agree 100%. What you said is exactly my point (although, as I've proven, I get a bit long-winded and tend to lose the point whilst typing).

To me as a Devils fan, the 3 is the only stat that matters and the belief that Marty is the best ever, coming from me, can't be proven or disproven by stats. If he played for anyone else, I don't even know if I'd feel that way (and, as is discussed frequently, none of us know if he'd be as legendary as he is).

I guess what I'm trying to say is "3" is just one stat, and all of the stats in the world can never tell the whole story. He's just a guy who has been there for what seems like an eternity and has always made me say, "holy ****, what in the world would we do without this guy" while at the games. You know?

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11-04-2008, 02:16 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Tim Daily View Post
Just read it a little bit. Chances are the post about expected shutouts and an earlier post about shot quality neutral % will at least change the way you view goaltending stats.
I've read that blog, and the guy never takes into account Brodeur's puck handling skills. Brodeur may not be much better save % wise vs other top goalies but his puck handling has always set him apart from other goalies. He plays like another defenseman back there and clears pucks better than any defenseman that ever played for jersey. His passes are better too. If Brodeur was a defenseman, he would win a norris. If he was a forward, he probably would be a high scoring one.

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11-04-2008, 02:37 PM
  #92
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I think Brodeur has had the best career as a goalie, but I'd rank Hasek and Roy both ahead of him in terms of skill and in terms of most dominant at their position.

That said, Hasek has two more Vezinas and, more importantly, has won two Hart Trophies. And he did all of this in about 200 games less (735 vs 968 for Brodeur)

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11-04-2008, 02:42 PM
  #93
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Moon...

it's interesting how facing few amounts of shots can actually hurt your save %. I called it the law of small numbers. I don't have a full study on it, but I tested it out on Henke. He had a .912 save % last year - not great, but fine. If you look at the games he played in which he faced 22 or less shots (arbitrary number that seemed small in my opinion), you will note that his save % was .884 in those 24 games. The reasoning obviously is it's tough to save every shot even if you're only facing 20 shots. If you give up two goals in 20 shots, you're at 90%. Due to the small number of shots, any goal given up has a greater impact on the overall number. I'd venture to guess that in games in which Brodeur faced a greater amount of shots that he may have a higher save percentage.

Tim - I don't dispute that Brodeur's not the greatest of all time. I didn't realize that was part of the argument. The website was brodeur is a fraud, so it implied to me that he wasn't trying to dispel the notion that he's the greatest of all time, rather that he's the most overrated of all time. And personally, I don't think he's the latter. For years I argued that he played in a great system and that he was a product of Lemaire, Stevens, etc. But, unfortunately I made that argument for years and I thought I was starting to sound silly because each season he'd do the same thing. He'd start 70+. Win the vast majority. Give up few in the vast majority in them. And in the games I watched, he seemed to make the clutch saves when he had to in tight spots. So I stopped aruging and turned the other way against what I wanted to believe. And here I am, actually defending Brodeur. I feel so dirty.

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11-04-2008, 02:44 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by NYR6814 View Post
I'd take Weekes over Valiquette, sorry.
Give Weekes a few more games before you say that. Got a feeling he'll come crashing down hard.

Prediction: 2.95-3.05 Gaa.
.890-.895% sp.

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11-04-2008, 02:54 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by CMac17 View Post
I come in peace, only wanted to point out one general thing when these arguements come up. I don't think stats are completely irrelevant, but some of the most important things to consider when rating greatness in any sport don't even HAVE stats attached to them. It's like the old "well if Mario or [fill in the blank with your favorite player] played as long as Gretzky..." argument. That's the point, they didn't! Where's the longevity stat? If it's Seasons Played, why doesn't it come up in the discussion, and for the rare times that it does, why is it considered an advantage to the player instead of a credit to him?

Your first paragraph debunks stats in general perfectly for me. But as for the second, as a blatant Devils fan, I'll tell ya'... the most important # to me when referencing Marty isn't 551, 103, or anything like that. It's 3.

As for the link (yeah, you know I couldn't resist reading!!), at least the top of the page comes right out there and says where he's coming from! But there's still that part about how "if he'd gotten the minutes Brodeur gets" or whatever... that's where he needs to figure in that "longevity rating" he hasn't quite calculated.
Good points all around.

And something would be wrong if NJD fans didn't think Brodeur was one of the best goalies ever.

I just don't agree with that. To me he have always been a part of the Devils, he have never been the Devils...

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11-04-2008, 03:01 PM
  #96
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I'm no Brodeur fan, but you don't like to see this happen to anyone. Tough break.

I think though that this means it's now a 3-team race in the division. The Devils aren't going to fall apart by any means, but do they have the horses to hang with the Rangers, Flyers and Pens? Weekes is a consummate professional and he has alot of experience in goal (he did go to the finals afterall), but this is just a really tough blow for them.

I think they may struggle, but I just can't count out a team like that.
Actually I'm pretty pleased, we lost richter and sucked for the next 7 years, Islanders lost DP for god knows how long, NJ's turn I think.

Oh and imagine he couldn't come back and get the wins/SO record? Couldn't think of anything more amusing than that.

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11-04-2008, 03:03 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by HAPPY HOUR View Post
Give Weekes a few more games before you say that. Got a feeling he'll come crashing down hard.

Prediction: 2.95-3.05 Gaa.
.890-.895% sp.
It's not a knock on Valiquette, I just prefer Weekes. I think he's more reliable.

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11-04-2008, 03:05 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by HAPPY HOUR View Post
Give Weekes a few more games before you say that. Got a feeling he'll come crashing down hard.

Prediction: 2.95-3.05 Gaa.
.890-.895% sp.
Just what i was thinking. Weekes is a great backup, but i just don't think he is starter material. I think the Devils will have a difficult time staying in the playoff picture while Brodeur is out of the lineup. But if they can stay close to that 8th spot, they will certainly have a chance at making it if he comes back 100% and doesn't take to long to get back into game shape. As happy as i am to see him out for an extended period of time, i still have the feeling that team will find a way to survive.

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11-04-2008, 03:07 PM
  #99
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It's not a knock on Valiquette, I just prefer Weekes. I think he's more reliable.
Hopefully we will never have to see how reliable Valiquette could be over a long stretch.

We have all seen how inconsistant Weekes can be. The Devils D is not as stellar as it was 5-10 years ago either. They will be a borderline playoff team IMO.

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11-04-2008, 03:25 PM
  #100
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I used to think Weekes was a better starter than backup and had trouble making the transition. That doesn't mean I think he'll do well - it's tough to say that since he hasn't been a starter in an while. Also, you don't know if he'll stay healthy through 50 starts. But, some teams rally behind things like this and some goalies rise to the occasion, even goalies whose better days are behind them, or when there wasn't better days and they came out of nowhere to play one great season. Weekes is a good goalie. The question is can he be a good goalie for 50-something games.

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