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Game #21 - Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators - 7:30 SBP - SNET (o and e) HD, RDS

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Old
11-28-2008, 01:41 PM
  #701
Hossa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arglebargle View Post
Ribeiro's career S% is 15.8%, so he had an outlier season last year. You cherry picked a small sample size and used that to discredit statistical analysis. Ribeiro is actually at 5.7% this year, so he's regressing back to the mean.

Goals aren't solely a function of S%, you're right, they're the product of S% and SOG. What I've noticed is that a player's S% is usually pretty similar from season to season. His SOG/G usually increases a little bit every year until he's around 30 and then it tails off. SOG/G is also pretty dependant on TOI/G, obviously, because the longer a player is on the ice, the more chances he'll have to shoot.

We've watched him play this year and seen that he's not been scoring when he shoots, which is reflected in his S% (4.0% this year, 9.2% career) . He's been going through a cold slump recently, but what he's played like recently is not what he's been like the last 3 seasons.
My point was more general than you're making it. Shooting percentage, like plus/minus, is an ambiguous and incomplete statistic that may help you frame a question about a given player's goal scoring or defensive ability, but it doesn't answer your question. At best it can complement your reasoning.

True, I picked the most extreme example of Ribeiro, and you are right in that last year's unusually high S% compared to the norm for him is revealing, as it would be for Kelly. But Ribeiro compared to Alexander Ovechkin or Chris Kelly is IMO a borderline useless statistic if trying to make an argument about goal scoring ability, and that's all I was trying to say.

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11-28-2008, 02:17 PM
  #702
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What was the attendance last night.

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Old
11-28-2008, 02:21 PM
  #703
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Originally Posted by wjhl2009fan View Post
What was the attendance last night.
in the area of 19,700.

Around where it has been all year.

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11-28-2008, 02:24 PM
  #704
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Originally Posted by SilverSeven View Post
in the area of 19,700.

Around where it has been all year.
But did it look that full.

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11-28-2008, 02:25 PM
  #705
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hossa View Post
My point was more general than you're making it. Shooting percentage, like plus/minus, is an ambiguous and incomplete statistic that may help you frame a question about a given player's goal scoring or defensive ability, but it doesn't answer your question. At best it can complement your reasoning.

True, I picked the most extreme example of Ribeiro, and you are right in that last year's unusually high S% compared to the norm for him is revealing, as it would be for Kelly. But Ribeiro compared to Alexander Ovechkin or Chris Kelly is IMO a borderline useless statistic if trying to make an argument about goal scoring ability, and that's all I was trying to say.
Random question, but do shots directed at the goal get factored in anywhere? I don't think they were but I'm not sure.

I'm kind of curious what shooting percentages would be for guys like Fisher and Vermette if that were the case.

Does anyone keep the shots directed at goal stat, outside of for the team as a whole?

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11-28-2008, 02:52 PM
  #706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle747 View Post
good point. I feel like Kelly is way overpaid as well. I'd trade him in a hurry, - he is replaceable and every 1M in cap space we save is important.

I do think he is a fine player - we just have too many 3rd liners.
We need an injection of 2nd line talent
We have $4M left this season (now probably worth $6M in contract value) and $11.4M available next season with almost the whole team signed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jasper View Post
Kelly is definitely a horrible finisher, I don't care what the stats say, my eyes tell me differently. He must miss the net on half his attempts so as not to have the shot count.
I checked last seasons numbers: he missed 1 less shot on goal than Schubert did last season... while playing less games and taking the majority of his shots from within 15 feet as opposed to over 60 feet out... and Schubert takes a lot crap for missing the net!

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Old
11-28-2008, 02:54 PM
  #707
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Originally Posted by Exemplify View Post
Well I was just asking because to be honest it sounded more like Leafs than Sens from my side of the country. Was a good game regardless and it's nice to see our team finally turning itself around.
It was definitely more "GO LEAFS GO" then it was "GO SENS GO".

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11-28-2008, 02:56 PM
  #708
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Originally Posted by jordan7hm View Post
Random question, but do shots directed at the goal get factored in anywhere? I don't think they were but I'm not sure.

I'm kind of curious what shooting percentages would be for guys like Fisher and Vermette if that were the case.

Does anyone keep the shots directed at goal stat, outside of for the team as a whole?
A "shot on goal" must either be saved..or go in as a goal. Shots sent wide or too high do not count. I have never seen a stat that counted "shots in the general direction of the goal"

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11-28-2008, 02:57 PM
  #709
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Originally Posted by Bass Lee View Post
It was definitely more "GO LEAFS GO" then it was "GO SENS GO".
From where I was, Id disagree.

It really depends on where you are in the arena and where the mics are placed for TV.

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Old
11-28-2008, 02:57 PM
  #710
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Originally Posted by Bloggins View Post
A "shot on goal" must either be saved..or go in as a goal. Shots sent wide or too high do not count. I have never seen a stat that counted "shots in the general direction of the goal"
He wasnt asking about shots on goal, but rather shots.

They get counted by someone, because announcers bring them up sometimes.

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Old
11-28-2008, 03:01 PM
  #711
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Originally Posted by SilverSeven View Post
From where I was, Id disagree.

It really depends on where you are in the arena and where the mics are placed for TV.
Well I assume you were there, I was only watching it on the Ottawa tv feed.

Which would explain why we both heard more Leafs chants then if we watched the same channel, the mics.

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Old
11-28-2008, 03:03 PM
  #712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jordan7hm View Post
Random question, but do shots directed at the goal get factored in anywhere? I don't think they were but I'm not sure.

I'm kind of curious what shooting percentages would be for guys like Fisher and Vermette if that were the case.

Does anyone keep the shots directed at goal stat, outside of for the team as a whole?
NHL keeps track of shots as well as missed shots and attempts blocked. They can be found in the Event Summary for each game. In their stats section, you can find shots, and missed shots (under the HITS-Players section). No sign of the attempts blocked as a total statistic though.

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11-29-2008, 02:52 AM
  #713
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oh we won *slides ribcage under the credenza*

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11-29-2008, 07:05 AM
  #714
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YAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH WE WON!!!

Lafs sux da chode of a dead dogg!!!

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11-29-2008, 10:17 AM
  #715
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Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
YAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH WE WON!!!

Lafs sux da chode of a dead dogg!!!
Little known fact, they recently changed the tap water in the GTA to taste like Sundin's semen to simulate the humiliation and ****** Sundin did upon the franchise last trade deadline day.

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Old
11-29-2008, 12:25 PM
  #716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hossa View Post
QFT.

Kelly has no finishing ability, no matter how well he's playing. And I don't care what shooting percentage says, to use that statistic to try and prove something about finishing ability is ridiculous. If that were the case, Mike Ribeiro was the best goal scorer in the league last year, BY FAR. He scored on over 25% of his shots and nobody else in the league had higher than 21%. Ovechkin for comparison was at 14.6%.

Kelly has and will always have at best third line finishing ability. That much is obvious when he's on the third line, and confirmed when he gets a chance as a support player with Speatley.
Are you worried that too many people have been thinking Kelly may actually be our 2nd line answer, but given that chance, we can see he he is really not cut out for it, but belongs on the 3rd line with the player he has so much chemistry?

I would agree about the shooting percentage stat. Right along with the +/- stat. Surely we can at minimum separate + from - and pro-rate it.

I think Kelly is quite comfortable as a 3rd liner who has the speed, smarts, and work ethic to fill in on top lines in a pinch and succeed there. Plus he provides much of the defensive strength that is currently defining our identity.

So im really at a loss to understand the perpetual spamming of what feels like kelly bashing, unless you are hoping to provoke, or trying to distract from the backlash elsewhere. It makes little sense to me

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