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2009 Roster Moves and Contract Talks. Contract Numbers (Post #1/#826).

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Old
01-15-2009, 11:57 AM
  #126
SlavaKozlov
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
All of those contracts were signed when the cap was growing in leaps and bounds. That's the beauty of the cap system and linkage. If revenues stop growing, or even fall, guess what the cap and player salaries have to do? Also come down. There might be teams who have real trouble carrying those big contracts if the cap does decrease.

The Wings trust is a lot smarter than that. They don't want to be handcuffed by the system because someone signed big contracts 2 yrs ago. It isn't at all comparable. Nothing says players will get raises every year regardless of any economic consideration. They have the capped system to thank for that.
The problem is, agents only see salary numbers and will fight hard to get their client paid and use comparables. The Wings trust will try and use their smarts, but that is only one side of the table.

*edit* Add-on: I think a happy middle ground will be reached and Z will be able to get signed for a reasonable price, but I think people who actually believe he will have a smaller cap number than Datsyuk are kidding themselves.

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01-15-2009, 12:14 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by SlavaKozlov View Post
The problem is, agents only see salary numbers and will fight hard to get their client paid and use comparables. The Wings trust will try and use their smarts, but that is only one side of the table.

*edit* Add-on: I think a happy middle ground will be reached and Z will be able to get signed for a reasonable price, but I think people who actually believe he will have a smaller cap number than Datsyuk are kidding themselves.
I believe there is almost no chance he takes less than Datsyk. At the minimum the same.

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01-15-2009, 02:45 PM
  #128
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Thanks to A2Y for pointing out this recent Eliotte Friedman blog article.

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Even Detroit, the model franchise when it comes to drafting, developing and getting players to take hometown discounts, has team-altering decisions to make. Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen and Jiri Hudler (restricted) are all up, and Zetterberg is testing the Red Wings’ limits. (They gave Hossa a one-year deal equal to Nicklas Lidstrom’s $7.45 million, and a 10-year, $75 million offer to Zetterberg has apparently been rejected.)
and he took the time to post a comment on the blog posting about his story at A2Y:

Quote:
Here’s what I can tell you:

I heard about that offer very early in the season. Obviously, I can’t say where it came from. However, I will say the source is someone I trust. (Believe me, you hear a lot of stuff in this league, so you have to be careful.) I can also tell you that the organization was asked about it, although politely declined to comment.

The reason I wrote “apparently rejected” is that I’m not sure the Red Wings/Zetterberg conversations have reached a stage where formal papers have been drawn up. The two sides have talked back-and-forth about what it will take, and the key here is that $7.5 million per season sounds like it might not be enough.

In the Ken Campbell article quoted here, the number is $8.25. Ken is very good at what he does and I’ve heard from others that this is the kind of number in Zetterberg’s ballpark.

I’d heard that Detroit was willing to make the deal longer so the total salary was larger, but really doesn’t want to go over eight per season, for the reasons outlined in my blog.

What it comes down to is that Zetterberg has a choice. He could definitely get $8.25 million, maybe nine, on the open market. But is he really willing to do that, and leave a near-perfect situation?

Thanks for reading.

EF

Posted by Elliotte Friedman from Toronto on 01/15/09 at 02:42 PM ET
This is some interesting info for Red Wings fans in the very interesting cap article by Friedman.

This summer will cement Holland's legacy once and for all. If he can pull of yet another set of great contracts with our stars and keep the winning nucleus of the team together, they will name schools after him (to quote the Giant Headed "Genius", Brian Burke).

All this debate about Pavel vs. Hank is getting circular as well. Datsyuk is my favourite player in the NHL today, but heading into this season I felt Zetterberg is the best player on the team. Often times his line faces the opposition's top scoring line, and as a result Zetterberg's scoring numbers suffer.

Datsyuk's line is often left the opposition's checking (shutdown) line to deal with, something our deft-deking Russian has shown an aptitude in carving paths through with the puck.

We cannot decide which lines other teams will try to match against Z or D, but the trend remains that Z gets the best scoring line, and D gets the best checking line.

If the roles were reversed, we may see a depression in Pavel's numbers compared to last season and not Zetterberg's. Given Pavel's insecurity about speaking English, Zetterberg seems the natural choice for next team leader, and should not be simply trashed because his numbers are down this year.


Last edited by VooX: 01-15-2009 at 03:24 PM.
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Old
01-15-2009, 03:05 PM
  #129
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UPDATE on above story (again thanks to A2Y for originally linking the diggers):

From Khan at mlive

Quote:
"No, it's not (accurate). Usually I don't want to comment on that but that's not true,'' Zetterberg said Thursday. "I haven't turned down an offer of $75 million.''

Zetterberg wouldn't say how far apart the sides are in negotiations.

"We're talking, as we're getting closer and closer to the trading deadline I think the talks will increase and hopefully we can find a deal,'' he said.

As for Friedman's claim that Zetterberg is testing the Wings' limits, it should be noted that Pavel Datsyuk and his agent, Gary Greenstein, did that several times during his various contract negotiations and the sides still were able to get a deal done every time.
The plot thickens... but I think most of us have faith that Zetterberg will return (at least I do). It's Hudler, Franzen, Hossa, and Sammy that are the unknowns for me.

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01-15-2009, 03:37 PM
  #130
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I believe Z a hell of a lot more than Elliot Friedmans blog.

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01-15-2009, 03:41 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Heaton View Post
I believe Z a hell of a lot more than Elliot Friedmans blog.
As do I. I assume the Diggers were caught off guard by the quote in the Friedman article. Not only did Khan write an article, so did Miss Helene "I Just Spoke to..." St. James refuting the claim, both quoting Zetterberg's denial.

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01-15-2009, 03:42 PM
  #132
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Selective leak of information? Nothing like a bit of public pressure to smoke out news on highly anticipated moves?

 
Old
01-15-2009, 03:44 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Selective leak of information? Nothing like a bit of public pressure to smoke out news on highly anticipated moves?
Except that Holland plays his cards very tight to the chest. Maybe the MSM were hoping someone in Hank's camp would let the cat out of the bag with a little pressure as I don't think anyone expects to hear anything too concrete out of Holland.

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Old
01-15-2009, 03:52 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Selective leak of information? Nothing like a bit of public pressure to smoke out news on highly anticipated moves?
If I weren't as smart as I am I'd make a list of all the Red Wings Fugu HATES. The list is growing.


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01-15-2009, 03:56 PM
  #135
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I think it comes down to semantics. What if Holland said something like "So, Hank. What do you think of 10 years and $75 million?". Is that technically an offer? No, it's just an idea. If Z said "I don't think it is enough, Kenny" then is he turning it down an offer? Technicall, no.

But in reality it would still make what Elliot Friedman wrote pretty accurate. I think there's too much consistency in the various reports to discount them all. It does appear Z is looking for $8M or more per season, while Holland is holding steady at Lidstrom levels or less. At this point I'm not concerned. Either something will get done, or Z was too expensive to keep. If it's the latter, it would be unfortunate but there are other fish in the sea.

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01-15-2009, 04:30 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
I think it comes down to semantics. What if Holland said something like "So, Hank. What do you think of 10 years and $75 million?". Is that technically an offer? No, it's just an idea. If Z said "I don't think it is enough, Kenny" then is he turning it down an offer? Technicall, no.

But in reality it would still make what Elliot Friedman wrote pretty accurate. I think there's too much consistency in the various reports to discount them all. It does appear Z is looking for $8M or more per season, while Holland is holding steady at Lidstrom levels or less. At this point I'm not concerned. Either something will get done, or Z was too expensive to keep. If it's the latter, it would be unfortunate but there are other fish in the sea.
If that's true Zetterberg is basically wanting 8M per season in his late 30s. That's simply absurd. I have to imagine that a 7.5M/10yr would be frontloaded. That whole scenario smells off. 7.5M/season is damn close to 8M, especially when you are getting term into your late 30s as well.

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01-15-2009, 04:52 PM
  #137
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If that's true Zetterberg is basically wanting 8M per season in his late 30s. That's simply absurd. I have to imagine that a 7.5M/10yr would be frontloaded. That whole scenario smells off. 7.5M/season is damn close to 8M, especially when you are getting term into your late 30s as well.
To be honest, I still think that an average of $7.5 million per season is too high.
I'm hoping on a $7 million deal

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01-15-2009, 05:04 PM
  #138
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If I weren't as smart as I am I'd make a list of all the Red Wings Fugu HATES. The list is growing.

You think I hate Z, Heaton?

I love the guy, and would be extremely sad to see him leave. I just cannot buy into the idea that any player isn't replaceable. Heck, when Feds left, I was truly bummed. Yet the team found a way to move on without a guy with a couple of Selkes, some Cups, Peason, et cetera, et cetera.... If Zetterberg is realistically worth $10 million per year right now, do you just pay him? (Although that would hard to prove seeing who the team captais IS at the moment.)

Holland really has telegraphed what he believes. He has accepted a value for Z in the $8+ million category right now. What we don't know is how many years he believes Z is worth that $8+ million-- assuming similar cap levels (the other unknown that has nothing to do with Z per se)... Does he think 4-5 is fine, and then it has to come down, but come down to what? How steep is that drop?

He also knows that if he pays Z $8 million or so for 5 years, he's lost two other guys for sure. He's trying to get Z to buy into the idea that the Wings give him that $8 million now, but add enough years at the end to lessen the cap hit. THAT's where we're stuck. No guy approaching 30 is worth a ten year contract that nearly averages what the 5 yr value would be at current market comparables.

 
Old
01-15-2009, 05:07 PM
  #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
You think I hate Z, Heaton?
Aren't emocations supposed to remove all doubt? No, I don't seriously think you hate Z.

Quote:
I love the guy, and would be extremely sad to see him leave. I just cannot buy into the idea that any player isn't replaceable. Heck, when Feds left, I was truly bummed. Yet the team found a way to move on without a guy with a couple of Selkes, some Cups, Peason, et cetera, et cetera.... If Zetterberg is realistically worth $10 million per year right now, do you just pay him? (Although that would hard to prove seeing who the team captais IS at the moment.)
When Feds left he was leaving his prime. Z is entering his. I'm sure if Z finds himself to be too expense to stay the Wings will find a way to stay on top but they won't find another Zetterberg like in the Fedorov situation since Z was already right there.

Quote:
Holland really has telegraphed what he believes. He has accepted a value for Z in the $8+ million category right now. What we don't know is how many years he believes Z is worth that $8+ million-- assuming similar cap levels (the other unknown that has nothing to do with Z per se)... Does he think 4-5 is fine, and then it has to come down, but come down to what? How steep is that drop?

He also knows that if he pays Z $8 million or so for 5 years, he's lost two other guys for sure. He's trying to get Z to buy into the idea that the Wings give him that $8 million now, but add enough years at the end to lessen the cap hit. THAT's where we're stuck. No guy approaching 30 is worth a ten year contract that nearly averages what the 5 yr value would be at current market comparables.
Pretty much. Which is why in the end I think Franzen becomes the odd man out since I don't believe he'll be one of those 'best deals'.

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01-15-2009, 05:17 PM
  #140
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No, I think Z is in his prime right now. He entered about two years ago, and last year was definitely a player in his peak years. In fact, if you pull out the forward production charts as a function of age, you'll see that a 29 yo forward is already entering the declining stage. (If memory serves, the peak years are 23-28 or so.)

He's even off his pace this year, so one can realistically expect his 85-95 pts per year clip for another 3-4 years. I just don't see him getting to 110 or 120 which would indicate he hasn't reached his peak.

Regarding Franzen, I was just thinking after arguing with zecke in the other thread about Filppula... I'd rather free that money up and keep Franzen, and try Helm out for the third line. You can't keep everybody, but I like Franzen's size and scoring knack, something that I think is harder to replace than an energetic third line, checking center.

 
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01-15-2009, 05:26 PM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
Regarding Franzen, I was just thinking after arguing with zecke in the other thread about Filppula... I'd rather free that money up and keep Franzen, and try Helm out for the third line. You can't keep everybody, but I like Franzen's size and scoring knack, something that I think is harder to replace than an energetic third line, checking center.
While that makes sense, I'm skeptical as to whether the Wings will be able to continue with Datsyuk and Z on separate lines. If Hossa leaves I think we'll go back to the same formula we had before him. In that case Filppula becomes the 2nd line center again.

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01-15-2009, 05:30 PM
  #142
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Any deal longer than 7 years would be stupid on Holland's part, I don't care whether it's Zetterberg or the son of Zeus.

Z is worth 7 million a year based on his play this year, 7.5 I could live with also, but if he gets 7.5 it better not be more than 6 years.

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01-15-2009, 07:01 PM
  #143
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Hank is 28. A deal until he is 38 is OK by me.

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01-15-2009, 07:05 PM
  #144
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Hank is 28. A deal until he is 38 is OK by me.
A bit long, unless the money is tapering off towards the end.

38 is a bit old for a top flight forward.

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01-15-2009, 07:16 PM
  #145
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I wouldn't mind that Z is off his pace right now. When I see him play this season, I just have this sense that he is going to be a huge player again in playoff. I dunno... maybe he is lacking some passion (compared to last year) and details in his game? If anyone is emotionally drained a lot from last cup run, I would suspect Z is definately one. Although it would be nice seeing his name on top of NHL scoring list, it's not like we desperately need his production right now.

As for his contract negotiation, there are just too many things to consider this year. So Im gonna just trust Wings management will do the smart thing.

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01-15-2009, 08:35 PM
  #146
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If Zetterberg wants 10 years I think he has to accept the 6.7 million a year that Datsyuk makes and anything above that I don't think is good for the team with the unpredictability of the cap.

I don't care about his conn smythe or his slightly better playoff performance if you look at the past 2 years, bottom line the players are equivalent to me and if I had to give the edge to one I'd give it to Pavel. He is going to get 3 extra years on Pavel, so he should be happy to make 6.7 million a year on this team for 10 years.

If he wants 7 or more you have to look at shorter term deals imo

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01-15-2009, 10:19 PM
  #147
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Any deal longer than 7 years would be stupid on Holland's part, I don't care whether it's Zetterberg or the son of Zeus.

Z is worth 7 million a year based on his play this year, 7.5 I could live with also, but if he gets 7.5 it better not be more than 6 years.
Agreed. Zetterberg is not better than Datsyuk, never has been. He may have been equal, but he has never played outstandingly better than Datsyuk for an entire season. One postseason does not make a career.

I have no problem with Hank making more than Datsyuk. Players make more now than they did when Datsyuk inked the $6.7mil per year. But Zetterberg is not worth more than $7.5 at all. And he could get way more than that on the open market, but would he live up to it? I dont think so. Especially if it is over 7 years for that amount per year.

10 years at $6.7 per, with a front loaded deal where he gets $9-10 per in his first few years. Or 6-7 years at $7-7.5 per. Take it or leave it. Leave it and sign Hossa (if he is willing to take less than Z would), Franzen and Hudler long term.

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Old
01-15-2009, 10:53 PM
  #148
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Agreed. Zetterberg is not better than Datsyuk, never has been. He may have been equal, but he has never played outstandingly better than Datsyuk for an entire season. One postseason does not make a career.
Datsyuk has never played outstandingly better than Z for an entire season either. Last year Z was better for the first half and Datsyuk better in the 2nd half. It could be argued (read: not fact) that Z has outperformed Datsyuk in every post season. And yes, I know there's tons of variables.

It's a fun debate and good problem to have.

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01-15-2009, 11:02 PM
  #149
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The way I see it, this summer will be the beginning of the Cap leveling out the Red Wings dominance. Sooner or later the Cap hits everybody, and the Wings are no exception.

Hossa, Zetterberg, Hudler, and Franzen are all having big years and are all going to be in very high demand. Hudler may be the most under rated player in hockey and he would be well within his rights to try to get a big deal like comparable players as Brierre and Savard.

Zetterberg will get 7-9, Hossa 7-9, Hudler 5-7, Franzen 5-7.

If everybody takes the minimum it's still 12 million more than what those 4 players combine for right now.

The way I see it, Detroit can keep one megastar and one star. They will most likely keep one of Zetterberg/Hossa and one of Hudler/Franzen.

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01-15-2009, 11:05 PM
  #150
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Hudler is actually a RFA so his leverage is a little less than the other guys. If Hudler gets 60-70 points Holland will use Cammalleri as a comparable and re-sign him to around 2.5m. That's if it gets to arbitration.

The only saving grace if we did lose Hudler is that we'd get something for him. The same can't be said for the UFA's.

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