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Panthers next game result algorithm

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Old
01-04-2009, 12:37 PM
  #1
Tuco
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Panthers next game result algorithm

Hi, I wonder if some of you programmers could make an algorithm that would solve the probabilities of win and loss for Panthers in their next game. Here are some of the factors I would suggest in the algorithm (invented by Tuco, you can suggest your own factors and probabilities):

P(W)=probability of Panthers Win in next game.
P(L)=probability of Panthers Loss in next game.
P(W)+P(L)=100%.
Strenght of factor are I, II and III, where I is strongest and III weakest.

Basic decision rules (I):
If Panthers has won last game, P(W)<P(L), P(W)=30% P(L)=70%.
If Panthers has lost last game, P(L)<P(W), P(L)=30% P(W)=70%.

If Panthers has won last 2 or more games, P(W)<P(L), P(W)=20% P(L)=80%.
If Panthers has lost last 2 or more games, P(L)<P(W), P(L)=20% P(W)=80%.

If Panthers has won last 3 or more games, P(W)<P(L), P(W)=10% P(L)=90%.
If Panthers has lost last 3 or more games, P(L)<P(W), P(L)=10% P(W)=90%.

Now, those decision rules are pretty normal to any team. Some Panther specific decision rules need to be added (II):

If the opposing team is 1-3 spots higher than Panthers in the standings P(L)=60% P(W)=40%.

If the game is important to the Panthers P(L)=70%, P(W)=30%.
If Panthers would "go over the hump" or move into a playoff spot should they win P(L)=90%, P(W)=10%.

If the game seems to be less important at this point P(W)=80%, P(L)=20%.
If the game seems to be less important and it's played during the last two months of the season P(W)=90%, P(L)=10%.

And finally (III)
If Panthers play against a team that is regarded better than them P(W)=60%, P(L)=40%.
If Panthers play against a team that is regarded worse than them P(W)=40%, P(L)=60%.

Anything else? What do you mathematicians think? Can this algorithm be done? Would it work?

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Old
01-04-2009, 01:51 PM
  #2
GoRatsGo
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...What?

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Old
01-04-2009, 01:57 PM
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Tuco
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gocatsgo538 View Post
...What?
Just thinking aloud here, trying to understand when our team seem to do well and when not. One could maybe place some money with the bookies based on something like this and make some money.... if you get it right.

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01-04-2009, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gocatsgo538 View Post
...What?
What he said.

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