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Old
01-06-2009, 02:51 PM
  #76
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My guesses for goal scoring over a whole season, if we were to play a more aggressive style, would be as follows:

Drury: 25-30
Naslund: 25-30
Zherdev: 25-30
Prucha: 20-25
Callahan: 20-25
Dawes: 20-25
Dubinsky: 15-20
Gomez: 15-20
Voros: 10-15

This is assuming that guys stay healthy and avoid frequent Renney benchings, and are able to maintain what I believe to be their top level of play.

I think the only team that had close to that scoring from forwards last year was Detroit.

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01-06-2009, 02:53 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by we want cup View Post
My guesses for goal scoring over a whole season, if we were to play a more aggressive style, would be as follows:

Drury: 25-30
Naslund: 25-30
Zherdev: 25-30
Prucha: 20-25
Callahan: 20-25
Dawes: 20-25
Dubinsky: 15-20
Gomez: 15-20
Voros: 10-15

This is assuming that guys stay healthy and avoid frequent Renney benchings, and are able to maintain what I believe to be their top level of play.
And with the non-aggressive style, they project out like this:

Drury: 22
Naslund: 28
Zherdev: 24
Callahan: 22
Dawes: 16
Dubinsky: 10
Voros: 16
Gomez: 17

I'll leave out Prucha as he has not played regularly. Voros, Dawes and Callahan are on pass for career highs. And the likes of Drury, Dubinsky and Gomez are numbers that are not based on them, "maintain[ing] what [you] believe to be their top level of play" So how much of a difference would this aggressive style really be? What are we really arguing>

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01-06-2009, 02:54 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
I think the only team that had close to that scoring from forwards last year was Detroit.
Look at what those players are on pace for right now:

http://tsn.ca/nhl/teams/roster/?hubname=nhl-rangers

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01-06-2009, 03:07 PM
  #79
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I think the bottom line is that I'm not sure what the difference between the style they're currently playing and the style everyone wants them to play. They skate up and down, the shoot, they do whatever. I guess they don't pressure as much, but perhaps the players they have can't keep the puck in the offensive zone for 60 seconds a shift. Perhaps they can't get to the loose pucks in front of the net. Perhaps they're not the best along the boards, or the grittiest in traffic, and this is what they have to play.

The interesting item is if this team had a PP that resembled the two seasons prior to last season, their goals for would be 2.73, which is better than their current 2.50 and I think people would be a bit more quiet about the goal scoring.

And unfortunately, we comment game by game. When an empty net like last night is scored, I'm sure people are talking about the stats being padded. Of course, this happens every night across the league and there aren't asterisks next to the goals socred by team or by player. It's a cheap goal, but it counts - just ask TGO.

I do believe that this team's PP should be better. I believe they have the horses, and that will solve some of this team's woes when it comes to scoring and that has zero to do with Renney's "defensive" system. As for Renney's system...honestly, I think more can be squeezed out of these players to get more offense. I believe that offensively, the lines probably can be managed better. BUT, I cannot say what that does for goals against. Much of it would still depend on Lundqvist, and that's the balance Renney's trying to find. I think he's a bit too crazy on his balancing act in terms of how he decides who plays with who, but in the end, it's really tough to say what happens to the defense if he tries to create more offense.

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01-06-2009, 03:10 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
And with the non-aggressive style, they project out like this:

Drury: 22
Naslund: 28
Zherdev: 24
Callahan: 22
Dawes: 16
Dubinsky: 10
Voros: 16
Gomez: 17

I'll leave out Prucha as he has not played regularly. Voros, Dawes and Callahan are on pass for career highs. And the likes of Drury, Dubinsky and Gomez are numbers that are not based on them, "maintain[ing] what [you] believe to be their top level of play" So how much of a difference would this aggressive style really be? What are we really arguing>
Interesting. Most are playing to their career averages and some are projected to exceed them.

If one wants to argue that Renney is not getting enough from these players, then fine, everyone's entitled to their opinion (and thats what it is, nothing more than an opinion). But when confronted with numbers like these, I dont see how one could argue that Renney is actually stiffling the offense.

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01-06-2009, 03:10 PM
  #81
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I think the bottom line is that I'm not sure what the difference between the style they're currently playing and the style everyone wants them to play. They skate up and down, the shoot, they do whatever. I guess they don't pressure as much, but perhaps the players they have can't keep the puck in the offensive zone for 60 seconds a shift. Perhaps they can't get to the loose pucks in front of the net. Perhaps they're not the best along the boards, or the grittiest in traffic, and this is what they have to play.

The interesting item is if this team had a PP that resembled the two seasons prior to last season, their goals for would be 2.73, which is better than their current 2.50 and I think people would be a bit more quiet about the goal scoring.

And unfortunately, we comment game by game. When an empty net like last night is scored, I'm sure people are talking about the stats being padded. Of course, this happens every night across the league and there aren't asterisks next to the goals socred by team or by player. It's a cheap goal, but it counts - just ask TGO.

I do believe that this team's PP should be better. I believe they have the horses, and that will solve some of this team's woes when it comes to scoring and that has zero to do with Renney's "defensive" system. As for Renney's system...honestly, I think more can be squeezed out of these players to get more offense. I believe that offensively, the lines probably can be managed better. BUT, I cannot say what that does for goals against. Much of it would still depend on Lundqvist, and that's the balance Renney's trying to find. I think he's a bit too crazy on his balancing act in terms of how he decides who plays with who, but in the end, it's really tough to say what happens to the defense if he tries to create more offense.
To me its simple. They are inconsistent up and down the roster. They're two big offensive additions are inconsistent Naslund because of age and Zherdev because that's what he's proven to be (not unlike Gomez and Drury). Or they're young.

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01-06-2009, 03:13 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
And with the non-aggressive style, they project out like this:

Drury: 22
Naslund: 28
Zherdev: 24
Callahan: 22
Dawes: 16
Dubinsky: 10
Voros: 16
Gomez: 17

I'll leave out Prucha as he has not played regularly. Voros, Dawes and Callahan are on pass for career highs. And the likes of Drury, Dubinsky and Gomez are numbers that are not based on them, "maintain[ing] what [you] believe to be their top level of play" So how much of a difference would this aggressive style really be? What are we really arguing>
A difference of about 40-50 goals all told. (And no, I don't think that they'd give up a comensurate number of goals - I think the defense & 9th-12th forwards would add another 5-10 goals and the team as a whole would give up 15-20 more against for about a net difference of about 30.)

My projections if we were playing the way we should be:

Drury: 34
Naslund: 31
Zherdev: 33
Callahan: 22
Dawes: 26
Dubinsky: 22
Voros (or Korpikoski): 10 (I actually mark him down because I think his "pace" is way overstated.)
Gomez: 19

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01-06-2009, 03:15 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
And with the non-aggressive style, they project out like this:

Drury: 22
Naslund: 28
Zherdev: 24
Callahan: 22
Dawes: 16
Dubinsky: 10
Voros: 16
Gomez: 17

I'll leave out Prucha as he has not played regularly. Voros, Dawes and Callahan are on pass for career highs. And the likes of Drury, Dubinsky and Gomez are numbers that are not based on them, "maintain[ing] what [you] believe to be their top level of play" So how much of a difference would this aggressive style really be? What are we really arguing>
Well if we take their current pace and take the difference between that and the average of my projections (for guys who aren't already near that pace), we'd see:

Drury: from 22 to 27 (5 goals)
Zherdev: from 24 to 17 (3 goals)
Dawes: from 16 to 23 goals (7 goals)
Dubinsky: from 10 to 17 goals (7 goals)

Individually, that translates into smaller gains for those guys individually, but as a whole, the team gains 22 goals from forwards. That's a 10% increase from last year.

Additionally, I would argue, having an attack oriented style would ease the pressure on our D. Instead of sitting back and trying to fend off the other team's rush, we would be focused on turning it around and stopping it from happening at all. We have seen that for the most part our D doesn't stand up well under pressure, but they frequently don't have many options for an outlet pass because the forwards are so deep in our zone. Notice that when Z is on the ice, he's always ready to get out of the zone, and the D always have someone to pass to. He does an ok job backchecking,and having one guy who is ready to burst out makes the D on the other team think twice before pinching.

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01-06-2009, 03:18 PM
  #84
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A net difference of about 40-50 goals all told. (And no, I don't think that they'd give up a comensurate number of goals - I think the defense & 9th-12th forwards would add another 5-10 goals and the team as a whole would give up 15-20 more against for about a net difference of about 30.)

My projections if we were playing the way we should be:

Drury: 34
Naslund: 31
Zherdev: 33
Callahan: 22
Dawes: 26
Dubinsky: 22
Voros (or Korpikoski): 10 (I actually mark him down because I think his "pace" is way overstated.)
Gomez: 19
So basically you're talking about levels that Callahan, Zherdev, Dawes, and Dubinsky have never sniffed in the NHL, a level Naslund has not reached since 2005-2006, a level that Drury has reached once in his career and Gomez who is two goals off your projection.

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01-06-2009, 03:27 PM
  #85
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You mean the line changing that resulted in a 4-0 victory?

You mean the line change that resulted in the Drury, Prucha and Dawes combining for 2 goals and 4 assists?
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Sustainability.
...

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01-06-2009, 03:28 PM
  #86
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Well if we take their current pace and take the difference between that and the average of my projections (for guys who aren't already near that pace), we'd see:

Drury: from 22 to 27 (5 goals)
Zherdev: from 24 to 17 (3 goals)
Dawes: from 16 to 23 goals (7 goals)
Dubinsky: from 10 to 17 goals (7 goals)

Individually, that translates into smaller gains for those guys individually, but as a whole, the team gains 22 goals from forwards. That's a 10% increase from last year.

Additionally, I would argue, having an attack oriented style would ease the pressure on our D. Instead of sitting back and trying to fend off the other team's rush, we would be focused on turning it around and stopping it from happening at all. We have seen that for the most part our D doesn't stand up well under pressure, but they frequently don't have many options for an outlet pass because the forwards are so deep in our zone. Notice that when Z is on the ice, he's always ready to get out of the zone, and the D always have someone to pass to. He does an ok job backchecking,and having one guy who is ready to burst out makes the D on the other team think twice before pinching.
So you're arguing about 22 goals over 4 players, three of which you are asking to do something they've never done.

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01-06-2009, 03:29 PM
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...
One must start something in order to sustain it.

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01-06-2009, 03:30 PM
  #88
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So basically you're talking about levels that Callahan, Zherdev, Dawes, and Dubinsky have never sniffed in the NHL, a level Naslund has not reached since 2005-2006, a level that Drury has reached once in his career and Gomez who is two goals off your projection.
Yes.

First of all, I left Callahan where he is, because I think his game would translate into the same number of goals in both systems.

Secondly, Callahan, Zherdev, Dawes, and Dubinsky are all youjng players that are progressing. We darn well better hope that they're all going to exceed the goals scored they've achieved in their first few (and in some cases partial) seasons.

Thirdly, Vancouver and especially Columbus aren't exactly known for their free-wheeling offensive style.

Fourthly, this would be exactly the style in which Drury scored 30 and 37 in his two previous years before coming to the Rangers.

Would I be dead-on with those numbers? Of course not. But I think that the total is about right.

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01-06-2009, 03:30 PM
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So basically you're talking about levels that Callahan, Zherdev, Dawes, and Dubinsky have never sniffed in the NHL
For Callahan, Dawes, and Dubinsky, this is the first year when they are consistently being looked at as "go to" guys. They've never really sniffed much of anything at the NHL level.

Z was stuck in offensive wasteland Columbus (where he wasn't even playing with Nash).

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a level Naslund has not reached since 2005-2006
Ever since then, he was stuck in a super tight system where he didn't mesh with his frequent linemates, the Sedins.

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a level that Drury has reached once in his career and Gomez who is two goals off your projection.
Drury reached that in a season playing an up tempo system where his team attacked and scored on transition. Gomez' goal scoring is what we should be worried about, because unless he gets back to his 33 goal scoring form (which seems quite unlikely) he's really just a pure assist man.

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01-06-2009, 03:36 PM
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For Callahan, Dawes, and Dubinsky, this is the first year when they are consistently being looked at as "go to" guys. They've never really sniffed much of anything at the NHL level.
Then is it fair to ask them to surpass not only career best, but in the case of Dawes and Callahan, career totals in goals?



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Ever since then, he was stuck in a super tight system where he didn't mesh with his frequent linemates, the Sedins.
You mean the Sedins who both would have lead this team in scoring last season? It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that he's 35.


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Drury reached that in a season playing an up tempo system where his team attacked and scored on transition. Gomez' goal scoring is what we should be worried about, because unless he gets back to his 33 goal scoring form (which seems quite unlikely) he's really just a pure assist man.
And he's done it once. I will admit that I am disappointed in Drury's goal scoring.

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01-06-2009, 03:40 PM
  #91
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One must start something in order to sustain it.
Correlation =/= Causation

Need moar datas!

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01-06-2009, 03:41 PM
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One must start something in order to sustain it.
Like Dubinsky and Voros started back in October?
Sorry, I know where you're coming from, but the only consistent play we've had this year is from Zherdev and Staal.
I don't have much faith in these other guys.
I think there's a lack of motivation and this all goes back to the coaching, and also players feeling a little too secure in their jobs.
Drury for example, knows he's not going anywhere and plays like it.

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01-06-2009, 03:54 PM
  #93
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I think the bottom line is that I'm not sure what the difference between the style they're currently playing and the style everyone wants them to play. They skate up and down, the shoot, they do whatever. I guess they don't pressure as much, but perhaps the players they have can't keep the puck in the offensive zone for 60 seconds a shift. Perhaps they can't get to the loose pucks in front of the net. Perhaps they're not the best along the boards, or the grittiest in traffic, and this is what they have to play.
Two men pressuring the puck in the offensive zone. As opposed to one man running vague interference in front of the net while the other two forwards and the two Dmen are already setting up the box at blue line/in the neutral zone.

Stepping into passing lanes in the neutral zone to try to break back the other way as opposed to beginning to skate back into the defensive zone in order to set up a perimeter the moment that the offensive team hits their own blue line.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not advocating pinching at the point. I'm not advocating trying to play puck possession. I'm not advocating players basket hanging (or whatever the hockey equivalent is). I'm not even advocating a super physical forecheck. I want an up-tempo team that puts pressure on the opposition to generate transitional chances.

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01-06-2009, 03:58 PM
  #94
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So you're arguing about 22 goals over 4 players, three of which you are asking to do something they've never done.
22 goals is the difference between Edmonton's offense last season and Detroit's. If I could make that jump, I would.

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Then is it fair to ask them to surpass not only career best, but in the case of Dawes and Callahan, career totals in goals?
Neither of them has played a full season worth of games in any capacity, much less as go to guys.


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You mean the Sedins who both would have lead this team in scoring last season? It couldn't have anything to do with the fact that he's 35.
The Sedins are a two man show. Being the third wheel on that line doesn't seem like a recipe for goal scoring, when one of them is a playmaker and the other a finisher.



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And he's done it once.
Which indicates that he is capable of doing it, and in no way precludes him from approaching that performance again.

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01-06-2009, 04:00 PM
  #95
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Then is it fair to ask them to surpass not only career best, but in the case of Dawes and Callahan, career totals in goals?
Dawes is a 25-30 goal scorer in this league. That's his role - it's what the Rangers expect, it's what his minor league trajectory indicates and, if he doesn't provide it, he has no business in the league. Recent play would seem to indicate that we want cup and I are not crazy to expect the total, but I don't think he can get above 15-18 under the current system.





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And he's done it once. I will admit that I am disappointed in Drury's goal scoring.
As for Gomez, I don't expect 33 goals - but I do not think it's crazy to expect 25 goals and 50-60 assists from setting up the other guys for finishes.

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01-06-2009, 04:03 PM
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22 goals is the difference between Edmonton's offense last season and Detroit's. If I could make that jump, I would.
That doesn't tell the full story.



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Neither of them has played a full season worth of games in any capacity, much less as go to guys.
1) They're still not.

2) If they are is that fair to demand that of them?



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The Sedins are a two man show. Being the third wheel on that line doesn't seem like a recipe for goal scoring, when one of them is a playmaker and the other a finisher.
Still doesn't explain it. Especially for a player like Naslund. Especially because it's not as if there was a 40 scorer in the three of them.



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Which indicates that he is capable of doing it, and in no way precludes him from approaching that performance again.
Nothing precludes him from doing it again. But if you look at his career, that year is the exception, not the rule.

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01-06-2009, 04:05 PM
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Dawes is a 25-30 goal scorer in this league. That's his role - it's what the Rangers expect, it's what his minor league trajectory indicates and, if he doesn't provide it, he has no business in the league. Recent play would seem to indicate that we want cup and I are not crazy to expect the total, but I don't think he can get above 15-18 under the current system.







As for Gomez, I don't expect 33 goals - but I do not think it's crazy to expect 25 goals and 50-60 assists from setting up the other guys for finishes.

Dawes is not a 25-30 goal scorer until he does it a couple of times at least. How can you expect 25-30 goals when he hasn't scored 30 goals in his career?

Gomez scoring 25 would be nice. Unfortunately, he's only done that once.

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01-06-2009, 04:13 PM
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You mean the line changing that resulted in a 4-0 victory?

You mean the line change that resulted in the Drury, Prucha and Dawes combining for 2 goals and 4 assists?

If he changes line combos the ad hoc response is "Stop changing lines!"

If he doesn't its, "Do something! Why isn't XX playing??!!"

It will end when he's gone? Then get comfortable because he can likely miss the playoffs and still keep his job.

And really, you're going to point to Stan Fischler as the voice of reason?
i agree with you, but it does make sense that he should really maybe make subtle changes from here on in. you can't be changing in and out players with different game styles every night, the players will just never mesh because they can't interpret what each others next move is gunna be. i'm pretty sure that that is obvious to you and most fans out there. but i mean, yeah, it's one 4-0 victory against another slumping team, it doesn't mean these new line changes are a panacea to our current situation.

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01-06-2009, 04:17 PM
  #99
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A different system would improve our offense to an extent, but it would not change the fact that this is a poorly constructed roster and one of the least skilled and least talented teams in the NHL.

If you can forget about the attachments you have to your favorite team's players and look at things objectively, then what if you could trade our 12 forwards for any other team's 12 forwards (including age, contracts, injuries and all everything else included in the package), how many teams are there that you would reject? 4? 5? Maybe 6? Teams like the Islanders, basically, and there aren't many in today's NHL that actually are THAT bad.

And frankly, if you made the same offer with top six defenseman, again taking into account contracts and everything else, I think there is still a pretty big majority of teams that I would make that trade with. Once again, you have to forget about your bias to these players. I really like Marc Staal and Nik Zherdev, too, but you can't think about that in this kind of question.

Obviously, I wouldn't make the same kind of trade with Lundqvist. Maybe not even for Luongo, though that can be debated.

Point is, this team just doesn't have much talent, and it's poorly put together to boot. To expect them to score a lot is kind of dumb, and there are far better reasons to be unhappy with Renney than the system.

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01-06-2009, 04:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
Dawes is not a 25-30 goal scorer until he does it a couple of times at least. How can you expect 25-30 goals when he hasn't scored 30 goals in his career?
By that rationale, why would you ever give any kid any kind of offensive role? You would play your vets until they were 50 years old or until some kid magically scored 30 while playing 7 minutes a night on the fourth line.

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