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The draft lottery-Why such an odd system?

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01-07-2009, 09:40 AM
  #1
Mr Wentworth
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The draft lottery-Why such an odd system?

My team is in the "hunt" for the #1 pick, and I was curiuos how the lottery works.

What's all this sequence of numbers stuff?

Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

I teach 5th grade and asked my class (I'm paraphrasing), "In the NHL there are 30 teams. 14 do not make the playoffs. These teams go into a lottery system to determine who gets the #1 pick. (I took a minute to explain the draft here.) What system could we come up with so that the worse teams have a better shot at getting the #1 pick, as opposed to the team that just might've missed making the playoffs?"

Their answer:
14 teams don't make the playoffs.
The Canes are the worst team in the league, they get 14 balls into a lottery type of machine that one might see on the evening news.
The Caps are the second worst team. They get 13 balls.
The Lightning were the best team that didn't make the playoffs, they get one ball.

That system works. (At least to me it does.)

So, why this probability chart stuff?

(Yes, with my system my students came up with, it is possible to keep the rules of, 'can't move up more than four spots', 'only move down one...')

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01-07-2009, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
My team is in the "hunt" for the #1 pick, and I was curiuos how the lottery works.

What's all this sequence of numbers stuff?

Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

I teach 5th grade and asked my class (I'm paraphrasing), "In the NHL there are 30 teams. 14 do not make the playoffs. These teams go into a lottery system to determine who gets the #1 pick. (I took a minute to explain the draft here.) What system could we come up with so that the worse teams have a better shot at getting the #1 pick, as opposed to the team that just might've missed making the playoffs?"

Their answer:
14 teams don't make the playoffs.
The Canes are the worst team in the league, they get 14 balls into a lottery type of machine that one might see on the evening news.
The Caps are the second worst team. They get 13 balls.
The Lightning were the best team that didn't make the playoffs, they get one ball.

That system works. (At least to me it does.)

So, why this probability chart stuff?

(Yes, with my system my students came up with, it is possible to keep the rules of, 'can't move up more than four spots', 'only move down one...')
Bcause it gives a chance to the weaker teams to get the better pick?

Imagine if the best team not to make the playoff finishes with the 1st pick, and that the worst finishes with the 14th overall... wouldn'it suck or what?

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01-07-2009, 09:49 AM
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Well the lottery originated from the lockout season. The league didn't see it as fair to just give the first pick to the worst team from the last season played because they would have been given the first pick two years in a row (which would have landed Washington Crosby on top of Ovechkin). So they developed a system which included a formula involving how many first overalls a team had in the previous years, playoff appearances, etc.

I guess they liked the lottery idea so much, they kept it. It's a good system because it doesn't guarantee a team who tanks to get the first overall (a la Pens in 84). But as a Flyer fan, I thought it sucked how the Flyers didn't get the first overall the year we sucked more than ever. How does a team that is 15 points behind the next worst team not get the first overall?

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01-07-2009, 09:49 AM
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Probably so they can better control the percentages. The way it is now the worst team has a 50% chance (almost) of getting the #1 pick, isn't it like 25% they win the lottery and 24% a team out of the top 5 wins it? They may have designed it to get very specific chances for each rank.

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01-07-2009, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyguy View Post
Well the lottery originated from the lockout season. The league didn't see it as fair to just give the first pick to the worst team from the last season played because they would have been given the first pick two years in a row (which would have landed Washington Crosby on top of Ovechkin). So they developed a system which included a formula involving how many first overalls a team had in the previous years, playoff appearances, etc.

I guess they liked the lottery idea so much, they kept it. It's a good system because it doesn't guarantee a team who tanks to get the first overall (a la Pens in 84). But as a Flyer fan, I thought it sucked how the Flyers didn't get the first overall the year we sucked more than ever. How does a team that is 15 points behind the next worst team not get the first overall?
Actually, I believe it's been around since the early/mid 90's after a string of bad seasons by the Sens (where they were rumoured to loose on purpose)

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01-07-2009, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by H2NY View Post
Actually, I believe it's been around since the early/mid 90's after a string of bad seasons by the Sens (where they were rumoured to loose on purpose)
I think there was something with the Pens too.

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01-07-2009, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyguy View Post
Well the lottery originated from the lockout season. The league didn't see it as fair to just give the first pick to the worst team from the last season played because they would have been given the first pick two years in a row (which would have landed Washington Crosby on top of Ovechkin). So they developed a system which included a formula involving how many first overalls a team had in the previous years, playoff appearances, etc.

I guess they liked the lottery idea so much, they kept it. It's a good system because it doesn't guarantee a team who tanks to get the first overall (a la Pens in 84). But as a Flyer fan, I thought it sucked how the Flyers didn't get the first overall the year we sucked more than ever. How does a team that is 15 points behind the next worst team not get the first overall?

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01-07-2009, 10:13 AM
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I think there was something with the Pens too.
I am pretty sure this was actually put into place(in some measure) after the Pens were widely suspected of completely tanking their team to get Mario Lemieux back in the early 80's. And it was the Devils who were the runners up in tanking that year, they got Kirk Muller.

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01-07-2009, 10:17 AM
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I think there was something with the Pens too.
and they're both at it again this year. disgusting people.

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01-07-2009, 10:17 AM
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This system works, it gives motivation to the owners and front offices of teams not to remain perennial suck-fests. If a crappy owner who didn't care knew he could neglect his team and allow them to suck while receiving a very high overall pick year after year, it may be a path he choses to take.

I give you the Detroit Lions of the past 10 years..... annual crap, top 5 draft picks for as far as the eye can see. Their reward for all their hard work: The biggest donut the NFL has ever seen.

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01-07-2009, 10:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
My team is in the "hunt" for the #1 pick, and I was curiuos how the lottery works.

What's all this sequence of numbers stuff?

Is that the best system the NHL can come up with?

I teach 5th grade and asked my class (I'm paraphrasing), "In the NHL there are 30 teams. 14 do not make the playoffs. These teams go into a lottery system to determine who gets the #1 pick. (I took a minute to explain the draft here.) What system could we come up with so that the worse teams have a better shot at getting the #1 pick, as opposed to the team that just might've missed making the playoffs?"

Their answer:
14 teams don't make the playoffs.
The Canes are the worst team in the league, they get 14 balls into a lottery type of machine that one might see on the evening news.
The Caps are the second worst team. They get 13 balls.
The Lightning were the best team that didn't make the playoffs, they get one ball.

That system works. (At least to me it does.)

So, why this probability chart stuff?

(Yes, with my system my students came up with, it is possible to keep the rules of, 'can't move up more than four spots', 'only move down one...')
Where were you when I was in school?

Yeah, Lemieux pretty much sparked the lottery after the tanking rumors that surrounded the Penguins.

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01-07-2009, 10:23 AM
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i like where this thread is headed

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01-07-2009, 10:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Invisible Poster View Post
...
Your system would only give the last place team around a 13% chance to have the first overall. The NHL likely wanted the last place team to have more than a 13% chance but less than a 100% chance to get the first overall. So they created a formula which would give the last place team the league's desired probability of them getting first overall. If it's any consolation, I'm sure an idea similar to that of your 5th graders was tabled at some point but ultimately rejected.

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01-07-2009, 10:36 AM
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I still think the 2005 lottery was such BS.

They didn't want to base it on the previous year's standings, yet Washington was given only one ball because they already got the 1st overall pick the year before, but everyone else who drafted high that year got 3 balls. So hypocritical.

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01-07-2009, 10:43 AM
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And this is why 5th graders don't run the world.

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01-07-2009, 10:45 AM
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I'm not sure of the exact percentages, but I believe it's close to what your kids came up with. However, there are two rules that make it so that the worst teams stay low and the better teams stay high. The first is that a team can move only one place back, meaning if TB is the worst team and they do not win the 1st pick, they are automatically assigned the 2nd pick and the 3rd is then selected. The second is you can only move up 5 places, meaning only the bottom 5 teams have a chance win the lottery. So essentially there are only a maximum of 5 teams that can win each pick.

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01-07-2009, 10:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sensfan83 View Post
Your system would only give the last place team around a 13% chance to have the first overall. The NHL likely wanted the last place team to have more than a 13% chance but less than a 100% chance to get the first overall. So they created a formula which would give the last place team the league's desired probability of them getting first overall. If it's any consolation, I'm sure an idea similar to that of your 5th graders was tabled at some point but ultimately rejected.

The discussion was a small endavour into probability. We didn't get into percentages (since it isn't something I'm supposed to teach them at this grade level.) And, I never crunched the numbers (not to imply I doubt your numbers.)


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Originally Posted by Felonious Python View Post
Where were you when I was in school?

Yeah, Lemieux pretty much sparked the lottery after the tanking rumors that surrounded the Penguins.
I don't know. It depends on how old you are.

I remember it being around since the early 90's as well. I remember the Isles "won" the draft in 2000 or so and took DP (over Heatly)

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01-07-2009, 11:01 AM
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Learn your history people. It began after the Sens really took the usual shinanigans to a extreme degree in the . . . of all things . . . Daigle draft. Daigle should have been punishment enough. The lottery resulted solely from that incident and was put into place just after. The Pens did play some games with their roster toward the end of the season in the year Mario was drafted as did the other teams in the running. But no worse than what the Caps did in sitting their all star goalie Kolzig for a nice part of the last month in the year that they tried to get into positions to, and did indeed, draft Ovechkin. I never hear anything about that here. And the team that drafted Mario was legitimately and seriously bad. The Cap team had a fire sale before playing games at the end of the year with their roster to get into lottery position to get Ovechkin. Obviously the lottery put into place because of Daigle did not change anything from the Mario draft as the exact same thing and worse went on in 2004 with Ovechkin.

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01-07-2009, 11:09 AM
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Learn your history people. It began after the Sens really took the usual shinanigans to a extreme degree in the . . . of all things . . . Daigle draft. Daigle should have been punishment enough. The lottery resulted solely from that incident and was put into place just after. The Pens did play some games with their roster toward the end of the season in the year Mario was drafted as did the other teams in the running. But no worse than what the Caps did in sitting their all star goalie Kolzig for a nice part of the last month in the year that they tried to get into positions to, and did indeed, draft Ovechkin. I never hear anything about that here. And the team that drafted Mario was legitimately and seriously bad. The Cap team had a fire sale before playing games at the end of the year with their roster to get into lottery position to get Ovechkin. Obviously the lottery put into place because of Daigle did not change anything from the Mario draft as the exact same thing and worse went on in 2004 with Ovechkin.
To be fair, Sebastien Charpentier went a solid 0-6-0 in that ending stretch for the Caps.

And the Pens squeaked out a win against WAS on the last game of the year to go ahead of them by a point. I don;t know how they were able to get anything by the All-Star performance by Matthew Yeats on that night.


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01-07-2009, 11:22 AM
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Learn your history people. It began after the Sens really took the usual shinanigans to a extreme degree in the . . . of all things . . . Daigle draft. Daigle should have been punishment enough. The lottery resulted solely from that incident and was put into place just after.
Bingo.

Quote:
The Pens did play some games with their roster toward the end of the season in the year Mario was drafted as did the other teams in the running.
As a Jets fan, I was super-happy about this. We got Randy Carlyle a year or two removed from his Norris trophy season at the deadline. In exchange, the Pens got our first rounder and "future considerations", which turned out to be Moe Mantha.... but after the season ended.

I believe Jersey tried some similar shenanigans to get to #1 in 1984 to get Mario, but don't recall those details.

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01-07-2009, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by flyguy View Post
Well the lottery originated from the lockout season. The league didn't see it as fair to just give the first pick to the worst team from the last season played because they would have been given the first pick two years in a row (which would have landed Washington Crosby on top of Ovechkin). So they developed a system which included a formula involving how many first overalls a team had in the previous years, playoff appearances, etc.

I guess they liked the lottery idea so much, they kept it. It's a good system because it doesn't guarantee a team who tanks to get the first overall (a la Pens in 84). But as a Flyer fan, I thought it sucked how the Flyers didn't get the first overall the year we sucked more than ever. How does a team that is 15 points behind the next worst team not get the first overall?
I don't think you got one thing correct in that post.

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01-07-2009, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by jamiebez View Post
Bingo.


As a Jets fan, I was super-happy about this. We got Randy Carlyle a year or two removed from his Norris trophy season at the deadline. In exchange, the Pens got our first rounder and "future considerations", which turned out to be Moe Mantha.... but after the season ended.

I believe Jersey tried some similar shenanigans to get to #1 in 1984 to get Mario, but don't recall those details.
Pens got Lemuix-Ended with 38 points.
Devils got Kirk Muller-They ended with 41 points.

I think it is accepted the Devils attempted to tank as well.

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01-07-2009, 11:31 AM
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To be fair, Sebastien Charpentier went a solid 0-6-0 in that ending stretch for the Caps.

And the Pens squeaked out a win against WAS on the last game of the year to go ahead of them by a point. I don;t know how they were able to get anything by the All-Star performance by Matthew Yeats on that night.


What are you talking about? Pittsburgh finished 03-04 one point BELOW the Caps. The Penguins were the worst team in the league. The order pre-lottery was
1. Pittsburgh
2. Chicago
3. Washington

You are also neglecting the fact that Matt Yeats picked up a win against Pittsburgh the week before that meeting on the last day of the year.


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01-07-2009, 11:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyguy View Post
Well the lottery originated from the lockout season. The league didn't see it as fair to just give the first pick to the worst team from the last season played because they would have been given the first pick two years in a row (which would have landed Washington Crosby on top of Ovechkin). So they developed a system which included a formula involving how many first overalls a team had in the previous years, playoff appearances, etc.

I guess they liked the lottery idea so much, they kept it. It's a good system because it doesn't guarantee a team who tanks to get the first overall (a la Pens in 84). But as a Flyer fan, I thought it sucked how the Flyers didn't get the first overall the year we sucked more than ever. How does a team that is 15 points behind the next worst team not get the first overall?
I believe that the NHL Draft Lottery is an old old wooden ship, used during the civil war era.

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01-07-2009, 11:36 AM
  #25
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What are you talking about? Pittsburgh finished 03-04 one point BELOW the Caps. The Penguins were the worst team in the league. The order pre-lottery was
1. Pittsburgh
2. Chicago
3. Washington
You're right, ESPN didn't list the ties in the box score so it looked that Pens were 1 behind WAS. My bad.

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